Divisional Round

[AmericanFan]

1 minute ago, Boo Khaki said:

At the risk of sounding chicken, I honestly can't afford that charity bet right now as much as I'd like to. Months of furlough followed by an absolute gutting of the staff at my wee place has meant that I'm now basically covering the bills and relying on the kindness of my better half for any sort of treat or special event.

FWIW, I'm not claiming I definitely think that KC is a walking dead thing, only that I think the odds of that being an upset are a bit higher than most people seem to think. KC is 10-11 point favourites depending where you look, and if I had the cash I'd happily buy the Browns to cover that. I think O/U of 56 is probably about right though.

Sorry to hear that, man. It's a crap time for everyone for sure. Back in June I was in the worst financial position I've been in for 17 years. And I apologize as now I feel like I came off a bit like an ass. No idea how things work over there but I would hope the Scottish govt could maybe help out in someway? Anyways, if things get real bad just post something and maybe everyone here can chip in to help out or whatever.

Also keep in mind that I'm from Kansas City and am completely drinking the red Kool-Aid like never before, haha. You should hear local media, it's like they all think we're going to win by 3 touchdowns. I haven't been this sports arrogant since Kansas State college football was running to a 10-0 start in 2012, then got throttled by Baylor. 

If we lose Sunday to a Mayfield-quarterbacked team, I'll be drinking heavily Sunday night for a good while.

[Boo Khaki]

No worries, I didn't take it like that at all. Totally fine with friendly bets and a bit of metaphorical dick-swinging 

[steelmen]

Any given Sunday and all that.. remember the Raiders beat the chiefs this season so anything can happen.

I’m not convinced that having the bye is all that great, especially when you can afford to rest players in the last game too. 3 weeks with only practice isn’t ideal.

Not saying the browns will pump them but I do think they have a decent chance of an upset... and as a broncos fan I will drink heavily if they do!

[G51]

3 hours ago, AmericanFan said:

You should, because Mahomes isn't throwing four interceptions and Reid isn't dumb enough to not go for it on fourth-and-2 when trailing by double digits with the ball in opposition territory. Pittsburgh was a pish-show Sunday night and the Browns almost blew a game where they were +5 in turnovers.

Yes, the Browns get 2 starters back in the secondary, but they still have Mayfield as their quarterback. As long as that's the case, the divisional round is their ceiling.

To be fair, Andy Reid has definitely had his share of really stupid in-game coaching decisions over the years.

Obviously the Chiefs will be massive favourites and will very likely win (hence why the Browns are 10 point dogs). But I do see a way that this game pans out where Cleveland gives itself a shot - run the ball consistently well against that awful Chiefs run D, then run a quarters D and keep the Chiefs in front of them the whole game. You'll need to execute all this perfectly and hope for a bit of luck, but you never know. I trust Stefanski to get the game plan right and give them a chance.

Don't really get the shitting on Mayfield either. He's been a top 6 or 7 QB in nearly every important metric the second half of this season, once he got settled into this system. Yeah he's not Mahomes, but he's clearly good. The Chiefs write off this Cleveland offense at their peril.

[lichtie23]

Doesn’t Andy Reid have a superb record after a bye week? I’m sure I read that somewhere

[Brummie Clyde]

Doesn’t Andy Reid have a superb record after a bye week? I’m sure I read that somewhere

He definitely does

[AmericanFan]

10 hours ago, G51 said:

To be fair, Andy Reid has definitely had his share of really stupid in-game coaching decisions over the years.

Obviously the Chiefs will be massive favourites and will very likely win (hence why the Browns are 10 point dogs). But I do see a way that this game pans out where Cleveland gives itself a shot - run the ball consistently well against that awful Chiefs run D, then run a quarters D and keep the Chiefs in front of them the whole game. You'll need to execute all this perfectly and hope for a bit of luck, but you never know. I trust Stefanski to get the game plan right and give them a chance.

Don't really get the shitting on Mayfield either. He's been a top 6 or 7 QB in nearly every important metric the second half of this season, once he got settled into this system. Yeah he's not Mahomes, but he's clearly good. The Chiefs write off this Cleveland offense at their peril.

And none of those have come with Mahomes as his quarterback or in my opinion rivaled that dumb of a decision by Tomlin.

The Browns are built like a lot of the 90s Chiefs teams were. Awesome running game with an adequate quarterback that is primed to go 10-6 or 11-5, maybe win a wild card game and sell tickets for the following year. But in 2021 primarily running the ball and a quarterback like Mayfield aren't going to get you past the divisional round. It's why they needed Pittsburgh to shit all over themselves with a past-his-prime Big Ben to win last week.

Maybe I'm being a bit harsh on Mayfield as he doesn't suck, but I'd rank him 7th or 8th of the current quarterbacks left and around 11th of the playoff quarterbacks. From what I've seen with my eyes, I don't really want him as my quarterback in the playoffs.

[G51]

19 minutes ago, AmericanFan said:

And none of those have come with Mahomes as his quarterback or in my opinion rivaled that dumb of a decision by Tomlin.

The Browns are built like a lot of the 90s Chiefs teams were. Awesome running game with an adequate quarterback that is primed to go 10-6 or 11-5, maybe win a wild card game and sell tickets for the following year. But in 2021 primarily running the ball and a quarterback like Mayfield aren't going to get you past the divisional round. It's why they needed Pittsburgh to shit all over themselves with a past-his-prime Big Ben to win last week.

Maybe I'm being a bit harsh on Mayfield as he doesn't suck, but I'd rank him 7th or 8th of the current quarterbacks left and around 11th of the playoff quarterbacks. From what I've seen with my eyes, I don't really want him as my quarterback in the playoffs.

No doubt that Mahomes bails Reid out when he makes a bad in-game decision. Point I was making is it wasn't so long ago that Bill Simmons was writing his mailbag about Andy Reid's blood-engorged coaching boners in the playoffs. It just shows that having both a great quarterback and a good coach can really put you over the top.

I know there's a narrative that the Browns are a run-first team, and in the first half of the season they were, and this is where the narrative developed. But it's not really the case anymore. The offense has been carried by Mayfield in the second half of the season:

 

The Browns have a great running game, they can run the ball. But they don't need to run the ball, because their passing attack has developed:

 

As for the quarterback rankings, Mayfield is clearly better than Goff (especially Goff with a fucked up thumb). The guys after that are all guys who you could win a Super Bowl with. I think you can win one with Mayfield too. It won't be this year because the Browns D is so bad though.

Still think KC win this game 75% of the time. But the Browns have a path.

[AmericanFan]

3 minutes ago, G51 said:

No doubt that Mahomes bails Reid out when he makes a bad in-game decision. Point I was making is it wasn't so long ago that Bill Simmons was writing his mailbag about Andy Reid's blood-engorged coaching boners in the playoffs. It just shows that having both a great quarterback and a good coach can really put you over the top.

I know there's a narrative that the Browns are a run-first team, and in the first half of the season they were, and this is where the narrative developed. But it's not really the case anymore. The offense has been carried by Mayfield in the second half of the season:

 

The Browns have a great running game, they can run the ball. But they don't need to run the ball, because their passing attack has developed:

 

As for the quarterback rankings, Mayfield is clearly better than Goff (especially Goff with a fucked up thumb). The guys after that are all guys who you could win a Super Bowl with. I think you can win one with Mayfield too. It won't be this year because the Browns D is so bad though.

Still think KC win this game 75% of the time. But the Browns have a path.

And one can argue that because the Browns can run the ball, it allows Mayfield to be a better passer because the constant threat of Chubb/Hunt is there and defenses have to always account for that. In crunch time, Mayfield also still couldn't beat the Jets and barely beat a Steelers squad in Week 17 that fielded a bunch of backups and didn't care.

There's also a difference between regular-season play and playoff play, and I don't think Mayfield is a guy who can take a team to the Super Bowl. Nor do I think Lamar Jackson can. Time will tell, though.

The only path the Browns have to win this game is by being +3 in the turnover margin and hoping the Chiefs continue their lackadaisical play that was apparent a lot of the season.

If you want to make a wager with the loser donating money to charity, I'm down. I'll take the Chiefs -10, though this could have backdoor cover written all over it.

[G51]

8 minutes ago, AmericanFan said:

And one can argue that because the Browns can run the ball, it allows Mayfield to be a better passer because the constant threat of Chubb/Hunt is there and defenses have to always account for that. In crunch time, Mayfield also still couldn't beat the Jets and barely beat a Steelers squad in Week 17 that fielded a bunch of backups and didn't care.

There's also a difference between regular-season play and playoff play, and I don't think Mayfield is a guy who can take a team to the Super Bowl. Nor do I think Lamar Jackson can. Time will tell, though.

The only path the Browns have to win this game is by being +3 in the turnover margin and hoping the Chiefs continue their lackadaisical play that was apparent a lot of the season.

If you want to make a wager with the loser donating money to charity, I'm down. I'll take the Chiefs -10, though this could have backdoor cover written all over it.

Defenses absolutely load the box against the Browns. I think they've faced the most 8 man boxes in the league. Part of that is because of Chubb and Hunt, part of that is because they don't really have a burner at receiver. You also can't mention the Jets and Steelers game without mentioning the fact that they lost entire position groups in those games to COVID. Wipe out an entire position group and any game will be a struggle in the NFL.

I get what you're saying about SB winning QB's, but I think we, as fans, vastly overrate the requirements for being a Super Bowl winning QB. There are a lot of different ways to build a team. The last 5 SB winning QB's have been Mahomes, Brady (multiple times), Wilson, a washed Peyton and Nick Foles. From the sublime to the ridiculous. People forget we almost had Brock "Lobster" Osweiler quarterbacking a Super Bowl winner. I disagree that you can't win a single-elimination tournament with a top-10 QB - aside from everything else, variance is a huge factor in the NFL playoffs.

Mayfield has some growing to do to become a top-10 quarterback, but he's playing the best football of his career and his trajectory is firmly upwards under Stefanski. He's making progress with his issues (progressing through reads, stepping up in the pocket). My main problem with Jackson is he just isn't a good passer and he's one bad hit away from losing what makes him good. But for now, I reckon you could win a Super Bowl with him.

I'm not making the wager because like I said, I still think the Chiefs take this (and they could easily take it by 10+ even if the Browns play really well). But I just really like Stefanski and trust the guy to get the Browns scoring points. The problem for Cleveland is the other side of the ball stops them from having a decent chance of winning. If they can fix that in the draft and free agency, our conversation about next years Browns - Chiefs AFC Championship game in Cleveland might be very different.

[Fife Saint]

Bitonio, Ward and Hodge back from Covid list for CLE, as is HC Stefanski and OLC Callahan. Conklin hasn't practiced but hopeful of playing.

Edwards-Helaire downgraded to DNP for KC.


I'm thoroughly looking forward to this...

[Fuctifano]

I think the Browns will cover, whether they win I'm not sure.

Feel similar about the Bills game, nowhere near as nervous as last week in terms of the outcome though. Last week would have been a disaster if they'd lost, the season has been about erasing so many unwanted stats accrued over a long, long period. First division win in 25 years, primetime road wins, best division record since the 90s, sweeping the Patriots, hosting first playoff game since HD TVs became a thing.

Losing in the WC round and having the "not winning in the playoffs since 1995" stigma hanging over them for at least another year as well as all the "Josh Allen can't do it in the playoffs" takes would have been a horrible outcome. Will be disappointed if they lose this week, especially given I'll have stayed up half the night to see it, but seems less pressure.

The forecast seems to have gone over the week from blizzard to no snow to somewhere in the middle.  Current forecast -1 and windy with 40% chance of snow. at kick off. Bills  2020/1 are really a dome team with a high-volume passing attack though, got to feel a snow game suits the Ravens.

Moss is out so TJ Yeldon will be the second running back, he's a better pass catcher and better in pass protection than any other RB on the Bills roster which with the Ravens blitzing lots might be not the worst outcome.

 

[AmericanFan]

6 hours ago, G51 said:

Defenses absolutely load the box against the Browns. I think they've faced the most 8 man boxes in the league. Part of that is because of Chubb and Hunt, part of that is because they don't really have a burner at receiver. You also can't mention the Jets and Steelers game without mentioning the fact that they lost entire position groups in those games to COVID. Wipe out an entire position group and any game will be a struggle in the NFL.

I get what you're saying about SB winning QB's, but I think we, as fans, vastly overrate the requirements for being a Super Bowl winning QB. There are a lot of different ways to build a team. The last 5 SB winning QB's have been Mahomes, Brady (multiple times), Wilson, a washed Peyton and Nick Foles. From the sublime to the ridiculous. People forget we almost had Brock "Lobster" Osweiler quarterbacking a Super Bowl winner. I disagree that you can't win a single-elimination tournament with a top-10 QB - aside from everything else, variance is a huge factor in the NFL playoffs.

Mayfield has some growing to do to become a top-10 quarterback, but he's playing the best football of his career and his trajectory is firmly upwards under Stefanski. He's making progress with his issues (progressing through reads, stepping up in the pocket). My main problem with Jackson is he just isn't a good passer and he's one bad hit away from losing what makes him good. But for now, I reckon you could win a Super Bowl with him.

I'm not making the wager because like I said, I still think the Chiefs take this (and they could easily take it by 10+ even if the Browns play really well). But I just really like Stefanski and trust the guy to get the Browns scoring points. The problem for Cleveland is the other side of the ball stops them from having a decent chance of winning. If they can fix that in the draft and free agency, our conversation about next years Browns - Chiefs AFC Championship game in Cleveland might be very different.

Personally, I don't think you can overrate the QB position enough in winning the Super Bowl in the current NFL. It's the reason the Chiefs were never going to win it all with Alex Smith as QB, even with Kareem Hunt leading the NFL in rushing, unless they had a 2000 Baltimore Ravens defense to go along with him.

Foles was money for the Eagles in the NFC championship game and the Super Bowl that year (granted, they got lucky against the Falcons in the divisional round), and the Broncos are the example of a team that comes around once every 12-15 years winning it all by having a generational defense, a good running game and somebody at QB in Manning who doesn't screw it up.

I'm going to need another year from Mayfield before I buy in. Right now, he's not where I'm like, "Yeah, this guy could throw for 350 and four touchdowns any game." Especially as he just had a running back tandem that each went for 1,100 yards from scrimmage and 11 TDs. I concur on Jackson, he just isn't accurate enough and his style of play doesn't lend itself to being a player that lasts long (see: Cam Newton, who will likely be out of the league before age 32).

As for Stefanski, let's see if he can keep it up on an annual basis. Getting to the playoffs one year and getting lucky your opponent was complete pish and basically handed you a win is one thing, but getting to the playoffs year after year and winning games is another.

If we're having a Browns-Chiefs AFC Championship game next year I'll certainly welcome it as Cleveland fans have suffered far too long. I'll probably be even more arrogant at that time if the Chiefs are coming off another Super Bowl, haha.

[Fife Saint]

One to whet the appetite..

[lichtie23]

One to whet the appetite..

Defence was optional

[Fife Saint]

Defence was optional

It's the Big12 [emoji23]

[BukyOHare]

On 14/01/2021 at 05:44, Boo Khaki said:

At the risk of sounding chicken, I honestly can't afford that charity bet right now as much as I'd like to. Months of furlough followed by an absolute gutting of the staff at my wee place has meant that I'm now basically covering the bills and relying on the kindness of my better half for any sort of treat or special event.

FWIW, I'm not claiming I definitely think that KC is a walking dead thing, only that I think the odds of that being an upset are a bit higher than most people seem to think. KC is 10-11 point favourites depending where you look, and if I had the cash I'd happily buy the Browns to cover that. I think O/U of 56 is probably about right though.

The Chiefs might score 50, but they haven't been as elite as they have been previously. One things for sure. 10 points is too much for the Browns, based on this seasons stats and metrics anyway. 

The Browns are one of the few teams I'd compare to the Raiders and we know the trouble they gave the Chiefs this season. 

I know the Chiefs are coming out of their bye and the Browns Superbowl could have been last week so there might be a hangover there, but a double digit start is too high in my opinion. 

Edited January 15, 2021 by BukyOHare

[AmericanFan]

3 hours ago, BukyOHare said:

The Chiefs might score 50, but they haven't been as elite as they have been previously. One things for sure. 10 points is too much for the Browns, based on this seasons stats and metrics anyway. 

The Browns are one of the few teams I'd compare to the Raiders and we know the trouble they gave the Chiefs this season. 

I know the Chiefs are coming out of their bye and the Browns Superbowl could have been last week so there might be a hangover there, but a double digit start is too high in my opinion. 

My bet offer is open to anyone on the board. Loser makes a donation to the charity of the winner's choice and posts the receipt on here. If I win with the Chiefs -10, I'd probably just tell you to make a 25 pound donation to the Scottish charity of your choice.

[Bully Wee Villa]

On 14/01/2021 at 05:33, AmericanFan said:

but they still have Mayfield as their quarterback. As long as that's the case, the divisional round is their ceiling.

Ahem, Rex Grossman played in a Super Bowl. Not very well, but that's not the point. Plenty of worse quarterbacks than Mayfield have gone far in the playoffs.

Still, it would be a shock if it happened with the Browns, granted.

Who I'm supporting: Rams, Bills, Browns, Saints.

Who I think will win: Packers, Ravens, Chiefs, Buccaneers.

[AmericanFan]

5 hours ago, Bully Wee Villa said:

Ahem, Rex Grossman played in a Super Bowl. Not very well, but that's not the point. Plenty of worse quarterbacks than Mayfield have gone far in the playoffs.

Still, it would be a shock if it happened with the Browns, granted.

Who I'm supporting: Rams, Bills, Browns, Saints.

Who I think will win: Packers, Ravens, Chiefs, Buccaneers.

Sure, but it's 2021, not 2007. Game is even more quarterback driven now, and Grossman was lucky enough to play with the greatest kick/punt returner ever, the NFC's best defense and was the beneficiary of the Saints playing like complete pish in the NFC title game.