Scottish Parliamentary Elections May 2021

[DC92]

31 minutes ago, Saltire said:

Good spot Gordie, it looks like the SNP picks up at round 6!!!!! Sorry It's late and I'm rushing.

 

26 minutes ago, GordonS said:

Yeah, that's pretty extraordinary if the SNP could pick up a list seat in Glasgow. It might bring the majority back into sight. 

You were right the first time. What you're projecting here is the theoretical MSP count if there were 5 constituencies and 7 list seats, in which case SNP would be entitled to 6/12 (50% of MSPs). In reality there are 16 seats, and the SNP will already have 9/16 (56%). There is no danger 44/45% list vote bumps that number up - you need well over 50%.

Edited May 7, 2021 by DC92

[GordonS]

8 minutes ago, Saltire said:

The Central Scotland numbers looks like on results to date the SNP picks up 2 additional members from the list!!!!!

Both votes SNP might actually be working if the SNP gets above 45% on the list.

Ah hang on hang on. The party shares are likely to stay broadly the same as the votes come in from the other 4 constituencies. But the SNP's divisor will rise, almost certainly to 10. You were right in the first place, just ignore me!

[GordonS]

2 minutes ago, DC92 said:

 

You were right the first time. What you're projecting here is the theoretical MSP count if there were 5 constituencies and 7 list seats, in which case SNP would be entitled to 6/12 (50% of MSPs). In reality there are 16 seats, and the SNP will already have 9/16 (56%). There is no danger 44/45% list vote bumps that number up - you need well over 50%.

Aye, that penny dropped just before you replied.

Time for bed I think.

[Saltire]

4 minutes ago, eez-eh said:

Again - you’re only dividing the SNP vote by 6 here but it’s highly likely they’ll win all 9 seats so you’ll need to divide by 10.

Yes but the share of the vote is what matters and the SNP  total is creeping up with every constituency that is counted so at 45% the number still look good even when you divide by 10.

[eez-eh]

13 minutes ago, eez-eh said:

It won’t happen because they’ll end up winning all 9 seats, hence their list votes will be divided by 10 in the end. The percentages are likely to stay fairly similar even as more list votes get added, so only dividing the SNP vote by 6 gives an incredibly false picture.

 

1 minute ago, GordonS said:

Ah hang on hang on. The party shares are likely to stay broadly the same as the votes come in from the other 4 constituencies. But the SNP's divisor will rise, almost certainly to 10. You were right in the first place, just ignore me!

 

Just now, GordonS said:

Aye, that penny dropped just before you replied.

Time for bed I think.

[Saltire]

1 minute ago, GordonS said:

Ah hang on hang on. The party shares are likely to stay broadly the same as the votes come in from the other 4 constituencies. But the SNP's divisor will rise, almost certainly to 10. You were right in the first place, just ignore me!

Yes but I was dividing the toatl vote for 5 constituencies by 10!!! I'll keep going anyway.

[eez-eh]

2 minutes ago, Saltire said:

Yes but the share of the vote is what matters and the SNP  total is creeping up with every constituency that is counted so at 45% the number still look good even when you divide by 10.

I admire your optimist but it would need to rise mahoosively for the remaining constituencies to have any chance of that happening.

[John Lambies Doos]

I think we are all scrambling round a false narrative. Its a pro independence majority that counts, an independence Bill passed and a stare down with WM to deny democracy.

Mon the greens

[Karpaty Lviv]

Has north Lanarkshire been declared? Should be SNP anyway. 

[topcat(The most tip top)]

Yes but the share of the vote is what matters and the SNP  total is creeping up with every constituency that is counted so at 45% the number still look good even when you divide by 10.

Predicting the share of list votes from the share of constituency votes isn’t the most reliable of measures

[John Lambies Doos]

Has north Lanarkshire been declared? Should be SNP anyway. 

Its all SNP except the list

[Saltire]

3 minutes ago, eez-eh said:

I admire your optimist but it would need to rise mahoosively for the remaining constituencies to have any chance of that happening.

Ok I've prorated all the parties votes for 9 seats and my initial inclination to ignore the SNP on the list looks to have been correct.

[Saltire]

7 minutes ago, topcat(The most tip top) said:

 

Predicting the share of list votes from the share of constituency votes isn’t the most reliable of measures
 

 

Those are the list votes for the constituencies not FPTP.

[Ginaro]

16 minutes ago, eez-eh said:

I admire your optimist but it would need to rise mahoosively for the remaining constituencies to have any chance of that happening.

Yep, if you're dividing by 10 then you need >50% to end up with 5% which is basically the magic number to have a chance of getting a list seat. 

Turnout	300,000		Example	region
Party	Labour	SNP	Lib Dem	Cons	Green	Alba	Total
% vote	20.1	50.3	2.6	13.5	9.7	1.8	98
Regional Party Totals	60,300	150,900	7,800	40,500	29,100	5,400
Constituency seats		9
Round 1	60,300	15,090	7,800	40,500	29,100	5,400
Round 2	30,150	15,090	7,800	40,500	29,100	5,400
Round 3	30,150	15,090	7,800	20,250	29,100	5,400
Round 4	20,100	15,090	7,800	20,250	29,100	5,400
Round 5	20,100	15,090	7,800	20,250	14,550	5,400
Round 6	20,100	15,090	7,800	13,500	14,550	5,400
Round 7	15,075	15,090	7,800	13,500	14,550	5,400
Seats	3	1		2	1

[topcat(The most tip top)]

Those are the list votes for the constituencies not FPTP.

I stand corrected

[sergie's no1 fan]

I think we are all scrambling round a false narrative. Its a pro independence majority that counts, an independence Bill passed and a stare down with WM to deny democracy.

Mon the greens

Exactly.

Let's sit back watch the Unionists rejoice when Boris rejects the will of the Scottish people again.

If they are that sure we don't want Independence why don't the Tories back it up, put their money where their mouth is and 'allow' a second referendum?

[Saltire]

Forecast for Central Scotland by prorating from the 5 constituencies with Regional List Votes declared.

[Kejan]

Looking at the Lib Dem vote on the list vote from today and in many areas it's absolutely terrible, under 5% in many areas, suppose how they do in Aberdeen West/East tomorrow (imagine Dundee East and Angus South they'll be on less than 5%) but thinking the Greens might well gain that final NE regional Lib Dem seat! 

 

[GordonS]

Woah. The SNP didn't do well against the Lib Dems in Shetland just because they had a better candidate. They did well because this is the way Shetland is going - they won the regional vote.

 

[GordonS]

... and less than 300 votes behind the Lib Dems on the regional votes in Orkney: