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John Lambies Doos

Scottish Parliamentary Elections May 2021

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1 hour ago, DAFC. said:

 

Lots of ifs and buts however I still think SNP will get 65+ seats purely from the constituency numbers and the 2 or 3 list members they'll get. 

Constituency polling is only national of course, and it increasingly doesn't apply uniformly. Since 2011 Labour have beaten the odds to hold on to East Lothian and Dumbarton because of personal votes for the incumbents (though Iain Grey's retirement bring East Lothian into play). I think the three opposition parties will keep more of their seats than polls might suggest, especially where the incumbent enjoys a high profile.

All Labour's seats fall to the SNP on a 1.5% swing and six Conservative seats fall on a 2.5% but I just don't see it happening, Alex Cole-Hamilton, on the other hand, I think will go despite being less vulnerable.

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SNP/Green for me Clive. I'm registered to vote in Argyll & Bute so after a quick check it'll be Jenni "The Freshmaker" Minto for the constituency seat. I know Big Sexy Brendan O'Hara is fairly comfortably the Westminster MP so hopefully nice and straightforward for the constituency win there.

The list seats afaik fall under the Highlands and Islands so a little more tricky, think it encompasses the weird little Here Be Dragons enclaves that tend to hoover up Lib Dem votes, happy enough to go green tbh.

 

Edited by Thistle_do_nicely

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1 hour ago, Pato said:

I'm so hipster that my constituency vote is tactical and my region vote is for who I actually want elected.

Tories/Alliance for Unity, is it?

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1 hour ago, SandyCromarty said:

No need to mention what my vote will be.

^^^

Shy Tory imo 

 

Seriously, with them getting approximately 20% it seems obvious to state but quite staggering nonetheless that one in five actually vote Tory

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4 hours ago, Highland Capital said:

I see Ballot Box Scotland has just projected a poll with the SNP on 67 and the Greens going up to 11, with the latter winning a seat in every region and two in Lothian, Glasgow and the Highlands and Islands.  The SNP get a majority with zero list seats.  Looks more and more that voting SNP on the list is at best ineffective and throughout large parts of Scotland, essentially futile. 

Two list tories in the south?

I'm not sure where they get all the constituency and regional blue in the south of Scotland

 

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34 minutes ago, GordonS said:

Constituency polling is only national of course, and it increasingly doesn't apply uniformly. Since 2011 Labour have beaten the odds to hold on to East Lothian and Dumbarton because of personal votes for the incumbents (though Iain Grey's retirement bring East Lothian into play). I think the three opposition parties will keep more of their seats than polls might suggest, especially where the incumbent enjoys a high profile.

All Labour's seats fall to the SNP on a 1.5% swing and six Conservative seats fall on a 2.5% but I just don't see it happening, Alex Cole-Hamilton, on the other hand, I think will go despite being less vulnerable.

Baillie retained her seat last time because the SNP selected a poor candidate based on local nepotism.  She will though have gained recent useful exposure through the Salmond farrago and she will retain the vote of the Faslane 'workforce'.  Having said that, we received a leaflet from her the other night and there was lots of SNP Baaaad content so maybe she's nervous.  A lot of her previous vote is now deid after all.

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Has she just turned 16?
Oh, you.!!!!! She's been resident in Scotland for 26 years but has never applied for citizenship. Only just realised that SG changed voting rules last year.
I think I can say with confidence that she'll be voting SNP.

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The tactical vote ideally is also how I'd vote anyway, which is nice.

Here's to the Greens ending up with double the MSPs of the Lib Dems so I can see the utter despair on Cole-Hamilton's face.

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23 minutes ago, sophia said:

^^^

Shy Tory imo 

 

Seriously, with them getting approximately 20% it seems obvious to state but quite staggering nonetheless that one in five actually vote Tory

Their main areas is the Borders and rural areas such as Perthshire, they did well enough in the North east in the 2019 GE but that was because Boris promised the fishermen and fish processing businesses that he guaranteed that uk fishing grounds would be returned to uk fishermen and no EU boats would be allowed. Sounds familiar?

We all know what happened with that, the uk fishing grounds were sacrificed for the next five years to EU boats during EU exit negotiations., so I doubt the tories will garner as many votes in that area as the did in 2019.

Interestingly Douglas Ross's majority was drastically reduced from a majority of 4159 in 2017 to 513 in 2019,  I know that Laura Mitchell was a formidable SNP opponent in 2019 but given the large military presence in Moray who traditionally in the main vote tory but that is a big majority drop and I can only put it down to the man's personality. 

Edited by SandyCromarty

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SNP/Green for me.
I have voted for every major party (except one) during my voting life which started in the middle of the Thatcher years. But this one seems to be the most important of them all.

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1 hour ago, Thistle_do_nicely said:

 Big Sexy Brendan O'Hara 

 

I remember when he used to wear an Irish tricolour Davy Crocket hat while selling Not The View at the Gallowgate end of Janefield St. How times change.

37 minutes ago, O'Kelly Isley III said:

Baillie retained her seat last time because the SNP selected a poor candidate based on local nepotism.  She will though have gained recent useful exposure through the Salmond farrago and she will retain the vote of the Faslane 'workforce'.  Having said that, we received a leaflet from her the other night and there was lots of SNP Baaaad content so maybe she's nervous.  A lot of her previous vote is now deid after all.

Yeah, she only won by 109 votes last time so she will be fighting like hell. I think she'll hang on because of name recognition, Faslane and tactical yoons, plus she's a tenacious campaigner, but really it's 50-50. 

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In recent times I have voted SNP/Green in the Holyrood elections. I hate being a creature of habit and I don’t find  myself particularly inspired to vote for any of the parties this time. I believe in independence but don’t see a new Indyref on the horizon anytime soon. I’ll no doubt still vote and my choices are pretty limited. Maybe I’ll just shut my eyes, move the pen in a circle, bring it down and whoever it lands on gets the vote 🗳. Democracy in action.

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Residing in Glasgow Southside, my constituency vote will obviously be going to Nicola Sturgeon of the Scottish National party.
My list vote will be going to the Scottish Greens, in support of the main man Patrick Harvie.

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Labour/ Labour for me. 
 
 
 
Only kidding. SNP/ ? I am not sure who to vote for on the list up here in Aberdeen. 
Green.

I'll be SNP Dundee City East and hold my nose and vote Green for NE Scotland list.

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I will be doing as i have done in 2011 and 2016 and that is voting SNP on the constituency vote and Greens on List. As i live in central belt a list vote for the Greens is more beneficial in terms of returning an extra Pro Indy MSP

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If the Edinburgh West Tories actually vote Tory Cole-Hamilton will be out. I suspect they might tactically vote for him as a Yoon though. This has kept Ian Murray in a Westminster seat too.

Cole-Hamilton getting booted out would be glorious though.

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9 hours ago, Boo Khaki said:

I had to hold my nose and vote for Joanna Cherry in 2019. I've moved back to Tommy Sheppard's Westminster constituency, but my MSP is Ash Denham, who has personal views I find as objectionable as Cherry. I'll still vote SNP 1 Green 2 though, because I see Indi as a far more significant issue than semantic squabbles over potential GRA reform, which I think is inevitable in any case. Despite GC people forming noisy echo-chambers on certain sites that tolerate transphobia, they are completely deluding themselves that they are somehow representative of the wider population. They are not, and I think history will judge them the same way that we now view people who considered homosexual men to be a danger to children 30-40 years ago.

This is my constituency too brother.

I won't be voting for Denham, I probably would have voted for Kate Campbell if she had managed to win the selection.

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1 hour ago, Henderson to deliver ..... said:

This is my constituency too brother.

I won't be voting for Denham, I probably would have voted for Kate Campbell if she had managed to win the selection.

Totally understandable choice.

I would completely accept criticism that I'm not being a 'trans ally' by voting for a GC candidate, but then I didn't join the SNP because of their GRA policy, I did so because of the pro-Independence stance. I can't blame anyone who feels differently though. 

I think that if you took this logic to extremes you could find something about every single candidate from every single party that clashes with your own personal view, and thus you'd end up with absolutely nobody to vote for. I'd probably feel different if I wasn't confident that the GC crowd are a minority who are not going to get their own way anyway.

Edited by Boo Khaki

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