Scottish Parliamentary Elections May 2021

[Shannon]

The list vote in Jackie Baillie seat is really telling how many Tory voters gave their votes to her. Tories lending their votes to Labour is now a successful night apparently...[emoji23].

If Scottish Parliament was first past the post system it would be a landslide victory for SNP.

[Double Jack D]

Looks to me that this election has, unsurprisingly, been all about the constitution.

Unionists have be savvy to the tactical vote, nationalists have not.

The list seats per vote for SNP likely to be even lower than the 4 for 953000 in 2016. 

Result = No referendum til after 2026.

Shite!

[Gordon EF]

6 minutes ago, Double Jack D said:

Looks to me that this election has, unsurprisingly, been all about the constitution.

Unionists have be savvy to the tactical vote, nationalists have not.

The list seats per vote for SNP likely to be even lower than the 4 for 953000 in 2016. 

Result = No referendum til after 2026.

Shite!

How can you say nationalists have been less 'savvy' with voting tactically? The way nationalists vote savvy is by voting SNP/Green. Let's see how many pro-indpendence MSPs there are by close of play tomorrow.

[Double Jack D]

14 minutes ago, Gordon EF said:

How can you say nationalists have been less 'savvy' with voting tactically? The way nationalists vote savvy is by voting SNP/Green. Let's see how many pro-indpendence MSPs there are by close of play tomorrow.

If the list votes we're seeing posted on here are near accurate we could be looking at over 1m snp list votes for 2 or 3 seats max. We might see a few extra greens but not many. 

Sorry but an snp minority govt backed by greens won't deliver indyref2 this term, just like they didn't last term.

[The Golden God]

A genuine but probably stupid question. What do Westminster gain from denying Scotland a second referendum? If we were to go ahead and do it "illegaly" and Yes won then what could they do? The entire world would look at them as beyond ridiculous if they were to try and deny the result. Surely a mandate for a referendum is when more people vote for parties that are pro independence than those who are against? Yet the media seem to act like we need one party to get a majority in a system that is built against majorities to even have a sniff at having another vote.

[Lurkst]

7 hours ago, Double Jack D said:

Looks to me that this election has, unsurprisingly, been all about the constitution.

Unionists have be savvy to the tactical vote, nationalists have not.

The list seats per vote for SNP likely to be even lower than the 4 for 953000 in 2016. 

Result = No referendum til after 2026.

Shite!

The SNP are at a disadvantage in that it's clearer how to tactical vote in the constituencies.  There's a bit of swings and roundabouts though, they've lost seats where there's been clear tactical voting but have had some narrow wins where the unionist vote has been spread. 

It seems familiar politicians like Baillie, Carlaw and Cole-Hamilton are more likely to attract a tactical vote.

 

Edited May 8, 2021 by Lurkst

[Granny Danger]

SNP MSPs will vote for IndyRef2, Green MSPs will vote for IndyRef2.  That’s a majority based on a PR voting system.

Johnson and his lackies in the MSM can squeal and protest all they want but if people return a majority of pro-Independence MSPs then that’s a victory for the Independence cause regardless of who is trying to deny it.

 

[Baxter Parp]

I think, no matter what, if there is an independence minded majority in the next parliament, then it will attempt to mount a referendum as soon as the pandemic isn't an issue. As predicted, the MSM & Westminster have been moving goalposts all over the place and implying that an SNP majority is what is required. But I think the next Scottish Government will move forward with a referendum anyway.

 

Also: I told you Alba was a stupid fucking idea.

[sparky88]

2 hours ago, Double Jack D said:

Looks to me that this election has, unsurprisingly, been all about the constitution.

Unionists have be savvy to the tactical vote, nationalists have not.

The list seats per vote for SNP likely to be even lower than the 4 for 953000 in 2016. 

Result = No referendum til after 2026.

Shite!

There's no other FPTP  party in favour of independence so no scope for a Yes tactical vote 

 

2 hours ago, The Golden God said:

A genuine but probably stupid question. What do Westminster gain from denying Scotland a second referendum? If we were to go ahead and do it "illegaly" and Yes won then what could they do? The entire world would look at them as beyond ridiculous if they were to try and deny the result. Surely a mandate for a referendum is when more people vote for parties that are pro independence than those who are against? Yet the media seem to act like we need one party to get a majority in a system that is built against majorities to even have a sniff at having another vote.

Yes would win a second illegal referendum with 99% of the vote, because No voters wouldn't vote in it. It would kill the independence movement stone dead- see Catalonia.

[pawpar]

57 minutes ago, Baxter Parp said:

I think, no matter what, if there is an independence minded majority in the next parliament, then it will attempt to mount a referendum as soon as the pandemic isn't an issue. As predicted, the MSM & Westminster have been moving goalposts all over the place and implying that an SNP majority is what is required. But I think the next Scottish Government will move forward with a referendum anyway.

 

Also: I told you Alba was a stupid fucking idea.

Voting Alba was not a stupid fucking idea. Voting SNP for the list vote in Central Scotland was a monumentally fucking stupid idea. Or as I call them secret tories. There is a reason why unionists win more things under D'Hondt. Lab votes tory or LD when they cannot win. Same for Tories and LD. Whereas SNP thinks it can still win. Absolutely fucking deluded. Asking people to vote SNP 1 and 2 cost them an overall majority. Sturgeon should have said to vote SNP1 and greens 2. Both Labour and tory said vote for any other party. The idiots that run the SNP should have said SNP 1 greens 2. Much as I hate unionists they got their tactics right. The SNP did not.

 

Edited May 8, 2021 by pawpar

[sparky88]

3 minutes ago, pawpar said:

Voting Alba was not a stupid fucking idea. Voting SNP for the list vote in Central Scotland was a monumentally fucking stupid idea. Or as I call them secret tories. There is a reason why unionists win more things under D'Hondt. Lab votes tory or LD when they cannot win. Same for Tories and LD. Whereas SNP thinks it can still win. Absolutely fucking deluded. 

I think they dont push the 'vote for another independence party on the list' line because they know it would alienate the No voters who vote for the SNP - this group is probably way bigger that most independence supporters realise.

 It's why Sturgeon has been very careful to say a vote for the SNP is a vote to seek an indyref, not for Yes or even an indyref itself.

Those same voters have no interest in Alba or the Greens and maybe voted SNP/SNP too.

[Baxter Parp]

17 minutes ago, pawpar said:

Voting Alba was not a stupid fucking idea. 

It fucking was.  The Greens have been pro-independence for years now, Alba has existed since February.  Also: Alex Salmond.  Full stop. A guy I admired the hell out of and now despise because of his egotistical stupidity.

[btb]

1 hour ago, Baxter Parp said:

I think, no matter what, if there is an independence minded majority in the next parliament, then it will attempt to mount a referendum as soon as the pandemic isn't an issue. As predicted, the MSM & Westminster have been moving goalposts all over the place and implying that an SNP majority is what is required. But I think the next Scottish Government will move forward with a referendum anyway.

 

Also: I told you Alba was a stupid fucking idea.

So it's looking like another SNP/Green alliance, I think if Johnson had the balls and the nous he'd go for a second IndyRef ASAP refusing one will be counterproductive and even though folks get more conservative as they get older and maybe less likely to vote Yes I think the demographics favour Yes the longer it is deferred.

I think AS/Alba are a busted flush now which "sleepy cuddles" aside is a bit of a shame as I think the theory was sound - still optimistic about a referendum within the nest Holyrood parliamentary term as I sense commitment to the Union is less secure down South than before the 14/16 referendums -and  remember Johnson is the man who said "There will be no border down the Irish Sea… over my dead body".

[Baxter Parp]

6 minutes ago, btb said:

So it's looking like another SNP/Green alliance,

There hasn't been one yet.

6 minutes ago, btb said:

I think if Johnson had the balls and the nous he'd go for a second IndyRef ASAP

But he hasn't any balls and his previous actions show he will never do anything until he really fucking has to.  Johnson wants to do absolutely fucking nothing at all.

[btb]

3 minutes ago, Baxter Parp said:

There hasn't been one yet.

Technical/Schmecnical, they hang together more often than not.

[Baxter Parp]

3 minutes ago, btb said:

Technical/Schmecnical, they hang together more often than not.

Sure but there's a quid pro quo. It's not like Harvie is the transport minister.  There's a difference.

[glasgow-sheep]

Ok I've prorated all the parties votes for 9 seats and my initial inclination to ignore the SNP on the list looks to have been correct.

Looks like a disappointing result for the greens. There vote is up every where but mostly by less than 2% and they will be nowhere near the 10% they were polling nationally. Glasgow Kelvin and Cathcart still to come and they will both have strong green votes but probably not enough to let them grab a second seat.
Probably grab am extra seat here and there but not many

[BigDoddyKane]

what time today are they expecting the final results to be known?

[Colkitto]

Whether the SNP manage to get a majority or not won't make a difference to the legislation that will pass in Holyrood (assuming the Greens get enough seats for a majority of pro-independence MSP's with the SNP)

The same legislation will pass whether the SNP have 66 seats or 63 seats. The SNP majority was to replicate the same conditions as the 2014 referendum.

If it goes to the Supreme Court, a majority SNP Gov would state it was legal then in 2014 why would it be illegal now with the same conditions? 

Should the SNP go to the Supreme Court depending on the Greens vote to pass legislation then the same conditions won't be met , albeit the same legislation will be passed.

How that plays out I'm not sure....  

[ayrmad]

Anyone that thinks Alba was a stupid idea is an imbecile, leaving aside those involved in Alba, having 80 or 90 Pro Indy seats would have made a mockery of our current set up, that's probably the best way of winning over the large chunk of soft NO's in Scotland. 

70 to 59 or similar still looks close enough for most folk to swallow the Unionist bullshit.