Scottish Parliament 2021 Election Gambling & Predictor Thread

[NotThePars]

Up until a few months ago I thought it was a broad good that the SNP had to rely on Greens for getting stuff through but they'll happily vote with the Tories if they require blocking any good shit so they might as well get a majority and see how that fucks with the parliament.

[DeeTillEhDeh]

 
Not sure what to make of this - the polls last time consistently over estimated SNP and Green support by a couple of percentage points so if that repeats then it suggests the SNP miss a majority.  I just think that the SNP will win a majority, I think that the polls are underestimating their support.  I think that the pandemic will win them a lot of support from older voters who are the group previously least likely to vote for them.  I think they'll win a majority, by a few seats as well.
I have no evidence for this of course.  Perhaps we'll see Alliance For Unity sweep to power.

One other group they've forgotten about - women.

[Salt n Vinegar]

Bet365 can't make its mind up between an overall majority or no overall majority - both are 17/20. 

[D Angelo Barksdale]

Put me down for the full banter result, SNP 1 short of an overall majority, Alba 2 seats including Salmond, Greens 12+ and the Lib Dems down to 2 or 3.

[GordonS]

5 hours ago, Billy Jean King said:

22 hours ago, GordonS said:

If you're confident about the SNP, now would be a good time to get on. They're level with the Tories on 10/11 in Ayr, and well behind Labour at 11/8 in Dumbarton and 6/5 in East Lothian. They're still 2/5 favourites in Perth etc, which I think is stingy. Tories on 13/8 there look good, but I'm never putting money on the Tories.

I'd be surprised if John Scott didn't hang on in Ayr. They seem confident he will.

If the polls are right then the Tories have to be down somewhere. In 2016 the SNP lead over the Tories was 24% on the constituency vote. This time, apart from the ComRes poll, all the polls in the last week show a 27% to 32% lead.

Of course, the polls in the last week before the 2016 election showed a 26% to 28% lead too. 

My gut instinct is that the Tories will be a little down where they don't need the votes and level or up where they do need them, but I think Edinburgh Central will go, Aberdeenshire West will probably go and Ayr is 50-50. They'll keep all their southern seats and Eastwood, and I think Perthshire South & Kinrosshire is definitely in the balance.

[AMMjag]

On 22/04/2021 at 09:29, G51 said:

If anywhere is giving odds on Alba O/U 0.5 seats, then let me know. I really fancy the under and I think there will be good odds for it.

 

6 hours ago, Marshmallo said:

Even money for 0 seats on McBookie

Skybet offering 6/5 on 0.

[sparky88]

13 hours ago, superbigal said:

Alba Evens no seats is tempting me. As long as I don't read a daily record article which has them taking the white house.

Not going to put money on it, but j suspect there's a strong element of SNP constituency voters getting the fear and voting SNP on the list when they are in the comfort of the voting booth. It might explain why polling has overestimated the Greens in previous elections. 

 

Edited May 6, 2021 by sparky88

[dirty dingus]

I can see the greens getting a dozen or so MSPs due to Netflix. My nephew recommended Seaspiracy during lock down saying him and all his mates loved it and started rattling off all the other eco docs on there. They don't read papers or watch the news so get all their views from social media which seems to aid the greens and nationalists.  Whether they get out to vote is another thing.

[Caledonian1]

15 hours ago, superbigal said:

Alba Evens no seats is tempting me. As long as I don't read a daily record article which has them taking the white house.

people still read the Daily Record?

[GordonS]

48 minutes ago, ThatBoyRonaldo said:

This is pretty much my opinion on it - no point overthinking it.

For what it's worth I've heard turnout is high - 70% at my local polling station according to the presiding officer and similar in other areas I've heard about which would be a pretty huge increase on the norm.

On the betting topic, 7/1 for SNP to take North East Fife seemed like very good value to me.

They overestimated SNP in 2016 and 2017, but underestimated them in 2011 and by more in 2019. There's no basis for speculating what way they might be out this time.

Looks like Paddy Power have closed their books on the Scottish election already, which is disappointing. Anybody know of any others offering odds on constituencies?

[superbigal]

Alba Evens no seats is tempting me. As long as I don't read a daily record article which has them taking the white house.

Kerching

[ICTChris]

On 05/05/2021 at 16:45, ICTChris said:

 

Not sure what to make of this - the polls last time consistently over estimated SNP and Green support by a couple of percentage points so if that repeats then it suggests the SNP miss a majority.  I just think that the SNP will win a majority, I think that the polls are underestimating their support.  I think that the pandemic will win them a lot of support from older voters who are the group previously least likely to vote for them.  I think they'll win a majority, by a few seats as well.

I have no evidence for this of course.  Perhaps we'll see Alliance For Unity sweep to power.

I was wrong about this.  The SNP support held up and grew slightly but I had genuinely expected them to get a majority and break 50% of the vote.  The fact that we basically have the same make up of Parliament as we did five years ago seems mad but, with the benefit of hindsight, maybe unsurprising.  I had also thought an increased turnout would push the SNP higher but it didn't seem to.  For all the talk about another indepdence referendum being divisive we are already divided, this is the situation for the foreseeable future.

Regarding the polling it seems like the consituency polls overestimated the SNP vote but underestimated their list vote, going by a quick glance over the following

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2021_Scottish_Parliament_election

Most polls also overestimated the Green vote on the lists - Curtice post above has them at 10% but they came out at 8%.   Of the 27 polls in the two months before the election on that link, four had Green support less than 8%, five had them on 8% but 18 had them over that.  I guess it's quite difficult to predict these lower levels of votes, hence why a few polls crazily predicted stuff like Alliance For Unity and Alba winning seats and gave the SSP 3%.

[craigkillie]

On 10/05/2021 at 10:48, ICTChris said:

I was wrong about this.  The SNP support held up and grew slightly but I had genuinely expected them to get a majority and break 50% of the vote.  The fact that we basically have the same make up of Parliament as we did five years ago seems mad but, with the benefit of hindsight, maybe unsurprising.  I had also thought an increased turnout would push the SNP higher but it didn't seem to.  For all the talk about another indepdence referendum being divisive we are already divided, this is the situation for the foreseeable future.

Regarding the polling it seems like the consituency polls overestimated the SNP vote but underestimated their list vote, going by a quick glance over the following

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2021_Scottish_Parliament_election

Most polls also overestimated the Green vote on the lists - Curtice post above has them at 10% but they came out at 8%.   Of the 27 polls in the two months before the election on that link, four had Green support less than 8%, five had them on 8% but 18 had them over that.  I guess it's quite difficult to predict these lower levels of votes, hence why a few polls crazily predicted stuff like Alliance For Unity and Alba winning seats and gave the SSP 3%.

Not sure about the vote percentage, but the Greens most likely would have taken 10 seats if some of the people who wanted to vote for them hadn't mistakenly voted for "Independent Green Voice".