Are YOU Voting for the Alba Party?

[DeeTillEhDeh]

I’m a member and voting SNP/Green because it’s the best option.  Country before party.

Same here.

[NotThePars]

2 hours ago, invergowrie arab said:

It's hard. I have delivered 1000 leaflets this week telling people to use both votes SNP so it would seem a bit hypocritical not to. I don't think it's the right tactic though.

I might justify green on the list by treating it like STV and pretending it's my next preference.

STV is just a much better system than this 

 

3 hours ago, ThatBoyRonaldo said:

I'm voting both votes SNP. As a member I think it's a bit dishonest to do otherwise unless you've got some especially good reason.

Nobody needs to know tho

[Salt n Vinegar]

2 hours ago, ThatBoyRonaldo said:

I'm voting both votes SNP. As a member I think it's a bit dishonest to do otherwise unless you've got some especially good reason.

Look, a moderately well-educated 10 year old can "do sums".  I've yet to see a calculation that results in a good outcome (i.e. as far as I'm concerned, Pro-independence) of voting SNP 1&2 in most of the country. Take Lothian as an example. Splitting the pro-indy list vote between the SNP, Greens and Alba just makes it more likely that the Tories, Labour or LibDems will have larger vote counts than each of them and will win otherwise winnable list seats thus reducing parliamentary support for the cause of independence.  It would only work, I think, if the SNP lost FPTP seats in Lothian.  If the SNP hold the FPTP seats that the won last time, or  win more seats, like Edinburgh Central, SNP votes on the list become even more "wasted".  I am in Edinburgh and I have a postal vote this time. I have voted SNP for the constituency and the Greens on the list.  I can't see the Alba shower making any significant dent in the Greens or the SNP votes - certainly not enough to go above them in the votes total table.  They have absolutely no chance of taking votes from the Tories, Labour or the LibDems!  In my view, a vote for Alba unnecessarily splits a well established Pro-independence voting block. Electorally, Alba they are the unionists best friend on the lists and any respect I had for Alex Salmond is long gone... and in case Alex is watching this thread, which I doubt, I consider myself to be a "fair-minded person" .  He had his chance, and he blew it.  He wants to move on.  I wish him all the best in moving on.  Getting back into front line, confrontational politics is NOT moving on. The plain fact that his involvement might now adversely affect the cause of independence is absolutely damnable.  He has let his ego get the better of him. Malt now in hand! 

[Ginaro]

30 minutes ago, Salt n Vinegar said:

I've yet to see a calculation that results in a good outcome (i.e. as far as I'm concerned, Pro-independence) of voting SNP 1&2 in most of the country.

Indeed. If you're in Mid Scotland & Fife then you should be going Green on the list if you want another Independence MSP - just 3% more on the Green vote should be enough for another MSP at the expense of a Tory. That's going by the two latest polls I saw online and plugged into a spreadsheet, assuming the same FPTP results as last time. Otherwise it's just going to be exactly the same as last election with SNP 8, Lib Dem 1, and Con 4, Lab 2, Grn 1 on the list.

Even if you're worried about the Tories winning a constituency seat in Perthshire for example, the SNP's list vote still wouldn't be enough to change the list results. Once again a few % going to Green would probably be enough for a second list seat to make up for it.

And as for getting more SNP list votes - it would basically take all of the Green votes to go to the SNP for them to gain list seats from the Unionists, i.e. not going to happen.

Try playing about with this tool if you don't want to use a spreadsheet (it has the YouGov numbers in it): http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/swingometer/scottish-parliament?election=2016s&region=mid-scotland-and-fife&cSNP=45&cCON=21&cLAB=21&cLD=11&rSNP=38&rCON=27&rLAB=13&rLD=9&rGRN=10&rUKIP=0&rAFU=1&rALBA=1&rRefUK=0#MidScotlandandFife

Edited April 22, 2021 by Ginaro

[GordonS]

1 hour ago, ICTJohnboy said:

If all the political experts and pundits on here, and god knows there's plenty of them, can't agree on where to cast their allotted list vote, to help the SNP secure a decent majority, what chance does Joe Bloggs, or Tom Dick and Harry, who may not spend much time studying the options, have of doing the right thing?

If your priority is an SNP majority then obviously your best option is SNP on both papers.

If it's a pro-independence majority you care about most then lots of factors come into play - where do you live, what do you think other people will do, how do you feel about the Greens, how do you feel about sleepy cuddles, do you worry about gaming the system, and so on.

[Salt n Vinegar]

3 minutes ago, GordonS said:

If your priority is an SNP majority then obviously your best option is SNP on both papers.

If it's a pro-independence majority you care about most then lots of factors come into play - where do you live, what do you think other people will do, how do you feel about the Greens, how do you feel about sleepy cuddles, do you worry about gaming the system, and so on.

Malt now in hand so further comment might now be a bit unreliable... "gaming the system" in any election is pretty common - voting x to keep y out.  Reluctant though I am to talk about the Toadies - oops Tories - aren't they gaming the system by asking for all  unionist votes for them to stop indyref2? 

[Salt n Vinegar]

21 minutes ago, GordonS said:

If your priority is an SNP majority then obviously your best option is SNP on both papers.

If it's a pro-independence majority you care about most then lots of factors come into play - where do you live, what do you think other people will do, how do you feel about the Greens, how do you feel about sleepy cuddles, do you worry about gaming the system, and so on.

Not if giving your list vote to anyone other than another credible pro-independence party (the Greens? ) results in a Tory, Labour or LibDem candidate winning a list seat. As I understand it, what you say is only likely to work in the Highlands or the Borders. I'll accept what you say if you can demonstrate the stats that support your view outwith these areas. Mrs Salt n Vinegar and my older laddie have still to fill out their postal votes, so if you cod set out the possible stats that support your view in Lothian it would be particularly helpful! I

[Busta Nut]

Are people really considering this mob?

[Baxter Parp]

[wirez]

I seem to recall 2016 being a fairly vintage year for the UKippers....and GrannyD.

All change now eh?

[vikingTON]

8 hours ago, Salt n Vinegar said:

Look, a moderately well-educated 10 year old can "do sums".  I've yet to see a calculation that results in a good outcome (i.e. as far as I'm concerned, Pro-independence) of voting SNP 1&2 in most of the country. Take Lothian as an example. Splitting the pro-indy list vote between the SNP, Greens and Alba just makes it more likely that the Tories, Labour or LibDems will have larger vote counts than each of them and will win otherwise winnable list seats thus reducing parliamentary support for the cause of independence.  It would only work, I think, if the SNP lost FPTP seats in Lothian.  If the SNP hold the FPTP seats that the won last time, or  win more seats, like Edinburgh Central, SNP votes on the list become even more "wasted". 

Wrong way round. That's an argument for more people to stop voting SNP on the list in Lothian - where they picked up 0 seats last time. The only argument for giving the SNP a second vote is if you expect them to lose FPTP seats: in which case they'd potentially need (and get) a list seat to compensate for their high vote share.

Quote

In my view, a vote for Alba unnecessarily splits a well established Pro-independence voting block.

It's clearly not that well established, given that the SNP picked up 950,000 list votes in 2016 (10% lower than their constituency vote) and the Greens 150,000 more on the list (which also shows that it isn't a simple 2+2 sum: Unionists also gave second votes to the Greens). Just under 10% of the SNP constituency vote went elsewhere in the list in 2016. That leaves a huge amount of list votes in the Central Belt and Aberdeenshire that were not redistributed by this 'well-established voting block' at all.

Despite the copious volumes of tears and snotters about it on here, many voters are simply not going to vote Green on the list: most likely because they dislike the costs of their lentil-munching, eco-warrior agenda, or because they're not socially progressive voters to begin with. There is absolutely room then for a pro-independence party to cater for that constituency of voters on the list, because telling them to (possibly) hold their nose and vote SNP, before definitely holding their nose to vote Green is not an effective message. Otherwise they'll continue to obviously waste their list vote. 

Edited April 23, 2021 by vikingTON

[GordonS]

8 hours ago, Salt n Vinegar said:

Not if giving your list vote to anyone other than another credible pro-independence party (the Greens? ) results in a Tory, Labour or LibDem candidate winning a list seat. As I understand it, what you say is only likely to work in the Highlands or the Borders. I'll accept what you say if you can demonstrate the stats that support your view outwith these areas. Mrs Salt n Vinegar and my older laddie have still to fill out their postal votes, so if you cod set out the possible stats that support your view in Lothian it would be particularly helpful! I

If you want an SNP majority like the poster said, not just a pro-independence majority, then obviously you should use both votes for SNP.

All of this tactical voting on the regions thing is predicated on the idea that we can confidently predict what everyone else is going to do and that there are never surprises or changes. For example, Mid Scotland & Fife - in 2011 the SNP got someone off the list despite winning 8 out of 9 constituencies, with just 4% points more than they got in 2016. They could easily lose Perthshire South and Kinross-shire this time, taking 7 of 9 constituencies, and become competitive for a list seat again with a lower regional share.

In 2011 the SNP won 53 constituencies and 16 list seats, while polling only slightly higher on the regional vote than they are now. Fact is, the vast majority of people who vote SNP on the constituency are going to vote SNP on the list, it's only a question of by how much.

I've always says the most efficient way of voting for a pro-independence government is to vote Green on the list no matter where you are. But that only works if lots of other people you do it. It's just as much of a wasted vote to vote for a party that gets under 5% as one that gets 40% but wins all the constituencies.

Besides, there will be plenty of SNP voters who don't like either the Greens or Alba.

[ICTChris]

7 minutes ago, ThatBoyRonaldo said:

It's a similar thing to these Alba nutcases in some ways. If you get to the stage where you think the leadership of the party conspired to make up crimes and send someone to jail, it's probably the right thing to do to leave that party? Don't really get the need for all the drama over it, or the false pleas for 'unity in the movement' or whatever. If all these folk think the SNP is corrupt and full of paedo enablers, or whatever fairy story their bloggers are telling them this week, why would they want unity with us. 

One amusing thing about the Alba billboard that was trailed around our estate was that it had a huge SNP sign on it.  You have to assume a lot of them believe that Nicola Sturgeon tried to fit up a political rival and send him to prison on spurious charges but they are urging people to vote for her and her party.

I suppose the most poisonous feuds take place between people who are closer than actual political opponents.

[wirez]

I think the analogy of treating a political party like a fitba team holds up pretty well.

Recent posts along the lines of -

"I've delivered 1000 leaflets with a 'both votes SNP' message, that deep down, I know to be shite."

"If I was just a punter, I'd vote Greens on the list, but I'm a member"

God forbid you actually think for yourselves lads.

 

[Ginaro]

1 hour ago, GordonS said:

For example, Mid Scotland & Fife - in 2011 the SNP got someone off the list despite winning 8 out of 9 constituencies, with just 4% points more than they got in 2016. They could easily lose Perthshire South and Kinross-shire this time, taking 7 of 9 constituencies, and become competitive for a list seat again with a lower regional share.

With YouGov's numbers that would just about be true (SNP 38, CON 27, LAB 13, LIB 9, GRN 10) though for ComRes' numbers it wouldn't (SNP 36, CON 21, LAB 18, LIB 10, GRN 9) - but in both cases another 1 or 2% for the Greens would give them the final list seat to make up for the SNP's loss. 

[Granny Danger]

16 minutes ago, wirez said:

I think the analogy of treating a political party like a fitba team holds up pretty well.

Recent posts along the lines of -

"I've delivered 1000 leaflets with a 'both votes SNP' message, that deep down, I know to be shite."

"If I was just a punter, I'd vote Greens on the list, but I'm a member"

God forbid you actually think for yourselves lads.

 

“You don’t know what you’re doing.  You don’t know what you’re doing”.

To Galloway after the count “We can see you sneaking out...”

To DRoss after the Tories lose seats “Sacked in the morning, you’re getting sacked in the morning...”

 

[invergowrie arab]

50 minutes ago, wirez said:

I think the analogy of treating a political party like a fitba team holds up pretty well.

Recent posts along the lines of -

"I've delivered 1000 leaflets with a 'both votes SNP' message, that deep down, I know to be shite."

"If I was just a punter, I'd vote Greens on the list, but I'm a member"

God forbid you actually think for yourselves lads.

 

I'm a member of a political party and part of that comes with accepting the democratically agreed policies and strategies of the party.

If you can't tell the difference between that and groupthink that's on you.

It would be weird to agree with literally everything a party says and does.

It would also be extremely weird for any party, in their official communications, to say anything other than vote for me.

I did consider stepping down from my role within the party over the hypocrisy of both votes and my own likely vote.

 Ultimately I didnt think that would advance the cause of independence or the SNP  but it had crossed my mind.

I'll probably still vote Green though. Doesn't sit well with me but there we go i didnt choose the voting system 

Alba still c***s tho.

[GordonS]

1 hour ago, Ginaro said:

With YouGov's numbers that would just about be true (SNP 38, CON 27, LAB 13, LIB 9, GRN 10) though for ComRes' numbers it wouldn't (SNP 36, CON 21, LAB 18, LIB 10, GRN 9) - but in both cases another 1 or 2% for the Greens would give them the final list seat to make up for the SNP's loss. 

That's the thing though - if your priority is an SNP majority rather than a pro-independence majority, nobody can say voting SNP on the Mid Scotland & Fife list is a wasted vote. We also need to take the polls with a pinch of salt, they could be wrong by 5 points either way on every party and it wouldn't be a shock.

[jakedee]

And yet, your sleepy goblin hasn't been allowed to appear on leader debates...
I did not intend to post again, but I feel that I must.  I am not accepting any loss in support for Independence is due to Another Pro Independence party being formed by your sleepy cuddle goblin.  If the SNP don't get a majority at Holyrood (which is unlikely in the first place given the set up) then the blame should not be directed toward the Alba party (ref: Baxter parp) who are list only.  Maybe direct the anger towards the Greens who are also standing against the SNP in constituency seats?  Or god forbid, the SNP themselves that are being run in an autocratic fashion. 
The SNP for the past 5 years have done nothing to advance Independence, they have been weak.  Nicola Sturgeon is weak.  The SNP used to be all for Independence, but it has become the party of devolution.  Ask yourself why it is more important to put through legislation on hate crime and gender reform than the one thing, the sole thing, the only thing that unites Independence supporters.  Why?  If your answer is they don't have the powers to do that, then why are they opposing, yes opposing, a court case that would determine whether the Scottish people have the right to call a referendum without westminster permission.  Its fucking insane. Independence used to be top of the list, now it is somewhere under a pile of shit.
So it is absolutely absurd that a vote for Alba would be to blame if the SNP don't get a majority, the SNP will be to blame if they don't get a majority. 
I have voted and I voted for the good of my country that I love.   I voted SNP on the constituency and Alba on the list. 
 
 
 
 

If this is to be taken seriously, then Alba wouldn't have put list candidates in the South of Scotland or H&I's.
Haven't seen parties such as UKIP, Galloway's lot or the family party get invites to leaders debates.
The post earlier re how much media coverage each "party leader" has recieved shows that Alba are receiving more attention than their status deserves.

[Genuine Hibs Fan]

Nicola Sturgeon is a fair few not great things but in what way is she weak? She's the fairly long standing First Minister of Scotland, with little threat to her position as such in this election, with extremely good approval ratings despite being the leader of a party that half the country fundamentally don't like, and has managed to dominate most of her internal enemies or waved them off to a fringe party which could still end up with 0 msps. I'm not even a big fan of her or the Snp but weak is a weird one to throw at her. 

 

Edited April 23, 2021 by Genuine Hibs Fan