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Scottish currency to be worth less than pound.


Terry_Tibbs
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10 hours ago, BigDoddyKane said:

Quick question how does he work out that exports to england would drop by 15%, if Scottish currency is cheaper it would surely increase exports and possibly cancel out any border issues

If we take on face value that a border  with red tape etc would reduce our exports to England by 15% then the opposite is also true and imports from England would be similarly hit. Given that England exports more to us than vice versa that would leave a big gap in our markets that Scottish companies could fill.

You are correct that a cheaper currency would boost our exports, not just to England but worldwide.

Its too simplistic to  look at currency appreciation as good and currency depreciation as bad

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Changed his tune a bit. Mr MacKay writing in 2014 initially believed a Scottish currency was the best idea and initially it would be strong.

https://www.shetnews.co.uk/2014/03/31/independence-new-currency-is-best-option/

His decision to christen the new currency the "groat" 🤣 in the same article is perhaps quite illuminating with regards to where he is coming from. 

He is right however that a new currency, (it won't be the groat) even if it is a temporary adoption, is the correct move. As others have already said a new floating currency is nothing to be afraid of.  This is a wealthy resource rich stable Northern European country. 

7 years on from indyref1 ....given it was probably the prime reason for defeat....one would have hoped this issue would have been fully researched and concrete proposals put in place to allow critique and adjustment. The idea of having our own new currency needs time to settle in the minds of the Scottish electorate. The currency argument needs to be won before a new indyref is won.

Instead the current SNP leadership continue to ignore and downplay the issue. Embarrassing. It says it all about our prospects of gaining independence this decade.

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8 hours ago, HTG said:

What a load of shite this is. If the Scottish pound turned out to be worth exactly the same as the English pound, the cry would be "what's the point, you've no fiscal autonomy". If the Scottish pound were to be worth more than the English pound, there would be squeals from those keen to export to England being uncompetitive. If the Scottish pound is worth less than the English pound, you get this fucking drivel. 

It'll be what it is and we'll deal with the pluses and minuses like every other country on the planet. Or just adopt the Euro and be done with it. 

Independence is about the right to choose the destiny of your country, the right to vote for governments the majority of your citizens want to govern them and the responsibility to manage the day to day stuff. Scotland will be just fucking fine. If Ireland, Iceland, Norway, Denmark, Sweden, Belgium etc can manage it, what the f**k is it that makes Scotland so different - unless you think that the country next door to you is going to declare some sort of economic war and blockade you.  If that's the intention, just let us know so we can laugh like f**k at them and then get on with being a proper country who just happens to have a scorned neighbour with tinpot tendencies. Fwiw, that's not how England will behave despite a few beetroot faced arseholes howling at the moon about it. 

Utter pish.

You have it spot on.

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10 hours ago, HTG said:

What a load of shite this is. If the Scottish pound turned out to be worth exactly the same as the English pound, the cry would be "what's the point, you've no fiscal autonomy". If the Scottish pound were to be worth more than the English pound, there would be squeals from those keen to export to England being uncompetitive. If the Scottish pound is worth less than the English pound, you get this fucking drivel. 

It'll be what it is and we'll deal with the pluses and minuses like every other country on the planet. Or just adopt the Euro and be done with it. 

Independence is about the right to choose the destiny of your country, the right to vote for governments the majority of your citizens want to govern them and the responsibility to manage the day to day stuff. Scotland will be just fucking fine. If Ireland, Iceland, Norway, Denmark, Sweden, Belgium etc can manage it, what the f**k is it that makes Scotland so different - unless you think that the country next door to you is going to declare some sort of economic war and blockade you.  If that's the intention, just let us know so we can laugh like f**k at them and then get on with being a proper country who just happens to have a scorned neighbour with tinpot tendencies. Fwiw, that's not how England will behave despite a few beetroot faced arseholes howling at the moon about it. 

Utter pish.

I'm guessing you were pro Brexit considering you've just acknowledged you don't really care about any details and it's all ideological. You certainly can't have attacked Brexit supporters if this is how you feel? 

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17 minutes ago, Stormzy said:

I'm guessing you were pro Brexit considering you've just acknowledged you don't really care about any details and it's all ideological. You certainly can't have attacked Brexit supporters if this is how you feel? 

No, I'm pro understanding that no matter what the details are, there will be arseholes like you who will say they're the wrong details - no matter what position those details represent.  That's the thrust of the article in the original post. When the UK last devalued its currency everyone recognised that it makes little difference day to day, makes it easier to export and means going abroad is more expensive. On currency strength there are pros and cons on every situation as long as you don't become a Zimbabwe. There is zero chance of that happening so the rest of this is just noise. You know this of course - unless you're monumentally thick ...

Edited by HTG
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6 minutes ago, HTG said:

No, I'm pro understanding that no matter what the details are, there will be arseholes like you who will say they're the wrong details - no matter what position those details represent.  That's the thrust of the article in the original post. When the UK last devalued its currency everyone recognised that it makes little difference day to day, makes it easier to export and means going abroad is more expensive. On currency strength there are pros and cons on every situation as long as you don't become a Zimbabwe. There is zero chance of that happening so the rest of this is just noise. You know this of course - unless you're monumentally thick ...

All he’s saying is that it’s all about sovereignty.

You want to control your own affairs whatever the consequences. There will be pluses and minuses but you’ll deal with them.

Thats why I voted Brexit which I would guess you did also from reading your post.

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9 minutes ago, HTG said:

No, I'm pro understanding that no matter what the details are, there will be arseholes like you who will say they're the wrong details - no matter what position those details represent.  That's the thrust of the article in the original post. When the UK last devalued its currency everyone recognised that it makes little difference day to day, makes it easier to export and means going abroad is more expensive. On currency strength there are pros and cons on every situation as long as you don't become a Zimbabwe. There is zero chance of that happening so the rest of this is just noise. You know this of course - unless you're monumentally thick ...

Nice try but I wasn't disputing the economic argument at all, you weren't making one. What "details" have I said are false?

I was referring to this part of your post. 

 

10 hours ago, HTG said:

 

It'll be what it is and we'll deal with the pluses and minuses like every other country on the planet. Or just adopt the Euro and be done with it. 

Independence is about the right to choose the destiny of your country, the right to vote for governments the majority of your citizens want to govern them and the responsibility to manage the day to day stuff. Scotland will be just fucking fine. If Ireland, Iceland, Norway, Denmark, Sweden, Belgium etc can manage it, what the f**k is it that makes Scotland so different - unless you think that the country next door to you is going to declare some sort of economic war and blockade you.  If that's the intention, just let us know so we can laugh like f**k at them and then get on with being a proper country who just happens to have a scorned neighbour with tinpot tendencies. Fwiw, that's not how England will behave despite a few beetroot faced arseholes howling at the moon about it. 

Utter pish.

 

That's all ideological birthday caird pish that you could easily apply to Brexit, which is fair enough, that's how you feel and that's how you want to vote but surely you should afford the same courtesy to those that supported Brexit for similarly vague ideological reasons? 

I'm pretty sure you've been very vocal against how stupid the people were to vote for it. 

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4 minutes ago, BigDoddyKane said:

good point though could be argued he is kinda predicting an earthquake

It's hard to tell from that article. The arguments don't really flow and that might be because of the reporting, or just because they are shite arguments.

It looks like he is saying that income in Scotland would fall. That's a fairly sound conclusion to draw from trade theory and the likelihood of barriers to trade with England. It is the same argument that people made against Brexit. I can't see what figure he's put on fall that nor whether he thinks it's permanent. 

To my mind, it is inevitable that there would be a cost to the economy of going independent. I can't see how that's even being questioned. The more interesting questions are whether the benefits would outweigh those costs, by how much and over what time scale. Economics can privide a framework for attempting to answer those questions too. 

One (or even many) ideologically driven economists are making arguments against a policy you favour. That isn't a fault with economics or with all economists. 

 

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2 hours ago, coprolite said:

By this logic, plate tectonics is a load of shite because geologists can't predict earthquakes

Geologists are basically underground weathermen.

That came from a geologist I worked with. 

Nothing is known fully until it's drilled through and core samples taken.

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Stugeon's doing it on purpose! Deliberately keeping the currency weak to gain an unfair trading advantage.

But one question I have if we had a weaker currency, why would that mean higher prices? It even says in the article

On 21/05/2021 at 14:18, Terry_Tibbs said:

The bottom line is that average incomes in Scotland would be lower, although not by as much as 22 per cent

Doesn't this point contradict that?

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16 hours ago, jakedee said:

Where did you get that from?
I want investment in Scottish manufacturing, not just move it south to a marginal constituency to buy votes eg Rosyth,

DPB is massively into the construction of straw men.

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48 minutes ago, Juanhourjoe said:

Stugeon's doing it on purpose! Deliberately keeping the currency weak to gain an unfair trading advantage.

But one question I have if we had a weaker currency, why would that mean higher prices? It even says in the article

Doesn't this point contradict that?

A weaker currency means higher import prices.

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Scotland exports more than it imports.

A weaker currency could therefore be seen as a good thing. More people buying stuff we produce.

The UK imports far more than it exports. Thanks to Brexit voting morons who have significantly weakened the £, this is a bad thing. Prices will increase.

 

 

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1 hour ago, wirez said:

Scotland exports more than it imports.

A weaker currency could therefore be seen as a good thing. More people buying stuff we produce.

The UK imports far more than it exports. Thanks to Brexit voting morons who have significantly weakened the £, this is a bad thing. Prices will increase.

 

 

The pound has increased in value since Brexit.

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4 hours ago, lichtgilphead said:

That would be the same pound that was at 1.75 Euros in 2000, 1.50 Euros in 2007 & 1.40 Euros in 2015?

Today's value is 1.16.

If those figures are correct, you are being unfair. Using facts to prove a point? You'll get nowhere round here using tactics like that. 

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