Scottish Parliament 2021 Election Gambling & Predictor Thread

[Salt n Vinegar]

In the name of the wee man... WT actual F?? 

"WILLIE Rennie has cast doubt on whether an SNP majority in the next Holyrood parliament would be a "legitimate" mandate for a second independence referendum.

The Scottish Liberal Democrat leader said there were "many factors" to a mandate, including the conduct of the election campaign, not simply parliamentary arithmetic."

From the Herald at https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/19256518.willie-rennie-queries-snp-majority-legitimate-indyref2-mandate/

[DAFC.]

SNP majority or not is like a coin toss the way thing are with this voting system. Unionist media will see it as a massive loss for SNP and the wider independence movement if they get 61-64 seats whilst the Greens take home at least 8 MSPs to ultimately put more pro-indy MSPs in parliament for the 3rd election in a row. 

It would be funny to see the meltdown from the Unionists if the SNP get 65 seats. 

[GiGi]

16 minutes ago, DAFC. said:

SNP majority or not is like a coin toss the way thing are with this voting system. Unionist media will see it as a massive loss for SNP and the wider independence movement if they get 61-64 seats whilst the Greens take home at least 8 MSPs to ultimately put more pro-indy MSPs in parliament for the 3rd election in a row. 

It would be funny to see the meltdown from the Unionists if the SNP get 65 seats. 

Yeah, you can guarantee certain journalists would lead "SNP FAIL to achieve majority" or likewise in the headlines even with 70+ pro indy MSPs.

[Salt n Vinegar]

6 minutes ago, GiGi said:

Yeah, you can guarantee certain journalists would lead "SNP FAIL to achieve majority" or likewise in the headlines even with 70+ pro indy MSPs.

I'm also not entirely surprised that when discussing the likelihood of an SNP overall majority the journalists never mention the difficulties of doing that in a PR system.  Under PR systems minority or coalition governments are the norm, not a "failure".  That's why the SNP majority was such a stunning success when it happened. To do it again in a few days time with so many parties standing would be brilliant, especially with three large political forces actively campaigning against a major plank of the SNPs platform. 

[Caledonian1]

23 minutes ago, Salt n Vinegar said:

I'm also not entirely surprised that when discussing the likelihood of an SNP overall majority the journalists never mention the difficulties of doing that in a PR system.  Under PR systems minority or coalition governments are the norm, not a "failure".  That's why the SNP majority was such a stunning success when it happened. To do it again in a few days time with so many parties standing would be brilliant, especially with three large political forces actively campaigning against a major plank of the SNPs platform. 

Incredible to think that the SNP could win 64 out f the 73 constituency MSPs and it be called a failure.  OK it's first past the post but imagine if the Tories won 87% of the seats in the UK  - would that be seen as failure?

[Antlion]

7 hours ago, Salt n Vinegar said:

I'm also not entirely surprised that when discussing the likelihood of an SNP overall majority the journalists never mention the difficulties of doing that in a PR system.  Under PR systems minority or coalition governments are the norm, not a "failure".  That's why the SNP majority was such a stunning success when it happened. To do it again in a few days time with so many parties standing would be brilliant, especially with three large political forces actively campaigning against a major plank of the SNPs platform. 

I’m sure we’ll find overlap between those who would condemn the SNP being the largest party without an overall majority as a massive failure and those who grinningly and gleefully celebrate Johnson’s victorious whopping majority on a comparatively smaller share of the vote. These people are c***s.

Edited April 26, 2021 by Antlion

[ayrmad]

SNP 47% on constituency. 

SNP 33-36% on list. 

[superbigal]

I'm suprised most think Willie Rennie is a shoe in to retain in his seat in North East Fife Riviera.  @getwillyoot

 

[GordonS]

50 minutes ago, superbigal said:

I'm suprised most think Willie Rennie is a shoe in to retain in his seat in North East Fife Riviera.  @getwillyoot

 

He's the obvious anti-SNP candidate in a constituency where the SNP have never got more than 37%. In 2014 No got 55% across Fife, and it will have been much, much higher than that in NE Fife. 

There's a long Lib Dem tradition there and he's palatable to both Tory and Labour voters. In 2003 the Tories got just under 29% (way above their national 16.6%); last time they got 16.6%, so there's obviously a lot of tactical voting going on. 

[superbigal]

2 hours ago, GordonS said:

He's the obvious anti-SNP candidate in a constituency where the SNP have never got more than 37%. In 2014 No got 55% across Fife, and it will have been much, much higher than that in NE Fife. 

There's a long Lib Dem tradition there and he's palatable to both Tory and Labour voters. In 2003 the Tories got just under 29% (way above their national 16.6%); last time they got 16.6%, so there's obviously a lot of tactical voting going on. 

As a lifelong resident believe me I know.

Took Ming Campbell a few attempts to overturn a traditional Tory safeseat when I started voting.

But compared to Ming, Oor Willy is a hofwit.

Edited April 29, 2021 by superbigal

[Caledonian1]

3 hours ago, superbigal said:

I'm suprised most think Willie Rennie is a shoe in to retain in his seat in North East Fife Riviera.  @getwillyoot

 

@getwillyoot - that will get you arrested and on the sex offenders register

[Highland Capital]

I'm going to make a slightly different prediction here and that is that it seems inevitable that the Tories will have a bad night (or end of the week).  Douglas Ross will resign as leader and choose not to take his seat and instead give the seat to the next person on the Tory H&I list.  I know it's been done before, but if tries to be both an MP and an MSP at the same time, after a while there'd be calls to give one of them up and he won't give up his Westminster seat as it would trigger a by-election and he only just squeezed back in last time.

[John Lambies Doos]

I'm going to make a slightly different prediction here and that is that it seems inevitable that the Tories will have a bad night (or end of the week).  Douglas Ross will resign as leader and choose not to take his seat and instead give the seat to the next person on the Tory H&I list.  I know it's been done before, but if tries to be both an MP and an MSP at the same time, after a while there'd be calls to give one of them up and he won't give up his Westminster seat as it would trigger a by-election and he only just squeezed back in last time.

If SNP get majority, Dross will resign

[Kejan]

Any predictions with 3 days to go?

My mind changes daily, but right now, I'll go with  - (I think this adds up to 129) If it doesn't, take 1-2 seats off the SNP.

SNP 64- I think they'll just miss a majority. Tactical voting will keep odious creeps like ACH as the MSPs for Edinburgh Western and Jackie Baillie.

Tories 25 - they'll lose seats, but not too many. Hope I'm wrong and they ship 10 or so, but reckon closer to 5-6 losses.

Labour 21 - a lot of talk of gains, and their vote might well increase in certain regions or areas, but it'll be there or threabouts as the last time in the number of seats.

Greens 10 - polls are looking decent for them, and non-scientific evidence of 3 people I know who were SNPx2 last time have went SNP/Green in the NE of Scotland too, 10 might be a bit too optimistic, but they will definitely increase their numbers.

Libs 6 - reckon they'll gain a couple of seats on the list thanks to Unionists who maybe went Tory last time.

Alba 2 - I know the polls are a bity all over the place with Alba, but I reckon they'll surely get over 5-6% to get Salmond in the NE ; and maybe mid/central Scotland, they'll get another one in? They could end up RISE like numbers in places like Borders, East Lothian etc yet I think Fife, Angus, Dundee, etc they'll do better. Feck knows though. 

 

Edited May 3, 2021 by Kejan

[Inanimate Carbon Rod]

46 minutes ago, Kejan said:

Any predictions with 3 days to go?

My mind changes daily, but right now, I'll go with  - (I think this adds up to 129) If it doesn't, take 1-2 seats off the SNP.

SNP 64- I think they'll just miss a majority. Tactical voting will keep odious creeps like ACH as the MSPs for Edinburgh Western and Jackie Baillie.

Tories 25 - they'll lose seats, but not too many. Hope I'm wrong and they ship 10 or so, but reckon closer to 5-6 losses.

Labour 21 - a lot of talk of gains, and their vote might well increase in certain regions or areas, but it'll be there or threabouts as the last time in the number of seats.

Greens 10 - polls are looking decent for them, and non-scientific evidence of 3 people I know who were SNPx2 last time have went SNP/Green in the NE of Scotland too, 10 might be a bit too optimistic, but they will definitely increase their numbers.

Libs 6 - reckon they'll gain a couple of seats on the list thanks to Unionists who maybe went Tory last time.

Alba 2 - I know the polls are a bity all over the place with Alba, but I reckon they'll surely get over 5-6% to get Salmond in the NE ; and maybe mid/central Scotland, they'll get another one in? They could end up RISE like numbers in places like Borders, East Lothian etc yet I think Fife, Angus, Dundee, etc they'll do better. Feck knows though. 

 

I get your point about tactical voting saving ACH etc but ive followed the Dumbarton race quite closely, just seems like the SNP guy is quite underwhelming, hes not ‘offering’ anything, he’s not really bringing much to the race in terms of personality or likeability, which when you consider its the arch bishop of better together he’s up against seems like a bit of an own goal. Its not that a politician has to be all about the personality, its just from social media etc he just isnt showing any, its not really about what hes going to do locally and more about the national snp manifesto etc. He’s basically campaigning on the indy stuff and not so much on what he’s going to deliver. Jackie Baillie is genuinely horrific but she appeals to all the wee shy tory voters and base staff in Helensburgh so that coupled with the historical labour vote in Dumbarton might get her re-elected. Her majority was decimated last time, it all depends on who gets out to vote on thursday. It should be an absolute shooty-inny to beat Baillie, she closed the local A&E, she brought PFI into the areas schools and has a generally shite local record. I hope she’s punted but i can see her getting back in if she manages to get the Helensburgh vote out behind her.

[GordonS]

If you're confident about the SNP, now would be a good time to get on. They're level with the Tories on 10/11 in Ayr, and well behind Labour at 11/8 in Dumbarton and 6/5 in East Lothian. They're still 2/5 favourites in Perth etc, which I think is stingy. Tories on 13/8 there look good, but I'm never putting money on the Tories.

Edited May 5, 2021 by GordonS

[ICTChris]

 

Not sure what to make of this - the polls last time consistently over estimated SNP and Green support by a couple of percentage points so if that repeats then it suggests the SNP miss a majority.  I just think that the SNP will win a majority, I think that the polls are underestimating their support.  I think that the pandemic will win them a lot of support from older voters who are the group previously least likely to vote for them.  I think they'll win a majority, by a few seats as well.

I have no evidence for this of course.  Perhaps we'll see Alliance For Unity sweep to power.

Edited May 5, 2021 by ICTChris

[Billy Jean King]

If you're confident about the SNP, now would be a good time to get on. They're level with the Tories on 10/11 in Ayr, and well behind Labour at 11/8 in Dumbarton and 6/5 in East Lothian. They're still 2/5 favourites in Perth etc, which I think is stingy. Tories on 13/8 there look good, but I'm never putting money on the Tories.

I'd be surprised if John Scott didn't hang on in Ayr. They seem confident he will.

[superbigal]

Alba Evens no seats is tempting me. As long as I don't read a daily record article which has them taking the white house.

[Marshmallo]

On 22/04/2021 at 09:29, G51 said:

If anywhere is giving odds on Alba O/U 0.5 seats, then let me know. I really fancy the under and I think there will be good odds for it.

Even money for 0 seats on McBookie