Scottish Parliamentary Elections May 2021

[SANTAN]

2 minutes ago, Busta Nut said:

@G51 @Stormzy Did you vote Tory or tactically lads?

After the voices subsided I went for Tory/Labour in a seat that the SNP will probably hold. 

[SANTAN]

7 minutes ago, Busta Nut said:

You never offered an opinion.

I didnt need to. You said you couldn't understand how people don't like Nicola Sturgeon. That's the opinion I'm referring to. 

[G51]

3 minutes ago, Busta Nut said:

@G51 @Stormzy Did you vote Tory or tactically lads?

I don't get a vote pal

[betting competition]

9 minutes ago, Tartan Dave said:

I was meaning tactical voters voting whichever unionist had a chance. Snp/green would have been my choice if Harvie was in my constituency, but he wasn’t. I voted snp/snp

I know you was but I was going with the Independence movement which needs to understand the list vote so we can get more seats. 

[MP_MFC]

Increased majority of 7813 over Labour.

Motherwell! Mooooootherwell!

[Inanimate Carbon Rod]

4 minutes ago, microdave said:

The Snp currently have a net gain of one but need two for a majority. Eastwood and Dumbarton were the ones I was looking for but Aberdeenshire West could be the one that swings it. Only 900 majority last time.At the last election, I was doing sampling at the count and the support for Jackie Baillie in Helensburgh was off the scale. I'm really surprised that there was a lack of campaigning there especially considering how close the result was in 2016. That would've been my no.1 target for votes.

The candidate i think did a walk about in Kirkmichael the scheme up there but thats about all I saw and I followed the race quite closely. Voters can absolutely see when you parachute a careerist failed candidate in to a seat and its a credit to the pro indy folks in that constituency that they managed to rally round what was essentially the most beige candidate imaginable. 

[Paco]

So, for an overall majority, all the SNP need is to win all the 26 as yet undeclared seats they won last time and add another one from either Aberdeenshire West or Galloway & West Dumfries.  No list seats needed. That right? 
Gulp.
Piece of piss... [emoji52]

They need to maintain one list MSP from Highlands and Islands, which should be no issue, and one from South Scotland - they got three last time but have picked up East Lothian and Ayr in the constituency. Again shouldn’t be an issue.

Aberdeenshire West is the only half chance I’d say. 900 majority but the Lib Dems picked up over 7500 votes last time. Patterns suggest a chunk of those will go Tory.

Galloway & West Dumfries is a fairly strong Tory area, a reasonable majority and Emma Harper was suggesting a hard border post-independence. I can’t see her coming close.

The only other tiny chance is a second list MSP in South Scotland. Almost no chance there either though I suspect.

Always a chance that another one of the seats gets flipped as well. Absolute best case for the SNP looks like 65, worst case 60 or so.

[Tartan Dave]

1 minute ago, betting competition said:

I know you was but I was going with the Independence movement which needs to understand the list vote so we can get more seats. 

Ah I see. I live in highlands for regional vote mate. Snp/snp was the advice. Although I’m not a massive fan of tactical voting and doubt I’d let it affect my choice

[D Angelo Barksdale]

1 minute ago, G51 said:

I don't get a vote pal

Hope you get out soon brother. How long is left on your sentence ?

[Busta Nut]

2 minutes ago, Stormzy said:

After the voices subsided I went for Tory/Labour in a seat that the SNP will probably hold. 

In the south? only a few of them there.

1 minute ago, G51 said:

I don't get a vote pal

My mistake. I remembered you being a northern rangers fan.

[Donathan]

So, for an overall majority, all the SNP need is to win all the 26 as yet undeclared seats they won last time and add another one from either Aberdeenshire West or Galloway & West Dumfries.  No list seats needed. That right? 
Gulp.
Piece of piss... [emoji52]

Not quite. There are only 25 undeclared constituencies. 23 of those are SNP seats, the other 2 which you mention are Tory.

If the SNP keep those 23, 39+23 = 62 (3 short). As things stand the SNP should get 2 list seats, one in H&I and one in the south. So that puts them 1 short.

However, gaining G&WD would cancel out that list seat in the South. So the result is actually immaterial in that constituency.

TLDR: The SNP must win Aberdeenshire West and hold all of their 23 undeclared constituencies to get a majority.

[betting competition]

8 minutes ago, Donathan said:

 

 

Would a win in G&WD be cancelled out on the list anyway? Aberdeenshire West looks like the final chance at a majority.

What seats are the Tories targeting that haven’t been called yet? Perthshire South?

 

 

You are right with that. 

Perthshire South and Kinross-shire and also Edinburgh Pentlands which is their top 2 targets. 

 

[DeeTillEhDeh]

Another massively pro Indyref parliament to be returned, another f**k knows how long of people confusing arguing for the Union with arguing against the democratic mandate to ask the question. 
No one with any interest in a democratic society should be arguing that the Scottish people have not asked for, and are therefore entitled to, a referendum. 
Make your case during that referendum. Its no democracy at all to continue to deny it. 

The Unionists are now trying to dictate who does and does not count as a pro-independence MSP.

If a vote goes to Parliament to have a referendum and it passes then it does not matter who votes for it.

It's called fucking democracy.

[microdave]

The candidate i think did a walk about in Kirkmichael the scheme up there but thats about all I saw and I followed the race quite closely. Voters can absolutely see when you parachute a careerist failed candidate in to a seat and its a credit to the pro indy folks in that constituency that they managed to rally round what was essentially the most beige candidate imaginable. 

That's disappointing. Hopefully the local party remember this when they're selecting candidates in the future. #GoLocal

[D Angelo Barksdale]

Donathan was the real star of today.

Don't know if he's done enough for one of the big briefs like Finance or Education, but a shoe in for something like Transport imo.

[glasgow-sheep]

What seats are the Tories targeting that haven’t been called yet? Perthshire South?

Apparently Edinburgh Pentlands. Last time out SNP won by 7% from the Tories but labour got 23%
South Perthshire. Last time out SNP won by 3.8% from Tories. Labour 9% and LibDems 8%

[paolo2143]

If and it is a big if, the SNP were to hold Edinburgh Pentlands and Perth & Kinross South and win Aberdeen West then we they could still sneak 65 seats.

I still think they will pick up at least 3 seats on list 91 in Highlands and 2 in South of Scotland).

The trouble is with the tactical Unionist voting i suspect that will be too much. A few weeks ago i predicted on the gambling & prediction thread that the final outcome would be

SNP 64, Greens 7, ALBA 1, Labour 24 , Tories 28 , LD's 5 and that  the SNP would get around 47.8% of constituency vote and around 38.9 % on List.

I think that is going to be very close to final outcome although ALBA will not get a single seat by looks of things.

Let's be honest back in March when the FM 's position looked precarious we would have taken a result that returned 70 plus Pro Indy MSP's and it is a fantastic result which means that at some point in next couple of years we can turn pressure up for Indy 2. When i say turn pressure up i mean it and i think Indy voters must be prepared to become much more pro active even if it means marching in the hundreds of thousands in London and keeping up pressure constantly.

[G51]

5 minutes ago, Busta Nut said:

My mistake. I remembered you being a northern rangers fan.

I am indeed, but much like the story of every Highlander, I emigrated. I now only ever return home to lamb ewes and cut peats.

[SANTAN]

2 minutes ago, Henderson to deliver ..... said:

Donathan was the real star of today.

Don't know if he's done enough for one of the big briefs like Finance or Education, but a shoe in for something like Transport imo.

I actually thought he was at the count for a minute. 

[SANTAN]

7 minutes ago, Busta Nut said:

In the south? only a few of them there.

My mistake. I remembered you being a northern rangers fan.

Aye the MP for the region is Tory but due to the difference is areas for the Scottish Election we have Christine Graham who is SNP and will sadly probably win of name alone. It's a new Tory going against her because Michelle Ballantyne fucked off to the Reform group or some shit.