Scottish Parliamentary Elections May 2021

[San Starko Rover]

So looking like zero changes in Scotland, SNP majority will be stopped by tactical voting in a system pretty much designed to stop a majority anyway. The Yes side will form an SNP / Green majority again and Westminster will refuse a referendum with “now is not the time” and “once in a generation”.

What will change? Probably see a party like Alba grow to counter the Unionist tactical voting with the Nationalist tactically voting to increase the Indy majority. Then I guess it gets put to the courts and who knows what they’ll come up with. Absolutely insane that the Scottish people can vote in independence supporting parties with a majority and Westminster can just block a referendum, how is that democracy? This isn’t a Union and never has been, we’re nothing more than an English colony.

Perhaps it’s time to use English nationalism against Westminster and Pro Independence MPs to push the Scotland coats England £s might at least see the English voters pushing to get rid of us and a few Unionists up here might realise the English don’t really give a shit about Scotland, Wales or Northern Ireland and just see us as Counties in England / British / UK (all three are interchangeable down south).

[GiGi]

Just now, Donathan said:

Another option for the SNP would be to use a referendum as leverage for a Westminster coalition government if the next GE gives a hung Parliament

The Tories are polling as high or higher now after handing in a dog-ate-my-homework mess Brexit deal and year of throwing public money at themselves and their mates under the guise of a pandemic that killed 120,000 people in this country.

Westminster is going to be Tory for a very long time. There is no chance of a hung parliament.

I'm pretty sure I've been rolled now that I've typed this all out and seen who I'm replying to.

[sparky88]

10 minutes ago, Donathan said:

 

Tories were managing expectations but now the ballot boxes are open, they think they’re on to a winner. 7000 Lib Dem votes last time but this is expected to collapse with a straight transfer over to the Tories allowing them to hold the seat on an increased majority.

Labour win it is then.

[SANTAN]

1 minute ago, Pato said:

Actually the UK government withdrew the funding for overseas trips that is conventionally afforded to devolved administrations recently, so (disgracefully) it will all be done on the party dime.

Ah right that suits me. Batter on with it then I say. I wonder if they'll have to pay for their own projectors? 

[HTG]

1 hour ago, Salt n Vinegar said:

Just heard Cole Hamilton state on the radio, presumably with a straight face, that the SNP and Greens should be prevented from pursuing a major plank of their manifestos because they didn't get over 50% of the vote. 

Something about democracy. 

Well, that's the Tory Government gubbed then. 

Tell the cùnt to form a coalition so his 8.3% can pursue their policies. Oh wait ...

[vikingTON]

1 hour ago, carpetmonster said:

Whether they do or don’t exist, I’m not entirely sure how Salmond - a man with worse approval ratings in Scotland than Johnson - being in Holyrood would have helped any. Let alone the particular ‘arseholes on Twitter’ - Stuart Campbell and Denise Findlay - he’d bring with him. 

I hate to break this to you, but Unionists loathed Alex Salmond in 2007 when the SNP took power, and in 2011 when they won a majority of seats, and all through the independence referendum campaign in which yes climbed from 25% to 45%.

The change in Salmond's popularity has come from the vast majority of the SNP choosing Team Nicola in a tawdry civil war, so how exactly would his election to Parliament change the dynamic on the No side? Alex Salmond getting elected would have been bad news for Team Nicola. It would have little objective consequence to the Yes movement. 

Edited May 8, 2021 by vikingTON

[Donathan]

Salmond getting 2% in his old constituency [emoji23][emoji23]

[DrewDon]

14 minutes ago, Donathan said:

 

Tories were managing expectations but now the ballot boxes are open, they think they’re on to a winner. 7000 Lib Dem votes last time but this is expected to collapse with a straight transfer over to the Tories allowing them to hold the seat on an increased majority.

 

[vikingTON]

1 hour ago, DeeTillEhDeh said:

I'm not arguing for tiptoeing round anyone - but the reality is that you need a wide range of people with you to win any IndytRef2 - treading carefully but still being dynamic in terms of getting an IndyRef2 are not incompatible.

A starting point might be changing the narrative that the SNP are the sole banner carriers for independence.

The SNP have been jumping at shadows for five years in government in case anything they do might annoy the mythical, swithering 'soft No'  voter who just has to be convinced.  And they're making no forward progress because minds have already been made up.

 

[mwellhighland]

What percent of Labour voters do you think support Independence? Or at least are on the fence.

In contrast, I know someone who voted SNP but will vote no in any referendum. SNP were the best of a bad bunch in his eyes

[John Lambies Doos]

I'm all for exciting ideas but are you serious with this?
If Indyref2 is lost you would rather we went back to being 100% run by Boris rather than having most policies set in Holyrood?
And you're doing this because you're worried Scots will eventually stop voting SNP into Holyrood?
Wow.

No not at mate - just a whacky idea. I think that other independence parties need to emerge or we will be at this impasse for the foreseeable. I just wish Labour would jump over, as I strongly believe they will never get power in WM or Holyrood for decades

[jamamafegan]

Kate Forbes [emoji7]

[GordonS]

10 minutes ago, DC92 said:

They're only just starting the count now.

 

FWIW, the validation stage comes before counting, and that's when they do ballot box sampling. If they do a decent sample and the majority is more than about 2%, they'll know the result already.

[SANTAN]

Jo Coburn

[Donathan]

I think it's about a 70:30 split in favour of the union for Labour.

Why would any independence backer still vote Labour? I assumed the remaining Labour vote was a coalition of older folk who are centre-left but have too much emotional tie to the union to vote SNP.

The SNP are very similar economically to Labour but support independence. There is literally zero reason for a yes voter to vote Labour.

[GordonS]

30 minutes ago, jamamafegan said:

This Kevin Hague on BBC Live is a raging wee yoon

FFS. He's nothing but a Yoon Rev Stu with a calculator. 

[ayrmad]

28 minutes ago, dirty dingus said:

Nicola Sturgeon is miles ahead of any other party leader, so where do these middle folk go?

The problem is we have Yes activists like Denise Findlay, Mr Malky,  Neil Mackay ,Wings et al spouting about how they hate her and advocating not to vote for the only feasible party that can deliver Indy. These clowns are the ones that are making things less likely to happen by trying to split the support. Nicola Sturgeon has probably hoovered up a lot of the middle ground but lost the extremists to Alba. She says she will deliver an Indy ref if she doesn't she will be held to account.

 

She's already said and done all this, she's not taken us any closer to independence whilst our issues with drugs, mental health and education have all went backwards. 

Plenty of hard working folk are now getting fed up with her dishing out freebies rather than doing the hard yards to get her votes. 

[Hedgecutter]

2 minutes ago, GordonS said:

FWIW, the validation stage comes before counting, and that's when they do ballot box sampling. If they do a decent sample and the majority is more than about 2%, they'll know the result already.

I'd imagine that would be particularly difficult for Aberdeenshire West as you'd imagine that places like Deeside will have a much higher Tory contingent than areas towards Huntly etc.

[Monkey Tennis]

5 minutes ago, ayrmad said:

Our issues with drugs, mental health and education have all went backwards. 

Evidently, on the last one.

[GordonS]

3 minutes ago, Hedgecutter said:

I'd imagine that would be particularly difficult for Aberdeenshire West as you'd imagine that places like Deeside will have a much higher Tory contingent than areas towards Huntly etc.

The seat hasn't changed boundaries though so it's no more difficult than anywhere else. You just bang in the numbers and compare them with 2016.