theboke Posted March 8, 2021 Share Posted March 8, 2021 19 minutes ago, craigkillie said: This is absolute nonsense. The probability for the 2nd placed side increases, but it does so at the expense of the probabilities of the other clubs in the league. The probability of Montrose being promoted if they finish 4th under the current system is 25%, but that would drop to 0% if it was 9th v 2nd. The probability of a League 1 team being promoted decreases from 75% to 50%, which is what should matter to the league as a collective. They need to know that straight away, because if it's a 22 or 27 game season they need to schedule midweek games straight away to fit all the fixtures in. No it doesn't. The champions do not have a zero probability of being promoted. Unless it's last season and we're in the Highland or the Lowland leagues ofcourse. Your original point seemed to be about the probabilities of League 1 sides who qualify for the playoffs gaining promotion by that route. Now you're talking about the probabilities of all individual teams in the league regardless of playoff qualification . Of course the probability of being promoted of any team not qualifying for the promotion playoffs however they're done drops to nil. Unless theyre the champion club. That's clear. As I said the probability of being promoted of any individual League 1 team that reaches a 9th v 2nd playoff is 50pc which is higher than the 25pc for reaching the current playoffs. What in reality matters to individual clubs may not be the same thing as what you feel should matter to the league as a collective. The proposed split if it was effectively substituted in place of the current playoffs would change the outlook again. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
craigkillie Posted March 8, 2021 Share Posted March 8, 2021 9 minutes ago, theboke said: As I said the probability of being promoted of any individual League 1 team that reaches a 9th v 2nd playoff is 50pc which is higher than the 25pc for reaching the current playoffs. But it's much harder to reach that play-off, so you have to weigh that probability against the probability of actually winning it once you're there. League 1 currently has 1.75 promotion places, and a change to this system would reduce that to 1.5. That is very clear. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thom & Gerry Posted March 8, 2021 Share Posted March 8, 2021 3 hours ago, theoriginalhedge said: Strathclyde's finest were quoted as saying they found themselves in a difficult situation at both Saturday and Sunday gatherings. Just wondering what the difficulty was ? Probably because they were outnumbered 500 -1. Where was Stevie G telling them to fck off home? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
theoriginalhedge Posted March 8, 2021 Share Posted March 8, 2021 47 minutes ago, Thom & Gerry said: Probably because they were outnumbered 500 -1. Where was Stevie G telling them to fck off home? He was trying frantically to find that track on his Tina Turner CD 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hampden Diehard Posted March 8, 2021 Share Posted March 8, 2021 2 hours ago, Left Back said: So go into the rest of the season, playing games back to back, with no idea of when the season is planned to end? Not having a plan/structure in place at the start of the season created this mess. If both sides can't reach an agreement what happens then? There's a bit of a flap on and we're all having to play it by ear. Just in case this COVID thing hasn't cleared by August, what would your plan be for next season? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Left Back Posted March 8, 2021 Share Posted March 8, 2021 10 minutes ago, Hampden Diehard said: There's a bit of a flap on and we're all having to play it by ear. Just in case this COVID thing hasn't cleared by August, what would your plan be for next season? We shouldn’t be playing it by ear. There should have been clear rules laid out at the start of the season about what happens in the event of disruption. Other sports manage it. Cricket has a system called Duckworth Lewis that determines how much play is left in an individual match in the event of disruptions (a frequent occurrence). It’s a prescribed formula that says if x amount of time is lost after y amount of play we then use z amount of play to complete as much of the game as possible to arrive at a result. It also has a clear definition of the minimum amount of play that has to be achieved to constitute a match. Extrapolating a cricket match to a football season something along those lines could be developed to say if we lost x weeks/months we lose y games from the end of the fixture list. Will never happen though. Football is stuck in the dark ages and the clubs have their heads up their arses. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
theboke Posted March 8, 2021 Share Posted March 8, 2021 On 07/03/2021 at 12:41, craigkillie said: Assuming every club is roughly equal in ability, a League 1 side will be promoted under the current system 75% of the time. Changing it to just 9th v 2nd would reduce that to 50%. 1 hour ago, craigkillie said: But it's much harder to reach that play-off, so you have to weigh that probability against the probability of actually winning it once you're there. League 1 currently has 1.75 promotion places, and a change to this system would reduce that to 1.5. That is very clear. Your argument has changed from being about probabilities of a League 1 side being promoted once they actually reach the playoffs to their probabilities of being promoted from the outset. Again the probability of a League 1 team being promoted is 50pc when there are 2 teams involved in the playoffs and only 25pc when there are 4 teams involved. I suppose clubs would need to take a view on that given the circumstances with a possible split to initially reduce their pool of rivals and how confident they feel about the head to heads thereafter. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
theboke Posted March 8, 2021 Share Posted March 8, 2021 3 hours ago, Left Back said: So go into the rest of the season, playing games back to back, with no idea of when the season is planned to end? Not having a plan/structure in place at the start of the season created this mess. If both sides can't reach an agreement what happens then? Status quo ante. Carry on with what actually has been previously agreed by board and clubs. Which is to progress with a 27 game season as far as possible and likely use the precedent of points per game which is our version of that complicated cricket formula. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
craigkillie Posted March 8, 2021 Share Posted March 8, 2021 Your argument has changed from being about probabilities of a League 1 side being promoted once they actually reach the playoffs to their probabilities of being promoted from the outset. Again the probability of a League 1 team being promoted is 50pc when there are 2 teams involved in the playoffs and only 25pc when there are 4 teams involved. I suppose clubs would need to take a view on that given the circumstances with a possible split to initially reduce their pool of rivals and how confident they feel about the head to heads thereafter.My argument hasn't changed at all, you're just struggling to read properly. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Resurrection Posted March 8, 2021 Share Posted March 8, 2021 2 hours ago, Thom & Gerry said: Probably because they were outnumbered 500 -1. Where was Stevie G telling them to fck off home? Probably waving at them from the window. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
theboke Posted March 9, 2021 Share Posted March 9, 2021 12 hours ago, craigkillie said: My argument hasn't changed at all, you're just struggling to read properly. Why you factually inaccurate pompus sentence punctuating How dare you? HOW DARE YOU¿¿¿¿¿????????? F*ck f*cking f*ckety f*cking f*lk*rk AAAAAAARRRRRGGGGGGHHH hhffhjjbgtgccxgjihvvbjjbvhjmnbvvhbvvvbbnnvbjjhhhjkmnkkmnnj 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hampden Diehard Posted March 10, 2021 Share Posted March 10, 2021 On 08/03/2021 at 19:03, Left Back said: We shouldn’t be playing it by ear. There should have been clear rules laid out at the start of the season about what happens in the event of disruption. Other sports manage it. Cricket has a system called Duckworth Lewis that determines how much play is left in an individual match in the event of disruptions (a frequent occurrence). It’s a prescribed formula that says if x amount of time is lost after y amount of play we then use z amount of play to complete as much of the game as possible to arrive at a result. It also has a clear definition of the minimum amount of play that has to be achieved to constitute a match. Extrapolating a cricket match to a football season something along those lines could be developed to say if we lost x weeks/months we lose y games from the end of the fixture list. Will never happen though. Football is stuck in the dark ages and the clubs have their heads up their arses. They run off the pitch at the first sign of rain in cricket. Hardly a sport to learn anything from. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marten Posted March 10, 2021 Share Posted March 10, 2021 On 08/03/2021 at 19:03, Left Back said: We shouldn’t be playing it by ear. There should have been clear rules laid out at the start of the season about what happens in the event of disruption. Other sports manage it. Cricket has a system called Duckworth Lewis that determines how much play is left in an individual match in the event of disruptions (a frequent occurrence). It’s a prescribed formula that says if x amount of time is lost after y amount of play we then use z amount of play to complete as much of the game as possible to arrive at a result. It also has a clear definition of the minimum amount of play that has to be achieved to constitute a match. Extrapolating a cricket match to a football season something along those lines could be developed to say if we lost x weeks/months we lose y games from the end of the fixture list. Will never happen though. Football is stuck in the dark ages and the clubs have their heads up their arses. Cricket is a completely different sport. The D/L method doesn't apply to a whole season, just to individual matches. And it's in order to make it fair. If team A gets x overs, then team B should also get x overs to attempt to reach the required amount of runs. If team B can't get that many overs, their target needs to be amended in some way and that's why the D/L method exists. That's completely different from football so the comparison doesn't work. Also, cricket records all cancelled games as automatic draws which can massively skew a season. That will never be accepted in football. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Left Back Posted March 10, 2021 Share Posted March 10, 2021 28 minutes ago, Marten said: Cricket is a completely different sport. The D/L method doesn't apply to a whole season, just to individual matches. And it's in order to make it fair. If team A gets x overs, then team B should also get x overs to attempt to reach the required amount of runs. If team B can't get that many overs, their target needs to be amended in some way and that's why the D/L method exists. That's completely different from football so the comparison doesn't work. Also, cricket records all cancelled games as automatic draws which can massively skew a season. That will never be accepted in football. Are you deliberately misunderstanding? I never mentioned amended targets because it wouldn't be relevant here. I was talking purely about a formula for the number of games that can be played if the season is disrupted. I used it as an example of how things could be worked out and made explicit prior to the season starting. I never said football should adopt an exact replica of D/L 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Moonster Posted March 10, 2021 Share Posted March 10, 2021 Just now, Left Back said: Are you deliberately misunderstanding? I never mentioned amended targets because it wouldn't be relevant here. I was talking purely about a formula for the number of games that can be played if the season is disrupted. I used it as an example of how things could be worked out and made explicit prior to the season starting. I never said football should adopt an exact replica of D/L PPG? -1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gordon EF Posted March 10, 2021 Share Posted March 10, 2021 2 hours ago, The Moonster said: PPG? It's not a completely unreasonable system to just go straight up PPG but there are better ways to do it if you know at the beginning that there could be a disruption. I think the important thing that we missed back in the autumn was that agreeing something before it came to the point where clubs knew what situation they'd be in was far more preferable to leaving it until now where every club is incentivised to favour different options that suit the particular circumstance they find themselves in. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Moonster Posted March 10, 2021 Share Posted March 10, 2021 6 minutes ago, Gordon EF said: It's not a completely unreasonable system to just go straight up PPG but there are better ways to do it if you know at the beginning that there could be a disruption. I think the important thing that we missed back in the autumn was that agreeing something before it came to the point where clubs knew what situation they'd be in was far more preferable to leaving it until now where every club is incentivised to favour different options that suit the particular circumstance they find themselves in. I totally agree, I said at the time it was ridiculous that clubs never put anything in place after the shambles we went through calling the previous season. Clubs didn't want to commit precisely because of this situation, they knew if nothing was agreed they could just argue whatever suits them at the time and dress it up as "the right thing to do". Committing to calling it on PPG if we were ever halted again in the autumn would've seen Forfar relegated already, hence the mewling from their brass necked chairman. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RossBFaeDundee Posted March 10, 2021 Share Posted March 10, 2021 Alan Rough on the PLZ show saying all League One and League Two teams agreed in a meeting yesterday that they wanted to proceed with 22 games, and have submitted it to the to SPFL for confirmation. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wulliemc Posted March 11, 2021 Share Posted March 11, 2021 A variation of PPG where weighting can be applied relevant to which teams you have or haven’t faced could work.If you are second in league having played one game less than the top team but the missing game is against the bottom team it is more likely to yield points than if it was against the team in third 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blueone Posted March 12, 2021 Share Posted March 12, 2021 We're back playing. Just don't know how many games. https://spfl.co.uk/news/league-1-2-fixture-update 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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