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Scottish Parliamentary Elections May 2021


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1 minute ago, Henderson to deliver ..... said:

Donathan was the real star of today.

Don't know if he's done enough for one of the big briefs like Finance or Education, but a shoe in for something like Transport imo.

Donathan would do a better job than Swinney imo.......and that's as an SNP voter. 

But really someone like big Gus needs that brief. Loads of experience, articulate and can present ideas well. 

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I had tuned in to BBC news when I heard about the 25 votes etc in Dumbarton, but I spotted a Tory Blue rosette guy with smiles behind his mask and a thumbs up as he passed through, so it came as no surprise that he would be celebrating a  Tory supporting Baillie win. Maybe STV were correct to go off air. Looks like a 64 +Greens  majority.  Hope all this is tidied up before I screen the Airdrie game at 3 tomorrow.

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As a wee aside, how many of you have been doorstepped by a candidate in this or any other election? I have never once had the opportunity to tell a Tory to get to f**k off my property and feel I am missing out

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If and it is a big if, the SNP were to hold Edinburgh Pentlands and Perth & Kinross South and win Aberdeen West then we they could still sneak 65 seats.
I still think they will pick up at least 3 seats on list 91 in Highlands and 2 in South of Scotland).
The trouble is with the tactical Unionist voting i suspect that will be too much. A few weeks ago i predicted on the gambling & prediction thread that the final outcome would be

SNP 64, Greens 7, ALBA 1, Labour 24 , Tories 28 , LD's 5 and that  the SNP would get around 47.8% of constituency vote and around 38.9 % on List.

I think that is going to be very close to final outcome although ALBA will not get a single seat by looks of things.

Let's be honest back in March when the FM 's position looked precarious we would have taken a result that returned 70 plus Pro Indy MSP's and it is a fantastic result which means that at some point in next couple of years we can turn pressure up for Indy 2. When i say turn pressure up i mean it and i think Indy voters must be prepared to become much more pro active even if it means marching in the hundreds of thousands in London and keeping up pressure constantly.




Would be a surprise if the SNP get 2 in the list in south. They got 3 last time but are + 2 on constituencies. So they’ll lost 2 of those list seats just as a pure cancelling out of the constituency vote.
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Wouldn't there be a chance of SNP picking up a list seat in Mid Scotland & Fife if they lost Perth & Kinross South.

Last time they held 8 of 9 constituency seats but this time they might only hold 7 if they lose Perth & Kinross South.

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Situation will probably be the same as it was last week. SNP biggest party, with Greens making it an independence majority.

Johnson will look at that result and shrug. Nothing much will have changed.

Over to you First Minister.....

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11 minutes ago, Paco said:


They need to maintain one list MSP from Highlands and Islands, which should be no issue, and one from South Scotland - they got three last time but have picked up East Lothian and Ayr in the constituency. Again shouldn’t be an issue.

Aberdeenshire West is the only half chance I’d say. 900 majority but the Lib Dems picked up over 7500 votes last time. Patterns suggest a chunk of those will go Tory.

Galloway & West Dumfries is a fairly strong Tory area, a reasonable majority and Emma Harper was suggesting a hard border post-independence. I can’t see her coming close.

The only other tiny chance is a second list MSP in South Scotland. Almost no chance there either though I suspect.

Always a chance that another one of the seats gets flipped as well. Absolute best case for the SNP looks like 65, worst case 60 or so.

What are the chances of a list seat in the North East if the Lib Dems have absolutely collapsed?

When there was a majority in 2011 the SNP managed a list seat despite winning all the constituencies.

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6 hours ago, Pato said:

I quite like John Curtice but he has a slightly annoying way of writing hedgy-betty text.

JOHN CURTICE'S WIFE: John would you like a cup of tea?

JOHN CURTICE: While at this stage of proceedings yesterday I did indeed want a cup of tea, I had not had a glass of water, as I have done today. This may be a factor which could delay, or possibly even completely eliminate, the expected cup of tea drinking. However it is also the case that I enjoy the taste of tea, so one must not rule out the possibility that despite not needing one to satisfy my thirst, I may still have the cup of tea. At this point it remains too early to draw firm conclusions from incoming data streams.

 

This was the post of the day btw. Still in stitches at it.

 

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1 hour ago, Saltire said:

It's pretty clear that Tories will lend their vote to Labour but Labour voters are much less liklley to lend to the Tories. That's where the Indy majority needs to be found, the Labour vote, as we aready knew.

There's no meat left on that carcass and hasn't been for the last 6/7 years. 

I'd rather gouge my own eyes out than vote for such a thing, but the day a centre right pro-independence party started eating into the remaining yoon tactical bloc is the day you can stick a fork in the Union. All the more reason to hound the Fergus Ewings of the world out the SNP. 

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Tory vote down a good bit on the list in Edinburgh.

Edinburgh Central (Lothian) List Vote:

SNP ~ 12476 (29.9%, +3.6)
Con ~ 9766 (23.4%, -5.7)
Green ~ 7604 (18.2%, +1.2)
Lab ~ 6866 (16.4%, -0.8)
LD ~ 3075 (7.4%, +1.4)
Alba ~ 639 (1.5%, +1.5)
AFU ~ 279 (0.7%, +0.7)
Others ~ 1071 (2.6%, -1.9)

#SP21 #BBS21 https://t.co/DLzMqkJDW6 https://t.co/a1RwVQXqZ2


Edinburgh Southern (Lothian) List Vote:

Labour ~ 11128 (24.5%, +2.6)
SNP ~ 11053 (24.3%, +1.1)
Con ~ 9357 (20.6%, -8.6)
Grn ~ 8605 (18.9%, +2.1)
LD ~ 3373 (7.4%, +2.3)
Alba ~ 611 (1.3%, +1.3)
AFU ~ 250 (0.6%, +0.6)
Others ~ 1050 (2.3%, -1.4)
#SP21 #BBS21 https://t.co/DLzMqkJDW6 https://t.co/G2PtUkOPoF

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1 minute ago, Bairnardo said:

As a wee aside, how many of you have been doorstepped by a candidate in this or any other election? I have never once had the opportunity to tell a Tory to get to f**k off my property and feel I am missing out

If the folk are brave enough and willing to go chapping folks doors they deserve at least a polite response of "no thanks" and close the door.

Having a go at canvassers is shite behaviour.

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6 minutes ago, Donathan said:

Would be a surprise if the SNP get 2 in the list in south. They got 3 last time but are + 2 on constituencies. So they’ll lost 2 of those list seats just as a pure cancelling out of the constituency vote.

 

 

That's not how it works. They'll certainly lose 1 list seat but the other one will depend on all the list vote shares and can't be called at the moment.

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Just now, wirez said:

If the folk are brave enough and willing to go chapping folks doors they deserve at least a polite response of "no thanks" and close the door.

Having a go at canvassers is shite behaviour.

Just said i'd never did it, but if a Tory candidate chaps my door and tries to convince me to do the most deplorable thing possible in the context of voting in a Scottish or UK election (vote Tory) I should be civil to them?

Na.

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3 minutes ago, wirez said:

If the folk are brave enough and willing to go chapping folks doors they deserve at least a polite response of "no thanks" and close the door.

Having a go at canvassers is shite behaviour.

If someone turns up at my house trying to get me to vote for ACH, they deserve far, far worse than being told to go f**k themselves.

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