Next to go?

[BFTD]

[FairWeatherFan]

31 minutes ago, Vimto90 said:

A think the history of the closed shop has made people think their clubs are in some way special or even "big" to an extent. Think some fans/clubs need an ego check.
 

Some of the hype is very much overblown with a focus on the sucesses and not the failures. It's more obvious from the West just because they've been outside the pyramid so long so haven't seen some of their teams filter up.

Fact is no part-time team is safe as a new broom can quickly turn the fortunes of a club and make them competitive. This year's T6 champion isn't going to come from Auchinleck Talbot or Linlithgow Rose but from Darvel or Tranent. Two clubs that were in the 3rd Tier of their Junior Region as recently as 2015-16.

[Vodka Vic]

4 hours ago, Binos said:

Albion are stirlings buffer,  possibly Elgin too

Once they've gone it's really brown trousers time 

Rovers beat Stirling 3 times last season and that’s Stirling on a playing budget way above ours supposedly. Are any teams safe.

[cowdenbeath]

41 minutes ago, Vodka Vic said:

Rovers beat Stirling 3 times last season and that’s Stirling on a playing budget way above ours supposedly. Are any teams safe.

I wouldn’t say any one is safe.

One shit manager away from finishing bottom!

[EdinburghBlue]

Another take on this.  Looking back over the last forty years, here is the last time teams currently in the league finished bottom:

 

*Montrose 2014/15

*Queen’s Park 2013/14

*Clyde 2010/11

Elgin City 2008/09

Forfar Athletic 2007/08

Albion Rovers 1999/2000

Dumbarton 1997/98

*Arbroath 1996/97

Stenhousemuir 1988/89

Stranraer 1987/88

(* - not currently in League 2 so could not be relegated in 2022/23.)

[Gordon EF]

13 hours ago, EdinburghBlue said:

Another take on this.  Looking back over the last forty years, here is the last time teams currently in the league finished bottom:

 

*Montrose 2014/15

*Queen’s Park 2013/14

*Clyde 2010/11

Elgin City 2008/09

Forfar Athletic 2007/08

Albion Rovers 1999/2000

Dumbarton 1997/98

*Arbroath 1996/97

Stenhousemuir 1988/89

Stranraer 1987/88

(* - not currently in League 2 so could not be relegated in 2022/23.)

Also worth noting that the only currently long term part time SPFL clubs not to have finished bottom since the 4 league structure came in are Alloa, Peterhead, East Fife, Stenhousemuir, Stranraer, and Stirling. 

Only four have avoided the bottom 2 in that time - Peterhead, East Fife, Stenhousemuir, and Stranraer.

That's not to say these clubs are much safer, just shows that almost everyone has been there at some point, or been close. I'm sure Berwick and Brechin hadn't been near the bottom for years before they took their shit turns that eventually saw them relegated.

[EdinburghBlue]

2 hours ago, Gordon EF said:

Also worth noting that the only currently long term part time SPFL clubs not to have finished bottom since the 4 league structure came in are Alloa, Peterhead, East Fife, Stenhousemuir, Stranraer, and Stirling. 

Only four have avoided the bottom 2 in that time - Peterhead, East Fife, Stenhousemuir, and Stranraer.

That's not to say these clubs are much safer, just shows that almost everyone has been there at some point, or been close. I'm sure Berwick and Brechin hadn't been near the bottom for years before they took their shit turns that eventually saw them relegated.

I think that’s why every part-time team is in danger. But that’s also why I disagree with those who argue that relegation is a one way door.  Most of those clubs who’ve been bottom at least once in the last forty years have been as high as the Championship.  And there aren’t many teams in the lower reaches of the pyramid who look obviously ‘bigger’, and permanently so.  So, as has happened in England, I can see clubs who fall being able to come back, and possibly even prosper on return.  In the long-term some (many?) part-time clubs will yo-yo between the tiers.

[Jacksgranda]

8 minutes ago, EdinburghBlue said:

I think that’s why every part-time team is in danger. But that’s also why I disagree with those who argue that relegation is a one way door.  Most of those clubs who’ve been bottom at least once in the last forty years have been as high as the Championship.  And there aren’t many teams in the lower reaches of the pyramid who look obviously ‘bigger’, and permanently so.  So, as has happened in England, I can see clubs who fall being able to come back, and possibly even prosper on return.  In the long-term some (many?) part-time clubs will yo-yo between the tiers.

Nobody will be doing much yo-yoing when they've to play 4 games to get promoted after winning their league.

Honestly can't see the 3 LL ex-SPFL sides getting back soon. Maybe Cowdenbeath will prove me wrong next season.

[Gordon EF]

14 minutes ago, EdinburghBlue said:

I think that’s why every part-time team is in danger. But that’s also why I disagree with those who argue that relegation is a one way door.  Most of those clubs who’ve been bottom at least once in the last forty years have been as high as the Championship.  And there aren’t many teams in the lower reaches of the pyramid who look obviously ‘bigger’, and permanently so.  So, as has happened in England, I can see clubs who fall being able to come back, and possibly even prosper on return.  In the long-term some (many?) part-time clubs will yo-yo between the tiers.

 

3 minutes ago, Jacksgranda said:

Nobody will be doing much yo-yoing when they've to play 4 games to get promoted after winning their league.

Honestly can't see the 3 LL ex-SPFL sides getting back soon. Maybe Cowdenbeath will prove me wrong next season.

The rate of movement back and forth is obviously heavily dependent on how many promotion and relegation spots are opened up in the years to come. But there should be more back and forth once the whole pyramid starts to equalise more and clubs gravitate towards their 'natural' level. We'll start to move towards a situation where there's a fairly smooth transition in size / potential / standard from League One down into the Lowland League, rather than strong clubs at the top of tier 6, dross at the bottom of tier 5, a handful of strong clubs at the top of tier 5, weaker clubs at the bottom of tier 4, etc.

You'll start to get the point where 5 or 6 clubs at the bottom of L2 and 5 or 6 clubs at the top of the LL are essentially interchangeable.

[1320Lichtie]

4 hours ago, Gordon EF said:

Also worth noting that the only currently long term part time SPFL clubs not to have finished bottom since the 4 league structure came in are Alloa, Peterhead, East Fife, Stenhousemuir, Stranraer, and Stirling. 

Only four have avoided the bottom 2 in that time - Peterhead, East Fife, Stenhousemuir, and Stranraer.

That's not to say these clubs are much safer, just shows that almost everyone has been there at some point, or been close. I'm sure Berwick and Brechin hadn't been near the bottom for years before they took their shit turns that eventually saw them relegated.

It’s not the same thing now. Before there was no threat.
 

I think everyone’s finally taken this whole thing serious now. That’s why for example ourselves and Montrose have got our acts together and why most of the teams you’d have down for the drop before it was even a thing, Cowden, Berwick, Shire have disappeared. Brechin perhaps more of a surprise but I would put good money on Albion Rovers being the next. 
 

Also probably why League 1 is such a strong league now. 

[Gordon EF]

31 minutes ago, 1320Lichtie said:

It’s not the same thing now. Before there was no threat.
 

I think everyone’s finally taken this whole thing serious now. That’s why for example ourselves and Montrose have got our acts together and why most of the teams you’d have down for the drop before it was even a thing, Cowden, Berwick, Shire have disappeared. Brechin perhaps more of a surprise but I would put good money on Albion Rovers being the next. 
 

Also probably why League 1 is such a strong league now. 

Agreed things have changed but I think you're talking nonsense here. Montrose were kicking about the bottom end of League Two for almost Two decades. It's not as if they just didn't see any point in becoming a decent League One side all that time.

On the other side of the coin, plenty of part time clubs have seen major regressions since the play-offs came in - Brechin, Dumbarton, Berwick, Cowdenbeath. Why would the pyramid play-offs be a motivator for Arbroath and Montrose but not these clubs. 

Arbroath and Montrose's recent success is almost certainly just the cyclical nature of part time football clubs in the SPFL. Aside from a very small number of clubs, most have been up at times and down at times. Both Arbroath and Montrose will be down again at some point.

[1320Lichtie]

Just now, Gordon EF said:

Agreed things have changed but I think you're talking nonsense here. Montrose were kicking about the bottom end of League Two for almost Two decades. It's not as if they just didn't see any point in becoming a decent League One side all that time.

On the other side of the coin, plenty of part time clubs have seen major regressions since the play-offs came in - Brechin, Dumbarton, Berwick, Cowdenbeath. Why would the pyramid play-offs be a motivator for Arbroath and Montrose but not these clubs. 

Arbroath and Montrose's recent success is almost certainly just the cyclical nature of part time football clubs in the SPFL. Aside from a very small number of clubs, most have been up at times and down at times. Both Arbroath and Montrose will be down again at some point.

I think it’s more to do with clubs just finding their natural order.... hence the way league 1 and league 2 looks now. It seems pretty obvious. The clubs that are better run and have more potential finding themselves moving up the leagues while the likes of Berwick, Cowden, Shire and no doubt the likes of Albion Rovers and Stranraer will find themselves out the leagues soon. I would put my mortgage on us never finishing in the bottom 2 of L2 ever again. Too much good works been done and it has all happened since we had that scare.
 

I think John Christison appointing Lumsden shows exactly the mindset old chairman and boards used to have pre the relegation spot, a complacent and completely old school uninspiring attitude towards the club. We were a league club and that was that. It’s actually embarrassing looking back at how half arsed things were 

[Jan Vojáček]

4 minutes ago, 1320Lichtie said:

I think it’s more to do with clubs just finding their natural order.... hence the way league 1 and league 2 looks now. It seems pretty obvious. The clubs that are better run and have more potential finding themselves moving up the leagues while the likes of Berwick, Cowden, Shire and no doubt the likes of Albion Rovers and Stranraer will find themselves out the leagues soon. I would put my mortgage on us never finishing in the bottom 2 of L2 ever again. Too much good works been done and it has all happened since we had that scare.
 

I think John Christison appointing Lumsden shows exactly the mindset old chairman and boards used to have pre the relegation spot, a complacent and completely old school uninspiring attitude towards the club. We were a league club and that was that. It’s actually embarrassing looking back at how half arsed things were 

Just out of interest, where would you say Arbroath's natural place would be these days?

I'd previously have said Sons' would probably be mid-table in League One. Occasionally flirting with promotion and relegation. We obviously had six seasons in the Championship too, but that was against clubs far bigger than us. Now with the likes of Cove, QP and Kelty all arriving on the scene with huge budgets I reckon we're probably somewhere between fourth in League Two and 7th in League One. Interchangeable with the likes of Stenny, Stirling Albion, Peterhead and Clyde.

A mixture of the pyramid and clubs being bankrolled generously has really shaken things up.

[Gordon EF]

7 minutes ago, 1320Lichtie said:

I think it’s more to do with clubs just finding their natural order.... hence the way league 1 and league 2 looks now. It seems pretty obvious. The clubs that are better run and have more potential finding themselves moving up the leagues while the likes of Berwick, Cowden, Shire and no doubt the likes of Albion Rovers and Stranraer will find themselves out the leagues soon. I would put my mortgage on us never finishing in the bottom 2 of L2 ever again. Too much good works been done and it has all happened since we had that scare.
 

I think John Christison appointing Lumsden shows exactly the mindset old chairman and boards used to have pre the relegation spot, a complacent and completely old school uninspiring attitude towards the club. We were a league club and that was that. It’s actually embarrassing looking back at how half arsed things were 

Of course clubs will move towards their 'natural' position but what happens is that they tend to ebb and flow around that. It really is ridiculous to pick Arbroath's best season in almost all of our lifetimes to decide that this is the actual natural order of things. Club after club have hit highs and would have said almost exactly what you're saying now. Do you think Clyde fans thought they'd end up bottom of the pile within years when they were a whisker away from the Premier in the 2000s? Or Brechin fans had any clue they were about to hurtle straight out of the SPFL when they won the Championship play-offs just a few years ago?

Christ, it wasn't that long ago that Falkirk were playing in Europe and Cowdenbeath were finishing 8th the Championship.

[Cold Feet]

Nobody should be complacent.

 

In the years pre pyramind, about 30 we were no place near the bottom of L2, in fact the worst we were was about mid L2 before we appointed Dick C. And whilst we were making hay the rest of the Angus Clubs mostly hogged L2. 

We were run by a Chairman and committee who had run their course but did not want to change or encourage fresh blood. No investment in the squad when we were in the Championship and a car crash of a season followed. That big kick in the stones resulted in one poor decision after another with managers being hired quickly with little thought - the worst being Barry Smith who spent the playing budget, played a few games and realised his signings were not up to it and then left.

 

Either way we high rock bottom and further fell into HL. It was only then that the old committee were removed and fresh ideas with a plan was set in motion. It has and will continue to take a lot of work to get back whilst unravelling the mess left behind. Their is new hope and connection with he community.

Point being every part time club are a few bad ideas from a few past sell by date committee members from being club 42.

Hopefully see you all soon.

[1320Lichtie]

1 minute ago, Jan Vojáček said:

Just out of interest, where would you say Arbroath's natural place would be these days?

I'd previously have said Sons' would probably be mid-table in League One. Occasionally flirting with promotion and relegation. We obviously had six seasons in the Championship too, but that was against clubs far bigger than us. Now with the likes of Cove, QP and Kelty all arriving on the scene with huge budgets I reckon we're probably somewhere between fourth in League Two and 7th in League One. Interchangeable with the likes of Stenny, Stirling Albion, Peterhead and Clyde.

A mixture of the pyramid and clubs being bankrolled generously has really shaken things up.

Based on last 3 seasons I would say top half league 1 with occasionally threatening Championship when other clubs having poor seasons. Then there’s obviously well backed clubs that come into that equation too who we are competing with right now (QP/Cove) and it’ll be interesting to see how all that plays out. Kelty too potentially in future but I’m not overly sure what will happen with them can kind of see them becoming a Montrose type level team.
 

But right now and since we’ve been in Championship there’s not much difference between ourselves and the likes of Ayr, Morton etc apart from what side of the PT/FT line were on and the PT one suits us. Actually see ourselves ahead of clubs like QoTs and even potentially Hamilton soon 

 

Bottom half of League 1 and top half of League 2 not much in it and I think that’ll interchange but I think the smaller clubs will circle the drain and go soon too. Although like I said somewhere else I don’t know how many clubs out with the pyramid are really that much better run or have as much potential as a lot of the teams already in and around league 2. Suppose the West maybe has a few ‘sleeping giants’ but who knows 

[1320Lichtie]

3 minutes ago, Gordon EF said:

Of course clubs will move towards their 'natural' position but what happens is that they tend to ebb and flow around that. It really is ridiculous to pick Arbroath's best season in almost all of our lifetimes to decide that this is the actual natural order of things. Club after club have hit highs and would have said almost exactly what you're saying now. Do you think Clyde fans thought they'd end up bottom of the pile within years when they were a whisker away from the Premier in the 2000s? Or Brechin fans had any clue they were about to hurtle straight out of the SPFL when they won the Championship play-offs just a few years ago?

Christ, it wasn't that long ago that Falkirk were playing in Europe and Cowdenbeath were finishing 8th the Championship.

No I don’t think that I think we have punched well above our station this season. See last post

[Am Featha Taigh Nan Clach]

I wonder if people struggling to feed their familes and heat their homes have simply tried getting their act together?

[1320Lichtie]

4 minutes ago, Am Featha *****h Nan Clach said:

I wonder if people struggling to feed their familes and heat their homes have simply tried getting their act together?

And some people just can’t because they sadly don’t have the ability to do so. Just like some football clubs and the pyramid should in reality let everyone find their place 

[Gordon EF]

11 minutes ago, 1320Lichtie said:

No I don’t think that I think we have punched well above our station this season. See last post

Do you think Arbroath will see L2 any time in the next 10-15 years?