Testicularly Challenged Bookies '21/22

[FortescueFotheringhamSmyth]

I was going to put up my idea of the odds for other Premiership markets, but I've had a look at Oddschecker. Prices going up for other Premiership markets with a few bookies.

It's annoying that McBookie and Ladbrokes/Coral are not on Oddschecker, but their prices don't take many clicks to find. McBookie are surprisingly not up yet on Premiership markets, other than outright winner.

A tip of the hat to SkyBet, who've chalked up a "Without Rangers" market  🕸🕷 in the hope of enticing optimistic Spoonburners & Sheepshaggers. 1/33 Celtic, 10 Aberdeen, 18 Hibernian, 33 Hearts, 150/1+ the rest. Top marks for attempting that. It should be free money for SkyBet. Nobody's going to tie-up their cash for 9 months backing Celtic for a 3% return. (There are easier ways to launder money.) I can think of a few Spoonburners who'll be tempted by 18/1. The way things are going politically, some sort of draconian action by UEFA on chants, banners & the like isn't impossible. Not likely the SFA will be roped in on that, but it's getting to the point where the possibility of points deductions or expulsions for that type of behaviour needs to be factored in.

Skybet also the only bookie to chalk up on the "Without the Old Firm" market. Sheep the correct favourite in my view (& everyone else's, I hope), but 11/10 is a little short. 5/2 Hibs, which might attract a few wagers as big as SkyBet will allow. 6 Hearts, 18 The Double Winners, 18 'Well (which is flattering, given the current squad), 25 Livi, 25 St.M, 33 United, 66 Ross, 100 Dee.

SkyBet also have a "Top Three Finish" list, which isn't precisely the same as "Without The Old Firm "... but it's pretty close. 11/10 Sheep, 9/4 Hibs, 6 Hearts, 18 The Double Winners, 18 'Well, 22 St.M, 25 Livi, 25 United, 40 Ross, 66 Dundee.

Six weeks ago, I reckoned Dundee & Ross would take out 70% to 75% of the Wooden Spoon market and suggested 11/8 Dee, 9/4 County. Both look in a stronger position now - more so Ross - so it's justifiable that their odds are longer. Big difference of opinion on Ross, with Bet365 having them as 2/1 faves and SkyBet going 10/3. Betfred go 11/4. Dundee are generally favourites at 9/4 or 5/2. Fair enough prices about both. With the clouds over Tannadice resembling those over Sigourney Weaver's apartment block before the Ghostbusters went in, I'm tempted by the 6/1 United, but the current squad is better than the odds suggest. 7/1 Livi, which looks a mite short, even though their form after the mid-winter winning streak tailed-off badly. 10/1 St.Mirren, which looks a tad long. 12/1 Motherwell, 18/1 The Double Winners (tempting), 25/1 Hearts, 100/1 Hibs, 150/1 Aberdeen. It's 2,500/1 Celtic and 3,500/1 Rangers - both well worth £1 if points deductions for "offensive" fan behaviour count. Very unlikely, but a 1,000/1+ chance?

SkyBet's compiler had a busy evening. He's (She's? Can't assume anyone's gender these days) chalked up on a "Bottom Two Finish" market too. 11/10 Dundee, 13/8 Ross, 5/2 Livi, 5/2 Arabs, 3 Buddies, 4 'Well, 11/2 The Double Winners, 10 Hearts, 40 Hibs, 50 Sheep.

"Top Six Finish" also sees Bet365 and BetFred join Sky. 1/8 Sheep, 2/9 Hibs, 5/4 Hearts with Fred (but 4/6 with Sky!), 6/4 The Double Winners, 2/1 'Well, 11/4 St.M, 3 United, 7 Dundee, 8 Ross.

"Bottom Six Finish" is just Sky and Bet365 at the minute  1/12 Dundee, 1/9 Ross, 2/9 United, 1/4 Livi, 4/11 St.M, 1/2 'Well, 4/6 The Double Winners with Bet365 (but 1/2 with Sky), 11/10 Hearts, 9/2 Hibs, 6 Aberdeen, 66 Celtic, 100 Rangers.

Sky go 8/15 United and 11/8 the Dark Blues in a "Top Dundee Team" season matchbet.

Sky also have a "Top Edinburgh Team" season matchbet: 4/9 Hibs, 13/8 Hearts.

Sky offer 20/1 Rangers to repeat their unbeaten League season. It's 33/1 Celtic to go unbeaten in the League.

 

 

Edited July 15, 2021 by FortescueFotheringhamSmyth
Typo

[FortescueFotheringhamSmyth]

McBookie have found a moderately impressive set of cojones and chalked up the lower divisions.

Well done to them!

CHAMPIONSHIP:- 

Evens Kilmarnock, 5 Accies, 11/2 Caley Thistle, 8 Pars, 9 Partick, 9 Raith, 28 Ayr, 50 Arbroath, 50 Morton, 50 Doonhamers. A smidgeon miserly at 1/5 the odds for a top three place, but anything less than 125% is a very fair book for a layer brave enough to be first chalking up at his stage of pre-season. As I've said previously, I made Killie odds-on - at least 4/5, maybe as short as 8/11 - expected them to be a shade of odds-against and I will be having a reasonable bet on them. I'll be waiting to see if someone goes 11/10 and optimistically hoping for 5/4. I don't see anyone else having the potential to reach 70 points. Killie should at least get close to 80. I'd've had Pars narrowly 2nd-best at 6/1 and Caley slightly shorter than Accies, at 7s and 8s respectively. Then I was looking at 10 Raith, 12 Partick and 20 Ayr. Ayr might be a fair each way bet at 28/1, with some doubts over everyone's finances.

LEAGUE ONE:-

9/4 Cove, 5/2 Falkirk, 5 Alloa, 5 Q.Park, 10 Airdrie, 14 Montrose, 22 E.Fife, 40 Clyde, 40 Dumbarton, 40 Peterhead. I'd've switched the top two, had Montrose a mite longer and Dumbarton shorter. I'd have said Queen's Park's chances of winning the flag are less than 17%, but I wouldn't be inclined to take any risks with them if I were a bookie, given the potential for cash suddenly appearing. I won't be investing on this division. Falkirk will be going in an uninspiring ante-post acca.

LEAGUE TWO:-

Evens Kelty, 11/2 Embra, 11/2 Stirling, 9 Forfar, 10 Elgin, 10 Stranraer, 16 Stenny, 50 Albion, 50 Annan, 50 Cowden. As stated above, I'd have Kelty odds-on. I make them shorter than Kilmarnock should be for the Championship. I think we're looking at at least 25 wins and they should realistically be aiming for 85 points. Given the upheaval at Embra, I might have put Forfar 2nd-favs in this. It would've been close. I think Stirling are much too short. I quite like Stenny each way at that 16/1 and I make Annan a lot shorter than the Wee Rovers or the Blue Brazil, even given Cowden's two decent displays in the League Cup.

 

 

 

Edited July 15, 2021 by FortescueFotheringhamSmyth

[D Angelo Barksdale]

Good work @FortescueFotheringhamSmyth

Looking at a short priced acca of Dundee bottom 2 finish (the weakest promoted side for years), Killie and Kelty, plus a West Brom top 6 finish at 5/6.

I'll probably have Falkirk in an acca too, they've got to come good at some point, and the bookies have shat it from Cove, far too short.

Can't see much value, or any good angles in the Premiership.