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The most profitable teams to back in 2020/21 across Europe's top 5 leagues


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MOST PROFITABLE

  1. Cadiz
  2. Granada
  3. Leicester

LEAST PROFITABLE

  1. Parma
  2. Torino
  3. Valladolid

This post ranks how profitable each team in the top 5 European leagues are if you were place a 1 point stake on them in every match: 
https://bitedge.com/blog/most-profitable-soccer-teams-to-bet-on-2021/ 

Interestingly, if you backed a draw in every German Bundesliga match last season you'd end up over 19 points up. Whereas, backing the draw in the Premier League and Ligue 1 would leave you 48 and 33 points down respectively. 

A lot of the bigger teams don't allow for much profit across the season, which I guess shows the value of value! Finding underdogs which will win is a much better strategy than backing a team like Liverpool (5 points down), Man City (0.9 points down) or PSG (3 points down).

Anyone manage to back Granada to beat Barcelona at 20.98?! 🤣

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Posted (edited)

Interesting. I think stats like this are worth keeping an eye on, but the numbers for teams at the very top of the table will usually be skewed by a 20/1+ win. 

I don't have the Premiership stats, but I'd guess St.Mirren's win in the East End of Glesca would've seen them top the table. Ross might've been 2nd on the back of their win over Celtic. Stats would be easy enough to google. The Racing Post publishes them every Saturday in the season.

In the NFL and the NRL & AFL Down Under the similar stats can be more informative in competitions where clubs are far more evenly matched. Though clubs with the most fans will still generally be shorter odds than they should be, while poorly supported teams may be overpriced. 

What you really want is clubs with huge amounts of fans from areas full of neds, chavs, bogans, jackeens, rubes, etc. Collingwood, South Sydney, the Raiders and two clubs in Scotland spring to mind.

 

**Edit** It Sez Ere (as Billy Bragg would say) on "The Punters Page", the 1st site that came up on Google, that Ross County were top in the Premiership. Maybe not surprising, as they won at Hibs, beat Aberdeen and 6 of their 11 wins were away. Rangers were 2nd. Nobody else in profit. St.Mirren would've made you a small loss (!?), even though 7 of their 11 wins were away. I can't see that. If they were 12/1 to win at Celtic, they'd only have needed to be an average of 6/4 for the other 10 wins to break even. Must have been bigger than 6/4 on average, even though they didn't beat Hibs or Aberdeen.

Edited by FortescueFotheringhamSmyth
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16 hours ago, FortescueFotheringhamSmyth said:

Interesting. I think stats like this are worth keeping an eye on, but the numbers for teams at the very top of the table will usually be skewed by a 20/1+ win. 

I don't have the Premiership stats, but I'd guess St.Mirren's win in the East End of Glesca would've seen them top the table. Ross might've been 2nd on the back of their win over Celtic. Stats would be easy enough to google. The Racing Post publishes them every Saturday in the season.

In the NFL and the NRL & AFL Down Under the similar stats can be more informative in competitions where clubs are far more evenly matched. Though clubs with the most fans will still generally be shorter odds than they should be, while poorly supported teams may be overpriced. 

What you really want is clubs with huge amounts of fans from areas full of neds, chavs, bogans, jackeens, rubes, etc. Collingwood, South Sydney, the Raiders and two clubs in Scotland spring to mind.

 

**Edit** It Sez Ere (as Billy Bragg would say) on "The Punters Page", the 1st site that came up on Google, that Ross County were top in the Premiership. Maybe not surprising, as they won at Hibs, beat Aberdeen and 6 of their 11 wins were away. Rangers were 2nd. Nobody else in profit. St.Mirren would've made you a small loss (!?), even though 7 of their 11 wins were away. I can't see that. If they were 12/1 to win at Celtic, they'd only have needed to be an average of 6/4 for the other 10 wins to break even. Must have been bigger than 6/4 on average, even though they didn't beat Hibs or Aberdeen.

Yes, true one big win does swing it a bit. 

Interesting to know that Ross County were top of the Scottish Premiership. Not quite sure how St Mirren have stayed negative! 

I suppose this is a good way to look back and see which bigger sides really underperformed. In this case, Celtic... 

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