Are YOU Voting for the Alba Party?

[paolo2143]

2 hours ago, Stormzy said:

Which is why I smirk when people talk about consistent support for Indy over 50%. 

Sure there was in some polls, would that translate in an actual referendum, I doubt it. 

I think there was evidence ever since BoJo became PM and Brexit that support for Indy averaged over 50% for a year.

I have always said that to win a referendum you really need to have it averaging close to 55% for a good few months as you know that the Unionist propaganda machine will launch project fear to unfathomable levels during another Indy Ref,, we will be told that the world  as we know it will cease to exist if the unthinkable happens.

Unlike Brexit where 80% of right wing press was slavering for it like rabid dogs and TV media were pretty neutral, we will have exact opposite as 90% of press will be savaging it and  we cannot even rely on neutrality from TV media. I think it actually was quite an achievement for YES to have got 45% last time with all that against them, if it had been like that with Brexit it would never have passed.

At least this time we cannot be told the lie of stay with UK to save your place in EU, nor will we believe Better Together when they come with their pish about the Union working for Scotland and a lot of YES voters will be more hardened to Project Fear.

[picklish]

2 hours ago, HTG said:

You're correct about Europeans in Scotland - they'll have swung significantly. English ex parts? Maybe not so much. The big swing though may be women who have seen Nicola Sturgeon as a competent and compassionate leader through the pandemic. Certainly one that's put her heart and soul into the job. She's made mistakes but owned up to them. There are likely to be a decent number in this category who have gone from hard or soft No to soft Yes. Certainly more of them than have decided to follow the boy from Bath towards Galloway and his ilk. 

I just don't know if those women who are receptive to Sturgeon's performance during the pandemic were all that likely to be soft no's in the first place, some sure, but most? And particularly that the middle class who were strongly against independance pre-Brexit would be the most obvious swing after the shitshow of the months leading up to the actual leave date.

I suggested English-who've-moved-to-Scotland as they were largely  pro-union before, but I believe they are also typically pro-Europe, plus I know a couple anecdotally who say this. Whether it's representative, who knows, but it's certainly a factor.

How do you mean followed Wings to Galloway and his Ilk? Do you mean Salmond?

[BFTD]

1 hour ago, scottsdad said:

No chance voting for this. It can be added to the list of vanity project political parties along with:

Change UK (collection of misfits)
The Brexit Party (Farage)
The Reform Party (Farage)
The Respect Party (Galloway)
Workers Party of Britain (Galloway)
All For Unity (Galloway again)
Solidarity (Sheridan)

Ooh, this is a fun list. Don't forget Dignitas (Veritas, whatever it was called), Robert Kilroy-Silk's attempt at further ruining his career, and James Goldsmith's Referendum Party, which took credit for punting inexplicable shagger David Mellor out of office, despite Goldsmith losing his deposit. Also enjoyed Private Eye's long-running schtick of portraying him as Sir Jammy Goldfinger, Bond villain.

Then there's Lord David Owen who, after not finding enough people to boost his ego in any of the major political parties (and he tried them all), invented the Social Democratic Party, the Independent Group of the Eighties. A couple of dozen Labour MPs were drawn in to his orbit, most of whom naturally lost their seats at the next election. Remarkably, they're still going after everyone but Owen jumped ship to the Liberals, and have since managed to amass as few as 125 total votes.

...and we're presumably all familiar with Screaming Lord Sutch and his Standing at the Back Dressed Stupidly and Looking Stupid Monster Raving Loony Party, who seemed the most electable of all of the above.

There must have been more of these back in the day. Auld yins, please share your memories of political vanity projects.

[Donathan]

The Brexit Party won the European elections in 2019, leading to the Tory cabinet telling May it was time to go and the Tories replacing her administration with a much more Eurosceptic government led by Johnson who tried to force a no deal Brexit and eventually settled on a deal that was much harder Brexit compared to May’s deal which they then went to the public and won support for at the December general election.

It’s wrong to say the Brexit Party were a vanity project. Their successful outflanking of the Tories genuinely helped drive a harder Brexit than May would have gone for and thus their raison d’etre was achieved

[BFTD]

1 minute ago, Donathan said:

The Brexit Party won the European elections in 2019, leading to the Tory cabinet telling May it was time to go and the Tories replacing her administration with a much more Eurosceptic government led by Johnson who tried to force a no deal Brexit and eventually settled on a deal that was much harder Brexit compared to May’s deal which they then went to the public and won support for at the December general election.

It’s wrong to say the Brexit Party were a vanity project. Their successful outflanking of the Tories genuinely helped drive a harder Brexit than May would have gone for and thus their raison d’etre was achieved

It can be, and was, successful and also a vanity project.

[scottsdad]

23 minutes ago, BFTD said:

Ooh, this is a fun list. Don't forget Dignitas (Veritas, whatever it was called), Robert Kilroy-Silk's attempt at further ruining his career, and James Goldsmith's Referendum Party, which took credit for punting inexplicable shagger David Mellor out of office, despite Goldsmith losing his deposit. Also enjoyed Private Eye's long-running schtick of portraying him as Sir Jammy Goldfinger, Bond villain.

Then there's Lord David Owen who, after not finding enough people to boost his ego in any of the major political parties (and he tried them all), invented the Social Democratic Party, the Independent Group of the Eighties. A couple of dozen Labour MPs were drawn in to his orbit, most of whom naturally lost their seats at the next election. Remarkably, they're still going after everyone but Owen jumped ship to the Liberals, and have since managed to amass as few as 125 total votes.

...and we're presumably all familiar with Screaming Lord Sutch and his Standing at the Back Dressed Stupidly and Looking Stupid Monster Raving Loony Party, who seemed the most electable of all of the above.

There must have been more of these back in the day. Auld yins, please share your memories of political vanity projects.

I'd forgotten about some of these! 

Makes you wonder what would be wrong with standing as an independent (like Dennis Canavan did successfully). 

[topcat(The most tip top)]

The Raving Loony movement was set back by a massive schism in the early 90s between the "Official" Monster Raving Loony Party and the breakaway Raving Loony Green Giant Party

[madwullie]

I see Jim Spencer appears to have a stauner at all this. Looks like he'd be voting yes in this poll 

[BFTD]

18 minutes ago, scottsdad said:

I'd forgotten about some of these! 

Makes you wonder what would be wrong with standing as an independent (like Dennis Canavan did successfully). 

It makes it seem like a grander thing. Billy Wankstain standing under his own name lets people think about whether or not they actually like Billy Wankstain. The Wankulus Party? Wow, that sounds grand; important. I bet they have interesting views on vital issues. Plus, it must be some kind of movement; loads of people working behind the scenes and candidates in other areas.

Well, that's likely what goes through Billy's head, anyway.

[Guest Bob Mahelp]

1 hour ago, Donathan said:

The Brexit Party won the European elections in 2019, leading to the Tory cabinet telling May it was time to go and the Tories replacing her administration with a much more Eurosceptic government led by Johnson who tried to force a no deal Brexit and eventually settled on a deal that was much harder Brexit compared to May’s deal which they then went to the public and won support for at the December general election.

It’s wrong to say the Brexit Party were a vanity project. Their successful outflanking of the Tories genuinely helped drive a harder Brexit than May would have gone for and thus their raison d’etre was achieved

It's equally true to say that UKIP have been the most succesful political party in the country over the last 10 years. 

They went from being a fringe party of right-wing lunatics, to the party that effectively forms the Westminster government. All of it by being able to persuade the country, and more importantly the Tory party, that they carried vastly more power than they actually did. 

Farage was(is) a vile excuse for a human being, but from absolutely nothing he managed to conjure up the most explosive event in British politics since the war, and put in place an administration that is the most right wing in history. 

And all of that without ever being elected as an MP. 

Genius. Sheer fucking genius. 

 

[Joey Jo Jo Junior Shabadoo]

I’ll be voting SNP/Wankstain in May.

[GordonS]

7 hours ago, picklish said:

What do you think it is that the SNP have done to increase independence support this past year? Surely it's been the result of Brexit, for the Europeans working in Scottish hospitals/shops/universities, for the English 'ex-pats' who see Scotland as a way out of their Brexit nightmare, for the middle class who have holidays homes in France, all of whom would more likely have voted No before. I think those are sufficient numbers to change the polling. Sturgeons handling of the pandemic would have helped but I can't see it as the driving force

 

John Curtice's take on polling is that the increase in support for independence in 2020 is it's pretty much entirely based on people seeing Sturgeon's handling of the pandemic and it giving them confidence that she can handle the big stuff. It doesn't seem to be more women than men.

I doubt it would be European citizens - while you could theorise than support for independence would have grown among that group, their numbers have diminished as many have left the UK. 

It certainly wasn't Brexit, which might have caused a little realignment within the numbers, with some Yessers moving to No and some Noes moving to Yes - but the net effect was marginal.

Edited March 29, 2021 by GordonS

[btb]

Live in Ayr and will be voting SNP for the Constituency and Green on the List votes - again!

[carpetmonster]

2 hours ago, scottsdad said:

I'd forgotten about some of these! 

Makes you wonder what would be wrong with standing as an independent (like Dennis Canavan did successfully). 

Dennis Canavan being a likeable man of principle is perhaps the element that scuppers this one. 

[DeeTillEhDeh]

John Curtice's take on polling is that the increase in support for independence in 2020 is it's pretty much entirely based on people seeing Sturgeon's handling of the pandemic and it giving them confidence that she can handle the big stuff. It doesn't seem to be more women than men.
I doubt it would be European citizens - while you could theorise than support for independence would have grown among that group, their numbers have diminished as many have left the UK. 
It certainly wasn't Brexit, which might have caused a little realignment within the numbers, with some Yessers moving to No and some Noes moving to Yes - but the next effect was marginal.

The women thing is because the gender gap on independence has gone in the past year.

Before 2020, women were less likely to be favourable to Yes than men.

[madwullie]

10 minutes ago, Pato said:

Who's that?

Or are you meaning Dundee's favourite ginger lavvy brush in human form?

Yeah it must have been auto correct. Posting on the move. Busy life etc. You know how it is 

Edited March 29, 2021 by madwullie

[picklish]

35 minutes ago, GordonS said:

John Curtice's take on polling is that the increase in support for independence in 2020 is it's pretty much entirely based on people seeing Sturgeon's handling of the pandemic and it giving them confidence that she can handle the big stuff. It doesn't seem to be more women than men.

I doubt it would be European citizens - while you could theorise than support for independence would have grown among that group, their numbers have diminished as many have left the UK. 

It certainly wasn't Brexit, which might have caused a little realignment within the numbers, with some Yessers moving to No and some Noes moving to Yes - but the next effect was marginal.

Scottish Brexiteers were outnumbered by almost 2 to1 though, so I'd be amazed if the same numbers went each way. Especially since 'leaving the European Union' is exactly the change in conditions that makes having another referendum perfectly reasonable. And Sturgeon herself agrees

Quote

NS - More than 230,000 people from across Europe have made Scotland their home. They are part of who we are, they are our friends and family and we really want them to stay.

...

We are now faced with a hard Brexit against our will, at the worst possible time in the middle of a pandemic and economic recession. It will mean disruption in the short term, while establishing new, long-term barriers. Our people will be less safe and their right to work, study and live elsewhere in Europe will be restricted. This includes the loss of Erasmus which saw more than 2,000 Scottish students, staff and learners use the scheme each year.

It is therefore not surprising that a consistent majority of people in Scotland now say they are in favor of becoming an independent country. 

If it is the case that the FMs performance was the driving factor, I wouldn't say that was a healthy state of affairs, if it was entirely reliant on Sturgeon's popularity rather than changes in material conditions, because obviously political popularity waxes and wanes. Fine if there's to be a referendum soon.

The Curtice BBC article I found says Sturgeon's popularity "has persuaded some former No voters to change sides" not "pretty much entirely"

[D.V.T.]

Alex Arthur announced as a candidate for the Alba Party

[GordonS]

58 minutes ago, DeeTillEhDeh said:

The women thing is because the gender gap on independence has gone in the past year.

Before 2020, women were less likely to be favourable to Yes than men.

It had already closed significantly when Nicola Sturgeon became leader of the SNP, but yes.

[Bula Bairn]

6 hours ago, scottsdad said:

No chance voting for this. It can be added to the list of vanity project political parties along with:

Change UK (collection of misfits)

The Brexit Party (Farage)

The Reform Party (Farage)

The Respect Party (Galloway)

Workers Party of Britain (Galloway)

All For Unity (Galloway again)

Solidarity (Sheridan)

Alba is a list only party and has managed to shift the debate after a couple of days.  (picking up 2 MPs along the way) 

I've voted SNP for 25 years but considering giving Alba my 2nd vote - Tories and Labour have a combined 45 list seats against the SNP's 4 so if Alba can help redress that for indy parties then I'd be happy.