Triple Header Winners and Losers

[Jimi Shandrix]

7 minutes ago, G51 said:

Of the three goals we conceded in this international break, Marshall was responsible for two of them. That's a problem.

I'm not really interested in being loyal to players for getting us through two penalty shootouts to reach the Euros, I'm interested in winning games. If Marshall spends the rest of the season on the subs bench at Derby like he's done recently, then we're asking for trouble going into the Euros with him in nets.

Adams has shown enough domestically and in his few internationals to prove that he's easily our best striking option.

And yet Alan McGregor, who was at fault for both Slavia Prague's goals at Ibrox, would walk into the Scotland team if he wanted it enough. Why have Rangers not dropped him after that game?

[Insert Amusing Pseudonym]

1 hour ago, G51 said:

I covered that when I said "He almost certainly can't be arsed".

If we're interested in actually winning games of football though, and maybe doing some damage in the Euros, then he's the best keeper we have by a country mile.

The only one of our normal three goalkeepers who is going to get regular games between now and the Euros is Craig Gordon, and he'll be getting those games in the Championship. Expect this narrative to ramp up in the next few months.

McGregor isn't a country mile better.than Gordon on current form.  Better, but there's really not a huge amount in it.

Gordon also isn't retired

[G51]

3 minutes ago, Jimi Shandrix said:

And yet Alan McGregor, who was at fault for both Slavia Prague's goals at Ibrox, would walk into the Scotland team if he wanted it enough. Why have Rangers not dropped him after that game?

Because he's been a POTY candidate for one of the best defensive teams in modern Scottish top-flight history.

1 minute ago, Insert Amusing Pseudonym said:

McGregor isn't a country mile better.than Gordon on current form.  Better, but there's really not a huge amount in it.

Gordon also isn't retired

Come on. Gordon is playing in an extremely poor standard of league and he's still conceding more than a goal a game in it.

[Gordopolis]

Come on. Gordon is playing in an extremely poor standard of league and he's still conceding more than a goal a game in it.

Almost like the defence in front of him is a freaking shambles.

[Insert Amusing Pseudonym]

14 minutes ago, G51 said:

Because he's been a POTY candidate for one of the best defensive teams in modern Scottish top-flight history.

Come on. Gordon is playing in an extremely poor standard of league and he's still conceding more than a goal a game in it.

You could have Neuer behind that defence and be losing the same amount.  

[G51]

2 minutes ago, Gordopolis said:

Almost like the defence in front of him is a freaking shambles.

Hearts have allowed 0.99xG per game with Gordon in nets, and have conceded 0.9 goals. Hearts' defence is terrible, but it's not like Gordon is regularly bailing them out - he's performing slightly better than average.

For comparison, Rangers are conceding 0.57xG a game with McGregor in nets, and he's conceding 0.32 goals per game. That's a keeper who's making a real difference.

There's just nothing about Gordon that tells me he's still capable of performing at an international level. Including tonight when he dropped the ball at the feet of a striker.

[Insert Amusing Pseudonym]

1 minute ago, G51 said:

Hearts have allowed 0.99xG per game with Gordon in nets, and have conceded 0.9 goals. Hearts' defence is terrible, but it's not like Gordon is regularly bailing them out - he's performing slightly better than average.

For comparison, Rangers are conceding 0.57xG a game with McGregor in nets, and he's conceding 0.32 goals per game. That's a keeper who's making a real difference.

There's just nothing about Gordon that tells me he's still capable of performing at an international level. Including tonight when he dropped the ball at the feet of a striker.

Why believe what you can see in terms of the saves Gordon is making when xG will tell you how many he could have got?

He did make a bad drop and got away with it tonight.  He's not flawless by any means but then nor is McGregor

[Ludo*1]

1 hour ago, G51 said:

I covered that when I said "He almost certainly can't be arsed".

If we're interested in actually winning games of football though, and maybe doing some damage in the Euros, then he's the best keeper we have by a country mile.

The only one of our normal three goalkeepers who is going to get regular games between now and the Euros is Craig Gordon, and he'll be getting those games in the Championship. Expect this narrative to ramp up in the next few months.

The only one pushing that narrative will be yourself.

No-one actively wants McGregor to come out of retirement bar Rangers fans. In saying that, probably not many Rangers fans care enough either, it's just you continually touting it.

Edited March 31, 2021 by Ludo*1

[DiegoDiego]

It really is the Scottish way of things isn't it? David Marshall almost single handedly gets us to our first finals in 23 years

I know you qualified it with "almost" but still, that's quite a claim.

[Gordopolis]

Hearts have allowed 0.99xG per game with Gordon in nets, and have conceded 0.9 goals. Hearts' defence is terrible, but it's not like Gordon is regularly bailing them out - he's performing slightly better than average.
For comparison, Rangers are conceding 0.57xG a game with McGregor in nets, and he's conceding 0.32 goals per game. That's a keeper who's making a real difference.
There's just nothing about Gordon that tells me he's still capable of performing at an international level. Including tonight when he dropped the ball at the feet of a striker.

Fair dos with those stats, but there are other factors. McGregor is done with Scotland, Gordon has recently stated how desperate he is to force his way back in. The spill tonight aside, he played perfectly, including the palm over that was spookily similar to the one Marshall conceded Vs Israel.

[Gordopolis]

I know you qualified it with "almost" but still, that's quite a claim.

I'm sure he saved with both hands

[G51]

8 minutes ago, Insert Amusing Pseudonym said:

Why believe what you can see in terms of the saves Gordon is making when xG will tell you how many he could have got?

He did make a bad drop and got away with it tonight.  He's not flawless by any means but then nor is McGregor

xG isn't perfect for scouting goalkeepers, but it can point you in the right direction. If Gordon was regularly pulling off wonder saves, there would be a noticeable difference in those numbers. There isn't. His numbers were also starting to decline in the last season he played regularly for Celtic (18/19), which probably contributed to their decision to get rid of him.

Ultimately, the question boils down to "How well do you need to be performing in the Scottish Championship in order to become the number one keeper for Scotland?" If your answer is "Fine, but not well enough to make that much of a statistical difference" then I suppose you're happy with Gordon.

2 minutes ago, Ludo*1 said:

The only one pushing that narrative will be yourself.

No-one actively wants McGregor to come out of retirement bar Rangers fans. In saying that, probably not many Rangers fans care enough either, it's just you continually touting it.

I think there's almost zero chance of it happening, as I said. But it's a no-brainer for Clarke to ask the question if Marshall continues to sit on Derby's bench and Gordon continues to fanny about against Arbroath and Alloa every other week. The only other option is McLaughlin, but why bring in McGregor's backup if the man himself is in any way interested?

If Marshall doesn't win back his first team spot at Derby, or if he does and continues to look really bad for them, then people are going to start asking the question come early/mid-May.

[Ludo*1]

1 minute ago, G51 said:

xG isn't perfect for scouting goalkeepers, but it can point you in the right direction. If Gordon was regularly pulling off wonder saves, there would be a noticeable difference in those numbers. There isn't. His numbers were also starting to decline in the last season he played regularly for Celtic (18/19), which probably contributed to their decision to get rid of him.

Ultimately, the question boils down to "How well do you need to be performing in the Scottish Championship in order to become the number one keeper for Scotland?" If your answer is "Fine, but not well enough to make that much of a statistical difference" then I suppose you're happy with Gordon.

I think there's almost zero chance of it happening, as I said. But it's a no-brainer for Clarke to ask the question if Marshall continues to sit on Derby's bench and Gordon continues to fanny about against Arbroath and Alloa every other week. The only other option is McLaughlin, but why bring in McGregor's backup if the man himself is in any way interested?

If Marshall doesn't win back his first team spot at Derby, or if he does and continues to look really bad for them, then people are going to start asking the question come early/mid-May.

Gordon has 5 more games at Championship level. None against Arbroath. He'll likely win PotY and then be facing the same strikers that McGregor faces week in, week out with a poorer a defence to protect him thus calling on him more.

We have no need to go crawling back to McGregor. He's not even that much better.

[G51]

5 minutes ago, Ludo*1 said:

Gordon has 5 more games at Championship level. None against Arbroath. He'll likely win PotY and then be facing the same strikers that McGregor faces week in, week out with a poorer a defence to protect him thus calling on him more.

We have no need to go crawling back to McGregor. He's not even that much better.

Gordon will not have played a Premiership game by the time the Euros started, so that's not really relevant.

Definitely saving that last sentence for the next Hearts game though.

[Ludo*1]

Just now, G51 said:

Gordon will not have played a Premiership game by the time the Euros started, so that's not really relevant.

Definitely saving that last sentence for the next Hearts game though.

McGregor isn't relevant to the discussion either. He's retired from international football.

I don't support Hearts, so enjoy saving the comment!

[paddymcp]

1 hour ago, craigkillie said:

On the topic of who will and won't be in the squad, I've just read that UEFA are considering extending the squad size to 25 or 26.

Wouldn’t really see the point in that tbh. 23 is more than enough considering about a quarter of them won’t get any game time. 

[Ray Patterson]

As much as Marshall (is rightfully) the hero in November, if you score 5 penalties, you are almost certainly going to win. How many penalty shoot-outs end up 5-5 after the first 10 spot kick? Barely any.

No Shootouts at Russia 2018 (4), France 2016 (3), Brazil 2014 (4), Poland-Ukraine 2012 (2), South Africa 2010 (2), Austria-Switzerland 2008 (2), Germany 2006 (4), Portugal 2004 (2), Japan-SK 2002 (2), BeNE 2000 (1) and France 98 (3) were 5-5 after 5 penalties each. It's been 29 shootouts in major tournaments since a 5-5 when funnily enough both semi-finals at Euro '96 were 5-5 after 5 penalties each.
 

Edited April 1, 2021 by ArabAuslander

[Scumjob]

Frightening that we're having to debate which late 30s keeper is the least worst option. An English Championship bench warmer, a formerly retired Scottish Championship player or a currently internationally retired player who went off in a huff.

They're all not ideal but I'd hope any will be up for one last big moment at the Euros. We have been pretty spoilt over the last 10-15 years with the three of them to be fair.

The real question is who is coming through for the next campaign?

Now would have probably been the time to go cap in hand to Angus Gunn similar to the Che Adams switch.

Edited April 1, 2021 by Scumjob

[Zazu]

8 hours ago, Ludo*1 said:

The only one pushing that narrative will be yourself.

No-one actively wants McGregor to come out of retirement bar Rangers fans. In saying that, probably not many Rangers fans care enough either, it's just you continually touting it.

I'm a massive hibs fan and absolutely despise Allan McGregor but wouldn't be opposed to him coming out of retirement for the Euros. Has been immense the past couple of seasons. 

Our GK options are really poor IMO, after right back its maybe our biggest problem area? Marshall is obviously a hero for his penalty saves, but his career the past few years hasn't been anything special. 

[Insert Amusing Pseudonym]

As an indicator of how seriously I should take xGa as a performance indicator for Gordon in the championship, I picked the 3-2 defeat to Raith at Tynecastle, possibly the nadir for Hearts defending this season.

Raith scored 3 goals that day.  Their xG for the game was 0.98, a game where they had two penalties,one of which Gordon saved.

So a game where Gordon saved a penalty, and was beaten by a tap in from 3 feet after catastrophic defending comes in as a game where he's conceded more than he should.