Israel Vs Scotland 28th March

[Insert Amusing Pseudonym]

32 minutes ago, Monkey Tennis said:

He's got a point though.

It's a popular refrain when people bemoan a Scotland stumble over a lower ranked side, that the issue is vaulting expectation, or to use your phrase, a belief that we should 'wipe the floor' with them. 

I rarely see that.  Most of us are smart enough to know that football has changed and that many traditionally weaker sides are no longer that at all.   

However, most of us also know how qualification works and how failed campaigns look.  We also have this ranking system which is imperfect, but provides an indication of nations' relative strength.

It's these things that mean we feel there's a need and a realistic hope that we'll beat or 'dispatch' teams like  Israel.  That's what's reflected here, not some arrogant or dated belief in a natural footballing superiority.

I still think there's a general belief that the rankings are a one way system for us though - teams consistently rated  far above are dismissed as not that good but anyone the same distance below is a team we should beat every time.

In order to qualify for any tournament atm we need to exceed expectation.  

[Monkey Tennis]

1 minute ago, Insert Amusing Pseudonym said:

I still think there's a general belief that the rankings are a one way system for us though - teams consistently rated  far above are dismissed as not that good but anyone the same distance below is a team we should beat every time.

In order to qualify for any tournament atm we need to exceed expectation.  

Again, I don't agree with the first part.

I was disappointed on Thursday there, not because we should be beating Austria, but because we need to. 

[Insert Amusing Pseudonym]

1 minute ago, Monkey Tennis said:

Again, I don't agree with the first part.

I was disappointed on Thursday there, not because we should be beating Austria, but because we need to. 

You don't have to go far in this forum to see quite a number of folk claiming Austria are no better than us.  

[Ira Gaines]

I thought, after a poor first 20, we played reasonably well against Austria, but still gave them too much on the edge of the box. We're going to keep conceding stupid goals from shots from there because we continue to make those same mistakes.

I feel like that was a game we could have won. Austria are a very decent side, but didn't play like it much of that game. We definitely had a chance there.

[Diamonds are Forever]

19 hours ago, Dunning1874 said:

We weren't playing a half decent team tonight. Teams who qualify for tournaments don't drop points against lower seeds. Israel are a team you need to take six points from six against, as Denmark and Austria will.

Just as dropping points v Kazakhstan, Lithuania, Georgia, Macedonia, Wales, Lithuania, Macedonia, Georgia, Belarus, Moldova, Lithuania and the Faroe Islands has cost us in every group going back to 2004, not taking six points from Israel leaves us looking for snookers already.

A draw at home to your direct qualification rivals isn't ideal but isn't necessarily a disaster. On the other hand every game v the fourth, fifth and sixth seeds is must win.

Until we start taking 18 points from 18 against those teams, we won't be finishing in the top two of groups.

 

I had some spare time earlier and was sad enough to look into this in more depth. Was keen to see the last time we beat all the lower seeded sides than us. The group sizes vary from 5 to 7 teams, and obviously our seeding changes meaning we've had anything from 2-4 teams seeded below us. However your point turns out to be completely correct.

The last time we beat the lower seeds home and away in a group was 2002 WC qualifying, but this was a 5 team group and Latvia and San Marino were the 2 teams we managed to beat, so it was hardly a big ask. The group came down to the results between us, Belgium and Croatia - thanks to chucking a 2 goal lead against Belgium we didn't qualify.

The time before that was Euro 96 where we beat Finland, Faroes and San Marino home and away. We managed to qualify above Greece, alongside Russia.

So basically apart from 2002 when we managed to beat Latvia home and away, it's 25 years since we beat all the lower seeded teams in a qualifying group. This is clearly why we do not qualify. We didn't even manage it in France 98 qualifying but crucially beat Austria and Sweden at home to make up for it.

If we'd managed to win these games against lower ranked sides we'd have either qualified automatically or got play-offs for the following tournaments - 2004 (We'd have finished as group winners ahead of Germany had we beaten Faroes and Lithuania!), 2006, 2008 (potentially, would have gone to goal difference or head to head) 2010, 2012 (again, would have been goal difference or head to head) 2014, 2016, and 2018.

These are tournaments we missed out on because we didn't take maximum points in double headers against teams like Lithuania, Macedonia, Faroe Islands and Georgia. That is why last night was so frustrating to me. It wasn't that we didn't win, it was that there was a clear lack of appreciation over how crucial it was to win that game. The last 25 minutes should have been us throwing the kitchen sink at Israel, risking our point to get 3 because we know from the last 20 years that dropped points against lower ranked sides is what has stopped us qualifying. Instead the substitutions and the lack of urgency suggested a point wasn't too bad. History shows us that for us to qualify we need to beat every lower team home and away, and if we do slip up in one of them we have to make up for it by having the upper hand in head to heads with your qualifying rivals. This is obviously easier said than done, but again it is the seeming lacking of awareness over how important it is for us that has frustrated me (over the last few years under Strachan and Levein, not just Clarke) and lots of other fans. For all the debate over our ability to produce players over the last 20 years, it is actually our inability to beat teams that have worse players than us that has cost us, it is a mindset and mentality as much as anything else.

 

Edited March 29, 2021 by Diamonds are Forever

[Monkey Tennis]

11 minutes ago, Diamonds are Forever said:

 

I had some spare time earlier and was sad enough to look into this in more depth. Was keen to see the last time we beat all the lower seeded sides than us. The group sizes vary from 5 to 7 teams, and obviously our seeding changes meaning we've had anything from 2-4 teams seeded below us. However your point turns out to be completely correct.

The last time we beat the lower seeds home and away in a group was 2002 WC qualifying, but this was a 5 team group and Latvia and San Marino were the 2 teams we managed to beat, so it was hardly a big ask. The group came down to the results between us, Belgium and Croatia - thanks to chucking a 2 goal lead against Belgium we didn't qualify.

The time before that was Euro 96 where we beat Finland, Faroes and San Marino home and away. We managed to qualify above Greece, alongside Russia.

So basically apart from 2002 when we managed to beat Latvia home and away, it's 25 years since we beat all the lower seeded teams in a qualifying group. This is clearly why we do not qualify. We didn't even manage it in France 98 qualifying but crucially beat Austria and Sweden at home to make up for it.

If we'd managed to win these games against lower ranked sides we'd have either qualified automatically or got play-offs for the following tournaments - 2004 (We'd have finished as group winners ahead of Germany had we beaten Faroes and Lithuania!), 2006, 2008 (potentially, would have gone to goal difference or head to head) 2010, 2012 (again, would have been goal difference or head to head) 2014, 2016, and 2018.

These are tournaments we missed out on because we didn't take maximum points in double headers against teams like Lithuania, Macedonia, Faroe Island, Georgia. That is why last night was so frustrating to me. It wasn't that we didn't win, it was that there was a clear lack of appreciation over how crucial it was to win that game. The last 25 minutes should have been us throwing the kitchen sink at Israel, risking our point to get 3 because we know from the last 20 years that dropped points against lower ranked sides is what has stopped us qualifying. Instead the substitutions and the lack of urgency suggested a point wasn't too bad. History shows us that for us to qualify we need to beat every lower team home and away, and if we do slip up in one of them we have to make up for it by having the upper head in head to heads with your qualifying rivals. This is obviously easier said than done, but again it is the seeming lacking of awareness over how important it is for us that has frustrated me (over the last few years under Strachan and Levein, not just Clarke) and lots of other fans. For all the debate over our ability to produce players over the last 20 years, it is actually our inability to beat teams that have worse players than us that has cost us, it is a mindset and mentality as much as anything else.

 

Tremendous post.

It really does identify the issue and, as you say, indicate why last night's result is so costly.

[Thumper]

36 minutes ago, Diamonds are Forever said:

 

I had some spare time earlier and was sad enough to look into this in more depth. Was keen to see the last time we beat all the lower seeded sides than us. The group sizes vary from 5 to 7 teams, and obviously our seeding changes meaning we've had anything from 2-4 teams seeded below us. However your point turns out to be completely correct.

The last time we beat the lower seeds home and away in a group was 2002 WC qualifying, but this was a 5 team group and Latvia and San Marino were the 2 teams we managed to beat, so it was hardly a big ask. The group came down to the results between us, Belgium and Croatia - thanks to chucking a 2 goal lead against Belgium we didn't qualify.

The time before that was Euro 96 where we beat Finland, Faroes and San Marino home and away. We managed to qualify above Greece, alongside Russia.

So basically apart from 2002 when we managed to beat Latvia home and away, it's 25 years since we beat all the lower seeded teams in a qualifying group. This is clearly why we do not qualify. We didn't even manage it in France 98 qualifying but crucially beat Austria and Sweden at home to make up for it.

If we'd managed to win these games against lower ranked sides we'd have either qualified automatically or got play-offs for the following tournaments - 2004 (We'd have finished as group winners ahead of Germany had we beaten Faroes and Lithuania!), 2006, 2008 (potentially, would have gone to goal difference or head to head) 2010, 2012 (again, would have been goal difference or head to head) 2014, 2016, and 2018.

These are tournaments we missed out on because we didn't take maximum points in double headers against teams like Lithuania, Macedonia, Faroe Islands and Georgia. That is why last night was so frustrating to me. It wasn't that we didn't win, it was that there was a clear lack of appreciation over how crucial it was to win that game. The last 25 minutes should have been us throwing the kitchen sink at Israel, risking our point to get 3 because we know from the last 20 years that dropped points against lower ranked sides is what has stopped us qualifying. Instead the substitutions and the lack of urgency suggested a point wasn't too bad. History shows us that for us to qualify we need to beat every lower team home and away, and if we do slip up in one of them we have to make up for it by having the upper hand in head to heads with your qualifying rivals. This is obviously easier said than done, but again it is the seeming lacking of awareness over how important it is for us that has frustrated me (over the last few years under Strachan and Levein, not just Clarke) and lots of other fans. For all the debate over our ability to produce players over the last 20 years, it is actually our inability to beat teams that have worse players than us that has cost us, it is a mindset and mentality as much as anything else.

 

Could we get this stencilled on the wall of Hampden please?

Qualified once in twelve attempts and yet the phrase "not a disaster" has been absolutely commonplace in discussing every single campaign.

[Monkey Tennis]

That 'Diamonds are Forever' post does show things starkly.

It's dead right to say it was worth risking a point for all three last night, because Israel pocketing three points probably wouldn't ultimately matter that much.   The same can't be said of the Austria game where denying them full points had value.  We really need to go all out against the 'weaker' sides though.  

You have to assume that similar analysis goes on in places that matter, but if it does, it genuinely doesn't seem to inform our approach in the games, or the language that surrounds them.

 

A separate but related point that gets me, concerns what's necessitated by these dropped points.  As highlighted, we survived not beating Estonia for 98 by beating Sweden and Austria at home.  In those other tournaments though, aside from the glorious France games, we've had an awful habit of writing off the matches with the big gun.  Usually, the top side does drop points in the campaign, but it's seldom to us, and again the 'free hit' language tends not to help.  I can think of home draws with England and Germany, but usually there's nothing and we accept it.

I think we generally fail to do either of things required to qualify, which are to avoid slip ups, or spring a surprise.

 

[HuttonDressedAsLahm]

4 minutes ago, Thumper said:

Could we get this stencilled on the wall of Hampden please?

Qualified once in twelve attempts and yet the phrase "not a disaster" has been absolutely commonplace in discussing every single campaign.

We should just name the countries in which it allfell apart.

We all know which ones they were, we remember the abject performances, and we remember the media/team nonsense about “a draw with Lithuania salvaged by McArthur in the final minutes could be an important point at the end of the group.”

[Thumper]

9 minutes ago, HuttonDressedAsLahm said:

We should just name the countries in which it allfell apart.

We all know which ones they were, we remember the abject performances, and we remember the media/team nonsense about “a draw with Lithuania salvaged by McArthur in the final minutes could be an important point at the end of the group.”

We could all rattle off a half-dozen of them at least. Seemingly the primary criterion for being Scotland manager is having that part of your brain which says "a home draw to Lithuania is not a good result" burned away with a soldering iron.

Edited March 29, 2021 by Thumper

[Diamonds are Forever]

8 minutes ago, Monkey Tennis said:

That 'Diamonds are Forever' post does show things starkly.

It's dead right to say it was worth risking a point for all three last night, because Israel pocketing three points probably wouldn't ultimately matter that much.   The same can't be said of the Austria game where denying them full points had value.  We really need to go all out against the 'weaker' sides though.  

You have to assume that similar analysis goes on in places that matter, but if it does, it genuinely doesn't seem to inform our approach in the games, or the language that surrounds them.

 

A separate but related point that gets me, concerns what's necessitated by these dropped points.  As highlighted, we survived not beating Estonia for 98 by beating Sweden and Austria at home.  In those other tournaments though, aside from the glorious France games, we've had an awful habit of writing off the matches with the big gun.  Usually, the top side does drop points in the campaign, but it's seldom to us, and again the 'free hit' language tends not to help.  I can think of home draws with England and Germany, but usually there's nothing and we accept it.

I think we generally fail to do either of things required to qualify, which are to avoid slip ups, or spring a surprise.

 

 

That is exactly it, and I think is where we lack the mentality. A side that expects to qualify sees these games as games they can and must win to qualify, with 20 minutes to go they wouldn't even consider the possibility that they could protect their point so they don't lose, they'd throw everything at the win. A side like us sees them as games to avoid humiliation and keep us in the tournament for a bit longer. As you say it's different in '6 pointers' against the top 2 where going for the win and losing would give a rival 3 points, but Israel picking up points is irrelevant to us. So risking 1 to get 3 is a no brainer you'd think. But we stand off them, bring off our biggest goal threat, stick on Dykes up front on his own, and bring on Kenny McLean. I really don't understand it.

Unlike a league, in a group there is 1st, 2nd and nowhere.  And if you want to finish 1st or 2nd you have to be playing to win against sides like Israel. If we'd gone for it and lost I honestly wouldn't have cared, I'd have been encouraged that we were at least showing signs of a winning mentality, even if we weren't quite at the right level yet.

[Insert Amusing Pseudonym]

16 minutes ago, Monkey Tennis said:

That 'Diamonds are Forever' post does show things starkly.

It's dead right to say it was worth risking a point for all three last night, because Israel pocketing three points probably wouldn't ultimately matter that much.   The same can't be said of the Austria game where denying them full points had value.  We really need to go all out against the 'weaker' sides though.  

You have to assume that similar analysis goes on in places that matter, but if it does, it genuinely doesn't seem to inform our approach in the games, or the language that surrounds them.

 

A separate but related point that gets me, concerns what's necessitated by these dropped points.  As highlighted, we survived not beating Estonia for 98 by beating Sweden and Austria at home.  In those other tournaments though, aside from the glorious France games, we've had an awful habit of writing off the matches with the big gun.  Usually, the top side does drop points in the campaign, but it's seldom to us, and again the 'free hit' language tends not to help.  I can think of home draws with England and Germany, but usually there's nothing and we accept it.

I think we generally fail to do either of things required to qualify, which are to avoid slip ups, or spring a surprise.

 

We beat Croatia home and away in 2014 qualifiers and they were top seeds.  Dropped points all over the shop elsewhere unfortunately including 6 to the bottom seeds

[Thumper]

1 minute ago, Insert Amusing Pseudonym said:

We beat Croatia home and away in 2014 qualifiers and they were top seeds.  Dropped points all over the shop elsewhere unfortunately including 6 to the bottom seeds

I mean this was 2008: if we hadn't absolutely shagged it in Tblisi (a game where I was so sure we'd f**k it that I bet on Georgia and spent my winnings on forgetting it) then we wouldn't even have needed the final-day result at Hampden that we didn't get.

[Mr Tourette]

Regardless of whether we think we should have won last night, the bookies are seldom giving money away. The odds before the game last night were Israel 15/8, Scotland 7/4 and the draw at 21/10.

For anyone that follows fixed odds betting, these odds are basically the bookies saying “this is going to be a draw”

[Monkey Tennis]

18 minutes ago, Insert Amusing Pseudonym said:

We beat Croatia home and away in 2014 qualifiers and they were top seeds.  Dropped points all over the shop elsewhere unfortunately including 6 to the bottom seeds

Yes, that's right we did.

In that campaign though, we shed so many points to the sides ranked below us, that it wasn't enough.

[DA Baracus]

It's a mentality thing with Scotland and Scottish coaches and players. For years we continually pump out shitebag, negative managers that pollute our game up and down the leagues, who speak of "keeping it tight away and sneaking a goal". In turn they churn out shitebag players who litter our game.

The fear of losing is just so overriding, yet there is fear to change that mindset too, despite it not working for anyone and decades of evidence that back it up.

[Savage Henry]

1 hour ago, Monkey Tennis said:

Tremendous post.

It really does identify the issue and, as you say, indicate why last night's result is so costly.

It also puts paid to the cliche that Scotland play better against good teams. 

[Gordopolis]

 
I had some spare time earlier and was sad enough to look into this in more depth. Was keen to see the last time we beat all the lower seeded sides than us. The group sizes vary from 5 to 7 teams, and obviously our seeding changes meaning we've had anything from 2-4 teams seeded below us. However your point turns out to be completely correct.
The last time we beat the lower seeds home and away in a group was 2002 WC qualifying, but this was a 5 team group and Latvia and San Marino were the 2 teams we managed to beat, so it was hardly a big ask. The group came down to the results between us, Belgium and Croatia - thanks to chucking a 2 goal lead against Belgium we didn't qualify.
The time before that was Euro 96 where we beat Finland, Faroes and San Marino home and away. We managed to qualify above Greece, alongside Russia.
So basically apart from 2002 when we managed to beat Latvia home and away, it's 25 years since we beat all the lower seeded teams in a qualifying group. This is clearly why we do not qualify. We didn't even manage it in France 98 qualifying but crucially beat Austria and Sweden at home to make up for it.
If we'd managed to win these games against lower ranked sides we'd have either qualified automatically or got play-offs for the following tournaments - 2004 (We'd have finished as group winners ahead of Germany had we beaten Faroes and Lithuania!), 2006, 2008 (potentially, would have gone to goal difference or head to head) 2010, 2012 (again, would have been goal difference or head to head) 2014, 2016, and 2018.
These are tournaments we missed out on because we didn't take maximum points in double headers against teams like Lithuania, Macedonia, Faroe Islands and Georgia. That is why last night was so frustrating to me. It wasn't that we didn't win, it was that there was a clear lack of appreciation over how crucial it was to win that game. The last 25 minutes should have been us throwing the kitchen sink at Israel, risking our point to get 3 because we know from the last 20 years that dropped points against lower ranked sides is what has stopped us qualifying. Instead the substitutions and the lack of urgency suggested a point wasn't too bad. History shows us that for us to qualify we need to beat every lower team home and away, and if we do slip up in one of them we have to make up for it by having the upper hand in head to heads with your qualifying rivals. This is obviously easier said than done, but again it is the seeming lacking of awareness over how important it is for us that has frustrated me (over the last few years under Strachan and Levein, not just Clarke) and lots of other fans. For all the debate over our ability to produce players over the last 20 years, it is actually our inability to beat teams that have worse players than us that has cost us, it is a mindset and mentality as much as anything else.
 

Good post. I had been convincing myself that Clarke was the epitome of rational thinking and that he could see that a draw last night was a measured risk that was preferable to losing the game and that his group strategy would see us through in the end. Really though last night was a bungle in terms of qualification, pure and simple. Two points squandered.

[Gordopolis]

We should just name the countries in which it allfell apart.
We all know which ones they were, we remember the abject performances, and we remember the media/team nonsense about “a draw with Lithuania salvaged by McArthur in the final minutes could be an important point at the end of the group.”

Thanks for reminding me about that [emoji30]

[Monkey Tennis]

27 minutes ago, Savage Henry said:

It also puts paid to the cliche that Scotland play better against good teams. 

Don't even start me on that myth.

Absolute pish.