Scottish Parliamentary Elections May 2021

[eez-eh]

17 minutes ago, DC92 said:

Aberdeenshire is going to f**k this up isn't it?

Even if all the Labour and Lib Dem voters last time went Tory they’d still have been second.

I’d say it’s unlikely.

[John Lambies Doos]

Aberdeenshire is going to f**k this up isn't it?

No its not. SNP win comfortably

[John Lambies Doos]

Is there a timeline for expected results.

[the snudge]

15 minutes ago, GordonS said:

32 minutes ago, GiGi said:

Baillie sounds like she's shiting herself. Increased turnout in a marginal seat is not good news for her. 

I disagree, her vote is middle class and increased turnout in this election might very well mean greater differential turnout this time All those folk who usually commute to Glasgow are working from home, and middle class people are always more likely to get postal votes. I think she'll win by a couple of thousand.

I fucking hope not. I'll honestly cry at another few years of Baillie

[craigkillie]

14 minutes ago, DC92 said:

With the caveat that I don't know how far through they are, and I don't know whether "pleased" translates to "winning easily" or just "keeping it close", it's pretty rare to get a declaration without already having a decent idea of what the result looks like.

There are many more restrictions on the party representatives at the count this year so it might not be as easy for them to actually get a sense of how it's going.

[Salt n Vinegar]

5 minutes ago, John Lambies Doos said:

27 minutes ago, DC92 said:

Aberdeenshire is going to f**k this up isn't it?

No its not. SNP win comfortably

The SNP would get a majority if they hold their previous seats and take Edinburgh Central and Dumbartonshire.  (Oh please, PLEASE!) I could see them winning these 2, but it is a tough act to lose none at all.... If you look at a map showing the outcome of the constituencies won last time you see there's damn few seats left to try to take. 

[DC92]

11 minutes ago, eez-eh said:

Even if all the Labour and Lib Dem voters last time went Tory they’d still have been second.

I’d say it’s unlikely.

 

10 minutes ago, John Lambies Doos said:

31 minutes ago, DC92 said:

Aberdeenshire is going to f**k this up isn't it?

No its not. SNP win comfortably

It went from 60% SNP in 2015 to 50% Tory in 2019.

The Holyrood boundaries are slightly more favourable for the SNP I think, but I wouldn't be massively surprised.

[craigkillie]

1 hour ago, Mr Heliums said:

My bet is that the SNP would then  formalise a coalition with the Greens to make a pro-Indy coalition.

Would the Greens want to go along with that? They'd have to be careful they don't suffer the same fate as the Lib Dems in the UK where they end up being part of a coalition which acts against the original goals of the party. The SNP don't have a particularly great record on the climate or tenants' rights or some of the other issues that the Greens have won a lot of support for over the last decade or so.

[renton]

4 minutes ago, craigkillie said:

Would the Greens want to go along with that? They'd have to be careful they don't suffer the same fate as the Lib Dems in the UK where they end up being part of a coalition which acts against the original goals of the party. The SNP don't have a particularly great record on the climate or tenants' rights or some of the other issues that the Greens have won a lot of support for over the last decade or so.

Apparently some discussions on it prior to the election.

[John Lambies Doos]

Clydebank & Milngavie declaring just afternoon noon. Also re. Dumbarton, Bailie in big trouble...tactical voting may save her.

[Tattie36]

3 minutes ago, DC92 said:

 

It went from 60% SNP in 2015 to 50% Tory in 2019.

The Holyrood boundaries are slightly more favourable for the SNP I think, but I wouldn't be massively surprised.

“The Shire” is rammed with farmers, entitled oil industry arseholes and weirdos who genuinely believe Sturgeon hates Aberdeen and the north east. I wouldn’t be surprised in the slightest if the Tories won it.

[Mr Heliums]

1 minute ago, craigkillie said:

Would the Greens want to go along with that? They'd have to be careful they don't suffer the same fate as the Lib Dems in the UK where they end up being part of a coalition which acts against the original goals of the party. The SNP don't have a particularly great record on the climate or tenants' rights or some of the other issues that the Greens have won a lot of support for over the last decade or so.

Successful coalitions are common around Europe, so I don't see why the Lib Dems' disaster should have much bearing. I'd imagine the milestone of a government post would be tempting and the manifesto differences might be manageable. But like I said, just my hunch.

[invergowrie arab]

38 minutes ago, GordonS said:

43 minutes ago, DC92 said:

Aberdeenshire is going to f**k this up isn't it?

Journalists know nothing about election counts. If they did, and they schmoozed the right people, they'd be telling us the results of most seats in about an hour.

Our team usually have the result to around 5% by 10:15 on polling day once turnouts are in. 

[Stellaboz]

1 minute ago, invergowrie arab said:

Our team usually have the result to around 5% by 10:15 on polling day once turnouts are in. 

[vikingTON]

'Info leaked from counts' = 'Ah work fur the council and know when the next lockdoon is gonny happen' in credibility stakes. 

The best approach is to autofile all of it in the bin where it belongs.

[Donathan]

Banffshire & Buchan Coast to be declared in the next couple of hours, I’m hearing it’ll be an SNP hold but with the Tories substantially eating into the 6000 majority.

[John Lambies Doos]

Banffshire & Buchan Coast to be declared in the next couple of hours, I’m hearing it’ll be an SNP hold but with the Tories substantially eating into the 6000 majority.

Tactical voting squire

[GordonS]

Our team usually have the result to around 5% by 10:15 on polling day once turnouts are in. 

Yep, that's what I've seen at counts in Lanarkshire and West Lothian.

[Dink]

Would the Greens want to go along with that? They'd have to be careful they don't suffer the same fate as the Lib Dems in the UK where they end up being part of a coalition which acts against the original goals of the party. The SNP don't have a particularly great record on the climate or tenants' rights or some of the other issues that the Greens have won a lot of support for over the last decade or so.

I was in a meeting with Scottish Government this morning where I jokingly said that I'd only bothered to look at one manifesto to see what we might have to implement after the election. There was pretty much a unanimous reaction that things might change in line with another manifesto. So I'm guessing that discussions have taken place and it's pretty much an open secret in parts of SG.

[Steve_Wilkos]

Hi all, 

I'm mates with Big Sturgeon and she has told me the results:

SNP: 43%

Con: 42%

Lib: 7%

Green: 6%

Lab: 1%

Com: 0.9%

Make of that what you will.