Closing stretch...thoughts, considerations and predictions

[TxRover 882]

So the final run looks as follows:

Friday, 9/4/21

Hearts v Alloa

Saturday, 10/4/21

Ayr v Dunfermline

Dundee v Morton

QoS v ICT

Raith v Arbroath

Tuesday, 13/4/21

Dunfermline v Dundee

QoS v Raith

Saturday, 17/4/21

Alloa v Raith

Arbroath v Ayr

Dunfermline v QoS

Tuesday, 20/4/21

ICT v Dundee

Morton v Hearts

Saturday, 24/4/21

Ayr v QoS

Dundee v Raith

Dunfermline v Arbroath

Hearts v ICT

Morton v Alloa

Friday, 30/4/21

Alloa v Dunfermline

Arbroath v Morton

ICT v Ayr

 QoS v Dundee

Raith v Hearts

 

Advantage and disadvantage?

Hearts -  No match while Raith and Dunfermline play 3 games and Dundee play 2 between Hearts Alloa and Morton matches. If they lose to or draw Alloa, a very twitchy period could ensue. Still clearly expected to win the league...and winning it early might result in a foot off the throttle versus ICT and Raith (and, perhaps, Dundee?).

Raith - Three in a row on the road coming up soon, plus closing with Dundee away and Hearts at home. Looks a formidable challenge, but the playoffs seem likely for a team that has played as a team and over performed this season.

Dundee - Same three away games as Raith, but not in a row. Game versus ICT seems the toughest challenge, outwith the Raith game where they come in on short rest. Certainly more in form recently and look likely for the playoffs, though how McPake let them get into this position is crazy.

ICT - The in form team of the league, but a mix of two tough matches and two (relatively) easier possible banana skins. Surely the favorite to be the third playoff team.

Dunfermline - Sucking wind after a truly abysmal series of games, but still with a chance to reverse events. Have the easiest lineup of opponents for the final five games, but unless they can get their heads right with ball, that easiest lineup might eat them alive as they all scramble for points to avoid the trapdoor. I really have no idea what will happen, and the same can probably be said for Crawford.

QoS - After a very impressive run, they have cooled off. Completely sliding back into the relegation zone is possible, but very unlikely...however they face a murder’s row of games in then final stretch. Has AJ secured his job?

Ayr - Facing a mix of teams, the game versus Arbroath could be the margin for safety. Likely to remain safe.

Arbroath - Probably control their own destiny with the Ayr and Morton matches, however winner of Arbroath v Morton on the 30th is likely to be 8th a s the loser 9th.

Morton - Next two is Dundee and Hearts, but if this season has shown anything, it’s that anything is possible. That being said, still the favorites to be 9th, but the must win is likely versus Alloa, and that might setup the last day showdown with Arbroath for 8th.

Alloa - Done, but able to sew chaos and excitement, and have shown they are perfectly capable of doing it. Highly unlike to finish anywhere but last.
 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited Thursday at 01:36 by TxRover

[DeeTillEhDeh 6,873]

7 minutes ago, TxRover said:

So the final run looks as follows:

Friday, 9/4/21

Hearts v Alloa

Saturday, 10/4/21

Ayr v Dunfermline

Dundee v Morton

QoS v ICT

Raith v Arbroath

Tuesday, 13/4/21

Dunfermline v Dundee

QoS v Raith

Saturday, 17/4/21

Alloa v Raith

Arbroath v Ayr

Dunfermline v QoS

Tuesday, 20/4/21

ICT v Dundee

Morton v Hearts

Saturday, 24/4/21

Ayr v QoS

Dundee v Raith

Dunfermline v Arbroath

Hearts v ICT

Morton v Alloa

Friday, 30/4/21

Alloa v Dunfermline

Arbroath v Morton

ICT v Ayr

 QoS v Dundee

Raith v Hearts

 

Advantage and disadvantage?

Hearts -  No match while Raith and Dunfermline play 3 games and Dundee play 2 between Hearts Alloa and Morton matches. If they lose to or draw Alloa, a very twitchy period could ensue. Still clearly expected to win the league...and winning it early might result in a foot off the throttle versus ICT and Raith (and, perhaps, Dundee?).

Raith - Three in a row on the road coming up soon, plus closing with Dundee away and Hearts at home. Looks a formidable challenge, but the playoffs seem likely for a team that has played as a team and over performed this season.

Dundee - Same three away as Raith, but not in a row. Game versus Hearts might be a hearts chance to clinch, which is a disadvantage compared to Raith. Certainly more in form recently and look likely for the playoffs, though how McPake let them get into this position is crazy.

ICT - The in form team of the league, but a mix of two tough matches and two (relatively) easier possible banana skins. Surely the favorite to be the third playoff team.

Dunfermline - Sucking wind after a truly abysmal series of games, but still with a chance to reverse events. Have the easiest lineup of opponents for the final five games, but unless they can get their heads right with ball, that easiest lineup might eat them alive as they all scramble for points to avoid the trapdoor. I really have no idea what will happen, and the same can probably be said for Crawford.

QoS - After a very impressive run, they have cooled off. Completely sliding back into the relegation zone is possible, but very unlikely...however they face a murder’s row of games in then final stretch. Has AJ secured his job?

Ayr - Facing a mix of teams, the game versus Arbroath could be the margin for safety. Likely to remain safe.

Arbroath - Probably control their own destiny with the Ayr and Morton matches, however winner of Arbroath v Morton on the 30th is likely to be 8th a s the loser 9th.

Morton - Next two is Dundee and Hearts, but if this season has shown anything, it’s that anything is possible. That being said, still the favorites to be 9th, but the must win is likely versus Alloa, and that might setup the last day showdown with Arbroath for 8th.

Alloa - Done, but able to sew chaos and excitement, and have shown they are perfectly capable of doing it. Highly unlike to finish anywhere but last.
 

 

 

 

 

 

Dundee don't have a game against Hearts

[pantene pro-V 21]

Nor do they have the same 3 away games as Raith. 

Because they can't play themselves. 

Edited Wednesday at 21:43 by pantene pro-V

[johnnydun 8,915]

I think next Tuesday will be a massive night when it comes to cementing play off places.

[Yenitit 2,636]

Dundee, Raith and Queens the promotion playoff teams. Morten in the relegation playoffs. 

[TxRover 882]

4 hours ago, DeeTillEhDeh said:

Dundee don't have a game against Hearts

Corrected that error, was misreading...adjusted to address the ICT and short week to Raith, thanks.

3 hours ago, pantene pro-V said:

Nor do they have the same 3 away games as Raith. 

Because they can't play themselves. 

Same three referred to total number of away matches...wording corrected, thanks.

Edited Thursday at 01:38 by TxRover

[TxRover 882]

3 hours ago, johnnydun said:

I think next Tuesday will be a massive night when it comes to cementing play off places.

True enough, however the following two match dates will also have a serious impact too. I expect the 20th to really solidify the table, although the expectations will likely be baked in after the 13th. Either way, there is about to be some truly glorious score and table watching over the next couple of weeks.

[Gorgie greatness 94]

Hearts to cross the line like it’s 11 pensioners playing. Robbie to be catapulted north & lands in dungdee👍😂

[stu2910 154]

This league really deserves more tv coverage than it gets. The quality might be few and far between but every round of fixtures left has at least one massive game.

4/5 games to go and you can pretty much just shuffle 2nd to 9th in any order you feel like.

Raith and Dundee aren’t even officially safe from relegation yet.

[CALDERON 5,193]

Main thought - thankful to have turned the ship around a bit following wins against Morton and Dunfermline, which has left us clear of any relegation issue.  Those 6 points were absolutely massive.  

Disappointed to have dropped points against Ayr x 2 and Inverness x 2 when we didn't actually play that badly, especially with Hearts starting to drop points.  However I imagine all teams in the top half will be thinking similar, it's why we are all where we are I guess.

Edited Thursday at 08:40 by CALDERON

[Beachbum 1,270]

33 minutes ago, stu2910 said:

Raith and Dundee aren’t even officially safe from relegation yet.

Both are safe. Arbroath play Morton on the final day.

[TheScarf 10,506]

37 minutes ago, stu2910 said:

This league really deserves more tv coverage than it gets. The quality might be few and far between but every round of fixtures left has at least one massive game.

4/5 games to go and you can pretty much just shuffle 2nd to 9th in any order you feel like.

Raith and Dundee aren’t even officially safe from relegation yet.

They are, due to the remaining fixtures in the league.

[Fae_the_'briggs 1,094]

9 hours ago, Yenitit said:

Dundee, Raith and Queens the promotion playoff teams. Morten in the relegation playoffs. 

I hope your right but I think Queens' negative goal difference could be our downfall.  Even finishing 5th/6th will be a minor achievement considering our position at Christmas. I think ICT have hit form at the right time to secure at least 4th place. 

[Grant228 3,054]

Don't really care tbh. 

[Trogdor 1,925]

12 hours ago, TxRover said:

Ayr - Facing a mix of teams, the game versus Arbroath could be the margin for safety. Likely to remain safe.

How are feel right now...

[Spikethedee 884]

Can't really see anything other than Raith, Dundee & ICT in the playoff spots, although in which order is the big question. The next 10 days should hopefully give a lot more clarity...

[Boo Khaki 1,601]

The last few weeks has been brilliant. The supporters of every single side we've played have been totally demoralised and apathetic, convinced they are destined to be relegated. So far we have Alloa, Arbroath, Morton, and Ayr going down automatically, and Dunfermline fans seemingly convinced they're on course for a 14th place finish or something. 

[Hawk89 566]

15 hours ago, TxRover said:

Ayr - Facing a mix of teams, the game versus Arbroath could be the margin for safety. Likely to remain safe.

Might want to rewrite this, we've just lost our keeper.