1320Lichtie Posted April 3, 2021 Share Posted April 3, 2021 39 minutes ago, 19QOS19 said: 44 minutes ago, clashcityrocker said: Loving these graphic posts which peeps are posting -great to see some humour on these forums. So, Morton, Ayr and Arbroath now all in the mix for the relegation play offs. C'mon the 'broath. We're not out the woods yet either. By the end of our next game we could potentially be 8th spot 2 point in front of 9th. It would take some mental results for that to be the case but this league has thrown up more than few crazy results this season so wouldn't back against it happening. Nah you’s are good. I know it’s all ifs and buts but the 92nd minute equaliser from Alloa at theirs a few weeks ago and losing from being 2-0 up v you is really hitting home the now. Also of course the absolutely stinking start to the season. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayrunitedfw Posted April 3, 2021 Share Posted April 3, 2021 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vikingTON Posted April 3, 2021 Author Share Posted April 3, 2021 42 minutes ago, 19QOS19 said: 48 minutes ago, clashcityrocker said: We're not out the woods yet either. By the end of our next game we could potentially be 8th spot 2 point in front of 9th. It would take some mental results for that to be the case but this league has thrown up more than few crazy results this season so wouldn't back against it happening. If it weren't for the win at Tynecastle last week then you'd be in trouble. That combined with any deserved/spawny win over the run-in will probably be enough. Alloa might be gone by the time we play them with two games to go, which would be good for us, but Hearts are inexplicably slithering towards wrapping up the title at Cappielow, which is not. Having to move that game back to midweek for our cup tie will hopefully be enough to hand them the league by default. I think that we're marginal favourites to finish 9th as it stands but a win on Tuesday night would change that significantly. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
farflung lichtie Posted April 3, 2021 Share Posted April 3, 2021 Shite away day as well And yet it’s one of my favourites and handy too 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smokerson Posted April 3, 2021 Share Posted April 3, 2021 Confident we can win both home games but feel that might still not be enough, may need to pick up a further win at Raith or Dunfermline. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RossBFaeDundee Posted April 3, 2021 Share Posted April 3, 2021 54 minutes ago, Smokerson said: may need to pick up a further win at Raith or Dunfermline. If you could beat both of them that would be cracking, cheers 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wuffster Posted April 3, 2021 Share Posted April 3, 2021 Pie in a roll though.The perfect delivery system. Why it is not the default is beyond me (caveat: consistently good rolls are hard to find). 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunning1874 Posted April 4, 2021 Share Posted April 4, 2021 (edited) Remaining fixtures: Ayr - Dundee (H), Dunfermline (H), Arbroath (A), Queen of the South (H), ICT (A) Morton - ICT (H), Dundee (A), Hearts (H), Alloa (H), Arbroath (A) Arbroath - Raith (A), Ayr (H), Dunfermline (A), Morton (H) Alloa - Hearts (A), Raith (H), Morton (A), Dunfermline (H) Alloa getting to 9th from here would be sensational. Even nine points from that would require Morton or Arbroath to only take one point from their remaining games or Ayr to lose every game. Even with Morton and Ayr having a game in hand, Arbroath have a decent looking run-in. Raith is tough but a faltering Dunfermline away and their two relegation rivals at home present three winnable games. I was holding out hope that we could get ourselves into a position where we could go up to Arbroath on the last day not needing a result, but that's not going to happen. You don't look at any of our next three as an obvious opportunity for three points, but if we don't find a win in those it's feasible that we'll be going into the last two needing six points. Hopefully Hearts have finally concluded the tedious process of winning the title before we play them. If Ayr can't get themselves safe before the last day, that's not a nice place to go needing a result. Edited April 4, 2021 by Dunning1874 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trogdor Posted April 4, 2021 Share Posted April 4, 2021 (edited) @Dunning1874 Good summary, we're at home to Dunfermline though. I know this as it's the game I think we are most likely to win given Dunfermline have turned boaby. We simply have to beat Arbroath at Gayfield. Even a draw and I think we go into a last game with the playoff trapdoor being a distinct possibility. As you say, Arbroath have the better run in as they play both of us. It's in their hands as it were. Beat both of us and they are safe. How many points for safety? Is 30 the consensus? I'm not sure that'll be enough. Edited April 4, 2021 by Trogdor 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunning1874 Posted April 4, 2021 Share Posted April 4, 2021 So you are, updated that. Yeah generally you'd have thought 30 should be safe and 32 definitely would be, but it wouldn't take an especially crazy set of results for all three to hit 32 from here. Ayr win two of their three home games, Morton win one and lose two of their next three then beat Alloa and draw with Arbroath, Arbroath beat Ayr and Dunfermline before that draw with Morton. Dunfermline, ICT & QOS are still safe though. None of them are losing every game for the rest of the season, and while it's not unrealistic that a collapse in form could see one of the three in 7th-9th catch any of them, all three of them overhauling the gap in 4/5 games isn't going to happen when the relegation battlers are playing each other. The odds of one of the teams in 4th-6th only taking 0-2 points for the rest of the season and results letting all the 7th-9th sides reach 31-32 must be outrageously long. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No_Problemo Posted April 4, 2021 Share Posted April 4, 2021 1 hour ago, Dunning1874 said: So you are, updated that. Yeah generally you'd have thought 30 should be safe and 32 definitely would be, but it wouldn't take an especially crazy set of results for all three to hit 32 from here. Ayr win two of their three home games, Morton win one and lose two of their next three then beat Alloa and draw with Arbroath, Arbroath beat Ayr and Dunfermline before that draw with Morton. Dunfermline, ICT & QOS are still safe though. None of them are losing every game for the rest of the season, and while it's not unrealistic that a collapse in form could see one of the three in 7th-9th catch any of them, all three of them overhauling the gap in 4/5 games isn't going to happen when the relegation battlers are playing each other. The odds of one of the teams in 4th-6th only taking 0-2 points for the rest of the season and results letting all the 7th-9th sides reach 31-32 must be outrageously long. I wouldn’t be confident at hitting 32 points at all. Looking at our fixtures I was thinking we need to get seven points and get to 33 points. Arbroath and Morton would then need to get nine points - not impossible either though. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
D'Jaffo Posted April 4, 2021 Share Posted April 4, 2021 That Arbroath game is giving me the fucking fear. If we get two draws from our next two games that could really be enough depending on what Morton and Arbroath do. Although Dundee and Dunfermline are two teams that really haven’t troubled us at all this season so a win in one of them isn’t unlikely. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjc-1988 Posted April 4, 2021 Share Posted April 4, 2021 So you are, updated that. Yeah generally you'd have thought 30 should be safe and 32 definitely would be, but it wouldn't take an especially crazy set of results for all three to hit 32 from here. Ayr win two of their three home games, Morton win one and lose two of their next three then beat Alloa and draw with Arbroath, Arbroath beat Ayr and Dunfermline before that draw with Morton. Dunfermline, ICT & QOS are still safe though. None of them are losing every game for the rest of the season, and while it's not unrealistic that a collapse in form could see one of the three in 7th-9th catch any of them, all three of them overhauling the gap in 4/5 games isn't going to happen when the relegation battlers are playing each other. The odds of one of the teams in 4th-6th only taking 0-2 points for the rest of the season and results letting all the 7th-9th sides reach 31-32 must be outrageously long. I can see why you think QOS are safe and it would take a notable collapse (even by our standards) for us to threaten 9th place but Arbroath’s late winner on Sat just left the trap door open..........a little!!! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
19QOS19 Posted April 4, 2021 Share Posted April 4, 2021 I won't relax until it's mathematically impossible for us to go down. The only predictable thing about this season is Hearts winning the title. Even then they are making it hard for themselves. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TxRover Posted April 4, 2021 Share Posted April 4, 2021 2 hours ago, 19QOS19 said: I won't relax until it's mathematically impossible for us to go down. The only predictable thing about this season is Hearts winning the title. Even then they are making it hard for themselves. Four more ties, and their GD pretty much locks it... I still think 30 points holds eighth...but it’ll be a near thing. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Flash Posted April 5, 2021 Share Posted April 5, 2021 15 hours ago, Rjc-1988 said: I can see why you think QOS are safe and it would take a notable collapse (even by our standards) for us to threaten 9th place but Arbroath’s late winner on Sat just left the trap door open..........a little!!! Our problem is that we are still far too easy to score against. Every team in the league has scored 2 goals against us in at least one game. There was a period in February where we conceded 1 goal in 3 games v Hearts, ICT and Dunfermline but it reverted to a minimum of 2 goals a game in the whole of March. If we keep that up, all that needs to happen for us to be in trouble is for us to have 4 or 5 games where we don’t score twice. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TxRover Posted April 5, 2021 Share Posted April 5, 2021 (edited) Optimal chaotic (for the league) results would, of course, be Ayr and Morton winning, despite it leaving Arbroath more adrift. A loss by both Ayr and Morton puts the pressure on the Pars at the top and leaves QoS able to breathe easier regardless of their result. Later this week, and Alloa win and an Arbroath loss would induce much wailing at both ends of the table, so another nice thing to hope for...especially for Ayr and Morton (maybe not the Alloa win though). Irregardless, come 5PM Saturday, things will be significantly clearer at the bottom, and possibly at the top...which is why we so enjoy the horror that is Scottish football. All that being said, I think Arbroath are in the truly hard spot here, with a loss at Raith probably consigning them to, at best, a bitter last day struggle versus Morton to avoid the playoffs. I must also admit being flabbergasted at not having Raith in this conversation given the tightness of the league this year. It does also say something that VT’s relegation competitor selections, three months later, really simply need Ayr replacing Dundee to be spot on...so while the league is tight, form seems to be holding from the early round. Edited April 5, 2021 by TxRover 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjc-1988 Posted April 5, 2021 Share Posted April 5, 2021 Our problem is that we are still far too easy to score against. Every team in the league has scored 2 goals against us in at least one game. There was a period in February where we conceded 1 goal in 3 games v Hearts, ICT and Dunfermline but it reverted to a minimum of 2 goals a game in the whole of March. If we keep that up, all that needs to happen for us to be in trouble is for us to have 4 or 5 games where we don’t score twice.Looking at our fixtures we could very easily fail to record any wins in the 5 games and possibly only pick up the odd draw in which case things would get very tight indeed. The other results may be kind to us - lots of draws would not hurt us. The strong probability is that we are very nearly safe but it is certainly not a given. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stan3600 Posted April 5, 2021 Share Posted April 5, 2021 Optimal chaotic (for the league) results would, of course, be Ayr and Morton winning, despite it leaving Arbroath more adrift. A loss by both Ayr and Morton puts the pressure on the Pars at the top and leaves QoS able to breathe easier regardless of their result. Later this week, and Alloa win and an Arbroath loss would induce much wailing at both ends of the table, so another nice thing to hope for...especially for Ayr and Morton (maybe not the Alloa win though). Irregardless, come 5PM Saturday, things will be significantly clearer at the bottom, and possibly at the top...which is why we so enjoy the horror that is Scottish football. All that being said, I think Arbroath are in the truly hard spot here, with a loss at Raith probably consigning them to, at best, a bitter last day struggle versus Morton to avoid the playoffs. I must also admit being flabbergasted at not having Raith in this conversation given the tightness of the league this year. It does also say something that VT’s relegation competitor selections, three months later, really simply need Ayr replacing Dundee to be spot on...so while the league is tight, form seems to be holding from the early round.What? 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunning1874 Posted April 6, 2021 Share Posted April 6, 2021 James McPake could have a big impact this week. Is he going to put Dundee's strongest team on the park in both games or unnecessarily overhaul the lineup, as he's prone to doing for no apparent reason, handing Ayr or Morton a great chance for an unexpected win? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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