Next to go?

[EdinburghBlue]

Number of times teams have finished bottom since we adopted a four league structure in Scotland:

 

East Stirlingshire - 8 (relegated)

Albion Rovers - 4 (relegated)

Montrose - 3

Brechin City - 2 (relegated)

Cowdenbeath - 2 (relegated)

Elgin City - 2

Queen’s Park - 2

Arbroath - 1

Berwick Rangers - 1 (relegated)

Clyde - 1

Dumbarton - 1

Forfar - 1

So almost any of our current part-time teams could finish bottom sometime over the next 10-15 years and could go, either if they were unlucky in a play-off, or automatically if automatic promotion/relegation is introduced.

 

So which team do you think is next to go, and why?

 

[ETA 22 March 2023

Highest/lowest points totals for teams finishing bottom 35 (Queen's Park 2001-02 and Cowdenbeath 2016-17) Albion Rovers 39 (2022-23) and 8 (East Stirlingshire 2003-4). Average just under 26.

Highest/lowest margins 22 (Albion Rovers 1994-95) and 0 (Albion Rovers 1995-96). Average margin between 9th and 10th just over 8 points.

Covid-affected seasons excluded though they would not change the highest/lowest teams/seasons if the analysis was done on a PPG basis.]

 

Edited June 3, 2023 by EdinburghBlue
More information added on average points and margins, and minor update for current season

[Guest mr_malcolm]

Cowdenbeath. They’re shite

[true fan]

Your team could be perfectly solid for 10, 12, 14 years then one bad season and boom, vaporised! Another team could be the next east Stirlingshire - bottom 3 or 4 times in the same period and stay up by the skin of their teeth.

Impossible to argue objectively against the pyramid but selfishly it’s not much fun playing with a trap door lying in wait. No team in the lower leagues is safe

[onecowden]

Your team could be perfectly solid for 10, 12, 14 years then one bad season and boom, vaporised! Another team could be the next east Stirlingshire - bottom 3 or 4 times in the same period and stay up by the skin of their teeth.
Impossible to argue objectively against the pyramid but selfishly it’s not much fun playing with a trap door lying in wait. No team in the lower leagues is safe

Absolutely nailed it. Nothing more to add.

[GordonS]

4 minutes ago, true fan said:

Your team could be perfectly solid for 10, 12, 14 years then one bad season and boom, vaporised! Another team could be the next east Stirlingshire - bottom 3 or 4 times in the same period and stay up by the skin of their teeth.

Impossible to argue objectively against the pyramid but selfishly it’s not much fun playing with a trap door lying in wait. No team in the lower leagues is safe

Hardly "vaporised", both the clubs that have gone down are carrying on just fine.

One bad-enough season should always be enough to get relegated. Isn't that how football is supposed to work?

Maybe it would feel like less of a trap-door if there were more relegation and promotion places, so more opportunity to get back up. 

[Aidan]

I'll nominate Cowdenbeath

[AsimButtHitsASix]

1 hour ago, true fan said:

Your team could be perfectly solid for 10, 12, 14 years then one bad season and boom, vaporised! Another team could be the next east Stirlingshire - bottom 3 or 4 times in the same period and stay up by the skin of their teeth.

Perfectly illustrated by Brechin who, in the 30 years I've been watching football, have never really been in danger of finishing bottom until the last two years. In the last decade (more?) the only two times they've been in the bottom tier have been the last two years. Could just as easily be Arbroath, Alloa or Dumbarton in five years time than Albion Rovers. Clyde were a couple of minutes from the top flight and ended up fannying about the bottom of the basement for a while. 
 

I wonder how many of the teams that come up will have lasting power themselves.

ETA: Albion Rovers next to go. 

Edited May 25, 2021 by AsimButtHitsASix

[onecowden]

I'll nominate Cowdenbeath

Nominations are not accepted. Predictions are allowed.

[Steakngravys Maw]

Has to be Cowdenbeath. A non existent fanbase and the worst stadium in the Scottish league. Absolutely nothing going for this club.

[LongTimeLurker]

Think having Kelty around will help boost interest in Cowdenbeath with derbies initially drawing 1000+ and that might help nudge them out of the drop zone for a year or two with a bit of a dead cat bounce effect.

I'll go for Albion Rovers as the next to go instead. Coatbridge just isn't interested in them so they are usually there or thereabouts anyway. Moving forward there will be too many ambitious WoS premier and LL clubs in for the same players offering better terms than would have been the case previously and that will finally tip them over the edge now three weak links from the east have gone.

[BFTD]

None of the part-timers are safe; any of us could be toast in two years' time (except Arbroath, the c***s). Hopefully that fact will help to focus minds on expanding the promotion/relegation to/from the SPFL in order to increase the chance that relegated clubs can clamber back. Alas, I wouldn't trust our clubs not to focus on the "more relegation spots = more chance of relegation" aspect and stick their heads in the sand.

Ideally, I think it'd be healthy to end up with a similar situation to England, where there ended up being so much traffic between the old Conference and the Football League that relegation isn't the disaster that it is here. I think now about half of the National League sides have been Football League clubs during my lifetime.

[Eric's Cantina]

Albion Rovers as it is one of the few grounds in the spfl i haven't been to

[afca32]

The prospect of going down doesn't scare me as much as it does fans of other clubs in this league. We spent most of our existence in the Highland League and would have many good derbies, cracking away days every other week and probably a good chance of finishing near the top each season and therefore the odd chance of a play off to get back up. I was miserable for the first half of the 2014/15 season though as I felt sure Brora would relegate us in the play off. And I still dream of watching us win the Champions League one day, which becomes harder to do in the Highland League.

In conclusion, I would be devastated to go down and would far rather be playing in the higher division. But there would be the odd perk that might make it more bearable.

Edited May 25, 2021 by afca32

[Tutankhamen]

Most clubs going down wouldn't seriously damage them although there's one or two i seriously worry about.

Small things like, who owns the stadium or is a leading shareholder owed money which in turn could force the sale of the ground. Could the club survive with no home ground?

Albion Rovers look the prime targets for the drop but so do a few others a lot further up the leagues.

If it can happen to Rangers, it can happen to anyone.

 

[Aberdeen Cowden]

2 hours ago, Aidan said:

I'll nominate Cowdenbeath

You can't be very old or must have a really bad memory.

[Tutankhamen]

It ain't only the SPFL league teams that need to worry about relegation.

So to will the LL clubs.

You could fill the LL alone with ex Junior teams.

I don't know if a BSC (Glasgow) or Cumbernauld Colts could handle the WoSFL.

[Tutankhamen]

2 hours ago, GordonS said:

Hardly "vaporised", both the clubs that have gone down are carrying on just fine.

One bad-enough season should always be enough to get relegated. Isn't that how football is supposed to work?

Maybe it would feel like less of a trap-door if there were more relegation and promotion places, so more opportunity to get back up. 

I wouldn't describe being miles off promotion just fine.

High possibity both clubs could end up relegated again this decade.

[BFTD]

20 minutes ago, afca32 said:

The prospect of going down doesn't scare me as much as it does fans of other clubs in this league. We spent most of our existence in the Highland League and would have many good derbies, cracking away days every other week and probably a good chance of finishing near the top each season and therefore the odd chance of a play off to get back up. I was miserable for the first half of the 2014/15 season though as I felt sure Brora would relegate us in the play off. And I still dream of watching us win the Champions League one day, which becomes harder to do in the Highland League.

In conclusion, I would be devastated to go down and would far rather be playing in the higher division. But there would be the odd perk that might make it more bearable.

Wasn't there some chat a while back about Elgin considering a drop back to the Highland League because SPFL life had become a bit dull?

It does seem to have been a remarkably uneventful streak. 21 years in a league with 10-30% turnover every season. Has anyone been in the fourth tier longer? I seem to remember Rochdale stuck around in the bottom drawer for thirty-odd years down south.

[Jimmy Shaker]

4 minutes ago, BFTD said:

Wasn't there some chat a while back about Elgin considering a drop back to the Highland League because SPFL life had become a bit dull?

The Northern Scot likes to run stories of that sort from time to time when they’ve nothing else to say. 

I doubt Elgin themselves would welcome a return. 

[afca32]

Just now, BFTD said:

Wasn't there some chat a while back about Elgin considering a drop back to the Highland League because SPFL life had become a bit dull?

It does seem to have been a remarkably uneventful streak. 21 years in a league with 10-30% turnover every season. Has anyone been in the fourth tier longer? I seem to remember Rochdale stuck around in the bottom drawer for thirty-odd years down south.

There was a bit of talk 15 odd years back but it was also because we were shite in that spell too.

I was thinking about this after our latest play off defeat. I think I'm right in saying that other than those in the top flight who haven't been relegated in decades, if ever, (Motherwell, Aberdeen and Celtic with Killie now off this list) no team in the SPFL has stayed in the same division longer than ourselves. Tbf it's been far from boring recently. Results on a week to week basis generally go from one extreme level of daftness to the other.