Next to go?

[rockson]

4 hours ago, Gordon EF said:

Do you think Arbroath will see L2 any time in the next 10-15 years?

They'll regress when Dick Campbell leaves. And maybe even as soon as next season.

[tamthebam]

If we're talking populations... 

I've read the population of the City of Glasgow is 580,690 although Greater Glasgow is 1.6 million apparently. 

City of Edinburgh's population is 548,000. 

The City of Glasgow has four league clubs at the moment: the arsecheeks, QP and Partick 

Edinburgh has Hearts, Hibs and Edinburgh City. 

Edinburgh City are apparently no mark diddies. I blame the egg chasers myself. 

[Scorge]

5 hours ago, Gordon EF said:

Of course clubs will move towards their 'natural' position but what happens is that they tend to ebb and flow around that. It really is ridiculous to pick Arbroath's best season in almost all of our lifetimes to decide that this is the actual natural order of things. Club after club have hit highs and would have said almost exactly what you're saying now. Do you think Clyde fans thought they'd end up bottom of the pile within years when they were a whisker away from the Premier in the 2000s? Or Brechin fans had any clue they were about to hurtle straight out of the SPFL when they won the Championship play-offs just a few years ago?

Christ, it wasn't that long ago that Falkirk were playing in Europe and Cowdenbeath were finishing 8th the Championship.

Yep. I've said it before, but football is largely cyclical and your fate is in the hands of boards/chairmen and how much money they have, and the strength of the first team at any given time. In the case of part time teams, someone has to finish 42. The ceiling hasn't changed, just the floor has gotten deeper, and nobody is completely safe. Lord knows where you place a Tier 2/3 club that goes bankrupt and pulls a Sevco without causing a headache nowadays. I'm mildly surprised it hasn't happened with some of the badly managed basket cases going about just now (hiyah Falkirk).

Population/crowd/etc isn't the big deal IMO - if you get an egomaniacal fantasist a'la mid-2000's Gr£tna, then you could put a village up at the top of Everest if you want. A******h, with a combination of a relatively weak championship with chasing teams cutting each others throats and a well drilled team, made it to the Hillary Step this season before running out of oxygen (thankfully). If you don't have hope when you support a 'diddy', you have nowt.

Edited May 17, 2022 by Scorge

[EdinburghBlue]

4 minutes ago, Scorge said:

Yep. I've said it before, but football is largely cyclical and your fate is in the hands of boards/chairmen and how much money they have, and the strength of the first team at any given time. In the case of part time teams, someone has to finish 42. The ceiling hasn't changed, just the floor has gotten deeper, and nobody is completely safe. Lord knows where you place a Tier 2/3 club that goes bankrupt and pulls a Sevco without causing a headache nowadays. I'm mildly surprised it hasn't happened with some of the badly managed basket cases going about just now (hiyah Falkirk).

Population/crowd/etc isn't the big deal IMO - if you get an egomaniacal fantasist a'la mid-2000's Gr£tna, then you could put a village up at the top of Everest if you want. A******h, with a combination of a relatively weak championship with chasing teams cutting each others throats and a well drilled team, made it to the Hillary Step this season before running out of oxygen (thankfully). If you don't have hope when you support a 'diddy', you have nowt.

A lot of people were Tensing up at the thought of them going up

[1320Lichtie]

1 hour ago, rockson said:

They'll regress when Dick Campbell leaves. And maybe even as soon as next season.

Obviously we will regress. We finished 2nd in the championship ffs!!!!!

 

Its everything that’s happened off the park that will stop us from 2 successive relegations like A Cowden Or Brechin or Dumbarton. Sonsteam Of 08 summed it Up in regards to what happened or never happened at Dumbarton when they were around about where we are 

 

It’s night and day from our League 2 days. The whole set up has changed and the clubs made incredible progress in regards to the commercial and community aspect of things 
 

It’s barely the same football club. And I realise from the outside people might be unaware of the changes 

 

Of course there’ll be ups and downs but we will not be anywhere near they Lumsden days again 

Edited May 17, 2022 by 1320Lichtie

[SimonLichtie]

When we have our next utterly shite season, whenever that may be, we'll then begin too see exactly what we've got in terms of core fan base and what we've built up. In terms of League 2/ the arse end of League 2, like any club in any division, you try to give yourself the best possible chance of finishing as high up that division as possible. I'd like to think over the next decade we're in a position where we shouldn't be near the bottom end of League 2, but of course stranger things have happened. Any club is just one or two shite managerial appointments, or off field issues, away from plummeting. I'm very confident we're not going to have any issues relating to the latter for a long time, but the former is impossible to say.

Outwith the next decade or so anything can happen. The league structure could change, the surge in promotions and clubs coming from relative 'no-where' could really increase and one other rather important thing..... there are 20 odd other part time clubs in the country who have the potential to do what we've done, on and off the pitch, and raise themselves, let alone 9 full time clubs who finished below us this season. We don't need to turn shite/ things to go wrong etc..... others can get their act together as well, and they will.

In the medium/ longer term, as 1320Lichtie has said, we have to believe we can establish ourselves as a club that fluctuates between the Championship and League 1, and any time in League 2 is spent challenging to get out of it. However, every other part time club in the country is aiming to do this and as has happened in the past, plenty of other clubs will have their day/ season just like we have.

[Old Fashioned Stramash]

2 hours ago, EdinburghBlue said:

If you accept population as a measure of potential crowds and hence income, there are some settlements in the top 50 in Scotland that are underperforming and some over performing.

Settlements in the top 50 without a league club: East Kilbride (6), Cumbernauld (10), Glenrothes (18), Irvine (22), Bearsden (28), Newton Mearns (29), Clydebank (30), Renfrew (32), Bishopbriggs (33), Bathgate (34), Kirkintilloch (36), Musselburgh (37), Bellshill (39), St Andrews (41), Bonnybridge (42), Barrhead (43), Blantyre (44), Penicuik (45), Grangemouth (46), Kilwinning (47), Broxburn (48), Johnstone (49) and Viewpark (50).

there’s an obvious link for the first four.

(Possibly some of these are so close to other settlements with teams that you might choose not to count e.g. Grangemouth to Falkirk.)

Those that are ‘underperforming’ include Dunfermline (8), Hamilton (9), Coatbridge (16), Stirling (19)

Arbroath (35) and Dumbarton (38) are arguably overperformers.   Even more so places like Forfar, Kelty, Montrose and Stranraer which are nowhere near the top 50.

 I've always wondered why Grangemouth doesn't have a more established team, other than the amateurs. Especially when you consider the duration of time the  infrastructure around the area has been here and the companies operating here who could sponsor, be affiliated to some extent ( like Syngenta ) and a no bad wee stadium is already there - all be it with a s***e running track around it. 

On the other points being made...

Arbroath made some off the pitch changes, they've worked and they got a good amount of success out of it. Think we all know that some big decisions are to be made at Arbroath. Either they want to keep improving and building what they've now established or keep it the same and hope results keep coming to sustain the fanbase and sponsors. I can't see how Arbroath can sustain themselves where they are for much longer without kicking on again. 

Every team will be looking to modernise or improve in some way based on their budgets. They always have, it's just the threat of newly promoted teams and relegation to LL/HL has heightened the competitiveness of the leagues and made these business/footballing decisions critical. Some of these club strategies will work, some will fail and just like that, it could cost your team league status. As we know, clubs at our level don't have much available capital to rip things up and change the way they're doing things too often. A long term plan needs to be in place and that needs sustainability/income and that's why the SFL has stagnated to some degree. It's also the reason as to why Arbroath will come back down and as to why, teams like Stenny CAN go above league 1. 

Of course, teams like Kelty and possibly Darvel are the exceptions at our level. Who,  to an extent, can buy their way up the leagues, whilst implementing long term sustainable strategies. 

One other thing.... Quite a few teams in maroon doing well these last few seasons.... maybe it'll be Stenny's turn next season 

 

[cowdenbeath]

9 hours ago, PELE said:

Yeah. It will be interesting to see how these type of teams fare in say League 2. I was surprised at how small Darvel and Auchinleck are. I always assumed they had a bigger population, especially Auchinleck. They do really well for such a small place, although Darvel is down to the sugar daddy. Then look at Ross County. They have a population which is about 1/5th of what Elgin has.

Like you and others have said, when the entrance cost doubles and they aren't winning most weeks, we will see how many paying fans keep turning up. I thought the same about Kelty before they came up. Some of their fans insisted that they could still do well without the sugar daddy, but I can't see it. Without his money I think they would head back to the Lowland League

Dingwall’s population is a red herring re Ross County they have fans coming from a large area out with the town.

[vikingTON]

13 hours ago, PELE said:

Yeah. It will be interesting to see how these type of teams fare in say League 2. I was surprised at how small Darvel and Auchinleck are. I always assumed they had a bigger population, especially Auchinleck. They do really well for such a small place, although Darvel is down to the sugar daddy. Then look at Ross County. They have a population which is about 1/5th of what Elgin has.

Auchinleck get a fair number of supporters from the surrounding villages as well (possibly also those who moved to the big smoke that is, err, Kilmarnock). If you're traveling by train to Dumfries then their home game is always noticeable. 

Ross County do not rely on the population of Dingwall but rather the much larger catchment area that they and Inverness tap into north of Loch Ness. 

Both of the above examples are magnified of course by relatively consistent success and so minor level glory-hunting, but it's actually the catchment area rather than the size of a settlement that is the appropriate benchmark for a club's potential.

Catchment areas also overlap to a considerable degree - Albion Rovers are never going to get more than a tiny fraction of the match day going residents of their area, because of their proximity to the east end of Glasgow. 

7 hours ago, Old Fashioned Stramash said:

 I've always wondered why Grangemouth doesn't have a more established team, other than the amateurs. 

Calling Falkirk FC "amateurs" is a bit harsh; most amateur clubs are actually better run than that clowncar outfit.

Edited May 18, 2022 by vikingTON

[welshbairn]

34 minutes ago, virginton said:

Ross County do not rely on the population of Dingwall but rather the much larger catchment area that they and Inverness tap into north of Loch Ness. 

County benefited from a sizeable number of pissed off Thistle and Caledonian fans wanting nothing to do with the merger.

[craigkillie]

18 hours ago, Cosmic Joe said:

Auchinleck and Darvel look great prospects when playing at Ayrshire (former Junior) level but they play in villages with a solid fanbase of a few hundred, forking out a fiver to watch a winning side. 

Different story altogether when faced with paying £15 a week to pay the going rate to attract lower SPFL players' wages without being bankrolled in a place with a population smaller than Brechin. And watching a team that will probably lose far more than they will win. 

This is the second post I've seen lumping together Auchinleck and Darvel as though they are the same type of clubs. Auchinleck have an established history as a big, well-supported club, while Darvel are a club with a small support who happen to have the financial backing to buy their way up the leagues. If you start lumping them together when talking about the future of these clubs and indeed Scottish football then it's hard to take the rest of your post seriously because it comes from a bit of a position of ignorance.

Edited May 18, 2022 by craigkillie

[1320Lichtie]

40 minutes ago, craigkillie said:

This is the second post I've seen lumping together Auchinleck and Darvel as though they are the same type of clubs. Auchinleck have an established history as a big, well-supported club, while Darvel are a club with a small support who happen to have the financial backing to buy their way up the leagues. If you start lumping them together when talking about the future of these clubs and indeed Scottish footbal then it's hard to take the rest of your post seriously because it comes from a bit of a position of ignorance.

They are totally different things obviously Auchinleck are well established but Darvel have potentially just over taken them in a short while. 
 

What’s the difference in Darvel attendances and Auchinlecks this season? Couldn’t find it anywhere 

 

Also if Auchinleck moved up the structure and the local derbies disappeared, big fish small pond, winning most weeks and less success on park do you think that would potentially affect them? I honestly have no idea but I think it is another interesting thing about the pyramid 

[Thom & Gerry]

6 hours ago, cowdenbeath said:

Dingwall’s population is a red herring re Ross County they have fans coming from a large area out with the town.

They certainly have fans from a large area but a sparsely populated area.

[TheScarf]

Getting £1.5 million of debt written off every year helps too.

[Cold Feet]

There are many variables in success or arse falling out of everything.

As I stated earlier we had a poor committee who oversaw a shit show and resulted in us being in the HL. Much has changed in the last year on / off the pitch and hopefully we will be back soon. Those out with Brechin will struggle to see the change but much has happened

As for a level I think we were a solid enough L1 side with flirtations with Championship and L2 - occasionally up / occasionally down. 

We should be a warning to everyone, sitting in Tanadice for a League game to being in Keith on a wet and bloody cold night under the worst floodlight system known to man. 

[foreverarover]

Larbert and Stenhousemuir have a bigger population than Arbroath, and that's before you look at smaller surrounding villages like Carronshore. It's nonsense to say Stenny and Arbroath are both currently where they should be, whilst simultaneously talking about population size when comparing the likes of Montrose and Bonnyrigg.

Larbert is mainly a large part being a massive housing estate with outsiders from other areas who have no interest in the local teams.

[Sir Tarmo]

On 17/05/2022 at 16:00, Gordon EF said:

Do you think Arbroath will see L2 any time in the next 10-15 years?

Yes. Arbroath will very likely be relegated next season.

[Cyclizine]

On 18/05/2022 at 11:49, Thom & Gerry said:

They certainly have fans from a large area but a sparsely populated area.

There's about 50,000 people living in Ross-shire, majority live relatively local to Dingwall in Easter Ross. We also have Inverness-based fans and those that travel from further north as well.

Spoiler

Plus we have Uncle Roy's £££

 

[Thom & Gerry]

As I said a pretty sparsely populated area

[Death in Vegas]

Bonnyrigg Rose, will be scrapping it out at the bottom. Hopefully get a price on them to finish bottom from Mcbookie. Will be a good price I would think.