How will the ex Junior clubs affect the lower SPFL leagues

[GNU_Linux]

Those one time junior upstarts in Cove are doing no bad.

[Gordon EF]

Let's leave clubs who get outside investment out of it for now. They can go as far up the leagues as that money can take them.

It's numbers through the gates that will determine which clubs can get and keep places in the SPFL longer terms. In terms of current SPFL clubs most likely to be replaced, you're looking at the ones who struggle to break the 500 mark for average attendances - Cowdenbeath, Annan, Brechin, Stranraer, Albion Rovers, and Edinburgh City. Edinburgh look to be on the up despite low crowds. I'm not sure if they've got money behind them or not.

Any ex-junior club who can expect to be getting 500+ crowds if they were to get to the SPFL on an ongoing basis would have a good chance of replacing any of these clubs.

Folk who know these clubs better can correct me with this list but I think that means you're potentially looking at Kelty, Bonnyrigg, Auchinleck, and Pollock as most likely with clubs like Linthligow, Bo'ness, Clydebank, Beith, and Kilwinning as the next most likely group?

In 20 years time, I suspect there'll be 5-10 recently ex-junior clubs in the SPFL.

[Ginaro]

15 minutes ago, Gordon EF said:

Let's leave clubs who get outside investment out of it for now. They can go as far up the leagues as that money can take them.

It's numbers through the gates that will determine which clubs can get and keep places in the SPFL longer terms. In terms of current SPFL clubs most likely to be replaced, you're looking at the ones who struggle to break the 500 mark for average attendances - Cowdenbeath, Annan, Brechin, Stranraer, Albion Rovers, and Edinburgh City. Edinburgh look to be on the up despite low crowds. I'm not sure if they've got money behind them or not.

Any ex-junior club who can expect to be getting 500+ crowds if they were to get to the SPFL on an ongoing basis would have a good chance of replacing any of these clubs.

Folk who know these clubs better can correct me with this list but I think that means you're potentially looking at Kelty, Bonnyrigg, Auchinleck, and Pollock as most likely with clubs like Linthligow, Bo'ness, Clydebank, Beith, and Kilwinning as the next most likely group?

In 20 years time, I suspect there'll be 5-10 recently ex-junior clubs in the SPFL.

There is also the question of licensing - i.e. diverting funds to infrastructure in the case of Beith and Pollok - to factor in as well which might delay some clubs while allowing others with slightly smaller attendances a financial boost.

Albion Rovers had 300 when the music stopped in 2019-20, and according to the headcount threads these non-league clubs had more. Though no doubt there would be an increase across the board for the end of season run in.

Buckie
Fraserburgh
Inverurie
Wick

Berwick
Bonnyrigg
Kelty

Bo'ness
Linlithgow
Musselburgh

Auchinleck
Clydebank
Kilwinning
Pollok
St Roch's

Lochee

[Tutankhamen]

Is that Hamilton Accies i see relegated?

[Gordon EF]

15 minutes ago, Tutankhamen said:

Is that Hamilton Accies i see relegated?

Unless they beat Killie by 9+ goals on Sunday.

[Stag Nation]

3 minutes ago, Gordon EF said:

Unless they beat Killie by 9+ goals on Sunday.

Even with 9 they'll go down. They need at least 19.

[Gordon EF]

1 minute ago, Stag Nation said:

Even with 9 they'll go down. They need at least 19.

Ha, misheard the comment on the highlights from last night. Tough ask.

[Ginaro]

1 hour ago, Stag Nation said:

Even with 9 they'll go down. They need at least 19.

Given they are playing each other, 9-0 will overturn the -18 GD.

[Stag Nation]

12 hours ago, Ginaro said:

Given they are playing each other, 9-0 will overturn the -18 GD.

Good point. Back to school for me.

[bluearmyfaction]

How much will Queen's Park going pro affect Pollok?  I can imagine future generations of supporters looking to a team that now has a shout at a bit of higher level success rather than a team fighting up from the ex-juniors.

[craigkillie]

On 17/04/2021 at 14:29, Tutankhamen said:

From Hamilton Accies downwards I'd be worried.

It would take an enormous disaster for any full-time club to ever drop to League 2, let alone to drop out of the SPFL.

[Tutankhamen]

9 hours ago, craigkillie said:

It would take an enormous disaster for any full-time club to ever drop to League 2, let alone to drop out of the SPFL.

It's already happened.

[craigkillie]

2 hours ago, Tutankhamen said:

It's already happened.

You'll have to enlighten me on that.

[Tutankhamen]

1 hour ago, craigkillie said:

You'll have to enlighten me on that.

Where have you been the last 10 years.

 

[Stag Nation]

11 hours ago, Tutankhamen said:

It's already happened.

I don't think it has.

Maybe you're thinking of a full-time club which ceased to exist. Another club was formed, took over their ground and entered League 2.

[Andy groundhopper]

Nothing to stop a crap full time club finishing bottom, such when losing to a part time outfit - it happens. No reason why a well run part time club can't make it work in the spfl - where the attendance may not be such a big factor. If the big 6 or 7 non Lge clubs make it into the spfl, good luck to them - we don't want a closed shop type system.Hopefully  every promoted club can last 5-10 years in the big league.

[Hillonearth]

Truthfully without some Mileson-level investment I don't see any current non-league side going any higher than League One with maybe a very occasional season as Championship bottom markers. I'd said over in another thread however that Brechin going down was probably a wakeup call for a significant proportion of the lower SPFL clubs, as they'd been in a fairly successful side at that level up until a few years ago...East Stirling and Berwick weren't really a surprise to anyone, but I imagine Brechin were.

The crowd thing is a red herring - they'll increase in line with what happened at Edinburgh City who do okay now but used to pull in sub-100 crowds regularly before they were promoted to the SPFL.

The other side of the coin however is how former league teams will do in non-league football. From the available evidence, the likelihood of them bouncing back at the first attempt seems slim, and as the stronger ex-junior clubs gradually feed in and the more spurious current LL clubs are relegated, the Lowland especially will be a tough ask to get out of.

In some cases, I suspect some former league clubs' downward trajectory hasn't bottomed out yet...I could easily see the likes of East Stirling dropping to the EOS league below the Lowland.

Edited May 31, 2021 by Hillonearth

[Tutankhamen]

44 minutes ago, Hillonearth said:

Truthfully without some Mileson-level investment I don't see any current non-league side going any higher than League One with maybe a very occasional season as Championship bottom markers. I'd said over in another thread however that Brechin going down was probably a wakeup call for a significant proportion of the lower SPFL clubs, as they'd been in a fairly successful side at that level up until a few years ago...East Stirling and Berwick weren't really a surprise to anyone, but I imagine Brechin were.

The crowd thing is a red herring - they'll increase in line with what happened at Edinburgh City who do okay now but used to pull in sub-100 crowds regularly before they were promoted to the SPFL.

The other side of the coin however is how former league teams will do in non-league football. From the available evidence, the likelihood of them bouncing back at the first attempt seems slim, and as the stronger ex-junior clubs gradually feed in and the more spurious current LL clubs are relegated, the Lowland especially will be a tough ask to get out of.

In some cases, I suspect some former league clubs' downward trajectory hasn't bottomed out yet...I could easily see the likes of East Stirling dropping to the EOS league below the Lowland.

As somebody that saw the occasional game at EK and Cumbernauld Colts the problem for me is/was they ain't exactly nearby unless you live in the vicinity, certainly by public transport anyway. Both of those clubs are very much on the fringes of Greater Glasgow.

The same could be said for Kelty or Talbot and even a Darvel. Even a car owner would find Darvel awkward. I just don't see them getting much more than 300/400 for an average League game. Are we just replacing a Berwick or Brechin with something nearer the Central Belt. 

I'll happily pay 7/8 quid to watch say Pollok but would i pay double that to see them play Albion Rovers, no thanks.

Truthfully i think the pyramid has came too late for a whole hosts of ex Junior clubs.

Cambuslang/Petershill/Irvine Meadow being three examples.

Edited May 31, 2021 by Tutankhamen
f**k the SFa

[Hillonearth]

9 minutes ago, Tutankhamen said:

As somebody that saw the occasional game at EK and Cumbernauld Colts the problem for me is/was they ain't exactly nearby unless you live in the vicinity, certainly by public transport anyway. Both of those clubs are very much on the fringes of Greater Glasgow.

The same could be said for Kelty or Talbot and even a Darvel. Even a car owner would find Darvel awkward. I just don't see them getting much more than 300/400 for an average League. Are we just replacing a Berwick or Brechin with something nearer the Central Belt. 

I'll happily pay 7/8 quid to watch say Pollok but would i pay double that to see them play Albion Rovers, no thanks.

Yeah, some places are spectacularly badly-connected - you mention Darvel which is a classic example. It's just over 20 miles from where I live...it's just the other side of Strathaven really...but it would take two hours minimum to get there by public transport...train into town, train to Killie then a bus journey from hell through all those wee towns along the Irvine Valley. I think I've only been there twice, and one of those was because I got a lift!

In terms of the pricing, again I reckon just as there would need to be an overhaul of a playing squad for a team reaching the SPFL, there would also likely be an element of churn in the support...there definitely would be some for who the main attraction of non-league football is the affordability who would decide it's no longer worth it, but these would be more than replaced by newer people coming along...like I say, Edinburgh City were lucky to get 80 folk through the gate pre-SPFL, but magicked up several hundred new fans once they got into SPFL2.

[Tutankhamen]

4 minutes ago, Hillonearth said:

Yeah, some places are spectacularly badly-connected - you mention Darvel which is a classic example. It's just over 20 miles from where I live...it's just the other side of Strathaven really...but it would take two hours minimum to get there by public transport...train into town, train to Killie then a bus journey from hell through all those wee towns along the Irvine Valley. I think I've only been there twice, and one of those was because I got a lift!

In terms of the pricing, again I reckon just as there would need to be an overhaul of a playing squad for a team reaching the SPFL, there would also likely be an element of churn in the support...there definitely would be some for who the main attraction of non-league football is the affordability who would decide it's no longer worth it, but these would be more than replaced by newer people coming along...like I say, Edinburgh City were lucky to get 80 folk through the gate pre-SPFL, but magicked up several hundred new fans once they got into SPFL2.

Not wrong regarding Edinburgh City although is there other factors at play there? It is a major city.

Hard to know if that would be the case for every team.

Where would Darvel find these new fans?

Are they sitting waiting in Kilmarnock and/or Hamilton?

Btw, as I said above i think we're about 50'years too late for a lot of ex Junior clubs.

Can also see a lot of ex West Juniors arriving in the LL and juggling not to be promoted.