Scottish Parliamentary Elections May 2021

[DAFC.]

26 minutes ago, DeeTillEhDeh said:

I know a lot of people who were SNP-SNP last time round who are also doing SNP-Green this time.

This is the trend I am seeing. In 2016, SNP were still, by quite a considerable distance, the most popular party on the regional list vote, but found themselves with only a handful of MSPs to show for it. I voted SNP/SNP as I was only a naive teenager and assumed that would be a strong backing for an SNP majority, but it doesn't work like that. I believe Indy backers have realised how futile it now is to vote SNP/SNP in majority of regions given what happened in 2016 and the considerable shift in politics in Scotland from 2011 in terms of tactical voting as it has now boiled down to, essentially, if you're for or against independence. I can see Greens doing very well, maybe a bit optimistic to say they'd be parting Labour aside to take 3rd place, but they certainly won't be a million miles away if you listen to what folk in Central Scotland and Glasgow are saying: and that is a strong backing for SNP/Green. That could be the case for across a lot of Scotland where the SNP will almost certainly storm the constituency vote. I guess we'll just have to wait and see but if I could bet money on it, I would be willing to put a decent wager on Greens getting between 12-18 MSPs. 

Edited March 27, 2021 by DAFC.

[Dunning1874]

On 25/03/2021 at 14:39, Suspect Device said:

Is there a site giving an indication of the best tactical vote for each area?

 

 

Edit: I know it's generally SNP/Green but was wondering where that isn't the case.

Just going to quote my own post from the polling thread like a massive VL. Obviously you can't say for sure that constituencies are going to fall the same way, but if they do change hands the SNP are more likely to be gaining seats than losing them, which would put list seats even further away.

On 19/03/2021 at 07:29, Dunning1874 said:

Since this thread has gone that way, putting the 2016 list comparison into (rough) numbers rather than percentages.

Central - 4 Labour & 3 Tory. SNP got over 129K and would have needed another 16K+ to take a seat. Greens got under 13K and needed just under 2K more votes to take the last seat from the Tories.

Glasgow - 3 Labour, 2 Tory, 1 Green. SNP got 111K votes and would have needed another 36K for a seat. Greens got 23K and needed another 6000 to take the last seat from the Tories.

Highlands & Islands - 3 Tory, 2 Labour, 1 Green, 1 SNP

Last seat was a close fight between Tories and Labour which Labour won. SNP would have needed another 10K in addition to their 80K+ votes to be in contention for a second, Greens another 8K in addition to their 14700 - both miles off it

Lothian- 3 Tory, 2 Lab, 2 Green

Labour were the closest challengers to the Greens for the last seat, just over 1K short. SNP's 118K votes had them just over 2K short, but have to remember that was with failing to win three constituencies and if those 2K votes had come from the Greens you'd just be swapping one pro-independence seat for another rather. To take a third seat at the expense of the Tories Greens would have needed another 22K votes.

Mid & Fife - 4 Tory, 2 Lab, 1 Green

Greens took the last seat ahead of Labour who needed over 2K more votes. Lib Dems would have taken one instead of Greens if they hadn't won a constituency. SNP got 120K and would have needed another 40K for a seat. Greens took just over 18K and would have needed another 19K for a second seat.

North East - 4 Tory, 2 Lab, 1 Lib

As previously in the thread, with 15K the Greens were just over 2K short of the last seat which the Tories took, while the SNP were 34K short with 137K votes.

South - 3 SNP, 2 Lab, 2 Tory

SNP got 120K and needed another 14K to make it 4 seats at the expense of the Tories. Greens got 12K and needed another 2K to take it from the Tories. If those 2K votes had come off the SNP total they'd still have been taking 3 as well, but tactical voting here is obviously risky.

West - 3 Lab, 3 Tory, 1 Green

Greens took the last seat with 17K. SNP were 19K short having had 135K votes. Greens would have needed another 18K to take 2 at the expense of the Tories.

 

[Dunning1874]

Ross has sent this letter to Sarwar and Rennie:

[DeeTillEhDeh]

Ross has sent this letter to Sarwar and Rennie:

Sarwar will tell him to do one.

[Ira Gaines]

They'll all be saying "we were going to do that anyways, so f**k off" I'd imagine. Not in those words obviously.

[SANTAN]

I'd imagine he'll get laughed away. 

Isn't in amusing how buzzwords and messaging spreads, seems pretty stupid to me for Ross to embrace this "supermajority" patter unless I'm being uninformed and that's an actual objective term? 

[madwullie]

3 minutes ago, Stormzy said:

I'd imagine he'll get laughed away. 

Isn't in amusing how buzzwords and messaging spreads, seems pretty stupid to me for Ross to embrace this "supermajority" patter unless I'm being uninformed and that's an actual objective term? 

I was just typing a similar post about buzzwords, except focusing on divisive referendum and wondering if that gives sarwar the boak as much as me - like does Ross use chat like that when talking politics with his "mates". 

But of course the letter isn't for srwar, it's for gullible swing voters. But I get he does talk like that IRL anyway the detestable wee p***k 

[renton]

9 minutes ago, Stormzy said:

I'd imagine he'll get laughed away. 

Isn't in amusing how buzzwords and messaging spreads, seems pretty stupid to me for Ross to embrace this "supermajority" patter unless I'm being uninformed and that's an actual objective term? 

It is an actual objective term, although the threshold for what constitutes one varies. Typically anything from 60% upwards.

Edited March 27, 2021 by renton

[SANTAN]

3 minutes ago, madwullie said:

I was just typing a similar post about buzzwords, except focusing on divisive referendum and wondering if that gives sarwar the boak as much as me - like does Ross use chat like that when talking politics with his "mates". 

But of course the letter isn't for srwar, it's for gullible swing voters. But I get he does talk like that IRL anyway the detestable wee p***k 

Aye I agree it's probably more of a trap, publicity move than a sincere thing. 

It reads like it could be a Star Wars movie, 7 years ago we united to defeat Nationalism... and now it has came back bigger than before, faced with a new threat from the Nationalist alliance...

[SANTAN]

2 minutes ago, renton said:

It is an actual objective term, although the threshold for what constitutes one varies. Typically anything from 60% upwards.

That's fair enough then, I still wouldn't think it's wise to repeat Salmonds messaging for him, Bojo can handle batting away a majority but with Tories calling it the big super majority it adds a tiny dash of legitimacy to the argument Boris is going against. 

[John Lambies Doos]

Ross has sent this letter to Sarwar and Rennie:

Omg.
Fake news surely

[renton]

1 minute ago, Stormzy said:

That's fair enough then, I still wouldn't think it's wise to repeat Salmonds messaging for him, Bojo can handle batting away a majority but with Tories calling it the big super majority it adds a tiny dash of legitimacy to the argument Boris is going against. 

To be fair, no one really expects Westminster to respect any democratic mandate they don't like the look of.

Edited March 27, 2021 by renton

[SANTAN]

Just now, renton said:

To be fair, no one really expects Westminster to respect any democratic mandate.

Some clearly do on here. 

I don't think this changes anything for Westminster it just makes it easier to get rid of Ross.

[Scorge]

Supermajority is technically 2/3rds, I'm told.

The Alba media legitimacy strategy element working a blinder already going by that letter. The lino is rattled now he knows what could happen to the bottom end of his list and his numbers in HR.

I really don't fancy being a bookie trying to place the over/under on Alba right now. 

Edited March 27, 2021 by Scorge

[Ira Gaines]

13 minutes ago, John Lambies Doos said:

Omg.
Fake news surely

I don't see why it would be. Tories certainly don't lose anything by doing it, and if, by some off chance, one of them agreed, that party would lose voters.

It's very much a "worth a punt" thing, and I don't see much wrong with it.

[Highland Capital]

4 hours ago, ThatBoyRonaldo said:

Rhiannon can be annoying but she's significantly more of an asset to the party than the vast majority of her detractors.

On topic, one of my pet hates in politics is people who can't understand why parties won't advocate votes for competing political parties. It just comes across as pathetic - "why won't the SNP be friends with me even though I'm standing against them? "

I'm not saying she should be advocating people voting Green, I just find it strange that when she listed the pro-independence parties she left out the second largest.  I have noticed some SNP people trying to de-legitimise the Greens support for independence in the past as apparently it's not their "priority".  I know the SNP are the biggest vehicle for independence by a long way, but I do find their "it's my ball" attitude towards it at times quite irritating.

[Whitburn Vale]

2 minutes ago, Highland Capital said:

I'm not saying she should be advocating people voting Green, I just find it strange that when she listed the pro-independence parties she left out the second largest.  I have noticed some SNP people trying to de-legitimise the Greens support for independence in the past as apparently it's not their "priority".  I know the SNP are the biggest vehicle for independence by a long way, but I do find their "it's my ball" attitude towards it at times quite irritating.

Bang on HC,independence dosnt belong to the SNP alone,they should remember that.......

[sophia]

55 minutes ago, Dunning1874 said:

Ross has sent this letter to Sarwar and Rennie:

Given recent history I should imagine most people would be well served and smart enough to avoid being inveigled into any DRoss strategy.

Even Willie Rennie.

[Highland Capital]

7 minutes ago, Whitburn Vale said:

Bang on HC,independence dosnt belong to the SNP alone,they should remember that.......

In many ways I find the Greens' support for independence more appealing.  They aren't nationalists or patriots, they're usually people with values and beliefs that have pointed them to supporting this cause.  The Greens have reasons which have pushed them towards supporting independence - many in the SNP seem to support independence first and come up with the reasons later.

Edited March 27, 2021 by Highland Capital

[sophia]

Just now, Highland Capital said:

In many ways I find the Greens' support for independence more appealing.  They aren't nationalists, they're usually people with values and beliefs that have pointed them to supporting this cause.  The Greens have reasons which have pushed them towards supporting independence - many in the SNP seem to support independence first and come up with the reasons later.

Well that's a pretty offensive smear and if you're trolling in a good old fashioned lib Dem style, good luck to you