The Hypothetical Roadmap to Getting Fans Back in the SPFL Grounds Discussion

[invergowrie arab]

24 minutes ago, craigkillie said:

You appeared to be contradicting the post you replied to, which said "prevent". Any decision like this has to be evidence-based surely, and that would require proof that there is actually a substantial difference between the two. Bear in mind that the "mixed" crowd probably has 60-70% of people fully vaccinated in the first place and the "fully vaccinated" crowd will possibly have something like 90% of people fully vaccinated by the time you exclude children and people who are exempt for any other reason. So you are most likely talking about a small number of people.

I was contradicting

3 hours ago, AJF said:

 

It's even crazier to believe that a crowd of 10,000+ people who have a covid passport is likely to minimise the spread of the virus in comparison to a 10,000+ mixed crowd 

As I said if you want to say it's illiberal or OTT or targeting the wrong audience or just a bad idea in general then fine but I'll fully admit I get triggered by the "doesn't prevent it" which is anti vaxer pish.

Although I sure AJF didn't mean it that way.

I'm sure with your stats background you would accept its not just about the affect of those in attendance but in a population level - again I'm talking here about the prevention argument in general. Not whether or not doing it at Hibs v Aberdeen is a good idea. 

 

Edited September 9, 2021 by invergowrie arab

[lubo_blaha]

It's just crazy to believe that it is somehow safe for 9,999 fans to attend a match without covid passports but it's not safe for 10,000 to attend without covid passports, no matter the stadium size.
It's even crazier to believe that a crowd of 10,000+ people who have a covid passport is likely to minimise the spread of the virus in comparison to a 10,000+ mixed crowd when the vaccine does not prevent transmission.
Additionally, what happens if a club have sold less than 10,000 tickets for a match, including to those without a vaccine passport but then sales on the day take the attendance above 10,000? Will those who do not have a passport be given a refund when they are refused entry?
Will the Scottish Government be making provisions to refund supporters who have purchased season tickets at clubs that will now no longer be able to attend matches?
Imagine you're a 10 year old that is football daft and you're now being told you can't go anymore because the parent/guardian that takes you has decided not to receive an entirely voluntary vaccine.

In terms of refunds, surely a precedent has been set by the entirety of last season being behind closed doors? Clubs are permitted to show PPV for any of their non-Sky games this season, so this will be offered to those who have chosen not to get vaccinated.

[craigkillie]

That is not what the ticket holder paid for.

[G_&_T]

4 hours ago, AJF said:

It's just crazy to believe that it is somehow safe for 9,999 fans to attend a match without covid passports but it's not safe for 10,000 to attend without covid passports, no matter the stadium size.

It's even crazier to believe that a crowd of 10,000+ people who have a covid passport is likely to minimise the spread of the virus in comparison to a 10,000+ mixed crowd when the vaccine does not prevent transmission.

Additionally, what happens if a club have sold less than 10,000 tickets for a match, including to those without a vaccine passport but then sales on the day take the attendance above 10,000? Will those who do not have a passport be given a refund when they are refused entry?

Will the Scottish Government be making provisions to refund supporters who have purchased season tickets at clubs that will now no longer be able to attend matches?

Imagine you're a 10 year old that is football daft and you're now being told you can't go anymore because the parent/guardian that takes you has decided not to receive an entirely voluntary vaccine.

This will only affect the five clubs in the SPL who regularly attract 10,000+. Clubs such as Kilmarnock could surely just close a stand or two and therefore their capacity for the match would be <10,000? 

[AJF]

4 minutes ago, G_&amp;_T said:

This will only affect the five clubs in the SPL who regularly attract 10,000+. Clubs such as Kilmarnock could surely just close a stand or two and therefore their capacity for the match would be <10,000? 

I’m not sure that’s quite a compelling argument by saying that only five of the best supported teams in the country will be impacted. It’ll also be the same for Scotland’s remaining World Cup qualifiers as well.

[G_&_T]

1 minute ago, AJF said:

I’m not sure that’s quite a compelling argument by saying that only five of the best supported teams in the country will be impacted. It’ll also be the same for Scotland’s remaining World Cup qualifiers as well.

Well there are 42 SPFL clubs, and only five of them will be affected is what I meant. They're also the wealthiest clubs in the country, too. However, seeing as they have announced these measures will be revised, I can see it affecting other clubs in a few months.

[Leith Green]

85% of over 18s have had 2 jags.

Some of the remaining 15% will have a medical exemption, some may have had one and this will encourage the 2nd.

As for the rest? I'm sure they can spend the Saturdays watching online while simultaneously checking Facebook for conspiracy theories.

[AJF]

46 minutes ago, Leith Green said:

85% of over 18s have had 2 jags.

Some of the remaining 15% will have a medical exemption, some may have had one and this will encourage the 2nd.

As for the rest? I'm sure they can spend the Saturdays watching online while simultaneously checking Facebook for conspiracy theories.

I think it’s sad to brand anyone deciding not to get the vaccine a conspiracy theorist, but that’s an argument for the covid thread, not here.

[HibeeJibee]

2 hours ago, craigkillie said:

Any decision like this has to be evidence-based surely, and that would require proof that there is actually a substantial difference between the two. ... you are most likely talking about a small number of people.

 

2 hours ago, AJF said:

This is what often gets overlooked. You are more likely to catch the virus from someone that is fully vaccinated than someone that isn’t. Outdoor transmission is also extremely unlikely

That's the crux of the matter in terms of direct effect.

It will not make a meaningful "safety" difference: the activities included are fractional amid the overall life of the population (about 2% of people watch football - once a week); the numbers who will be excluded are fractional (2 in 20 adults - minus some exempt); and some of the activities aren't high-risk (e.g. outdoor).

Still in the crowd are children, who have not been jabbed at all; the exempt; and those 18 in 20 adults who have been jabbed but are still able to catch it & spread it. Still carrying on almost every other aspect of daily life are... well... everybody; including the 2 in 20 who haven't got jabbed, and the half of them lacking in protection.

When you hear the general public asked about it on TV + radio a lot them clearly see it as a reassurance: surely it will make these activities "safe" and life at large appreciably "safer". This is a nice thought but it doesn't seem to be borne out by the facts... At a football game the unjabbed non-exempt adults are not the key vector. In society at large the unjabbed are not the key vector, and even if they are it's certainly not primarily from attending football games or visiting nightclubs. Nor is a football game the principal occasion the unjabbed cross each other's paths.

It's also totally arbitrary. You can pack a 10,000-seater 99% full and they aren't required. You can sparsely fill a 50,000-seater only 21% full and they are. It appears you can fill Almondvale or Firhill to 10k without them, but to half-fill Cappielow or Somerset with 5k you need them.

What it may do is coax some more of the 2 in 20 into taking the jab. Which is what it's primarily about.

Edited September 9, 2021 by HibeeJibee

[johnnydun]

Has any club come out with a statement or plans going forward?

[capt_oats]

28 minutes ago, johnnydun said:

Has any club come out with a statement or plans going forward?

Pretty sure Jim Goodwin has dug his tinfoil hat out.

[Pull My Strings]

15 hours ago, AJF said:

This is what often gets overlooked. You are more likely to catch the virus from someone that is fully vaccinated than someone that isn’t.

Outdoor transmission is also extremely unlikely so these covid passports should have no place in football.

FFS and you're more likely to be involved in a car accident involving a sober adult than a drunk child. Crucially, that's not an argument for getting kids tanked up and setting them loose on the roads. Can you guess why?

I see you've actually got folk on here quoting your post with approval. Dearie me.

[Granny Danger]

14 hours ago, AJF said:

I think it’s sad to brand anyone deciding not to get the vaccine a conspiracy theorist, but that’s an argument for the covid thread, not here.

I wouldn’t brand them a conspiracy theorist.  Selfish c**t yes but not a conspiracy theorist.

Unless, of course, they also believe in conspiracies.

Edited September 10, 2021 by Granny Danger

[Billy Jean King]

Pretty sure Jim Goodwin has dug his tinfoil hat out.

Given the rules as they stand will never apply to Saints home games I've no idea why he felt compelled to comment. I can only assume he didn't realise it would not apply to clubs with sub 10k all seated crowds when asked.

[craigkillie]

I'm glad managers sometimes comment on things that don't directly affect them, a parochial mindset doesn't help anyone.

[Leith Green]

19 hours ago, johnnydun said:

Has any club come out with a statement or plans going forward?

Hibs statement, but its really just a holding one - in summary, "consulting with the cooncil and SPFL, stop calling the ticket office ya fannies !"

 

https://www.hibernianfc.co.uk/article/statement-on-the-scottish-governments-covid-vaccine-passport-scheme?fbclid=IwAR1UY5v_uBP5kOIqHibdjltQcJZfbidfbIkZOAghFUjJumRf3LGGrzGmduw

[kingjoey]

19 hours ago, johnnydun said:

Has any club come out with a statement or plans going forward?

No statement as such from Aberdeen, but they have sent a survey to all fans on their database.

[Willie adie]

1 hour ago, kingjoey said:

No statement as such from Aberdeen, but they have sent a survey to all fans on their database.

Nae doubt Colgate Cormack will wait and see what his master Doncaster has to say, they came out all guns blazing last autumn, and were made to look like fucking idiots, hopefully they have learnt that lesson

 

[DukDukGoose]

3 hours ago, Willie adie said:

Nae doubt Colgate Cormack will wait and see what his master Doncaster has to say, they came out all guns blazing last autumn, and were made to look like fucking idiots, hopefully they have learnt that lesson

 

There wasn't much to the survey tbh. 

[kingjoey]

7 hours ago, Merkland Red said:

There wasn't much to the survey tbh. 

Basically, will the rules put you off going to matches.