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How will the ex Junior clubs affect the lower SPFL leagues


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Just wondering how far people think the ex juniors will go in the SPFL. Not so much asking about the likes of Kelty and Darvel who have big money backers but in the long term how many exjuniors will be in the top 42 clubs in the country and how high up will they be. I might be overestimating but I was thinking maybe a whole division worth of clubs could eventually be displaced.

Could we see as many as 10 nonleague teams eventually replace League One and Two teams? And where will the top junior clubs be? I would think League One but could perhaps Auchinleck Talbot establish themselves as a Championship side. 

And finally what impact will the junior clubs have on the overall league attendances? Right now the average attendance in League Two is probably about 450 odd (precovid). If we made a 10 team division of the best non-league clubs what would the average attendance be? 

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Under the present set up - no automatic promotion and having to play off to even get that far - it could take a while for ex juniors to arrive in the SPFL. 

8 hours ago, Buckets said:

 

Could we see as many as 10 nonleague teams eventually replace League One and Two teams?

Eventually, perhaps, but it will take (a lot) of time. Look at England's League Two and National League, a huge amount of ex-Football League now plying their trade in non-league circles, but it's really accelerated since 2 automatic relegation places were introduced.

8 hours ago, Buckets said:

And where will the top junior clubs be? I would think League One but could perhaps Auchinleck Talbot establish themselves as a Championship side. 

 

Perhaps, but would they not need one of those "big money backers" you already mentioned? And what happens when these big money backers disappear?

9 hours ago, Buckets said:

 

And finally what impact will the junior clubs have on the overall league attendances? Right now the average attendance in League Two is probably about 450 odd (precovid). If we made a 10 team division of the best non-league clubs what would the average attendance be? 

Can't imagine them being much less than present average (which was 504 according to the latest figures I could find - May 2019).

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Depends on the play-off situation. If it were to be changed to a straight relegation tomorrow I reckon League 2 would look very different in a few years time.

I think this can only be a good thing for increasing attendances. Away crowds will increase because football fans enjoy visiting new places. New entrants to league 2 will see their attendances rise as a reflection of their success. It may grab the attention of local armchair old firm gloryhunters or epl fans. That might be asking a lot though.

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Think a minimum should be
Highland league winners and Lowland League winners playoff to see who is promoted straight to SPFL2 and the losers play the 2nd bottom team of SPFL2 in a play off to see who will be in the SPFL2 the following year.

Think before when the pyramid was introduced the HL v LL winners to play Club42 was fine but standard so high now lower in the SPFL there needs to be straight relegation from SPFL2


There's quite a few clubs, will make it to Lowland league and can see  a few making the SPFL2 and even fluttering in and out of  SPFL1.  No matter what I believe the standard is rising and the SPFL2 current teams realize this and thus they know their level will have to rise.   Think in 5 years with all the pressure happening I think in 5 years the SPFL2  league will look completely different to what it is now

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1 hour ago, Bestsinceslicebread said:

Think a minimum should be
Highland league winners and Lowland League winners playoff to see who is promoted straight to SPFL2 and the losers play the 2nd bottom team of SPFL2 in a play off to see who will be in the SPFL2 the following year.

I think that's the next step we'll see,  puts league 2 in line with the other SPFL divisions in chance of relegation. It seems to be inevitable it will happen eventually.

When it happens will be interesting but probably a lot further away than they'd like. We can debate the what should be the right structure, but what's more crucial is when clubs mentality will shift from fear of relegation,  to fear of not coming back up if they go down.   IMO that shift will happen when we have a few more traditional spfl clubs experience life in tier 5,  and when there's enough spfl clubs who have played recently outside of the national leagues.   We are at least 5 years, probably more before that becomes a possibility. 

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On 08/04/2021 at 18:05, Bestsinceslicebread said:

Think a minimum should be
Highland league winners and Lowland League winners playoff to see who is promoted straight to SPFL2 and the losers play the 2nd bottom team of SPFL2 in a play off to see who will be in the SPFL2 the following year.

Think before when the pyramid was introduced the HL v LL winners to play Club42 was fine but standard so high now lower in the SPFL there needs to be straight relegation from SPFL2


There's quite a few clubs, will make it to Lowland league and can see  a few making the SPFL2 and even fluttering in and out of  SPFL1.  No matter what I believe the standard is rising and the SPFL2 current teams realize this and thus they know their level will have to rise.   Think in 5 years with all the pressure happening I think in 5 years the SPFL2  league will look completely different to what it is now

Does that not mean you end up with 11 teams in League 2?

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24 minutes ago, Bestsinceslicebread said:

your obviously not reading it right, maybe its the way I wrote it but sure its clear enough, my bad if it isnt

 

its basically one up one down and a play off to see if club 41 remains or goes down and swapped by the playoff winner

I think it is the way you wrote it, (mind you, I'm knackered, can hardly keep my eyes open so that probably doesn't help) although you do mention "straight relegation" in your second paragraph.

Anyway, not 11 teams in League 2...

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1 hour ago, Jacksgranda said:

I think it is the way you wrote it, (mind you, I'm knackered, can hardly keep my eyes open so that probably doesn't help) although you do mention "straight relegation" in your second paragraph.

Anyway, not 11 teams in League 2...

Yes correct meant straight relegation for club 42 but the team who wins the playoff takes the place of club 42.
Then HL/LL playoff losers will then playoff against Club 41 to see who plays in SPFL2 the following season

Edited by Bestsinceslicebread
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On 05/04/2021 at 23:37, Buckets said:

Just wondering how far people think the ex juniors will go in the SPFL. Not so much asking about the likes of Kelty and Darvel who have big money backers but in the long term how many exjuniors will be in the top 42 clubs in the country and how high up will they be. I might be overestimating but I was thinking maybe a whole division worth of clubs could eventually be displaced.

Could we see as many as 10 nonleague teams eventually replace League One and Two teams? And where will the top junior clubs be? I would think League One but could perhaps Auchinleck Talbot establish themselves as a Championship side. 

And finally what impact will the junior clubs have on the overall league attendances? Right now the average attendance in League Two is probably about 450 odd (precovid). If we made a 10 team division of the best non-league clubs what would the average attendance be? 

Depends on the term 'eventually'.  As already written there's no automatic relegation currently from League Two so that could hamper things for a few seasons until automatic relegation/promotion is established.  That is likely to depend on capital filtering into HL/LL to soften the blow for clubs who view themselves as being SPFL status.  

 

Using current league set ups, I can't see Talbot being anything more than a League One team at best.  It's going to be interesting seeing how far we can go initially and things will retain interest on that journey if we're doing it or close to rising up tiers each season.

 

However, if we do find ourselves established in one of the higher tiers and find mixed seasons in terms of wins/losses, then both playing staff and fans will be missing those days where we're winning nearly every week and being victorious in different trophies each season.  On the flip side, I hope I'm pessimistic and I can look forward to welcoming Real Madrid to Auchinleck's new arena for a Champions League tie!

 

The last full L2 season, 18/19, had an average of 505 as attendance.  So, I'd expect something around that figure, up to 600 average.

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My biggest hope for the pyramid was that the sight of their local club in the SPFL would draw some supporters away from the top Premiership clubs, who they don't necessarily have a strong connection to.

I hoped that a more even spread of supporters would do things like opening the possibility of non old firm league champions, and give us more full time clubs.

I could see the bigger ex-junior clubs such as Pollok or Bo'ness steadily working their way through the part time national leagues, then establishing themselves in the Championship. 

If I'm right about some supporters moving towards their local clubs when they have success on a national stage, and given the additional income from larger travelling supports at that Championship level, full time football and the Premiership could be realistic for one or two of the ex-junior clubs in about 10 years.

I was wondering why it is that masses of folk choose to support certain clubs that they haven't really any connection to. I decided that for many it was just the associating themselves with quick and regular successes of those teams, as an antidote to an otherwise difficult life. But what do I know.

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Think most ex juniors would have a break even attendance figure when they reach the spfl, I'd expect a need for 300+. With the two up and down in place ( I'm dreaming) then the spfl clubs would possibly see a swift return within 2 seasons - something they're scared of at the moment. Years in the wilderness with less fans =less income etc. I'd go for someone reaching the Championship at best in years to come.

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On 5 April 2021 at 23:37, Buckets said:

Just wondering how far people think the ex juniors will go in the SPFL. Not so much asking about the likes of Kelty and Darvel who have big money backers but in the long term how many exjuniors will be in the top 42 clubs in the country and how high up will they be. I might be overestimating but I was thinking maybe a whole division worth of clubs could eventually be displaced.

Could we see as many as 10 nonleague teams eventually replace League One and Two teams? And where will the top junior clubs be? I would think League One but could perhaps Auchinleck Talbot establish themselves as a Championship side. 

And finally what impact will the junior clubs have on the overall league attendances? Right now the average attendance in League Two is probably about 450 odd (precovid). If we made a 10 team division of the best non-league clubs what would the average attendance be? 

From Hamilton Accies downwards I'd be worried.

At least 10 ex Junior teams could just as easily replace the dross within the "42"

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On 11 April 2021 at 16:00, stm said:

Using current league set ups, I can't see Talbot being anything more than a League One team at best.  It's going to be interesting seeing how far we can go initially and things will retain interest on that journey if we're doing it or close to rising up tiers each season.

 

The last full L2 season, 18/19, had an average of 505 as attendance.  So, I'd expect something around that figure, up to 600 average.

My only worry would be as costs rise going up the leagues so does the admission price.

An adult at the Juniors might have paid £6/7 for an average top League game in 2019.

As against say £16 in SFL2 in 2023

The danger would be, especially if you were having a poor season, the punters start drifting away.

My other worry with Talbot is the remoteness of it. It's just too far away from the Greater Glasgow catchment area.  Be curious to know what time the last bus or train is back to Glasgow. It's just too far even to walk it back to Kilmarnock. Think Talbot would be better suited to the Lowland League.

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My only complications with (my idea) of straight two up and down, is when the majority of spfl clubs are from southern regions - can't all go into the Lowland can they ? On admissions, I think that the spfl downwards need to have a rethink on costs regarding people's income etc. Maybe £10 in spfl2 a maximum to keep fans interested ? About time the bigger ex juniors started climbing upwards.

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On 06/04/2021 at 08:52, Jacksgranda said:

Can't imagine them being much less than present average (which was 504 according to the latest figures I could find - May 2019).

Fair enough. I was hoping they might increase attendances tbh. I know Pollok regularly attract crowds of 700 according to Wikipedia so I hoped that playing in the SPFL and fighting for promotion might bump that number up to an average of 800 or something. Given 4 or 5 SPFL clubs don't average 400 I thought this might boost attendances slightly. The same with clubs like Talbot or Irvine Meadow or Bonnyrigg Rose replacing Albion Rovers, Cowdenbeath or Brechin. If the exjuniors could average crowds of say 600 that would boost the leagues attendance figures. 

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17 hours ago, Buckets said:

Fair enough. I was hoping they might increase attendances tbh. I know Pollok regularly attract crowds of 700 according to Wikipedia so I hoped that playing in the SPFL and fighting for promotion might bump that number up to an average of 800 or something. Given 4 or 5 SPFL clubs don't average 400 I thought this might boost attendances slightly. The same with clubs like Talbot or Irvine Meadow or Bonnyrigg Rose replacing Albion Rovers, Cowdenbeath or Brechin. If the exjuniors could average crowds of say 600 that would boost the leagues attendance figures. 

Very few non SPFL clubs average anywhere near the lowest SPFL2 crowd, let alone the average league crowd. @Burnieclub78 collates attendances, in normal times.

However, we consistently see increases in crowds as clubs move up divisions, so there's no reason why promoted clubs wouldn't see boosts in attendance too.

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There is alot of talk of reconstruction, but there probably would be merit in expanding the size of the league a little to allow for 1 automatic down and 1 playoff berth in the 4th tier, any by expansion I mean with proper clubs not colts. Would a league of 12 or 16 with a split make sense for example, which would give the clubs occupying the bottom spots the best chances post split to avoid the drop. The time to announce expansion should also be done before a season kicks off so everyone knows what is at stake rather than finding out midway through. 

From an Ayr perspective I often look to the cup and hope for a trip somewhere new, Wick Academy (A) is the dream, in my time following the club we've always been tier 2-3. So I've not seen many of the grounds in the premiership or league 2 even, Elgin City away this year would have been a trip I'd have made in different times. Going away to places like Brora sounds like the making of a decent day out. 

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