Next to go?

[Am Featha Taigh Nan Clach]

11 minutes ago, 1320Lichtie said:

On Auchinleck/Darvel etc I really have no idea what to expect from them. They’ve a brilliant backing but they’re from tiny villages. What actually happens to these clubs and their supports when they start making their way up the leagues is anyone’s guess. When they actually start playing against better teams and not winning things or having their local derbies and getting charged a lot more to get into grounds etc what happens to them?

 

Again a good and interesting thing about the pyramid surely 

Unless I'm mistaken, Auchinleck (and Linlithgow, Pollok and many more) former junior clubs are just reasonably well run clubs with fairy decent supports (4-500ish).

Darvel have had money pumped into it by Brownings Bakers and are the next Kelty. Have a look at Darvel's squad!

[1320Lichtie]

Just now, Am Featha *****h Nan Clach said:

Unless I'm mistaken, Auchinleck (and Linlithgow, Pollok and many more) former junior clubs are just reasonably well run clubs with fairy decent supports (4-500ish).

Darvel have had money pumped into it by Brownings Bakers and are the next Kelty. Have a look at Darvel's squad!

Linlithgow and Bonnyrigg both decent sized places. About the same as Forfar and Montrose and potentially bigger.
 

Auchinleck only has 3.5k which is crazy, Darvel crowds have looked solid too in fairness I’ve watched a lot of their highlights. Just unsure on what it would mean for them if they were to come away from the derbies and all the winning/success and the higher costs of games etc. 
 

We played Darvel in the cup, they were decent enough. Bonnyrigg etc the kind of club I’m enjoying seeing come up (no offence Cowden). Seems a solid set up 

[Marshmallo]

Larbert and Stenhousemuir have a bigger population than Arbroath, and that's before you look at smaller surrounding villages like Carronshore. It's nonsense to say Stenny and Arbroath are both currently where they should be, whilst simultaneously talking about population size when comparing the likes of Montrose and Bonnyrigg.

[1320Lichtie]

1 minute ago, Marshmallo said:

Larbert and Stenhousemuir have a bigger population than Arbroath, and that's before you look at smaller surrounding villages like Carronshore. It's nonsense to say Stenny and Arbroath are both currently where they should be, whilst simultaneously talking about population size when comparing the likes of Montrose and Bonnyrigg.

Stenhousemuir as I understand it is basically Falkirk no? And unfortunately you’ll know as well as anyone that everywhere in and around Glasgow suffers from OF supporting fans a whole lot more than up here. I cannot talk for Bonnyrigg etc. But from what I have heard and seen they’ve got a good community backing and seem to have better crowds than Stenny already 

[Neilly]

31 minutes ago, Gordon EF said:

I genuinely think your perspective's been warped by so many years of season-on-season improvement. As Neilly says, I think you're confusing the stars aligning for a limited amount of time with something else.  Maybe Arbroath really have taken a step change up in the size of club they are. The real test will be when Dick Campbell goes, the core of the side that's propelled you through the leagues breaks up and you have a tough couple of seasons where you move back the way, rather than continually moving forward.

What Arbroath have achieved on and off the park over the past few years is absolutely enviable. Everyone outside the bubble has just seen it happen too many times before. 

I think Gordon has it spot on. The Arbroath lad is speaking from a perspective of euphoria as opposed to reality, and I absolutely get that after what has went on there.

Arbroath could end up having a Brechin style pumping in the Championship next season and I wouldn't be the least bit surprised. No one would bat an eyelid in truth.

Ceiling (and floor for that matter) is just a buzz word that means little in the cold light of day when there are so many different variables at this level of football that count towards success or failure and everything in between.

[an86]

49 minutes ago, Glenconner said:

I watched Pollok v Clydebank last night in a West of Scotland cup tie.

Attendance 750

But worth pointing out it was only £7 to get in. £4 for concessions.

How many would have went had the admission price been say £15?

 

No idea. Our crowds have held up ok considering we’ve been playing at the other side of the city and haven’t really been “home” in two years. We’ll benefit from bigger away supports and I’d expect our support to grow to an extent as well. Already seeing a few new faces as a result of commercial and community stuff being done. League football is generally too expensive, though. 

[1320Lichtie]

2 minutes ago, Neilly said:

I think Gordon has it spot on. The Arbroath lad is speaking from a perspective of euphoria as opposed to reality, and I absolutely get that after what has went on there.

Arbroath could end up having a Brechin style pumping in the Championship next season and I wouldn't be the least bit surprised. No one would bat an eyelid in truth.

Ceiling (and floor for that matter) is just a buzz word that means little in the cold light of day when there are so many different variables at this level of football that count towards success or failure and everything in between.

I think literally EVERYONE except you would be surprised if we only took 4 points next season to be fair 

[Marshmallo]

1 minute ago, Neilly said:

Ceiling (and floor for that matter) is just a buzz word that means little in the cold light of day when there are so many different variables at this level of football that count towards success or failure and everything in between.

Yes, even at the "top level" in Scotland. Look at the clubs that won trophies and finished 2nd/3rd in the top flight when Rangers, Hearts and Hibs had their various challenges 5-10 years ago. Factors at other clubs played at least as much of a role in that as those clubs "sorting themselves out" or "hitting their ceiling. 

[Neilly]

1 minute ago, 1320Lichtie said:

I think literally EVERYONE except you would be surprised if we only took 4 points next season to be fair 

I wasn't meaning literally four points but more taking a regular pumping and finishing bottom. I think you knew that anyway but just to clarify.

[1320Lichtie]

9 minutes ago, Neilly said:

I wasn't meaning literally four points but more taking a regular pumping and finishing bottom. I think you knew that anyway but just to clarify.

Why’d you mention Brechin then?  

 

Could’ve just said QoTS

[Neilly]

3 minutes ago, 1320Lichtie said:

Why’d you mention Brechin then?  

 

Could’ve just said QoTS

Queens never got pumped every week and were competitive until the end or I could have said them aye.

Would you be surprised if you finished bottom next season? I think from within your euphoric bubble you would say yes obviously but I don't think anyone outside it would be. 

 

[1320Lichtie]

21 minutes ago, Marshmallo said:

Yes, even at the "top level" in Scotland. Look at the clubs that won trophies and finished 2nd/3rd in the top flight when Rangers, Hearts and Hibs had their various challenges 5-10 years ago. Factors at other clubs played at least as much of a role in that as those clubs "sorting themselves out" or "hitting their ceiling. 

Nah I think every club in the world has got a realistic potential high point they can reach and unless things change for better or worse quite drastically then they’ll realistically finish within those parameters. Falkirk are at their very lowest right now. Their ceiling for me would be a European spot. That’s as good as it could get.
 

Queens Park before the investment probably looking at top of League 1 as theirs, now I think they could potentially push for the Prem. Similar kind of thing to Newcastle in England. Before this takeover top 4 and now they could potentially win the league. 

 

We could’ve went up but realistically our ceiling is where we are right now and we could bottom out in L2 at the same time too. 

 

What makes the lower leagues in Scottish football exciting. Lots of clubs with the potential to move up and down a lot of places with the leagues being so small. 

[1320Lichtie]

6 minutes ago, Neilly said:

Queens never got pumped every week and were competitive until the end or I could have said them aye.

Would you be surprised if you finished bottom next season? I think from within your euphoric bubble you would say yes obviously but I don't think anyone outside it would be. 

 

No I wouldn’t be surprised if we finished bottom but I’d be extremely surprised if we got pumped every week. 3 seasons in this division and 5th, 7th and 2nd. Getting pumped and having a Brechin style season when the league looks the weakest it’s been in the 3 year we’ve been in it would be extremely surprising yes 

[Binos]

3 hours ago, Gordon EF said:

Do you think Arbroath will see L2 any time in the next 10-15 years?

Yes

[EdinburghBlue]

ANY club in Leagues 1/2 could have a couple of bad seasons and find themselves in a relegation playoff.  ‘Natural level’ becomes a meaningless concept when you have a couple of bad seasons.

What happened to Cowdenbeath with three relegations could even happy - dare say - to Arbroath.  

And even some full-time teams could be vulnerable, given that the wage levels some are offering don’t make them attractive to some good part-timers who have reasonably well paid jobs.

[Glenconner]

1 hour ago, Marshmallo said:

Larbert and Stenhousemuir have a bigger population than Arbroath, and that's before you look at smaller surrounding villages like Carronshore. It's nonsense to say Stenny and Arbroath are both currently where they should be, whilst simultaneously talking about population size when comparing the likes of Montrose and Bonnyrigg.

What's the script giving out hundreds of riddies ya daftie?

lol

[Glenconner]

18 minutes ago, EdinburghBlue said:

ANY club in Leagues 1/2 could have a couple of bad seasons and find themselves in a relegation playoff.  ‘Natural level’ becomes a meaningless concept when you have a couple of bad seasons.

What happened to Cowdenbeath with three relegations could even happy - dare say - to Arbroath.  

And even some full-time teams could be vulnerable, given that the wage levels some are offering don’t make them attractive to some good part-timers who have reasonably well paid jobs.

The team from Ibrox proved it.

[EdinburghBlue]

If you accept population as a measure of potential crowds and hence income, there are some settlements in the top 50 in Scotland that are underperforming and some over performing.

Settlements in the top 50 without a league club: East Kilbride (6), Cumbernauld (10), Glenrothes (18), Irvine (22), Bearsden (28), Newton Mearns (29), Clydebank (30), Renfrew (32), Bishopbriggs (33), Bathgate (34), Kirkintilloch (36), Musselburgh (37), Bellshill (39), St Andrews (41), Bonnybridge (42), Barrhead (43), Blantyre (44), Penicuik (45), Grangemouth (46), Kilwinning (47), Broxburn (48), Johnstone (49) and Viewpark (50).

there’s an obvious link for the first four.

(Possibly some of these are so close to other settlements with teams that you might choose not to count e.g. Grangemouth to Falkirk.)

Those that are ‘underperforming’ include Dunfermline (8), Hamilton (9), Coatbridge (16), Stirling (19)

Arbroath (35) and Dumbarton (38) are arguably overperformers.   Even more so places like Forfar, Kelty, Montrose and Stranraer which are nowhere near the top 50.

[Cosmic Joe]

Auchinleck and Darvel look great prospects when playing at Ayrshire (former Junior) level but they play in villages with a solid fanbase of a few hundred, forking out a fiver to watch a winning side. 

Different story altogether when faced with paying £15 a week to pay the going rate to attract lower SPFL players' wages without being bankrolled in a place with a population smaller than Brechin. And watching a team that will probably lose far more than they will win. 

[PELE]

17 minutes ago, Cosmic Joe said:

Auchinleck and Darvel look great prospects when playing at Ayrshire (former Junior) level but they play in villages with a solid fanbase of a few hundred, forking out a fiver to watch a winning side. 

Different story altogether when faced with paying £15 a week to pay the going rate to attract lower SPFL players' wages without being bankrolled in a place with a population smaller than Brechin. And watching a team that will probably lose far more than they will win. 

Yeah. It will be interesting to see how these type of teams fare in say League 2. I was surprised at how small Darvel and Auchinleck are. I always assumed they had a bigger population, especially Auchinleck. They do really well for such a small place, although Darvel is down to the sugar daddy. Then look at Ross County. They have a population which is about 1/5th of what Elgin has.

Like you and others have said, when the entrance cost doubles and they aren't winning most weeks, we will see how many paying fans keep turning up. I thought the same about Kelty before they came up. Some of their fans insisted that they could still do well without the sugar daddy, but I can't see it. Without his money I think they would head back to the Lowland League