Scottish Parliamentary Elections May 2021

[DeeTillEhDeh]

Yes twitter seemingly seething at the voters of Dumbarton for having the audacity to reject a shite SNP candidate. Seen people referring to a place that voted overwhelmingly for yes in 2014 calling Dumbarton residents ‘traitors’ etc. Thats hardly going to win anyone over is it? 
If you look at it, Dumbarton and Clydebank, overwhelming for yes in 2014, snp MP since Doyle got punted, The voters didnt fail the SNP there, the SNP failed to inspire the voters.

A few arseholes on Twitter are not representative of the wider independence movement.

[Salt n Vinegar]

1 minute ago, Donathan said:

 

 

Sorry heading out on a pub crawl around Southend at 12pm.... but one nugget for you. Hearing Aberdeenshire West looking good for the SNP, and that probably means majority

 

 

Away and lie in yer ain pish. 

(Keats) 

[DeeTillEhDeh]

The Yes side has gamed the system by having some SNP voters use the Greens as a disguised alter ego party on the list to turn 48% or so into a solid majority that likely ensures near permanent SNP control of Holyrood governance. That is something Donald Dewar and co thought they had prevented as a possibility by implementing the d'Hondt system. Labour-Lib Dem was expected to be the permanent axis of power instead.
If the three Unionist parties had selected a unified slate on the constituencies then stood seperately on the list to game the system in a similar sort of way we would be staring down the barrel of Douglas Ross as first minister pushing Sewell motion after Sewell motion. The Yes side gaming the system further with Alba actually taking a significant number of seats this time around would probably have prompted that response next time around from the No side.

You wouldn't - the SNP would hoover up the list seats instead - and they would still take constituencies where they polled over 50%.

[Ludo*1]

 

And so, as expected, the media narrative continues to shift.

[coprolite]

2 minutes ago, Donathan said:

 

 

 a pub crawl around Southend 

 

 

That sounds bleak

[carpetmonster]

9 minutes ago, virginton said:

That's just unsubstantiated drivel tbh. 

Would be *thrilled* to have Stuart Campbell checking the contents of his pants at the pub khazi type post. 

[NotThePars]

8 hours ago, The Golden God said:

A genuine but probably stupid question. What do Westminster gain from denying Scotland a second referendum? If we were to go ahead and do it "illegaly" and Yes won then what could they do? The entire world would look at them as beyond ridiculous if they were to try and deny the result. Surely a mandate for a referendum is when more people vote for parties that are pro independence than those who are against? Yet the media seem to act like we need one party to get a majority in a system that is built against majorities to even have a sniff at having another vote.

Catalonia, and I think even Venetia, have held some sort of referendum that's been largely dinghied because it wasn't viewed as wholly legitimate. 

1 hour ago, Granny Danger said:

 

After 14 years in government the percentage share is up and we’re winning seats from other parties.  No serious political commentator can spin that as a failure.

 

Good thing we live on Normal Island then where being a serious political commentator is actively frowned upon!

13 hours ago, Bairnardo said:

As a wee aside, how many of you have been doorstepped by a candidate in this or any other election? I have never once had the opportunity to tell a Tory to get to f**k off my property and feel I am missing out

I've been doorstepped by Bob Doris in 2019 and ended up having a long chat with him until he ended up trying to invite us to join the party haha. I didn't. Maybe one day.

[vikingTON]

5 minutes ago, DeeTillEhDeh said:

13 minutes ago, Inanimate Carbon Rod said:

 

A few arseholes on Twitter are not representative of the wider independence movement.

 

1 minute ago, carpetmonster said:

Would be *thrilled* to have Stuart Campbell checking the contents of his pants at the pub khazi type post. 

Interesting to see that the 'arseholes on Twitter being representative' can be switched on and off again based on which party they represent.

Leaving that aside, I'd be interested to see hard evidence for the existence of this  'soft No voter' bloc, that the entire independence movement of Scotland is supposed to tiptoe around constantly for fear of them choosing Boris fucking Johnson, Priti Patel and the gang instead. Who are these people, what evidence is there that they can be genuinely flipped and aren't just a new version of the age-old, attention-seeking 'floating voter' angle? 

[LongTimeLurker]

18 minutes ago, DeeTillEhDeh said:

26 minutes ago, LongTimeLurker said:

The Yes side has gamed the system by having some SNP voters use the Greens as a disguised alter ego party on the list to turn 48% or so into a solid majority that likely ensures near permanent SNP control of Holyrood governance. That is something Donald Dewar and co thought they had prevented as a possibility by implementing the d'Hondt system. Labour-Lib Dem was expected to be the permanent axis of power instead.
If the three Unionist parties had selected a unified slate on the constituencies then stood seperately on the list to game the system in a similar sort of way we would be staring down the barrel of Douglas Ross as first minister pushing Sewell motion after Sewell motion. The Yes side gaming the system further with Alba actually taking a significant number of seats this time around would probably have prompted that response next time around from the No side.

You wouldn't - the SNP would hoover up the list seats instead - and they would still take constituencies where they polled over 50%.

In the scenario I describe SNP constituency seats would form part of the d'Hondt calculation on the lists but the Unionist side ones with a joint slate would not as they would be using Con, Lab and LibDem as seperate Alba style alter egos. That would game the system towards a Unionist majority given the constituency vote share on the current numbers would be Unionist 51% SNP 48%.

Edited May 8, 2021 by LongTimeLurker

[carpetmonster]

2 minutes ago, virginton said:

 

Interesting to see that the 'arseholes on Twitter being representative' can be switched on and off again based on which party they represent.

Leaving that aside, I'd be interested to see hard evidence for the existence of this  'soft No voter' bloc, that the entire independence movement of Scotland is supposed to tiptoe around constantly for fear of them choosing Boris fucking Johnson, Priti Patel and the gang instead. Who are these people, what evidence is there that they can be genuinely flipped and aren't just a new version of the age-old, attention-seeking 'floating voter' angle? 

Whether they do or don’t exist, I’m not entirely sure how Salmond - a man with worse approval ratings in Scotland than Johnson - being in Holyrood would have helped any. Let alone the particular ‘arseholes on Twitter’ - Stuart Campbell and Denise Findlay - he’d bring with him. 

[DeeTillEhDeh]

Interesting to see that the 'arseholes on Twitter being representative' can be switched on and off again based on which party they represent.
Leaving that aside, I'd be interested to see hard evidence for the existence of this  'soft No voter' bloc, that the entire independence movement of Scotland is supposed to tiptoe around constantly for fear of them choosing Boris fucking Johnson, Priti Patel and the gang instead. Who are these people, what evidence is there that they can be genuinely flipped and aren't just a new version of the age-old, attention-seeking 'floating voter' angle? 

I'm not arguing for tiptoeing round anyone - but the reality is that you need a wide range of people with you to win any IndytRef2 - treading carefully but still being dynamic in terms of getting an IndyRef2 are not incompatible.

A starting point might be changing the narrative that the SNP are the sole banner carriers for independence.

[Ludo*1]

SNP hold Aberdeenshire East.

[MP_MFC]

SNP hold Aberdeenshire East.

Massive swing of voters from Lib Dems to Tory which makes grim reading for any potential Aberdeenshire West chances.

What really is the fucking point in the Lib Dems?

[Scary Bear]

55 minutes ago, renton said:

Tbf, disembarking a ship before or during scuttling would be preferable to waiting until it was on the sea floor.

What if you’re the Captain?

Has Salmond been seen today? Does he have a ship?

Edited May 8, 2021 by Scary Bear

[Scary Bear]

1 minute ago, MP_MFC said:

Massive swing of voters from Lib Dems to Tory which makes grim reading for any potential Aberdeenshire West chances.

What really is the fucking point in the Lib Dems?

The cuddly party for confused middle class yoons?

[renton]

2 minutes ago, Scary Bear said:

What if you’re the Captain?

Has Salmond been seen today? Does he have a ship?

I dont think you get to disembark 

[Scary Bear]

17 minutes ago, virginton said:

 

Interesting to see that the 'arseholes on Twitter being representative' can be switched on and off again based on which party they represent.

Leaving that aside, I'd be interested to see hard evidence for the existence of this  'soft No voter' bloc, that the entire independence movement of Scotland is supposed to tiptoe around constantly for fear of them choosing Boris fucking Johnson, Priti Patel and the gang instead. Who are these people, what evidence is there that they can be genuinely flipped and aren't just a new version of the age-old, attention-seeking 'floating voter' angle? 

Even if these soft No voters exist, they are exactly the types who will be hard No voters again as soon as Project Fear 2 kicks in. They can’t be relied upon. Only time will bring the change in demographics to get a majority Yes.

[sparky88]

38 minutes ago, Inanimate Carbon Rod said:

Yes twitter seemingly seething at the voters of Dumbarton for having the audacity to reject a shite SNP candidate. Seen people referring to a place that voted overwhelmingly for yes in 2014 calling Dumbarton residents ‘traitors’ etc. Thats hardly going to win anyone over is it? 
If you look at it, Dumbarton and Clydebank, overwhelming for yes in 2014, snp MP since Doyle got punted, The voters didnt fail the SNP there, the SNP failed to inspire the voters.

James Dornan's tears and snotters last night on Twitter was quite something to behold. All the more so given how well the SNP have actually done. 

[K.T]

Any word on when the Aberdeenshire west result is due?

[Granny Danger]

1 minute ago, Scary Bear said:

Even if these soft No voters exist, they are exactly the types who will be hard No voters again as soon as Project Fear 2 kicks in. They can’t be relied upon. Only time will bring the change in demographics to get a majority Yes.

Not sure.  Remember what the YES vote was at the start on IndyRef1 then remember what the actual result was.  Project Fear certainly had an impact but throughout the campaign the vote really only moved in the one direction.