The 2021 election and a mandate for Indyref2.

[git-intae-thum]

8 minutes ago, Erih Shtrep said:

Sturgeon understands politics better than you or that wings idiot.  

Gee whizz...this type of comment does nothing to aid honest discussion. 

[Erih Shtrep]

4 minutes ago, git-intae-thum said:

Gee whizz...this type of comment does nothing to aid honest discussion. 

Sorry fella, I wasn't attacking you in that sense, just offering my opinion.   

I think it might take two or three years but yes I believe the UK will end if Scotland returns a majority at the SG elections.  

If Boris says No I suspect we could have the situation where YES polls over 65% and leaders of the Labour and Lib Dem parties are applying pressure to allow democracy to happen.  

There's a tipping point and for the first time Scotland is entering an election with a solid majority for Yes.   

None of this matters though if we don't get the 50% plus 1.    If I was a betting man I'd say the SNP will poll between 45-49% 

[John Lambies Doos]

The SNP just need to ensure full unity and make this election all about independence.
Then 50% will be secured

[cdhafc1874]

Not up here they didn't.  Ewing stood in Inverness & Nairn but wasn't on the Highlands & Islands list.  Maree Todd was elected as she was first on the list.

Labour learnt that lesson in 2011 as some of their big hitters - who were sitting constituency MSP's - didn't put themselves on the regional list too.
Meaning when those folk got emptied their B team off the list ended up in Holyrood instead.

Certainly within the SNP it is up to the constituency candidate whether they put themselves forward for the regional list as well or not.

Certainly Toni Guiliano who's going up against sitting Labour MSP Jackie Baillie in Dumbarton is constituency only & didn't put himself forward for the list.

But for big hitters & candidates in constituencies currently not SNP held where they might not turn the seat yellow it makes sense to put themselves forward for the list too.

[SandyCromarty]

16 hours ago, jakedee said:

If they can continue to state that more than 50% of Scots do not support independence, then the Scottish Govt. cannot begin to court international sympathy to their cause, putting pressure on the UK Govt to allow the right of self determination.
Surely if all parameters show that the majority of Scots support independence,then their position becomes untenable internationally.

The Eu is more than aware of the Remain vote the Scottish people casted in the Brexit Referendum.

[Scary Bear]

That poll

What diverse and varied political views we have on this forum. It’s a wonder we’re not independent already.

[Gordon EF]

Alright, own up. Who voted Lib Dem?

[Double Jack D]

Whilst I've not been particularly satisfied with SNP Govt over the past couple of years I'm a definite SNP constituency vote. In either the constitutional or general competence category, they are streets ahead of any other party in Holyrood.

My list vote however.... I would consider Green but purely to maximise the chance of a pro indy candidate getting in rather than a Tory bottom feeder like Liz Smith or Murdo Fraser who scraped in on the Fife list the last time. I would have to hold my nose to vote Green however they smell far nicer than the alternative.

I would've loved an alternative Independence Party to have gained some traction on the list but it doesn't appear to be the case this time.

In any event, and rather negatively, I'm not sure its going to count for much. In my humblest of opinions I just can't see any chance in hell of this Tory government sanctioning indyref2. It would be political suicide for them across the entire UK amongst their core support. Whatever the figures that come in on May 7th (and I expect the SNP numbers to take a dent given this whole Salmond/ Sturgeon/ Cherry/ Gender shambles), I just can't see Johnson giving a toss what the Jocks think.

I hope the SNP have a plan for this.

[HeartsOfficialMoaner]

28 minutes ago, Double Jack D said:

Whilst I've not been particularly satisfied with SNP Govt over the past couple of years I'm a definite SNP constituency vote. In either the constitutional or general competence category, they are streets ahead of any other party in Holyrood.

My list vote however.... I would consider Green but purely to maximise the chance of a pro indy candidate getting in rather than a Tory bottom feeder like Liz Smith or Murdo Fraser who scraped in on the Fife list the last time. I would have to hold my nose to vote Green however they smell far nicer than the alternative.

I would've loved an alternative Independence Party to have gained some traction on the list but it doesn't appear to be the case this time.

In any event, and rather negatively, I'm not sure its going to count for much. In my humblest of opinions I just can't see any chance in hell of this Tory government sanctioning indyref2. It would be political suicide for them across the entire UK amongst their core support. Whatever the figures that come in on May 7th (and I expect the SNP numbers to take a dent given this whole Salmond/ Sturgeon/ Cherry/ Gender shambles), I just can't see Johnson giving a toss what the Jocks think.

I hope the SNP have a plan for this.

One of the questions in this survey was...

Some have suggested that leaving the European Union might present challenges to the UK. One of these includes a second independence referendum in which a majority of Scots vote to leave the UK. If this happens would you say that:

It was worth it to take back control - 80% of Tories

Leaving the EU was not worth risking a Yes vote in a second referendum - 20% of Tories

https://www.cardiff.ac.uk/__data/assets/pdf_file/0008/1708631/Copy-of-England-16-Oct-AH.pdf

English Tories don't care if the UK splits up going by this.

 

[Turkmenbashi]

1 minute ago, HeartsOfficialMoaner said:

One of the questions in this survey was...

Some have suggested that leaving the European Union might present challenges to the UK. One of these includes a second independence referendum in which a majority of Scots vote to leave the UK. If this happens would you say that:

It was worth it to take back control - 80% of Tories

Leaving the EU was not worth risking a Yes vote in a second referendum - 20% of Tories

https://www.cardiff.ac.uk/__data/assets/pdf_file/0008/1708631/Copy-of-England-16-Oct-AH.pdf

English Tories don't care if the UK splits up going by this.

 

While I agree about the rank and file would quite happily get rid of us, and possibly at least some of there MPs, there is not a chance Boris would want to be leader responsible for splitting up the U.K. 

[HeartsOfficialMoaner]

Just now, Turkmenbashi said:

While I agree about the rank and file would quite happily get rid of us, and possibly at least some of there MPs, there is not a chance Boris would want to be leader responsible for splitting up the U.K. 

Yes, I agree with that but just found the survey quite funny really as Scottish Tories are still desperate to hold on even though they are not wanted.

[SandyCromarty]

4 minutes ago, HeartsOfficialMoaner said:

One of the questions in this survey was...

Some have suggested that leaving the European Union might present challenges to the UK. One of these includes a second independence referendum in which a majority of Scots vote to leave the UK. If this happens would you say that:

It was worth it to take back control - 80% of Tories

Leaving the EU was not worth risking a Yes vote in a second referendum - 20% of Tories

https://www.cardiff.ac.uk/__data/assets/pdf_file/0008/1708631/Copy-of-England-16-Oct-AH.pdf

English Tories don't care if the UK splits up going by this.

 

I would say you're right that the average tory voter couldn't give a toss of the 'sweaties' split from the uk.

Then again you have to ask why the westminster government is so vehemently opposed to Scottish Independence.

Some of the answers is to be found in the House of Lords report that I mentioned before, in it they clearly state that if Scottish financial institutions were to fail then there would be repercussions in the remaining uk, they also highlighted the high cost to the uk in relocating defense systems, ( The Trident missile system being a major part of that). 

[Dawson Park Boy]

31 minutes ago, SandyCromarty said:

I would say you're right that the average tory voter couldn't give a toss of the 'sweaties' split from the uk.

Then again you have to ask why the westminster government is so vehemently opposed to Scottish Independence.

Some of the answers is to be found in the House of Lords report that I mentioned before, in it they clearly state that if Scottish financial institutions were to fail then there would be repercussions in the remaining uk, they also highlighted the high cost to the uk in relocating defense systems, ( The Trident missile system being a major part of that). 

They did fail.

RBS and Bank of Scotland.

You seem to have a short memory.

[SandyCromarty]

Aberdeen Asset Management.

Aegon UK

Adam and Company

Alliance Trust plc

Hampden and Co plc

Scottish Building Society (Oldest in the World).

Scottish Friendly

Scottish Widows

Standard Life Aberdeen

All companies with extensive investments throughout the UK

Banks presently based in Scotland - HBOS based in Edinburgh, RBS based in Edinburgh, Clydesdale Bank based in Glasgow Tesco Bank based at the Gyle Edinburgh, NatWest Group based in Edinburgh, Sainsbury's Bank plc based in Edinburgh,

[Dawson Park Boy]

18 minutes ago, SandyCromarty said:

Aberdeen Asset Management.

Aegon UK

Adam and Company

Alliance Trust plc

Hampden and Co plc

Scottish Building Society (Oldest in the World).

Scottish Friendly

Scottish Widows

Standard Life Aberdeen

All companies with extensive investments throughout the UK

Banks presently based in Scotland - HBOS based in Edinburgh, RBS based in Edinburgh, Clydesdale Bank based in Glasgow Tesco Bank based at the Gyle Edinburgh, NatWest Group based in Edinburgh, Sainsbury's Bank plc based in Edinburgh,

All great companies but totally reliant on London and the Bank of England, the lender of last resort.

Edinburgh is indeed important but first hint of independence they’ll be relocating to England.

[Highland Capital]

3 hours ago, Double Jack D said:

I would've loved an alternative Independence Party to have gained some traction on the list but it doesn't appear to be the case this time.

I wonder if the moment for that has passed.  Aside for the expansion of the Greens, none of them have gotten any traction at all while the previous third semi-mainstream independence party, the SSP, have gone backwards.  Solidarity got nowhere, though they did better at the last election than RISE.  The Independence 4 Scotland Party seem to be nothing more than minibus of weirdos and trans-obsessed fundamentalists.  The Scottish Libertarians did seem to try and fill a void in the pro-independence/pro-Brexit area but they're also a bunch of lunatics.

I have wondered in the past if a more conservative pro-independence party would actually convince more people on the right to vote Yes.  Yes's voices are all centre to left wing - if you're on the right, even just fiscally, there's no voices really to convince you to vote Yes.  Such a party wouldn't have been for me, but it may have helped convince others.  If it were to happen though, I imagine it would've happened by now.

Edited February 18, 2021 by Highland Capital

[ICTJohnboy]

48 minutes ago, Highland Capital said:

I wonder if the moment for that has passed.  Aside for the expansion of the Greens, none of them have gotten any traction at all while the previous third semi-mainstream independence party, the SSP, have gone backwards.  Solidarity got nowhere, though they did better at the last election than RISE.  The Independence 4 Scotland Party seem to be nothing more than minibus of weirdos and trans-obsessed fundamentalists.  The Scottish Libertarians did seem to try and fill a void in the pro-independence/pro-Brexit area but they're also a bunch of lunatics.

I have wondered in the past if a more conservative pro-independence party would actually convince more people on the right to vote Yes.  Yes's voices are all centre to left wing - if you're on the right, even just fiscally, there's no voices really to convince you to vote Yes.  Such a party wouldn't have been for me, but it may have helped convince others.  If it were to happen though, I imagine it would've happened by now.

 

Some good points raised there, but those on the right, who might consider voting yes, if there was such a thing as a conservative pro - independence party should realise is once independence is a reality, they will then be able to vote for more right leaning parties, should they so desire from that moment on. I've long regarded the SNP as a party who's raison-d'etre is purely and simply to deliver independence. So far, so good!

 

 

 

 

Edited February 18, 2021 by ICTJohnboy

[Double Jack D]

1 hour ago, Highland Capital said:

I wonder if the moment for that has passed.  Aside for the expansion of the Greens, none of them have gotten any traction at all while the previous third semi-mainstream independence party, the SSP, have gone backwards.  Solidarity got nowhere, though they did better at the last election than RISE.  The Independence 4 Scotland Party seem to be nothing more than minibus of weirdos and trans-obsessed fundamentalists.  The Scottish Libertarians did seem to try and fill a void in the pro-independence/pro-Brexit area but they're also a bunch of lunatics.

I have wondered in the past if a more conservative pro-independence party would actually convince more people on the right to vote Yes.  Yes's voices are all centre to left wing - if you're on the right, even just fiscally, there's no voices really to convince you to vote Yes.  Such a party wouldn't have been for me, but it may have helped convince others.  If it were to happen though, I imagine it would've happened by now.

RISE, SSP and Solidarity are all far too left wing for my liking. I like some of the Greens environmental policy but they are more obsessed with Gender politics at the minute which I've no real idea what my opinion is. Being a white , straight male the gender debate doesn't stir much passion in me at all. 

I may end up voting for the Greens on the list, purely as an attempt to further the indyref pressure more than any wild support for their wider policies. 

[Double Jack D]

3 hours ago, HeartsOfficialMoaner said:

One of the questions in this survey was...

Some have suggested that leaving the European Union might present challenges to the UK. One of these includes a second independence referendum in which a majority of Scots vote to leave the UK. If this happens would you say that:

It was worth it to take back control - 80% of Tories

Leaving the EU was not worth risking a Yes vote in a second referendum - 20% of Tories

https://www.cardiff.ac.uk/__data/assets/pdf_file/0008/1708631/Copy-of-England-16-Oct-AH.pdf

English Tories don't care if the UK splits up going by this.

 

There's a difference between not caring and voting for a Tory Prime Minister who let it happen. Boris has been elected on a manifesto to keep the UK together, he has as much a right to refuse a Section 30 order as SNP have to request one. The legal position on whether Holyrood can call a referendum on the behalf of the Scottish people hasn't been tested and the situation with the Keatings trial is that it is unlikely to be tested until the Scottish Government formally requests one.

There is decent chance that, legally, the power over the decision lies at Westminster. Particularly when  Scotland democratically voted for that to be the case in 2014. 

 

[Ira Gaines]

I'm still hung up on that Lib Dem vote tbh