Testicularly Challenged Bookies '21/22

[FortescueFotheringhamSmyth]

I've just spotted this section of the forum. What a mine of information it is!

Anyhow, I've just had a glance through some bookies' prices for the 2021/22 season. They're not exactly behaving like lemmings or gadarene swine in a clamour to chalk up ante-post prices on Scottish football. They've only a Premiership outright market just now. No each-way betting in that, so it's simply a match bet between 4/6 Rangers and 6/4 Celtic. Those prices seem an accurate assessment. 

Contrast that to England. They've bundles of markets as far down as League Two down there. The 6-team play-offs for the promotion place from the National League / Conference/ Alliance / Div.5 / Whatever haven't begun. Notts County, historically a bigger club than any in League Two, could win those and get "investment." So you can see why the bookies are happy to lay prices on teams currently in the field. It's not as bad as them offering skinny Europa League prices and hoping a few big boys drop down from the Champions League, but it's in the same ballpark. 

I used to know two senior football odds compilers at big firms. One was allowed to chalk up early, on his own initiative. The other was instructed to wait and go for largely "industry standard" prices - at the UK's biggest (and, by that stage, most spineless) firm. Neither firm employed a Scottish specialist.

I would've thought that the SPFL divisions would precisely fit the criteria bookies like these days. A bookie is usually far happier taking bets on a coin toss at 5/6, the casting of a die at 4/1, or the numbers racket at 600/1 than he is if he has to price up things with random variables. Many SPFL clubs have few players signed and any bookie chalking up will be doing so on two factors: size of club and perceived likelihood of splurging in the transfer market. Many fans would be keen to back their clubs for relatively small "interest bet" stakes at this stage, if they were able to. They might be less keen in 8 weeks' time, if a divisional rival has splashed the cash. Any insider knowledge of a Colin Weir Mk.II having won the EuroMillions jackpot this evening and intending to invest in Livi, Clyde or Annan isn't going to cost bookies much money. They won't allow anything bigger than moderately sized bets. In any case, insider knowledge that maybe Cove Rangers intend to massively increase their budget for next season is of less value when either Queen's Park or Falkirk might decide to go for broke too. Insider info mid-season is usually more valuable.

On that one SPFL market they've been arsed to draw up, Ross, Dundee and the Arabs are all joint-longest price at 1,000/1 with three of the four bookies currently taking bets. The other has the Arabs much shorter. A "To Finish Bottom" market won't generally correlate precisely to an "Outright" market, but I'd have expected inevitable favourites Dundee and strong 2nd-faves Ross to take out around 75% of a 120% book on the Wooden Spoon. General perception is that the Arabs have felt the pinch more than most during Covid, but parity with the other pair would be hard to justify as things stand. I'd expect them to be around 7/1 (same price as St.Mirren) with Dee maybe 11/8 and Ross 9/4 if anyone chalked up now. It will be interesting to see to what extent the first compiler to go up buys the St.Johnstone hype. I'm not knocking Sainties: 3rd-best team in Scotland since Hogmanay and they fully deserved their cups, but any club with their budget is prone to having players plundered and coaches will have learned a few things from watching their rise. (Maybe even Jack Ross) If anyone was to call a silly price just now - say, 16/1+ - I'd be on.

I can't say I'm waiting for any prices in anticipation of a bookie making a rick. Any of Killie, Pars or the Harry Wraggs might spend £££ in the Championship. Clearly the same goes for Queen's Park, Falkirk & Cove in League One, so it's just about possible to empathise with bookies being cautious. Kelty will likely sluice home in the basement and should be odds on.

Fred used to chalk up early when he sponsored the League Cup, but I doubt he'll be sticking his neck out when he's not going to get much publicity for doing it. Looking at some fairly outrageous sets of fixtures, there's less I fancy in the group stage betting than usual.

Anyone fancying anything at likely generous odds shouldn't be advertising the fact on here anyway.

 

[FortescueFotheringhamSmyth]

10 days on. Still nobody poking anything above the trenches that might get shot off.

Fair play to Bet365 for chalking up on the opening Premiership games within two hours of the fixtures coming out. Not likely to make too many mistakes there, but a welcome show of confidence from D€ni$e's lads.

1/5 Rangers, 10 Livi, 6 draw.

6/5 Dundee, 23/10 St.Mirren, 23/10 draw.

23/10 Ross County, 6/5 The Double Winners, 23/10 draw.

4 Hearts, 4/7 Celtic, 10/3 draw.

8/13 Sheep, 5 Arabs, 13/5 draw.

9/5 'Well, 6/4 Spoonburners, 23/10 draw.

Got to edge towards 'Well at that price. Only 1 win v. Hibs in 4 last term and Hibs' 2nd half at Fir Park was arguably their best 45 minutes of the season, but 9/5 looks big. 23/10 Ross might look big in six weeks' time too.

They've also chalked up on over/under 2.5 goals. Under 2.5 favoured in all four non-Glesca fixtures.

 

**EDIT** 24 hours on, Billy Hill and Sky have chalked up. Only one sizable difference: Sky go 29/20 Dundee, 8/5 St.Mirren. The 'Dee price looks worth taking. Bet365 now have their usual range of team performance markets up for all 6 games, but no "1st Goalscorer" or other player performance markets... for obvious reasons.

**EDIT** I've idly lobbed £50 each at 'Well and 'Dee @ 19/10 and 29/20. I like how Boyle's have gone best price both teams in Gers v Livi - 2/9 and 14/1. I doubt there are many Bears near their Dundalk HQ and Irish punters are presumably unlikely to pile on Rangers, while some of the Celtic-minded brigade might fancy €10 on Livi at 14s.

Edited June 19, 2021 by FortescueFotheringhamSmyth
Added information.

[FortescueFotheringhamSmyth]

Bill Hill playing "Brave Sir Robin" and pushing the Romish Ragamuffins Relief Fund XI out to 13/8.

There's £153 up for grabs at 2.82 on Betfair.

Betway still have the Harland and Wolff Works XI at 4/6.

Still no other markets on the Premiership, nothing at all on the other divisions and nothing on the League Cup, which starts in nine days' time.

[FortescueFotheringhamSmyth]

The arb didn't last long. Betway cut the Harland & Wolff Works XI to 8/15.

4/7 the best you'll get about the title staying south of the Clyde now.

[FortescueFotheringhamSmyth]

Three of the leeches have got around to chalking up the League Cup outright... though McBookie haven't, which is odd, as BetVictor have.

13/8 Rangers (Sky. Vic cautious enough to go 11/8)

2/1 Celtic with all three.

10 Sheep with all three.

12 Spoonburners (Vic).

25 The Double Winners (Vic. 14s with Sky and 18s with Bill Hill)

25 Hearts (Sky. 16 Vic, 22 Bill)

33 St.Mirren, Motherwell with all three.

40 Arabs (Vic), Livi (Sky, Bill)

50 Dundee, Ross with all three.

66 Killie (Vic)

100 Accies (Vic)

150/1+ the rest. 

Have to note Queen's Park being 125/1 with Sky and 150/1 with Bill, which is the same price they have for Championship stragglers. Vic goes 750/1.

With "provincials"- in Recordspeak - having nicked 7 of the last 20 editions, the Erse Cheek prices seem realistic, but I'd say there's a higher chance of one of the pair winning this than those odds represent.

**No group betting up yet**

**Still no match prices either**

Edited July 5, 2021 by FortescueFotheringhamSmyth

[FortescueFotheringhamSmyth]

I put my prices for the groups on the main League Cup thread when the draw was made at the end of May, before the fixtures were confirmed. I've done well in group betting on this in the past, but the draw and fixtures look to have made things difficult this time around.

Anyhow, this is what I reckon the prices should be...

 

GROUP A.

I see no reason to change my prices of five weeks ago:

2/7 Hearts, 9/2 Caley, 8 Cove, 16 Peterhead, 33 Stirling.

Newcastle United won the F.A. Cup three times when John McCririck was a schoolboy at Harrow. He apparently backed the Magpies to win the F.A. Cup every season from when he left school until his death two years ago today. He never collected. A Hearts supporter of my acquaintance was born on October 28th 1962 - the day Nikita Khrushchev agreed to withdraw Soviet missiles from Cuba. 24 hours earlier, Hearts had withdrawn the League Cup from Hampden after a 1-0 win over Killie. My acquaintance has not backed the Jambos for the League Cup every year since he was born, but he'd have collected exactly the same number of times as McCririck if he had.

The Jambos aren't throwing money about but they should win this section comfortably. They have home advantage against both Caley and Cove. They ended Caley's season 10 weeks ago at Tynie, going 3-0 up within half an hour of a match Caley had to win to keep their play-off chances alive. They open at Balmoor, where Rory McAllister despatched them a few years back, but Peterhead aren't the same attacking force they were then.

The natives seem restless at Caley Thistle. That six-game spring winning streak was surprising at the time and soon petered out. Dodds is not a popular appointment. Keatings, Mackay D. & McKay B. shipped out. I like McKay W. and Gardyne, who should have a month & a flag dedicated to his sexual pecadilloes, but they've not improved the starting XI. A bye on opening weekend, followed by the two lower league sides at home, but they've then to travel to Cove and Hearts. 

Cove seem to have kept about the same budget as last term, but they've not played much football. The colourful Mr. Vigurs and Draper in from Ross but still short of support for Megginson. Peterhead seem to have done no more than exchange like for like and will likely struggle again. Stirling have just lost arguably their best player.

I'll not be putting Hearts in any group accas at silly odds, but I won't be backing any of the others to spring a shock.

 

GROUP B.

I had the Arabs in at 1/3 for this in May, with Arbroath 11/2, both E.Fife & Kelty on 10/1 and Elgin 20s. I'd change that significantly now.  

I'd now go: 4/7 United, 10/3 Arbroath, 7 Kelty, 10 E.Fife, 33 Elgin.

I don't think I can use the word "goatf**k" in the same sentence as "Arabs" without being yellow carded for racial stereotyping (see well-known Siouxsie & the Banshees lyric!) but things do not look set fair at Tannadice and there looks to be a chance of an implosion at United. Tam appears a decent coach and may get them through choppy waters, but I'm likely to be tempted by anything bigger than 5/1 for the wooden spoon in the Premiership. Charlie Mulgrew the only signing. I'd be inclined to believe he's still well up to Premiership top-six standard, but he's back here to wind-down his career. It will be interesting to see what odds the bookies chalk up for Friday's TV game at Kelty, where they obviously look vulnerable, having only won 1-0 at home to a weaker Kelty side at this stage last year. Home advantage v. Arbroath in Round #3 will help, but they finish at East Fife, who papped them out in a decider at Tannadice two years ago.

Not too much activity at Casa Bunnet, but Arbroath have signed the once highly rated Dylan Paterson from Bo'ness after a friendly last week. They will be well up for next week's trip to Tannadice. They have the two Kingdom sides at home. 

Kelty? I've no time for Gretna Mk.II and it's arguably crazy that a League Two side should be so short in the betting. Kevin Thomson has clearly been given a budget that should see them slice through the basement. Kevin Cardle and Jordon Forster maybe less surprising arrivals than Jamie Barjonas, whom I rated quite highly at Rangers, but they shouldn't be at that level.

I like East Fife's signings, though McGuigan arrived from Stenny then immediately retired. League One looks to have too many teams spending more £££ than they can afford, so the promotion play-offs will be beyond E.Fife, but they might go well in this section and I may have a small wager at big odds. Elgin have suspended training due to a positive Covid-19 test and have lost Bronsky and Wilson. Given the huge number of ridiculous precedents for draconian measures against such miscreants, Kane Hester may be on holiday in one of The Windsor Hotel Group's flagship Bar L apartments when his match fixing trial comes up and his mind might not be in the right place.

 

GROUP C.

The annual group with two Premiership teams involves the two top flight clubs rated least likely to retain that status. As in Group A, the top seeds have home advantage against both their main rivals. In May, I reckoned very slight odds-on the Highlanders for this, with the 'Dee at 11/8 and Montrose at 9/1. The fixtures have increased County's advantage but I see no reason to alter the prices about any of the three rags.

I'd go: 8/11 Ross, 13/8 Dundee, 9 Montrose, 20 Forfar, 25 Brora.

The angry & aghast coupons of the assembled teuchtery at the appointment of the seemingly retired Ron Atkinson as manager are now displaying begrudging acceptance. The arrival of Alan Minter and Hector Camacho brings fighting spirit and the likely signing of Israel Folau adds pace & power. Malky has impressively high-level contacts and the squad is shaping up. They've just signed an extremely promising Aussie of Peruvian heritage, who looks exotic and who used to play for Sydney's main Jewish club... which suggests Malky might be trying too hard. I'd guess their (unpublished) price for relegation is lengthening. An opener at Forfar isn't likely to be too testing and Brora probably aren't good enough to trouble them at Dudgeon Park - Hearts win or not. Home advantage v. Dundee and Montrose will be handy. Since making a hames of defending their trophy in 2016, they've skooshed through the groups impressively.

Dundee haven't produced the chequebook yet. Nadir Ciftci was last week's rumour, Aron Gunnarsson (spotted in a Dundee McD's with McPake) is today's. Signings look OK. Not many departing. Two Angus opponents isn't ideal.

Montrose not been signing wholesale either. Petrie still in the hot seat after several rumours of departure. They strike me as a well-set-up side that will play to their mark and not often get turned over by inferior opponents (though losses to Elgin & Stirling in this last year undermine that view) but who should be two-nilled by top flight sides. Forfar haven't made any significant signings and I don't see Brora's band of Hielan Part-Time All Stars being good enough.

 

GROUP D.

Alloa have maybe invested a wee bit more than I'd reckoned, but I generally stick by my May prices here.

2/5 Livi, 11/4 Raith, 8 Alloa, 33 Cowden, 50 Brechin.

Livi have won all 4 group games in this competition for each of the last 4 years. They switch from the south zone to the north this year. A fair turnover this summer: Ambrose, Emmanuel-Thomas, Robinson & Guthrie the regular starters shipping out; McCrorie & Serrano ending their loans. The replacements look an eclectic bunch. I'm confident Martindale will knock them into shape. They open with a gimme at Brechin, have midweek off, then go to Alloa. The likely decider is v. Raith at Almondvale in Round #4. They made hard work of despatching Rovers in the Scottish Cup 3 months ago.

Losing Regan Hendry is a huge blow to Raith, but it was hardly unexpected. Only lost a couple of other starters though. Replacements look decent. Open at Cowden, then home to Brechin, so should be off to the Tony M with 6 points on the board. Have Alloa at home last game, which should still have something riding on it. Alloa have decided to give Conor Sammon a final payday, which is nice of them. I've liked King when I've seen him but he has an iffy CV. They have a fair record in this since the groups were revived. I can't see any of the top three dropping points against either the Blue Brazil, who've signed some OK players (and one not so OK one) but should be targeting 9th in League Two, or Brechin.

 

GROUP E.

The annual Premiership-free group has become two Premiership-free groups, but this is by far the hardest section to call. The three contenders were berthed in divisions that were in a reverse echelon to what tradition and size of club suggest last term. The trio will likely be back in their natural order in a couple of seasons' time. With an even fixture list, no earthshattering signings and Bairns fans underwhelmed about the new gaffer & transfer activity, I'm standing by my May prices.

5/4 Accies, 7/4 Ayr, 11/4 Falkirk, 25 Embra, 40 Albion.

In spite of a dire win-loss record for a Premiership club, Accies have managed to escape their group 3 times in 5 years, even though they've lost to Annan twice, Queen's Park, Stranraer and Albion Rovers. Two months on from relegation, the squad doesn't look massively inferior, but pinning your hopes on a lad signed from Stirling Albion isn't a common promotion masterplan in the Championship. They open at Edinburgh on Friday, which may be tricky, even with City having culled the squad the week before last. They have Falkirk away and Ayr at home.

Ayr have qualified for the last-16 four times in five years, compiling a 16-4 win-loss record. Signing half the Morton squad is an odd tactic, but I suppose Hopkin knows them well. Not much of an exodus, though losing McCowan for nothing is irksome. I think they'll go OK in the league and having the League Two pair in the opening two games should help the team here. A week off before visiting Accies and finish at home to Falkirk. I think one or two bookies will go a fair bit bigger than 7/4 and I may well be on.

Bairns fans are greetin' but the signings look up to scratch to me - at least for a normal League One season, but maybe not for one with so many clubs "investing" in players' benevolent funds. An encouraging schedule: bye to start, then two home games v. Albion and Accies.

Difficult to see the basement pair featuring. Naysmith's late cull at Edinburgh has caught folk unawares, but the replacements arriving suggest the budget remains healthy. I've no idea what's going on with Meadowbank, but they're used to Ferry Road - even if playing Friday nights can be awkward. (Why do so few Hibbies - or Jambos - pop in?) Albion will be concentrating on 9th or better in the league. New blue chip signing Charlie Reilly was well-regarded, but they look short on talent and depth.

 

GROUP F.

A "fish in a barrel" job for Motherwell. I had the two queens as joint-2nd in my list at draw time, expecting the chequebook to come out at Lesser Hampden, but the Spiders are all over the shop as a club just now.

1/4 Motherwell, 11/2 Q.o.t.S, 10 Airdrie, 12 Q.Park, 33 Annan.

'Well back in the group stage after a year off. Their only 90-minute loss in this was to Rangers five years ago. Apart from a shoot-out defeat to Stranraer, they've won every other game in normal time. Slightly concerned about a fair exodus of regular starters - Gallagher, Campbell, Long, Cole - and I'm not convinced by the newbies, but this is a gimme of a group. If I'd done the fixtures, I'd've sent them to Airdrie for the opener, but that's not until Round #4. (A friendly on Saturday v. Millwall should be good acclimatisation for facing both Airdrie and Section B.) They don't appear until next Wednesday, when they face Queen's Park - at Firhill, I assume. Then it's the Doonhamers at Fir, before the trip to Airdrie and they finish at home to Annan. I can't see anything other than a 12-point return.

The post-Dobbie era at Palmerston begins with a home game v. Queen's Park, followed by a short hop to Annan. That should build some confidence, but the squad overhaul looks bottom-half calibre for the Championship and I don't see them troubling 'Well. Airdrie fans are moaning. The loss of McCann is a negative and their best summer signing was in the Lowland League last season. Is Dylan Easton not good enough for Kelty? The closed season ins and out look to have balanced out OK. They have the two unseeded sides as their first two fixtures but they have to travel to Dumfries in Round #5 and they don't look a threat. Christ alone knows what's going on at Queen's Park. Laurie Ellis wasn't the most underwhelming SPFL manager unveiled in a summer of cut-price appointments but he's not got the profile most Spiders' fans were expecting. No ambitious signings, no news on Lesser Hampden, very little communication of any sort. As things stand, a title challenge appears a long way off. Opening week tankings at Palmerston and v. 'Well in Maryhill could see the unrest multiply. In a weak section, Annan may well pick-up a win or two and the squad looks just about good enough to avoid joining the Lowland League next year, though Wright buggering off to Coatbridge is a sore one.

 

GROUP G.

While one Wright buggering off from Scotland's Sunny Southwest is a pain for Annan, another Wright staying put is likely to be good news for Killie. I expected Tommy to stay at Rugby Park and I expected Bowie to give him a budget with which he should win Killie a sub-standard Championship. I see no grounds for altering my May prices.

2/5 Killie, 3 Morton, 10 Clyde, 25 Stranraer, 25 E.Kilbride.

A lot of players have left the sunken ship and Killie don't look to be throwing daft amounts of cash around, but the squad assembling in KA1 should be good enough to win the Championship. At likely prices around a shade of odds-against, I won't be going in as heavily as on Hibs at 4/5 in 98/99 but I may be having a fair bet on them for the title and I'd make them narrowly odds-on. Three ex-Hibbies in the lucky bag - McGinn S., Murray F. and Naismith J. - who were all reasonable fill-ins as squad players at Easter Road. The League Cup is first up though and they should sluice through this section. The fixture compiler gave the TV boys a choice of potential opening night giant-killing and they wisely swerved Killie at E.Kilbride, in favour of Kelty v. Dundee U. Not an easy opener though. EK have continued to "invest" in benevolent funds for failed players. A bye in midweek, then a trip to Cumbernauld, before what should be a straight showdown at home to Morton in a fortnight.

Morton are still very short of bodies, just 5 days before the season starts. They should have enough about them to see-off the lower league trio, but that's not a given and McPherson is taking his time about assembling a squad. Kindish fixtures with 'Raer away to open, then EK at Cappielow before they get their bye. Very difficult to see the current lineup troubling Killie and they may be prone to an upset loss or two, even in this weak section.

Biggish player turnover at Clyde. They have to be worrying about staying up in that division and they look scarcely any better prepared than Morton. Stranraer have lost boss Stevie Farrell but losing Ruari Paton is arguably more irritating. They don't seem to have moved either way from last season's play-off standard and can't be taken lightly. East Kilbride are likely a similar standard to the 'Raer. Signed a few pensioners of late. Chris Miller going back to Cappielow will be sentimental... unless Morton re-sign him in the next 7 days.

 

GROUP H.

Extremely aggravating that the most interesting group has been made considerably less competitive by a lopsided fixture list. A bottom-six Premiership side up against two Championship opponents who'll be realistically targeting the play-offs should be intriguing. However, St.Mirren have home advantage against both Pars and Jags, so are comfortably favourites to progress.

I'd stick with my initial odds and go: 4/9 St.Mirren, 4 Pars, 11/2 Partick, 16 Dumbarton, 40 Stenny.

This section features three of the top eight clubs when it comes to records at this stage. In 20 games each, Pars have won 17, Jags 16 and Buddies 15. 

The Saints shagged a far easier group than this two years ago by losing at home to Dunfermline on opening day. This year they face Dumbarton away before the Pars head to Paisley next Tuesday. The TV boys don't think the Buddies are certs for the group, as they've scheduled the Round #5 game at home to Partick as their final day broadcast. A few significant departures but the Saints squad looks stronger than May's. Recycling relegated players is not often a recipe for success, but ex-Killie trio Power, Kiltie & Brophy still have something to offer at top level. Tanser is a decent capture from Perth, Curtis Main has returned to Scotland, while Dunne's dodgy knees will hopefully withstand all the extra activity and strain that footballers' knees have to endure these days. I think Saints will stay clear of the relegation fight this term and they should win this group with a bit to spare.

Pars have to visit Paisley and Firhill, which is a tad unfair, but those are their first two games: at Partick to open on Saturday and at St.Mirren next Tuesday. Peter Grant seemed to be the board's first choice as gaffer. He'll presumably get time to sort things. He's signed Todorov from Caley, a slightly streaky/flaky player, but one I've always liked. The highly-rated #5 Ross Graham's arrived from the Arabs... so highly rated that United signed Mulgrew and loaned young Graham to Pars for the season, but he has signed a 3-year contract at Tannadice. I'm not sure about Turkish goalies, period.

Partick sprouted wings to win the League One title and McCall will expect them to be in the shake-up at the top of the table. Nobody remarkable has raised a yellow, red & black scarf above their head for a Firhill photo this summer, but the signings look sensible. Dunfermline at home is a testing start. They've a midweek bye before the two Harry Wraggs v. Rags games, then a potential last day decider in Paisley.

Dumbarton's record in this is criminal - 3 wins in 20 games - so poaching a prison officer to manage the side makes sense. Moving from Stranraer to Dumbarton? Farrell probably does a fair bit of overtime at work: more pleasant surroundings. A fair few players departed with Duff Jimmy and the replacements look set for a season of struggle: likely commencing with three proper doings here. Patrick Boyle moving to League One from Kelty is an eye-opener. Paul Paton's back up from EK. Stenny got down to business early in the closed season. Like everyone else down there, they don't want to be facing EK or Brora in a play-off next May... or Darvel a couple of years down the track. Have hoovered up a lot of the fall out from whatever's gone on at BSC Glasgow, who play 10 miles over the bridge in Alloa, and BSC are/were a good standard. Should be OK in the league and may worry Sons here, but not the other trio.

 

 

Edited July 6, 2021 by FortescueFotheringhamSmyth

[FortescueFotheringhamSmyth]

Wednesday. 11:45am. 

56 hours until kickoff.

Not one firm has priced the League Cup fixtures. 

Prices for Europa Conference League qualifiers, such as Tre Penne (San Marino) v. Dinamo Batumi (Georgia), were up on Monday. 

Yet they can't price Kelty Hearts v. Dundee United - a repeat of a fixture at this stage last year. The usual data they use to price cup games between clubs from different divisions, leagues or countries applies to League Cup games.

Prices to win the groups are admittedly more difficult to produce. Less data to go on and the chance of clubs treating matches as glorified bounce games is more difficult to factor-in when it comes to winning a group or qualifying than it is in a one-off fixture. There's a knock-on effect. Teams already eliminated may down tools for their 3rd or 4th group game.

If you sat them down in "exam conditions" with a pen and paper (no calculators allowed) the compilers would come up with prices to win the groups that are much further apart from each other than their prices for individual matches or their ante-post lists would be. However, every compiler is aware that every other firm will more-or-less follow his prices if he chalks-up first. If the Bet365 compiler is first to go up and calls 10/11 Accies in the most competitive group, no rival compiler reckoning they should be 8/13 or 7/4 will go "Pah! What an idiot!" and chalk-up 8/13 or 7/4. The rival will go 5/6 or 11/10 at best.

Some of these lads should be queuing at a gender reassignment clinic.

[welshbairn]

In my experience Ladbrokes are often first with the odds for Scottish games, in the shops at least, and then scramble to sort out mistakes after McBookies put theirs out on a Thursday.  

[FortescueFotheringhamSmyth]

Lunchtime, Thursday.

I'm struggling to believe there are still no prices up for the League Cup games tomorrow & Saturday. Not at Ladbrokes. Not at McBookie. Not at Bet365. Not anywhere listed on Oddschecker either.

There are prices up on English nonleague friendlies tomorrow night... and we're not talking ex-league bigboys like Wrexham & Notts.Co or even Blyth Spartans v. Gateshead size of games. These are fixtures between clubs whose average attendance for a league game would fit in a coach.

There is only going to be one game without an odds-on shot and I concede these are difficult to price, especially tomorrow's pair, with Kelty bound to be buzzing and Embra having culled the squad, but this is exceptionally lame. 

Ballpark figures, I'd go...

6 Kelty, 1/3 Arabs, 7/2 draw.

5 Embra, 4/9 Accies, 3 draw.

1/2 Cove, 9/2 Stirling, 11/4 draw.

11/2 Peterhead, 2/5 Hearts, 10/3 draw.

4 Elgin, 4/7 Arbroath, 11/4 draw.

11/2 Forfar, 2/5 Ross, 10/3 draw.

4/6 Montrose, 7/2 Brora, 5/2 draw.

16 Brechin, 1/8 Livi, 6 draw.

6 Cowden, 1/3 Raith, 7/2 draw.

11/2 Albion, 2/5 Ayr, 10/3 draw. 

4/6 Airdrie, 7/2 Annan, 5/2 draw.

4/7 Q.South, 4 Q.Park, 5/2 draw.

6 E.Kilbride, 1/3 Killie, 7/2 draw.

4 Stranraer, 4/7 Morton, 5/2 draw.

11/2 Dumbarton, 2/5 St.Mirren, 10/3 draw.

7/4 Partick, 11/8 Pars, 9/4 draw.

On my own prices, Morton strike me as looking most vulnerable.

[welshbairn]

League Cup games starting to go up on McBookies, only Friday's so far.

[FortescueFotheringhamSmyth]

About what you'd expect for a League  2 title contender v. a mid-table Championship side, but a mite generous to Embra, given the upheaval.

Edited July 8, 2021 by FortescueFotheringhamSmyth

[D Angelo Barksdale]

Mulling over Kelty double chance. Roughly 11/4, 3/1 seems a decent shout.

[FortescueFotheringhamSmyth]

14 hours ago, Frank Sobotka said:

Mulling over Kelty double chance. Roughly 11/4, 3/1 seems a decent shout.

Might be worth hanging back to see what odds are available on Betfair for that. Might be some money in the market by kickoff. Someone snaffled the 12 and 11.5 about Kelty yesterday- they got about £15 on. There's £9 up there at 11.5 just now. Someone also got about £15 on the draw at 7+. There's £13 up there at 6.6 now.

I'll be on Accies. Embra's signings look as good as the players they've let go and they've played in the friendlies, but I can't believe they're up to speed as an XI yet.

In hindsight, I can understand bookies not doing group betting. With Covid forfeits rearing their head, taking bets on group winners might be more trouble than it's worth. Rules would be clear enough to ensure that any Ross County backers have done their dough, but someone in the media would likely find a losing punter and spin a bookie-bashing story out of it.

[welshbairn]

McBookie has Saturday's games up now.

[FortescueFotheringhamSmyth]

I concede the bookies were closer with Accies tonight than I was. Had a wee wager at 1.83 on Betfair. It pays for the beers this weekend, but they played more like 5/6 shots than 4/9 chances. Not going to contend in the Championship on that form. Embra seem to be coming together nicely. Might even get within 12 points of Kelty if they really gel as a team.

I'll be having a larger bet on the Pars. I pinched the 3.15 on Betfair for £20 - all that was there at the time! - and they've drifted out to 3.2.

I make Pars favourites for the match, yet the bookies are calling close to evens Thistle. I can't see that at all. If you convert those odds to supremacy and extend the projection to season's points expectations, I calculate that the bookies think Partick will get maybe 6 points more than Dunfermline over the league season. As the squads stand, I reckon Pars will finish 8 to 10 points ahead of Thistle.

Partick were immensely impressive in April, but they weren't too hot prior to that. There is a clear correlation between a promoted team's performance in the division they've just won and the expectation for the new season at a higher level. It was a truncated season, but you've to go back to Stirling in 2010 to find a League One title winner with a worse record than the Jags had last season - and that was only by a bawhair: 1.81 to 1.80 on points-per-game. You've to go back to Raith in 2003 to find a League One winner with a clearly inferior record. Partick seem well below average League One champions, winning a below average third tier. Airdrie were 2nd, for heaven's sake. You couldn't say Morton retained their Championship place comfortably in the playoffs, as they got a last-minute extra time winner v. Montrose, but they didn't break sweat against Airdrie. I think this is a game with the wrong favourite, never mind an 11/10 favourite.

[D Angelo Barksdale]

 

23 hours ago, FortescueFotheringhamSmyth said:

Might be worth hanging back to see what odds are available on Betfair for that. Might be some money in the market by kickoff. Someone snaffled the 12 and 11.5 about Kelty yesterday- they got about £15 on. There's £9 up there at 11.5 just now. Someone also got about £15 on the draw at 7+. There's £13 up there at 6.6 now.

I'll need to dust off the old Betfair account or open a new one as I've not used them since my matched betting days.

Kelty just fell short last night, but happy with the bet, they were far too big. Should have maybe went the handicap route though.

Going to follow you in on the pars, whilst in the battle of the queens, the home side are on the drift and I'll probably have a small interest there.

[FortescueFotheringhamSmyth]

Yep. The pair almost the same price at Palmerston. 6/4 Q.o.S and 17/10 Spiders on Bet365. That looks wrong. I've just got £20 on Q.o.S. at 2.72 on Betfair.

Pars in to 13/8 with Bet365, but that's the shortest price they are anywhere. Jags drifting out everywhere though.

Edited July 10, 2021 by FortescueFotheringhamSmyth

[welshbairn]

Should have listened on here about the Pars, called QP and Stirling Albion right but didn't cover the doubles.

[FortescueFotheringhamSmyth]

I'm feeling a wee bit testicularly challenged just now.

I've £100 on Italy @ 9.4.

Normally, I'd not even think about wimping out.

I wouldn't consider trading out, because the lemmings are piling on Ing-Ger-Lund and I consider Italy's price to be good value.

This isn't normal though.

Problem is, I live in Central London. The temptation to find something long & sharp and impersonate a Jacobite Hielan clansman, a medieval berserker (or a jihadi), should the unthinkable occur, would be strong enough in any event... never mind if it means I'm £900 worse off than I would've been if the unthinkable hadn't happened.

If an Ing-Ger-Lund triumph is only 2nd on the news this evening, because someone's tried to impersonate Thomas Hamilton, Michael Ryan, or Derek Bird, it'll likely be me.

*Just kidding.

*Someone from Polis Glesca is bound to be looking in and will be on to New Scotland Yard pronto.

[dave258]

£20 each way on Italy at 10s pre-tournament, so guaranteed profit no matter what happens. Offered £212 to cash out but going to let it run.

 

Also live in Central London so I feel your pain - tomorrow will either be the best day at work in a long time or the absolute worst ever

 

Probably not gonna go down the killing spree route though TBH.