Scottish Parliamentary Elections May 2021

[SANTAN]

25 minutes ago, Genuine Hibs Fan said:

Where are you getting the idea that austerity ended when Theresa May entered office?

I can't recall that being a focus. You probably can make your argument that I've supported any austerity during the May period by voting for them at that period but you would surely admit it wasn't as clear cut as the Cameron years?

Would you agree it's valid criticism for me to point out other posters that have decided they can pick and choose what policy they support don't feel that I can fairly do so? 

[SANTAN]

26 minutes ago, renton said:

To your first point, yes you can however supporting any part of Tory exclusive policy would mark you out as a c**t.

As to the second point, no. I'd vote for the party I believed in. It's the only to affect change in the long term.

On the assumption that you vote Tory because you are pissing yourself terrified because ONLY THE TORIES CAN STOP THE SNP HERE then you are being taken for a ride. The Tories have weaponised the constitutional question to keep them competitive. 

There is still a debate over whether there can be another referendum while the UK Government is implacably hostile to the idea. And even if there is another, you still have the opportunity to vote in accordance with your passionate beliefs in that referendum. So why not take the time, look at the party manifestos and choose the party that in a wider sense reflects your views. It won't change much this election, but next one?

And if you still end up at the end of that choosing, regressive, selfish, privileged, bigoted entrenchment, then, well, f**k you.

Fair enough, you can view me how you see fit. I'll be voting Tory/Labour and would vote Labour/Labour if they had a chance of winning here but I'd rather have a Unionist if I have a chance at making that difference. 

My main issue is the idea that people berated me for saying I picked and chose what policy I liked without necessarily endorsing all the policy and some people said that was impossible but are now saying they are doing the same with other parties.

[SANTAN]

25 minutes ago, Pato said:

It is a valid criticism, sure.

Not sure you can so neatly split the conservatives before and after May into unacceptable and acceptable. You presumably looked at the conservatives track record and decided they were the ones for you? Or was there something specific to Theresa May's vision that appealed to you which wasn't the case for Cameron? If so, what was that?

Austerity level government is one end of a range of possibilities post independence and I think it's perfectly valid to attack that on the same basis that I attack the conservatives today.

 

Thanks for acknowledging the validity, that's all I was really after to begin with. 

You're probably right regarding the boundaries and the differences between the two leaders, that's for you to decide on, I backed May because the debate at the time was over actually delivering Brexit and also the Indy question was a huge factor in the Scottish elections due to the SNP utilising their vote as being anti Brexit. Labour and Lib Dems had also previously been viable local options but had been obliterated in Scotland and my constituency at that point. 

[Monkey Tennis]

Right, definitive answer sought here please as to the sensible destination of my second vote.

I'm south of Scotland for the list.

My first vote will be going to the SNP.  I regard separatism as necessary now in achieving a lasting rejection of the Tories, especially in their most hideous recent guise.  

That being the case, where should my second vote go?  I'm thinking SNP twice, but wonder if there's logic in a Green vote, given the system.  

Forgive my ignorance in not already being clear on this.  Thank you.

[Arch Stanton]

2 minutes ago, Monkey Tennis said:

Right, definitive answer sought here please as to the sensible destination of my second vote.

I'm south of Scotland for the list.

My first vote will be going to the SNP.  I regard separatism as necessary now in achieving a lasting rejection of the Tories, especially in their most hideous recent guise.  

That being the case, where should my second vote go?  I'm thinking SNP twice, but wonder if there's logic in a Green vote, given the system.  

Forgive my ignorance in not already being clear on this.  Thank you.

SNP both votes in the South of Scotland.

Where I live I the West of Scotland there's little point voting SNP on the list as they will clear up on the constituencies.

[Genuine Hibs Fan]

29 minutes ago, Stormzy said:

I can't recall that being a focus. You probably can make your argument that I've supported any austerity during the May period by voting for them at that period but you would surely admit it wasn't as clear cut as the Cameron years?

Would you agree it's valid criticism for me to point out other posters that have decided they can pick and choose what policy they support don't feel that I can fairly do so? 

It wasn't till October 2018, more than 2 years after May became leader, that Hammond announced they were no longer pursuing a budget surplus in 2022/23 (despite his desires by all accounts so I guess credit to May for that maybe?). This was called an end to austerity but given that there would be no real terms increases in funding, other than to the NHS, it amounted to a stabilisation of austerity as opposed to an end to it. 

I mean yeah, it's a fair criticism if you don't believe that there's any material difference about the downsides of voting Tory and the downsides of voting Green/SNP, but we've had that argument before and I don't think we'll agree.

Like if someone said to you they were voting for the BNP because they don't agree with everything they say but their approach to arts funding was perfect for them, that would seem silly beside someone saying they were voting lib dem because they're a bit crap but the local candidate seemed like a good egg. Not making a Tories/other comparison here but you can see there's a question of scale right? 

Edited May 3, 2021 by Genuine Hibs Fan

[SANTAN]

8 minutes ago, Genuine Hibs Fan said:

It wasn't till October 2018, more than 2 years after May became leader, that Hammond announced they were no longer pursuing a budget surplus in 2022/23 (despite his desires by all accounts so I guess credit to May for that maybe?). This was called an end to austerity but given that there would be no real terms increases in funding, other than to the NHS, it amounted to a stabilisation of austerity as opposed to an end to it. 

I mean yeah, it's a fair criticism if you don't believe that there's any material difference about the downsides of voting Tory and the downsides of voting Green, but we've had that argument before and I don't think we'll agree.

Like if someone said to you they were voting for the BNP because they don't agree with everything they say but their approach to arts funding was perfect for them, that would seem silly beside someone saying they were voting lib dem because they're a bit crap but the local candidate seemed like a good egg. Not making a Tories/other comparison here but you can see there's a question of scale right? 

Of course. Everyone can make their own minds up about the scale and the morality behind certain decisions. I don't really mind if people do that. 

Specifically some posters have heavily criticised the human impact of lockdown and vociferously disagreed with the slower easing of lockdown up in Scotland, to then support a party which is generally more keen on the slower easing than others whilst saying you are picking and choosing seemed to me to be a good example that it was generally possible to adopt such a position. 

Edited May 3, 2021 by Stormzy

[Dunning1874]

13 hours ago, Burning Barns said:

The Green Party is, for the most part, ambiguous towards independence.  Their voters are split down the middle on the issue.  ALBA will definitely treat independence as a priority, whereas I'm not convinced this would be a given with the Greens.  

This argument has been doing the rounds a fair bit. It's baseless nonsense.

The idea that the Greens as a party are ambiguous on independence is risible. They have been pro-independence since before the first referendum, all their MSPs campaigned for it, all of them voted in favour of another referendum in the last parliament and they have had support for independence in their manifestos, including this one. When their membership more than trebled after the 2014 referendum, to the point that the party's youth wing became bigger than the entire party had been a fortnight earlier, d'you think all these people were joining because they weren't fussed about independence?

There is no ambiguity whatsoever. You have literally made this up, assuming you've actually come up with this argument yourself rather than parroting some Alba talking head word for word.

On their voters, there are two different facets to this. This idea that less than 50% of Green voters support independence came from an Ashcroft poll last week.

It was based on a sample of 82 people who indicated they might vote Green on the constituency, not the list where they've actually won all their seats in the history of the Scottish Parliament, and not all of those 82 even said there was an over 50% chance they'd vote Green on the list. The same poll finds that these supposed Green supporting constituency voters are more likely to vote Alba on the list than SNP constituency voters are, which is obviously insanity.

It is not within a million miles of a legitimate sample size to draw any realistic conclusions about Green voters. The same poll found (from a sample of 176) that 68.2% of those intending to vote Green on the list would vote for independence; the figure for Alba was a hugely different 74.7%. That was also a tiny sample size of 49; I don't see the Chris McElenys of the world running to Wings Over Scotland to say 25% of Alba voters don't want independence on the back of it, because that is clearly too small a sample to draw conclusions from.

Regardless, despite the lack of credible evidence that it's anywhere near 50%, let's just accept the premise that Green voters are less likely to support independence. Is it not a good thing that a party which supports independence can attract votes from people who don't? Was the same thing happening with the SNP not critical in moving independence from a pipe dream with around 30% support to being a defining issue in Scottish politics, which achieved 45% support in a referendum and has since had polling support over 50%?

Not everyone who voted for the SNP in 2007 or 2011 supported independence, many of them just thought the SNP were the best choice to be in government. They liked some other policies, they liked their competence, and growing to like the SNP's position on other areas opened them to being convinced on a more fundamental SNP policy in independence. This then moved the idea into the mainstream and gave a platform for more people to come round even without supporting the SNP in the first place. Obviously with the Greens there's no chance of them being a party of government and the idea is already in the mainstream but why wouldn't the same logic apply?

Realistically we have somewhere between 80-90% of the vote on independence locked in one way or another. Neither side is going to go below 40%, and any polls showing either side dipping that low or getting above 55% are outliers. There's somewhere around 15% of soft or undecided voters who'll flop either way based on how stories dominating the media reflect on the Scottish or UK governments. So when the dominant story and general perception of the media is Johnson making an arse of Covid while Sturgeon manages it well, independence support hits record highs in polling. When the dominant story becomes the Salmond inquiry and alleged Scottish government corruption, independence support plummets to the point No is back in the lead.

Seeing that there is a group of undecided voters who will flip from side to side so easily and they could decide the result of any referendum held in the next few years, surely it's a good thing to have a pro-independence party who can appeal to some of those undecided voters, with a manifesto covering a wide range of issues alongside their unambiguous support for independence, and a track record of delivering their policies despite a small number of MSPs. If these undecided voters find the Greens appealing to them on the basis of other issues then it makes them more likely to listen to the Greens on independence.

If instead of the Greens these undecided voters get a party who don't talk about anything but independence, with their contributions to the debate amounting to 'declare UDI yesterday' then they aren't going to be convinced. They're going to be pushed towards the Union, because a party which only appeals to those already supporting independence isn't going to change anyone's mind.

It's also an inescapable reality that Alex Salmond is widely despised. Among every demographic, every age group, male or female, Yes or No, Remain or Leave, in every region, Alex Salmond is viewed negatively by every grouping you can think of other than Alba voters. His presence in parliament would be the biggest gift Unionists have had since 2014. 

Edited May 3, 2021 by Dunning1874

[vikingTON]

You are utterly deluded if you think that either the Greens or the Alba Party are going to move the needle on independence support either way by beating each other to some list seats. 

The Salmond bogeyman thesis on this place is getting shriller and more hysterical as more polls suggest that Alba has a decent chance of picking up a few seats. 

[NotThePars]

Where has The Ghost of Barp disappeared off to?

[kevthedee]

I'm not sure what the chances are of Alex salmond getting elected as a MSP are but love him or hate him seeing him in parliament going head to head with nicola Sturgeon would certainly be interesting viewing.

Especially interesting would be the timing over independence,salmond knows fine well there are many within the SNP who are disappointed with the lack of progress towards independence and I would fully expect him to try and exploit that and to generally cause as much mischief as possible.

[Benjamin_Nevis]

Where has The Ghost of Barp disappeared off to?

Is he not "Burning Barns" now?

[Genuine Hibs Fan]

9 minutes ago, Day of the Lords said:

45 minutes ago, NotThePars said:

Where has The Ghost of Barp disappeared off to?

Is he not "Burning Barns" now?

Not enough demanding bets imo

[Benjamin_Nevis]

8 minutes ago, Genuine Hibs Fan said:

Not enough demanding bets imo

Give it time. Even Pep's new alias hasn't gone utterly mental. Yet. 

[NotThePars]

He's got til Thursday's Exit Poll to come back or his charity bet money is going to Mermaids.

Edited May 3, 2021 by NotThePars

[Burning Barns]

13 hours ago, HTG said:

From what I've seen, a lot of them are seasoned campaigners at slaughtering Nicola Sturgeon. Plus they're the party of choice for Wings. There are far too many total arseholes in that ALBA gang to go anywhere near it. They can get in the bin. Aye, there will be decent people in there but I'll be voting SNP or Green on the list.

Being able to criticise the FM, when deserved, is entirely healthy.  Unless you prefer the kind of party where people are encouraged to bring balloons to conference, instead of ideas.  

[btb]

Anecdotal only, but I've voted SNP (Constituency) and Green (List) on the past two Holyrood elections which family & friends have always considered a bit geeky  but I think a few more will be splitting their votes this way on Thursday.

Edited May 3, 2021 by btb

[John Lambies Doos]

He's got til Thursday's Exit Poll to come back or his charity bet money is going to Mermaids.

Will there be a exit poll?

[Caledonian1]

14 minutes ago, btb said:

Anecdotal only, but I've voted SNP (Constituency) and Green (List) on the past two Holyrood elections which family & friends have always considered a bit geeky  but I think a few more will be splitting their votes this way on Thursday.

Absolutely agree.  I think one of the big stories in this election will be the surge of the Greens on the list vote....fully expect them to out-perform all polls and predictions.

Just hoping the shite weather forecast puts off a considerable number of geriatric Tories

[Monkey Tennis]

7 minutes ago, John Lambies Doos said:

34 minutes ago, NotThePars said:

He's got til Thursday's Exit Poll to come back or his charity bet money is going to Mermaids.

Will there be a exit poll?

Pretty sure there isn't one for this.