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Kejan

Scottish Parliament 2021 Election Gambling & Predictor Thread

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Apologies for another election thread, but I was thinking of a new one where folk could add their predictions about how the election will go. We've seen over the last 7 years since 2014 that polls can be wrong and parties can even under or over-perform their polling in some elections.

Feel free to change your mind, or revise your prediction as much as you want ; nae rules here. Feel free to edit, amend or add at later dates too. 

Right now... I feel there will be a majority of pro-independence parties by the end of the results. Possibly around the mid 70s mark for seats belonging to pro-indy MSPs :  SNP 63 ; Greens 8 ; Alba 1-2. SNP will win lots of constituencies, but there will no doubt be a few surprises in there (wonder if Angus Robertson's odds are a bit over inflated, he was something like 2/7 on to win the constituency he's going for).

SNP - similar to what they are just now, either up or down a couple. 

Tories - lose between 5-12 seats depending on the evening. Down to at least 25.

Labour - they'll gain 5-6 seats, and (hopefully) overtake the Tories to be the second biggest party. It'll be a weekend of, this is the start of our comeback in Scotland etc..zzzzz

Greens - will make gains, and possibly get in to double figures. Being out the loop a bit, hardly anecdotal evidence but it's something... I know of 6 people who were thinking of SNP/Green ; three went through with it and the other three went SNP/SNP on their postal vote. Depending on motivation, turnout and wavers stuck between SNP or even Alba ; will be the judge if they get to 10/11 or just short. They'll surely gain at least 1-2!

Lib Dems - they'll stay roughly the same. They have to be down to their core vote and they'll hold their four constituencies. By then end, they'll be either down or up 1-2 MSPs depending on the final list votes probably. 

Alba - PB has them at 6%, others are 2-3%. I think they'll win at least one seat and it'll be in the NE. Whilst Salmond is unpopular with many ; he's also popular with a very vocal minority and seems to still have some sway in his Aberdeenshire region. You'll no doubt get folk giving him a vote who are not that political, or even do so just to see what he can do in Holyrood. I may be well off the boil, but I wonder if Alba will be a case of polling something like 6-10% in old SNP heartlands? Whilst doing absolutely nothing in other more central belt areas? I'll go with 2 right now. I may well have them down to 0 or 1 in a week's time,  but I think they might do enough to get representation. 

The Others - I wonder if Galloway's mob will have enough to get themselves a seat e.g will they get tactical Tories backing them in enough numbers. Although there is the Reform Party led by an ex-Tory MSP from the south/Borders, not sure how (un)popular she is but some hardcore Unionists in the south  might be stuck to back A4U or Reform.

SSP? A real  shame what happened, and gave them my first ever vote in 03, probably at best be looking at 2% of the vote! Andy Wightman! Might seem a bridge too far, but you never know - would be good if he could do it.

Gambling wise - not seen many odds or bets offered yet ; but I had a check last week which had SNP majority 8/11, no-majority 2/1 with Paddy Power which looked too good to not back. I emailed 365 about it, and got a basically "if we do it, we'll do it nearer the time," so doesn't fill me with too much optimism there will be much of a market there? 

I'd be looking at Labour for second ; Alba over 0.5 seats ; and maybe some special constituencies. 

 

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Nobody seems arsed about this. Going to guess the SNP have a relatively poor night and fail to secure a majority.

The Greens don't hit close to what they're being predicted.

The Tories remain the second party.

Sarwar sees a modest recovery but remain in third place.

Alba see enough of a boost in certain regions to get a minimum of 2 MSPs.

Galloway doesn't hit four figures for his party.

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SNP win a thin majority due to a near clean up on the constituencies. They won all but 14 of the constituencies and I think roughly half of those 14 could turn yellow this time, which would be enough to give them a wafer thin overall majority.

 

Alba will be on the outside looking in. Most of the "supermajority" types will give the Greens their second vote, and they'll improve slightly on their tally from last time.

 

Total finger in the air guess

 

SNP: 66 (+3)

Conservatives: 25 (-7)

Labour: 24 (-)

Greens: 8 (+2)

Lib Dems: 7 (+2)

 

Alex Salmond will miss out on a seat by a few hundred votes

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3 hours ago, Kejan said:

SSP? A real  shame what happened, and gave them my first ever vote in 03, probably at best be looking at 2% of the vote! Andy Wightman! Might seem a bridge too far, but you never know - would be good if he could do it.

The SSP are sitting this election out.

I could see Alba winning a seat but I can't see them getting getting more than two at most.  Would be interesting to see what would happen if they did win a seat or two and Salmond wasn't one of them.

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SNP - I don't think they'll take many constituencies, because of tactical voting against them. They'll pick up East Lothian, Edinburgh Central, probably Ayr, probably Aberdeenshire West, maybe a few others. The constituencies they win in the South will be cancelled out on the list. Overall I don't think they'll get a majority, it's just too far away. Thinking of putting money on this one but the odds aren't tempting.

Tories - hard to predict where their vote will decline - as seems likely. If it's in seats they currently hold, they'll haemorrhage to the SNP; what I think will happen is that they lose a lot in constituencies they don't hold, especially the central belt, but mostly retain them where they do. Eastwood will be close. They could pick up Perthshire South & Kinrosshire, with Roseanna standing down - she's the longest serving parliamentarian in the Scottish Parliament, and the Tories are fielding a sitting MSP. I doubt it, but it's very much the kind of surprise we usually get.

Labour - A nothing election. Jackie Baillie will cling on, because that's what she does. They'll keep Edinburgh Southern. Expectations are so low that they'll be happy with their weekend.

Greens - could be a tougher election that it looks. If Labour and the Tories lose constituencies then they'll become more competitive on the lists, so the threshold for that 7th seat will go up. The Green vote could go up without them gaining many seats. They're at that level where it's very hard to predict.

Lib Dems - keep their constituencies, nothing new on the lists, as they were.

Others - I'd definitely put money on Alba not getting more than one. I doubt we'll see any party get over 2% in any region, Wightman will get more than that but I can't see him getting more than 5%. That's pure guesswork though. I wouldn't be surprised if neither he nor the Greens got a seat in H&I.

Nailed on SNP & Green majority though.

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2/1 on SNP not to get a majority is a good price. I would be all over that. 

You are getting 2/1 on a coin toss IMO

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If anywhere is giving odds on Alba O/U 0.5 seats, then let me know. I really fancy the under and I think there will be good odds for it.

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2 minutes ago, G51 said:

If anywhere is giving odds on Alba O/U 0.5 seats, then let me know. I really fancy the under and I think there will be good odds for it.

This is about as close as I could find but I'd need better odds to tempt me to spend some cash

https://smarkets.com/event/42133028/politics/uk/2021-scottish-parliament-election/alba-party-to-win-a-scottish-parliament-seat

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ComRes have a poll out today that has Others on 7% in the list vote.  Alba aren't included in the Others - who the f**k are people saying they are going to vote for?

The poll also shows drops for SNP in both the list and consittuency but still winning both by miles.

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1 minute ago, Pato said:

This is about as close as I could find but I'd need better odds to tempt me to spend some cash

https://smarkets.com/event/42133028/politics/uk/2021-scottish-parliament-election/alba-party-to-win-a-scottish-parliament-seat

Interesting. I think the market has it right, I'd say it's a coin flip. Thought you might get something around 6/4 for it though.

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2 minutes ago, G51 said:

Interesting. I think the market has it right, I'd say it's a coin flip. Thought you might get something around 6/4 for it though.

pretty measly sums on smarkets though, I think a big whale yes da putting the hoose on them getting an MSP could move those a lot

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2 hours ago, invergowrie arab said:

2/1 on SNP not to get a majority is a good price. I would be all over that. 

You are getting 2/1 on a coin toss IMO

Who's that with?

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5 hours ago, GordonS said:

Who's that with?

That's what OP said on PP.

Having looked myself it's now 11/10 so they are obviously taking notice of what a keen political observer like myself is saying.

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9 hours ago, Caledonian1 said:

SNP 65 seats
Conservatives 23
Labour 24
Greens 12
Lib Democrats 4
Alba 1

If that comes true I will buy you a pint or five.

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8 hours ago, It's my pancreas, John. said:

I expect ALBA pick up after a decent PPB and manifesto launch.    They won't poll well everywhere but Sleepy cuddles is a popular message in the NE.  

No wonder the sheep always look startled.

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2 hours ago, invergowrie arab said:

That's what OP said on PP.

Having looked myself it's now 11/10 so they are obviously taking notice of what a keen political observer like myself is saying.

Am I looking in the wrong place? The only odds I can see on PP are:

Screenshot 2021-04-22 at 18.18.43.png

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For a long time now i have been convinced the SNP will get between 62-66 seats so i am going to split difference

SNP 64, Greens 7, ALBA 1, Labour 24 , Tories 28 , LD's 5. 

I think SNP will get around 47.8% of constituency vote and around 38.9 % on List. I think the Greens will get around 8.9% on List vote and ALBA about 2.8% although they might get over 5% in North East region.

 

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13 hours ago, Granny Danger said:

If that comes true I will buy you a pint or five.

How about we just agree on five right now - saving time later.

It is maybe wishful thinking but I cant see too many constituencies being lost, indeed, very little change (although I am determined that we end the embarrassment of having landed gentry Alexander Burnett representing Aberdeenshire West) 

I definitely see the Greens gains being one of the big stories of the election - I have decided to vote for them on the list for a number of reasons - first and foremost I like a lot of their policies (and perhaps should do anyway as I work in offshore renewables) I like the co-leaders and believe increased representation and say at Holyrood is a good thing for the parliament..  Furthermore, I was impressed with Harvie when he spoke about wanting Scotland to be a republic and binning this centuries out of date monarchy.  Finally, I could have been tempted to vote Alba but so many of their supporters are just too aggressive and anti-SNP / anti-Nicola that I just would not feel comfortable voting for them (a quick look at Wings is all that is needed to decide against voting Alba - a shame as I like the idea of multi-party support for independence.  

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