Scottish Parliamentary Elections May 2021

[Dan Steele]

Dean Thomson is connected to Think Scotland and is in the company of these buffoons:

 Tom Gallagher, Jill Stephenson, Alan Sked, Linda Holt, Max Young, Liz Smith, Jon Stanley, Emma Hargan, Alan Grant, Eben Wilson

Edited May 1, 2021 by The Skelpit Lug

[renton]

I'd be surprised if no pollster picked up the kind of vote slippage that dropped the SNP constituency vote enough to take out 10 seats net.

[vikingTON]

It's entirely plausible that an 'SNP insider' wants to talk up the prospect of losing constituency seats because nobody is buying their utter drivel 'both votes SNP' mantra otherwise. 

Edited May 1, 2021 by vikingTON

[DeeTillEhDeh]

I'd be surprised if no pollster picked up the kind of vote slippage that dropped the SNP constituency vote enough to take out 10 seats net.

They seem to be banking on the SNP polls being overstated - but as far as I am aware the pollsters have taken account of that now.

[John Lambies Doos]

.

Pish

[vikingTON]

The one thing I would say about this election is that turnout could be wildly low. I'm certainly not seeing much sign at all of an election campaign being underway on the Clyde Riviera. Some mad independent cyclist clown is currently 3-2 down to the SNP incumbent in the total window poster stakes I've spotted. 

Perhaps greater use of postal voting will balance things out but my sense is that turnout will be lower in this seat at least. The local campaign has been a risible, shit-flinging mess fought out in the Greenock Telegraph every fucking day, with not one of the candidates providing a credible argument. 

[Salt n Vinegar]

Anyone know the story with the number/percentage of postal vote applications this time?  We have never used them before, but all 3 of us here have used one, largely due to Covid. All 3 have now been sent in. 

[renton]

13 minutes ago, virginton said:

The one thing I would say about this election is that turnout could be wildly low. I'm certainly not seeing much sign at all of an election campaign being underway on the Clyde Riviera. Some mad independent cyclist clown is currently 3-2 down to the SNP incumbent in the total window poster stakes I've spotted. 

Perhaps greater use of postal voting will balance things out but my sense is that turnout will be lower in this seat at least. The local campaign has been a risible, shit-flinging mess fought out in the Greenock Telegraph every fucking day, with not one of the candidates providing a credible argument. 

I think I read that postal voting applications was up, but still only something like 20 odd percent.

[DeeTillEhDeh]

The one thing I would say about this election is that turnout could be wildly low. I'm certainly not seeing much sign at all of an election campaign being underway on the Clyde Riviera. Some mad independent cyclist clown is currently 3-2 down to the SNP incumbent in the total window poster stakes I've spotted. 
Perhaps greater use of postal voting will balance things out but my sense is that turnout will be lower in this seat at least. The local campaign has been a risible, shit-flinging mess fought out in the Greenock Telegraph every fucking day, with not one of the candidates providing a credible argument. 

There's been a record number of postal votes recorded in Scotland - almost a quarter of the electorate - 1.01 million votes - not sure if that is a good sign or not?

The campaign has been low profile because there is zero canvassing. A Royal popping their clogs and Johnson dominating the news has not helped either.

I genuinely won't be making any forecast on turnout or results because there's just too many variables at play.

This is possibly the most unpredictable election for some time in Scotland.

[AMMjag]

I'm not seeing much change from 2016 that would suggest too much of a significant shift either way - unionist voters were tactical then, and there's no reason to think that they won't be again to support their marginal seats and list representation; the SNP are still the only available home for voters whose primary interest is independence, and so will sweep up most constituencies regardless.

However the prospect of the SNP losing seats isn't unthinkable at all, with the past five years seeing a leadership that has presided over pointless factions and shambolic political strategy - namely, jumping in bed with the 'Stop Brexit'/'People's Vote' losers and peacocking middle class No voters, at the expense of the SG actually laying any groundwork for a second referendum.

If you can't energise grassroots campaigners with any scraps of a clear and credible path towards independence, that's probably not conducive to getting the swashbuckling majority they apparently need in order to do anything.

Given the rather significant events that have taken place since May 2016, the state of the party just now really isn't acceptable and, if recent polling is reflected next week, I'm leaning more towards a leadership election being a necessity. Whether Sturgeon intends to continue or not, the party needs to have serious conversations with itself - however no doubt they'll Baxter Parp it by blaming it all on Salmond and firing out pointless leader favourability polls like free t-shirts out a cannon.

[vikingTON]

I don't think that a leadership election is the right call, but there does need to be a thorough emptying of the upper ranks to refresh the party for yet another stint in government. Getting rid of the ever-forgetful, Ted Crilly figure overseeing the party accounts would be a major step in the right direction.

A leader worth their salt should be willing to enact that shake-up regardless of whether the SNP get 62 or 68 seats in a few days'  time. It is not a stunning vote of confidence in the terrific job that everyone is doing; it reflects the utter bankruptcy of the bitter Yoon collective opposing them. 

Edited May 2, 2021 by vikingTON

[GordonS]

19 minutes ago, AMMjag said:

I'm not seeing much change from 2016 that would suggest too much of a significant shift either way - unionist voters were tactical then, and there's no reason to think that they won't be again to support their marginal seats and list representation; the SNP are still the only available home for voters whose primary interest is independence, and so will sweep up most constituencies regardless.

However the prospect of the SNP losing seats isn't unthinkable at all, with the past five years seeing a leadership that has presided over pointless factions and shambolic political strategy - namely, jumping in bed with the 'Stop Brexit'/'People's Vote' losers and peacocking middle class No voters, at the expense of the SG actually laying any groundwork for a second referendum.

If you can't energise grassroots campaigners with any scraps of a clear and credible path towards independence, that's probably not conducive to getting the swashbuckling majority they apparently need in order to do anything.

Given the rather significant events that have taken place since May 2016, the state of the party just now really isn't acceptable and, if recent polling is reflected next week, I'm leaning more towards a leadership election being a necessity. Whether Sturgeon intends to continue or not, the party needs to have serious conversations with itself - however no doubt they'll Baxter Parp it by blaming it all on Salmond and firing out pointless leader favourability polls like free t-shirts out a cannon.

Polling suggests you don't exactly have the pulse of Scotland, to put it very mildly.

I think what might be going on here is you can't accept the realities about how difficult it will be to get a legal referendum. You also might not be taking into account the fine line the SNP is forced to walk between "all you talk about is independence" and "you've gone soft on independence." Their real challenge isn't to appeal to those who already support independence. 

As for "jumping in bed with the 'Stop Brexit'/'People's Vote' losers", a majority of people in Scotland supported it and another large slice were sympathetic to it. 

[vikingTON]

25 minutes ago, GordonS said:

Polling suggests you don't exactly have the pulse of Scotland, to put it very mildly.

 

Well no, because polling does not capture the significant number of people who will vote for the SNP with little enthusiasm due to the absence of a credible alternative. The fact that they're not switching to Labour, the Tories or any other Yoon outfit is not a vote of confidence in the current direction of the party. It's a soft vote that can be lost, which was not the case as much in 2011.

Scottish Labour used to have a similarly dominant position in polls, until a sufficiently large number of voters understood that they were useless and an electable alternative was available - at which point their unassailable vote share collapsed like snow off a dyke. That's what happens when you let complacency set in and read politics entirely through the final vote tally. 

Edited May 2, 2021 by vikingTON

[AMMjag]

6 minutes ago, GordonS said:

I think what might be going on here is you can't accept the realities about how difficult it will be to get a legal referendum. You also might not be taking into account the fine line the SNP is forced to walk between "all you talk about is independence" and "you've gone soft on independence." Their real challenge isn't to appeal to those who already support independence.

My criticism is nothing to do with 'getting' a referendum, I said there had been no credible strategy for laying the groundwork for this. This could involve actively exploring the legal outcomes if 'permission' was refused by WM in the eventuality of a simple majority support from MSPs, and adapting a response accordingly. It would also involve credible financial planning for the campaign itself, and a sustained approach towards strengthening the SP's powers.

So far the only contributions the SNP have made on this front have been the near-universally despised Growth Commission, throwing a blanket over their accounts and kicking further devolved powers (namely health/disability benefits) another couple of years into touch. 

I couldn't care less whether I'm in touch with polling on any of that, but I doubt many people are voting SNP with much enthusiasm next week.

Quote

As for "jumping in bed with the 'Stop Brexit'/'People's Vote' losers", a majority of people in Scotland supported it and another large slice were sympathetic to it. 

A majority of people in Scotland voted to Remain in the EU, not to fight the rUK Remainers' battles for them through a nonsense second vote. Boris Johnson was losing key votes on a weekly basis; this cravenness to perception and majority opinion has resulted only in him being allowed out of his barrel to form a majority and pass a worse Brexit deal than the one on offer at the time.

[betting competition]

Here comes the Tory bribe.

 

[TheScarf]

It’ll be both votes Green for this cat.

[LongTimeLurker]

9 hours ago, DeeTillEhDeh said:

There's been a record number of postal votes recorded in Scotland - almost a quarter of the electorate - 1.01 million votes - not sure if that is a good sign or not?

 

If it boosts overall turnout among younger voters it probably helps the SNP.

[DeeTillEhDeh]

I don't think that a leadership election is the right call, but there does need to be a thorough emptying of the upper ranks to refresh the party for yet another stint in government. Getting rid of the ever-forgetful, Ted Crilly figure overseeing the party accounts would be a major step in the right direction.
A leader worth their salt should be willing to enact that shake-up regardless of whether the SNP get 62 or 68 seats in a few days'  time. It is not a stunning vote of confidence in the terrific job that everyone is doing; it reflects the utter bankruptcy of the bitter Yoon collective opposing them. 

Swinney needs to go as well - has made an utter pig's ear of Education - like every other role he's been in.

[Suspect Device]

3 hours ago, betting competition said:

Here comes the Tory bribe.

 

 

Like being offered a pay rise after you've handed your notice in at work.

You should say no thanks.

[Salt n Vinegar]

3 hours ago, betting competition said:

Here comes the Tory bribe.

 

I'm sure that the Treasury will love that. I doubt that the Tory back benchers will be keen either.  The Speaker might have a go at what appears to be a new policy/spending announcement being leaked to a paper instead of the floor of the House... unless, of course it's all wind and piss, just a baseless story placed in a paper shortly before the election to "buy off" the gullible.... 

I can't see the full article as there is a paywall. The Record (I know...) has expressions like "the PM is set to unveil...", "plans could include a spending spree...", "... The Health Secretary is also working on plans...", and "It comes amid fears that nationalists could win a majority in the Scottish Parliament next week...". 

The sad thing is that some folk will believe the Tories, ignoring the simple facts that 1) it's the Tories and 2) in reality, there is nothing there... 

Edited May 2, 2021 by Salt n Vinegar