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Loch Ness v Clyde Riviera


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Do we have to?

Two rotten teams, rubbish streaming service, poor commentary (unless Iain Auld is doing it) and some potentially dire football. Bring it on!

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This was 2nd v 5th just before lockdown on March 3rd 2020. Football should never have returned. 

That big carthorse Todorov to look like a reanimated Ján Koller against us as usual and score a hat trick. If McGinty, Blues or Salkeld are still somehow in the team then GMFC should just be liquidated on the spot. 

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I'd go as far as saying that if we don't win tonight, any chance of finishing 8th is gone. While the points gap to Arbroath, ICT  and Ayr will remain an entirely realistic one to close on a glance at the table, there's simply no way wins are going to come to do it if we come out of this run of three games with no wins. The absolute minimum acceptable return from a run of Dundee at home, Ayr at home & ICT away would be 5 points, and that would have been disappointing - it now can't be achieved.

In a 36 game season it's extremely hard for a team to overcome as bad a run as 11 games without a win:- the last time we had that was in 00/01 and we were relegated in 9th place. In a 27 game season it's going to be fatal. We simply have to win tonight to stay up, but this team has absolutely no idea how to win. If they take a lead they know they can't hold it - we've been ahead in five of our six draws in this winless run , with the other being 0-0 - and if they go behind they know they're beaten.

If there's any cause for optimism it's that ICT are the one team who've contrived to be ahead against us and not see out the win in this run, against 10 men no less, but I fully expect us to capitulate if we go behind this time.

A competent manager would be getting McGinty, Blues, Nesbitt and Salkeld out the starting XI after their horrendous performances recently - out the squad entirely and on loan to any League Two side daft enough to take them in Blues & Salkelds' case - but any notion that McElhone has the slightest idea what he's doing vanished with those substitutions on Saturday. I've genuinely never been so taken aback by a managerial decision, that double sub was the worst decision I've ever seen a manager make during a game.

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I fail to see how that would be a 'minimum' points target for a relegation battling, dogshit team. Yes the likes of Dundee and Ayr have been in ropey form, but the fundamental strength of their squad is significantly better than the garbage in the genuine relegation fight. Our record at Inverness is nothing short of brutal, yet suddenly a point is the minimum required?

The key games in the second quarter were Alloa, Arbroath and Queen of the South and we took one point from them. That's why we are where we are right now. 

The only way we'll clamber out of trouble is by taking 7 or 9 points from those same three games in the final quarter, as well as any hauners from teams that have nothing to play for. A highly unlikely win this evening wouldn't change this reality at all. 

Edited by vikingTON
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15 minutes ago, virginton said:

I fail to see how that would be a 'minimum' points target for a relegation battling, dogshit team. Yes the likes of Dundee and Ayr have been in ropey form, but the fundamental strength of their squad is significantly better than the garbage in the genuine relegation fight. Our record at Inverness is nothing short of brutal, yet suddenly a point is the minimum required?

The key games in the second quarter were Alloa, Arbroath and Queen of the South and we took one point from them. That's why we are where we are right now. 

The only way we'll clamber out of trouble is by taking 7 or 9 points from those same three games in the final quarter, as well as any hauners from teams that have nothing to play for. A highly unlikely win this evening wouldn't change this reality at all. 

The key games are those with our relegation rivals - that tag applies to Ayr & Caley Thistle as much as it applies to Arbroath, and considerably more so than Queen of the South who are out of danger. They are firmly in the group of teams we need to beat to survive.

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Ayr United and Inverness are not 'relegation rivals' - sit down. A couple of wins and they'll be back in the play-off hunt with some other midtable outfit being passed off as being in serious danger instead. In reality it's going to be two from the same four as it was at the start of the season. 

For all the View from the Terrace hyperventilating about how Queen of the South are now some swashbuckling, Ajax 95 outfit, we should have taken at least a point down there during their current run, and we're utter horseshit. They're likely safe as a result of their current streak of wins, but I would not be surprised if they had a similar streak of ridiculous losses in the final quarter. It happens more years than not with them.

A home game against Queen of the South is and will always be a much more important game to win than a trip to Inverness that we'd be writing off as 'anything is a bonus' 19 times out of 20. 

Edited by vikingTON
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So to summarise:

Ayr with only two wins in eleven, one point ahead of us in 8th - not in any serious danger of relegation, points against a mid-table outfit like them are an unexpected bonus

Inverness Caley Thistle with only one win in eleven, one point ahead of us in 7th - not in any serious danger of relegation, points against a mid-table outfit like them are an unexpected bonus

Queen of the South with eight wins in eleven, eight points clear of us in 4th - serious relegation rivals, a team we have to beat to survive, games with them will define our season?

I don't think we're going to beat them for what it's worth, but this is clearly the kind of game we need to win to stay up.

Edited by Dunning1874
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3 hours ago, Jamie_M said:

Congratulations to Neil McCann for securing his first win as ICT manager and securing their safety from the threat of relegation.

This. Very much this. Crisis clubs love the Ton.

The issue of who plays at centre-back for us has been very much over-rated; any pair from the options we have will struggle behind a team that just gives the ball away over and over again. If we're going to play without the ball, we should be launching it behind their full-backs and playing from there; not routinely giving it up in the middle of the park because we're shite.

Personally, I'd bring in Fjortoft for McGinty or McLean, but I'm not that bothered. And I'd rather see McGinty at left-back if Strapp is out than Muirhead. (To be clear, Sean McGinty is a very poor footballer.)

Further forward, Salkeld, Blues, and Nesbitt should get a seat on the bench (or the stand, in Blues' case).

Johnson worth a run (Sterling, I fear, is a lost boy coming to terms with the fact he's not going to have any sort of career in football).

And I never thought I'd be saying 'Oliver up front'; but here we are.

Routine home win... (unless Morton truly are just a collection of weirdos).

 

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2 hours ago, Dunning1874 said:

So to summarise:

Ayr with only two wins in eleven, one point ahead of us in 8th - not in any serious danger of relegation, points against a mid-table outfit like them are an unexpected bonus

Inverness Caley Thistle with only one win in eleven, one point ahead of us in 7th - not in any serious danger of relegation, points against a mid-table outfit like them are an unexpected bonus

Queen of the South with eight wins in eleven, eight points clear of us in 4th - serious relegation rivals, a team we have to beat to survive, games with them will define our season?

I don't think we're going to beat them for what it's worth, but this is clearly the kind of game we need to win to stay up.

It quite clearly isn't, given that we've won at Inverness once in about 20 visits and yet stayed up every single time regardless. And if we beat the poorest three sides in the division apart from ourselves in our run-in - Alloa (h); Queen of the South (h) and Arbroath (a) - then we'd have every chance of finishing 8th or above this season as well. 

Thanks for playing anyway.

Edited by vikingTON
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2 hours ago, RiG said:

If Harper misses out through injury we might end up playing 4 CBs tonight. Grim.

We literally only have two full backs and one of them is injured, so our options at left back are a centre back, a centre forward and an attacking midfielder.

None of these options have gone well for us in the past.

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MacGregor, Carson and Allardice all starting is quite pleasing. Probably the least shite part of our team right now.

Starting 3 ineffective strikers every game though, is killing any creativity. So look forward to another turgid display tonight.

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