Scottish Parliamentary Elections May 2021

[wirez]

1 minute ago, GordonS said:

I really have no idea what you're talking about.

Step 1 - ask for a section 30 order.

If they say no, step 2 - pass the legislation in the Scottish Parliament and fight the inevitable challenge in the Supreme Court.

If that fails, there's no magic step 3. All that's left is the kind of activism we had to go through in the 90s until we got devolution.

There are people who want to go for civil disobedience or UDI if/ when steps 1 and 2 fail. Those things will make everything worse and not have any success.

There are no magic answers.

Glad you have it all worked out.

I never heard Nicola or Patrick spelling that out in their many TV appearances or pamphlets through the door.

 

[Adamski]

4 minutes ago, DeeTillEhDeh said:

6 minutes ago, Scary Bear said:

It’s a concern. The number of people who do this election after election with the same results is a mild annoyance. It’s almost like a large section of the electorate are not particularly politically engaged and just do the same thing at every election.

Even after 22 years it never ceases to amaze the number of people who don't understand the list vote.

I think people have to be at least moderately engaged in Scottish politics to 'get' the list vote completely. I've tried explaining it to (otherwise clued up) people over the past few days, and the bit where you introduce the concept of dividing the SNP vote by 8 or whatever is when their eyes glaze over. I'm not surprised that lots of people end up voting SNP/SNP thinking it's the best way to bring about independence.

[topcat(The most tip top)]

It’s a concern. The number of people who do this election after election with the same results is a mild annoyance. It’s almost like a large section of the electorate are not particularly politically engaged and just do the same thing at every election.

Having voted Labour(Edinburgh Central), SNP (Lothians) in 2007 only for a landslide to render both votes meaningless i remain sceptical about the merits of double guessing the tactical impact of your vote

[GordonS]

53 minutes ago, Burning Barns said:

I wonder what the plan will be when the request for a Section 30 is, inevitably, denied once again?

If you sprinkle unicorn tears onto Alex Salmond's knob, a referendum will magically appear.

Or, in other words, in the scenario you envisage it will be tough shit all round. At that point we go back to the activism of the 80s and 90s, grinding away to grow support until there's a more favourable wind.

You can't always get what you want.

[Burning Barns]

4 minutes ago, Adamski said:

'Both Votes SNP' was front and centre in their campaign. There was no need for that. Actively encouraging votes for other parties would of course have drawn accusations of gaming the system, but I do wonder if just keeping fairly quiet about the list might have resulted in more pro-indy MSPs.

The fact that it actually facilities the re-election of unionists, makes the promotion of it utterly shameful.  

[Scary Bear]

6 minutes ago, GordonS said:

I really have no idea what you're talking about.

Step 1 - ask for a section 30 order.

If they say no, step 2 - pass the legislation in the Scottish Parliament and fight the inevitable challenge in the Supreme Court.

If that fails, there's no magic step 3. All that's left is the kind of activism we had to go through in the 90s until we got devolution.

There are people who want to go for civil disobedience or UDI if/ when steps 1 and 2 fail. Those things will make everything worse and not have any success.

There are no magic answers.

How many different ways can they say no? Probably a few more but it’s still no. Aye, so get on with that then! Keep going until there is no democratic route to a second referendum and push comes to shove. Nicola Sturgeon (currently) is all talk and no action. 

Edited May 7, 2021 by Scary Bear

[GordonS]

2 minutes ago, wirez said:

Glad you have it all worked out.

I never heard Nicola or Patrick spelling that out in their many TV appearances or pamphlets through the door.

 

They obviously can't express it in terms like that, but it's very obvious that this is exactly what they've been saying.

They're not going to talk about what happens if we lose in the Supreme Court because politics demands that they must act as they they're certain they're going to win.

[Scary Bear]

2 minutes ago, topcat(The most tip top) said:

 

Having voted Labour(Edinburgh Central), SNP (Lothians) in 2007 only for a landslide to render both votes meaningless i remain sceptical about the merits of double guessing the tactical impact of your vote

 

 I think I voted the same that 2007 election. I was staying in Abbeyhill at the time. Not sure if that’s Central or East.

[GordonS]

1 minute ago, Scary Bear said:

How many different ways can they say no? Probably a few more but it’s still no. Aye, so get on with that then! Keep going until there is no democratic route to a second referendum and push comes to shove. Nicola Sturgeon (currently) is all talk and no action. 

I can't think if a better way of proving my point than what you just wrote.

Yes. If we lose in the Supreme Court we're fucked. And in the short to medium term there's absolutely nothing any of us can do about it.

This all reminds me of the joke about the guy learning to be a railway signalman.

 

Gary wants a job as a signalman on the railways. He is told to meet the inspector at the signal box. 

The inspector puts this question to him: "What would you do if you realized that two trains were heading for each other on the same track?" 

Gary says, "I would switch the points for one of the trains." 

"What if the lever broke?" asked the inspector. 

"Then I'd dash down out of the signal box," said Gary, "and I'd use the manual lever over there." 

"What if that had been struck by lightning?" 

"Then," Gary continues, "I'd run back into the signal box and phone the next signal box." 

"What if the phone was engaged?" 

"Well in that case," persevered Gary, "I'd rush down out of the box and use the public emergency phone at the level crossing up there." 

"What if that was vandalized?" 

"Oh well, then I'd run into town and get my uncle Bill." 

This puzzles the inspector, so he asks, "Why would you do that?" 

"Because he's never seen a train crash."

[Scary Bear]

Just now, GordonS said:

I can't think if a better way of proving my point than what you just wrote.

Yes. If we lose in the Supreme Court we're fucked. And in the short to medium term there's absolutely nothing any of us can do about it.

This all reminds me of the joke about the guy learning to be a railway signalman.

 

Gary wants a job as a signalman on the railways. He is told to meet the inspector at the signal box. 

The inspector puts this question to him: "What would you do if you realized that two trains were heading for each other on the same track?" 

Gary says, "I would switch the points for one of the trains." 

"What if the lever broke?" asked the inspector. 

"Then I'd dash down out of the signal box," said Gary, "and I'd use the manual lever over there." 

"What if that had been struck by lightning?" 

"Then," Gary continues, "I'd run back into the signal box and phone the next signal box." 

"What if the phone was engaged?" 

"Well in that case," persevered Gary, "I'd rush down out of the box and use the public emergency phone at the level crossing up there." 

"What if that was vandalized?" 

"Oh well, then I'd run into town and get my uncle Bill." 

This puzzles the inspector, so he asks, "Why would you do that?" 

"Because he's never seen a train crash."

All you can do is take it as far as you can. Keep progressing your case. If we go to the Supreme Court and they decide that the people of a country can’t decide to leave a union, then that would be a time to take stock of that decision and see where we go from there. At least we would have a decision. We would know we’re trapped and can never get out unless the Tories let us. Let’s see how that plays out.

[wirez]

4 minutes ago, GordonS said:

They obviously can't express it in terms like that, but it's very obvious that this is exactly what they've been saying.

They're not going to talk about what happens if we lose in the Supreme Court because politics demands that they must act as they they're certain they're going to win.

Oh so you have seen behind the curtain.

That is also from the Wizard of Oz. You brought up the clicking heels wishes. I thought you might have known it's origins.

[101]

3 minutes ago, GordonS said:

If we lose in the Supreme Court we're fucked. And in the short to medium term there's absolutely nothing any of us can do about it.

Depends what the public opinion is to that result.

It's really not a good look for the UK government to be denying a parliament their democratic decision via the courts.

[sfha]

8 minutes ago, Adamski said:

I think people have to be at least moderately engaged in Scottish politics

I've tried explaining it [...] their eyes glaze over.

My eyes tend to glaze over whenever any election comes round

 

[Saltire]

Updated List MSPs for Glasgow based on the 5 Glasgow results on Ballot Box Scotland

[GordonS]

4 minutes ago, 101 said:

Depends what the public opinion is to that result.

It's really not a good look for the UK government to be denying a parliament their democratic decision via the courts.

You think English Tories would care if the Supreme Court said the referendum would be illegal? It's not a good look to throw contracts worth hundreds of millions at your mates to supply dodgy PPE even though they have literally no experience in supplying PPE, but they seem fine with that. 

The only point at which public opinion in England would matter would be if there was a legal referendum and Yes won. They wouldn't accept Johnson ignoring it - though legally, he could.

[101]

Just now, GordonS said:

You think English Tories would care if the Supreme Court said the referendum would be illegal? It's not a good look to throw contracts worth hundreds of millions at your mates to supply dodgy PPE even though they have literally no experience in supplying PPE, but they seem fine with that. 

The only point at which public opinion in England would matter would be if there was a legal referendum and Yes won. They wouldn't accept Johnson ignoring it - though legally, he could.

I meant in Scotland and tbh I'm surprised there hasn't been more Tories down south pushing Boris to get rid of us

[GordonS]

1 minute ago, Saltire said:

Updated List MSPs for Glasgow based on the 5 Glasgow results on Ballot Box Scotland

Why are you dividing the SNP by 10? It should be divided by 6.

[wirez]

10 minutes ago, Scary Bear said:

All you can do is take it as far as you can. Keep progressing your case. If we go to the Supreme Court and they decide that the people of a country can’t decide to leave a union, then that would be a time to take stock of that decision and see where we go from there. At least we would have a decision. We would know we’re trapped and can never get out unless the Tories let us. Let’s see how that plays out.

Clearly a wish list of what he hopes might happen. Nothing guaranteed in writing or statements.

All in all, a load of fucking rubbish.

[sparky88]

13 minutes ago, Scary Bear said:

All you can do is take it as far as you can. Keep progressing your case. If we go to the Supreme Court and they decide that the people of a country can’t decide to leave a union, then that would be a time to take stock of that decision and see where we go from there. At least we would have a decision. We would know we’re trapped and can never get out unless the Tories let us. Let’s see how that plays out.

Nicola has only asked once formally, about 3 years after the last referendum. She is all talk. 

[GordonS]

1 minute ago, 101 said:

I meant in Scotland and tbh I'm surprised there hasn't been more Tories down south pushing Boris to get rid of us

The 20% or so that vote Tory would love to Johnson tell the Scottish Parliament to f**k off. About half of them believe the Scottish Parliament should be abolished. They're not  exactly Athenian democrats.

The smartest move Johnson could make over independence would be to be very forceful in refusing a referendum. It would please his supporters both sides of the border and it would goad the fundamentalists into self-harming stuff like direct action, vandalism and trying to topple Sturgeon.