How will the ex Junior clubs affect the lower SPFL leagues

[Hillonearth]

21 minutes ago, Tutankhamen said:

Not wrong regarding Edinburgh City although is there other factors at play there? It is a major city.

Hard to know if that would be the case for every team.

Where would Darvel find these new fans?

Are they sitting waiting in Kilmarnock and/or Hamilton?

Btw, as I said above i think we're about 50'years too late for a lot of ex Junior clubs.

Can also see a lot of ex West Juniors arriving in the LL and juggling not to be promoted.

I suppose every team's got its own unique set of challenges regarding increasing their fanbases...small town teams such as some of the Ayrshire and Lanarkshire ones have ready-made supports, but in many cases they'll only appear in numbers when there's a big game with something at stake..also as they move up the leagues like you say it would be difficult to see who outside the immediate area could be enticed to follow them.

Conversely, city sides obviously have much bigger populations in their catchment areas and thus bigger potential but in most cases currently struggle to get a decent percentage of them through the gates...you mentioned the likes of Petershill who play in an area where the population has been gradually hollowed out over the last half-century or so...a lot of their previous fanbase has moved away from the area or died, and they've not been replaced by many newcomers.

My lot face the problem of playing in one of the most transient areas of the city where a significant percentage of those living there are only doing so temporarily whether they're working or studying...on top of that, we're ten or fifteen minutes walk away from Byres Road with all the competition for people's time and money it provides.

[Gordon EF]

On 29/05/2021 at 22:46, craigkillie said:

You'll have to enlighten me on that.

This was before it was called league 2 but weren't Morton full time when they dropped down in 2002. Hamilton may well have been full time when they dropped down a few years before that (as a result of a points deduction). It could well be argued that these were pretty much enormous disasters for those clubs though tbf.

[Gordon EF]

On 30/05/2021 at 14:10, Andy groundhopper said:

Nothing to stop a crap full time club finishing bottom, such when losing to a part time outfit - it happens. No reason why a well run part time club can't make it work in the spfl - where the attendance may not be such a big factor. If the big 6 or 7 non Lge clubs make it into the spfl, good luck to them - we don't want a closed shop type system.Hopefully  every promoted club can last 5-10 years in the big league.

Attendance is an enormous factor in the SPFL, just as it is for every league in the world. Plot out the average position in the SPFL of every club for the last 5 seasons and plot out their average attendances. It won't line up absolutely perfectly and there will always be a few punching above or below their weight but league position and average attendance will show an extremely strong correlation.

[AsimButtHitsASix]

11 minutes ago, Gordon EF said:

This was before it was called league 2 but weren't Morton full time when they dropped down in 2002. Hamilton may well have been full time when they dropped down a few years before that (as a result of a points deduction). It could well be argued that these were pretty much enormous disasters for those clubs though tbf.

The year we were relegated were a mix. We had to get a management team and players in a week afore the season started so it was a clusterfuck. We were "full time" by the time we started the next season in the third but there were still some part timers in there.

[Gordon EF]

1 minute ago, AsimButtHitsASix said:

The year we were relegated were a mix. We had to get a management team and players in a week afore the season started so it was a clusterfuck. We were "full time" by the time we started the next season in the third but there were still some part timers in there.

Hybrids are a grey area I suppose. Even then both Morton and Hamilton had to have clusterfuck seasons to get relegated. And haven't really been in danger of dropping to tier 4 since then. The only way a FT or hybrid club will likely ever drop to tier 4 is similar types of absolute clusterfucks or if a fleet of sugar-daddied up diddy clubs appear in the leagues.

[Andy groundhopper]

10 hours ago, Gordon EF said:

Attendance is an enormous factor in the SPFL, just as it is for every league in the world. Plot out the average position in the SPFL of every club for the last 5 seasons and plot out their average attendances. It won't line up absolutely perfectly and there will always be a few punching above or below their weight but league position and average attendance will show an extremely strong correlation.

Agree, was trying to see how a poorly supported, part time non league club could survive in the spfl. Wonder how much part timers get paid in relation to non league, and what break even crowds would be needed. Would expect some of the ex junior 'big hitters' to attract decent crowds when they get promoted.

[foreverarover]

Think most ex juniors would have a break even attendance figure when they reach the spfl, I'd expect a need for 300+. With the two up and down in place ( I'm dreaming) then the spfl clubs would possibly see a swift return within 2 seasons - something they're scared of at the moment. Years in the wilderness with less fans =less income etc. I'd go for someone reaching the Championship at best in years to come.

The issue is revinue at the bars. That will plummet.

[Gordon EF]

Take away outside investment and clubs just having a good board or management team in place - these are things that could happen at any cub at any time - then the main factors for where clubs will find themselves in the pecking order once things have had a good chance to even themselves out is attendance (income) and payer pool available.

City clubs like Edinburgh City and Cove Rangers have great catchment areas. Cove are the closest part time SPFL club for a pretty huge population, that makes them a very convenient option for plenty of players. Edinburgh are the same. They have more part-time SPFL clubs close by and clubs like East Fife train in Edinburgh, but they're still a very convenient club for a lot of part time players in Edinburgh, the Lothians and even further afield. Darvel, on the other hand, aren't. Hard to get to, not from a large population area and with plenty of clubs around them. Take their money away and they'll struggle to compete for players with rival clubs.

The Lowland League is going to be a completely different animal in 10/15 years time. It will be a much tougher league but also shouldn't be as much of a 'shock' for teams to drop down into. It'll be more like dropping from L1 to L2. Unless a club is on a real downward spiral, they'll usually expect to compete to come back up straight away.

[Cornishman]

On 22/07/2021 at 13:40, Gordon EF said:

The Lowland League is going to be a completely different animal in 10/15 years time. It will be a much tougher league but also shouldn't be as much of a 'shock' for teams to drop down into. It'll be more like dropping from L1 to L2. Unless a club is on a real downward spiral, they'll usually expect to compete to come back up straight away.

I completely agree with your first two statements. I cannot wholeheartedly agree with the third... Certainly an occasional club will drop into the SLFL as favourite, with strong aspirations and chances to immediately return whence it came and others, not favourites, but expected to compete within the leading cadre of SLFL teams, maybe taking a couple to a handful of seasons to regain their SPFL places. I believe that a majority of Clubs-42 will follow a Berwick Rangers type trajectory and maybe 'settle' at the lower level, with equal likelihood of promoting, staying-put, or relegating again. This expectation of mine is riding the coattails of the history of the English fifth-level league, 'National Premier Division', combined with the knowledge of the strength of clubs yet to promote into the SLFL.
Let's be honest here, these earliest seasons of the functioning pyramid are going to be adjudged in future years as being by far the easiest within which to escape both Club-42 relegation and spending unwanted seasons outwith the SPFL. The SLFL is as yet pretty naïve with respect to promotion requirements, infrastructural needs and basic preparatory knowhow. This will rapidly change, as clubs swiftly learn the new ropes and bigger, more ambitious clubs enter the SLFL competition - particularly the top half-dozen or so clubs from the WoSFL! 

[Gordon EF]

6 hours ago, Cornishman said:

I completely agree with your first two statements. I cannot wholeheartedly agree with the third... Certainly an occasional club will drop into the SLFL as favourite, with strong aspirations and chances to immediately return whence it came and others, not favourites, but expected to compete within the leading cadre of SLFL teams, maybe taking a couple to a handful of seasons to regain their SPFL places. I believe that a majority of Clubs-42 will follow a Berwick Rangers type trajectory and maybe 'settle' at the lower level, with equal likelihood of promoting, staying-put, or relegating again. This expectation of mine is riding the coattails of the history of the English fifth-level league, 'National Premier Division', combined with the knowledge of the strength of clubs yet to promote into the SLFL.
Let's be honest here, these earliest seasons of the functioning pyramid are going to be adjudged in future years as being by far the easiest within which to escape both Club-42 relegation and spending unwanted seasons outwith the SPFL. The SLFL is as yet pretty naïve with respect to promotion requirements, infrastructural needs and basic preparatory knowhow. This will rapidly change, as clubs swiftly learn the new ropes and bigger, more ambitious clubs enter the SLFL competition - particularly the top half-dozen or so clubs from the WoSFL! 

Totally agree that there are clubs currently in the SPFL who would struggle or at least not compete straight away in the LL in future years. I'm kind of assuming that in 10/15 years time, we'll see the whole pyramid 'settle out' significantly. Not just from the bottom, with plenty of stronger clubs replacing the current LL dross from tier 6 but also that over that time, the weaker SPFL clubs will probably have dropped down already. In 15 years time, you're probably less likely to get SPFL 2 clubs who're consistently weaker than the top LL clubs apart from ones who hit the skids pretty rapidly because over that time, stronger LL clubs will gradually replace weaker SPFL clubs.

It's likely that the next handful of clubs promoted into the SPFL will continue to strengthen it so SPFL clubs simply won't be allowed to limp on being pish season after season as the bottom of SPFL 2 becomes much more cut-throat.

[PossilYM]

On 05/04/2021 at 23:37, Buckets said:

Just wondering how far people think the ex juniors will go in the SPFL. Not so much asking about the likes of Kelty and Darvel who have big money backers but in the long term how many exjuniors will be in the top 42 clubs in the country and how high up will they be. I might be overestimating but I was thinking maybe a whole division worth of clubs could eventually be displaced.

Could we see as many as 10 nonleague teams eventually replace League One and Two teams? And where will the top junior clubs be? I would think League One but could perhaps Auchinleck Talbot establish themselves as a Championship side. 

And finally what impact will the junior clubs have on the overall league attendances? Right now the average attendance in League Two is probably about 450 odd (precovid). If we made a 10 team division of the best non-league clubs what would the average attendance be? 

2 years on and the ex West Juniors aren't looking as though they're setting any heather on fire so far with the pyramid.

Darvel well less said etc regarding last summer's playoffs.

And as this years run in begins it looks the Wosfl might be unlicensed Beith.

 

 

[LongTimeLurker]

On 30/05/2021 at 08:52, Stag Nation said:

I don't think it has.

Maybe you're thinking of a full-time club which ceased to exist. Another club was formed, took over their ground and entered League 2.

Not sure if it's what was being referred to (maybe like you say a dig at Rangers over liquidation?) but I'm 99% sure East Stirlingshire were full-time for their season in the old first division in the early 1960s. The fall out from that financially led to the ES Clydebank saga.

 

[Todd_is_God]

On 01/06/2021 at 11:12, Gordon EF said:

Even then... Hamilton had to have clusterfuck seasons to get relegated. And haven't really been in danger of dropping to tier 4 since then.

Hamilton were very much part-time in 99/00 and would have finished 7th, 3 points behind 4th placed Arbroath, had they not been deducted 15 points.

We finished just 3 points ahead of 9th placed Stranraer in 02/03, however, before getting promoted the next season.

[LongTimeLurker]

Old enough to remember watching Accies play during the 1971-72 season when they wound up dead last in the old Second Division so under no illusions as to whether the LL could happen to a very badly run Accies. Might be a once every 50 year sort of event but it could definitely happen. As things stand at the moment is the Accies home support even as big as Bonnyrigg Rose's? Without the relatively large away supports that show up in the top two divisions there is no way full-time football is going to be sustainable if they get relegated this season and don't get promoted straight away.

[Todd_is_God]

On 04/04/2023 at 09:22, LongTimeLurker said:

Old enough to remember watching Accies play during the 1971-72 season when they wound up dead last in the old Second Division so under no illusions as to whether the LL could happen to a very badly run Accies. Might be a once every 50 year sort of event but it could definitely happen. As things stand at the moment is the Accies home support even as big as Bonnyrigg Rose's? Without the relatively large away supports that show up in the top two divisions there is no way full-time football is going to be sustainable if they get relegated this season and don't get promoted straight away.

I'm not sure the likes of Colin McGowan care what division we are in or whether we are full-time or part-time.

His only focus is the charity - the Accies badge is only there to make it look like we are some sort of community club, and the extra attention that brings.

The lack of advertising of the recent cup final, coupled with the old firm shite, shows that the community tie in only works in one direction.

[grinderbrokeyourhearts]

On 31/03/2023 at 23:42, PossilYM said:

2 years on and the ex West Juniors aren't looking as though they're setting any heather on fire so far with the pyramid.

Darvel well less said etc regarding last summer's playoffs.

And as this years run in begins it looks the Wosfl might be unlicensed Beith.

 

 

I think if you look at where East Stirling and Cowdenbeath are that’s more of an indication. 

[Bestsinceslicebread]

On 24/05/2021 at 12:48, bluearmyfaction said:

How much will Queen's Park going pro affect Pollok?  I can imagine future generations of supporters looking to a team that now has a shout at a bit of higher level success rather than a team fighting up from the ex-juniors.

There will be no effect on Pollok Juniors whatsoever.  Queens Park have their following and Pollok have their core fan base and from what I've been told its rising.  The manager who took over last year is no looking to change the team for his own choices so will see how they do.  This is a club whose average home attendance is about 600, sure ill be corrected if wrong. They have a great wee stadium that the council only allow them to have 900 max but can easily double that or more.  The core of Pollok is there, even a huge academy that they do not take advantage of but if the club is someday run the right way with luck then they shouldn't be long without trophies and can move up from the Premier division of the WOSFL but I suspect that's a few years yet 

Edited June 4, 2023 by Bestsinceslicebread