Jump to content

The Relegation Dogfight


The Relegation Dogfight  

320 members have voted

You do not have permission to vote in this poll, or see the poll results. Please sign in or register to vote in this poll.

Recommended Posts

39 minutes ago, 19QOS19 said:
44 minutes ago, clashcityrocker said:
Loving these graphic posts which peeps are posting -great to see some humour on these forums.
So, Morton, Ayr and Arbroath now all in the mix for the relegation play offs.
C'mon the 'broath.

We're not out the woods yet either. By the end of our next game we could potentially be 8th spot 2 point in front of 9th. It would take some mental results for that to be the case but this league has thrown up more than few crazy results this season so wouldn't back against it happening.

Nah you’s are good. I know it’s all ifs and buts but the 92nd minute equaliser from Alloa at theirs a few weeks ago and losing from being 2-0 up v you is really hitting home the now. Also of course the absolutely stinking start to the season. 
 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

42 minutes ago, 19QOS19 said:
48 minutes ago, clashcityrocker said:

 

We're not out the woods yet either. By the end of our next game we could potentially be 8th spot 2 point in front of 9th. It would take some mental results for that to be the case but this league has thrown up more than few crazy results this season so wouldn't back against it happening.

If it weren't for the win at Tynecastle last week then you'd be in trouble. That combined with any deserved/spawny win over the run-in will probably be enough.

Alloa might be gone by the time we play them with two games to go, which would be good for us, but Hearts are inexplicably slithering towards wrapping up the title at Cappielow, which is not. Having to move that game back to midweek for our cup tie will hopefully be enough to hand them the league by default. 

I think that we're marginal favourites to finish 9th as it stands but a win on Tuesday night would change that significantly. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Remaining fixtures: 

Ayr - Dundee (H), Dunfermline (H), Arbroath (A), Queen of the South (H), ICT (A)

Morton - ICT (H), Dundee (A), Hearts (H), Alloa (H), Arbroath (A)

Arbroath - Raith (A), Ayr (H), Dunfermline (A), Morton (H)

Alloa - Hearts (A), Raith (H), Morton (A), Dunfermline (H)

Alloa getting to 9th from here would be sensational. Even nine points from that would require Morton or Arbroath to only take one point from their remaining games or Ayr to lose every game.

Even with Morton and Ayr having a game in hand, Arbroath have a decent looking run-in. Raith is tough but a faltering Dunfermline away and their two relegation rivals at home present three winnable games.

I was holding out hope that we could get ourselves into a position where we could go up to Arbroath on the last day not needing a result, but that's not going to happen. You don't look at any of our next three as an obvious opportunity for three points, but if we don't find a win in those it's feasible that we'll be going into the last two needing six points. Hopefully Hearts have finally concluded the tedious process of winning the title before we play them.

If Ayr can't get themselves safe before the last day, that's not a nice place to go needing a result.

Edited by Dunning1874
Link to comment
Share on other sites

@Dunning1874

Good summary, we're at home to Dunfermline though. I know this as it's the game I think we are most likely to win given Dunfermline have turned boaby. We simply have to beat Arbroath at Gayfield. Even a draw and I think we go into a last game with the playoff trapdoor being a distinct possibility.

As you say, Arbroath have the better run in as they play both of us. It's in their hands as it were. Beat both of us and they are safe.

How many points for safety? Is 30 the consensus? I'm not sure that'll be enough.

Edited by Trogdor
Link to comment
Share on other sites

So you are, updated that.

Yeah generally you'd have thought 30 should be safe and 32 definitely would be, but it wouldn't take an especially crazy set of results for all three to hit 32 from here. Ayr win two of their three home games, Morton win one and lose two of their next three then beat Alloa and draw with Arbroath, Arbroath beat Ayr and Dunfermline before that draw with Morton.

Dunfermline, ICT & QOS are still safe though. None of them are losing every game for the rest of the season, and while it's not unrealistic that a collapse in form could see one of the three in 7th-9th catch any of them, all three of them overhauling the gap in 4/5 games isn't going to happen when the relegation battlers are playing each other. The odds of one of the teams in 4th-6th only taking 0-2 points for the rest of the season and results letting all the 7th-9th sides reach 31-32 must be outrageously long. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Dunning1874 said:

So you are, updated that.

Yeah generally you'd have thought 30 should be safe and 32 definitely would be, but it wouldn't take an especially crazy set of results for all three to hit 32 from here. Ayr win two of their three home games, Morton win one and lose two of their next three then beat Alloa and draw with Arbroath, Arbroath beat Ayr and Dunfermline before that draw with Morton.

Dunfermline, ICT & QOS are still safe though. None of them are losing every game for the rest of the season, and while it's not unrealistic that a collapse in form could see one of the three in 7th-9th catch any of them, all three of them overhauling the gap in 4/5 games isn't going to happen when the relegation battlers are playing each other. The odds of one of the teams in 4th-6th only taking 0-2 points for the rest of the season and results letting all the 7th-9th sides reach 31-32 must be outrageously long. 

I wouldn’t be confident at hitting 32 points at all. Looking at our fixtures I was thinking we need to get seven points and get to 33 points. 
Arbroath and Morton would then need to get nine points - not impossible either though.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

That Arbroath game is giving me the fucking fear. If we get two draws from our next two games that could really be enough depending on what Morton and Arbroath do. Although Dundee and Dunfermline are two teams that really haven’t troubled us at all this season so a win in one of them isn’t unlikely.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

So you are, updated that.
Yeah generally you'd have thought 30 should be safe and 32 definitely would be, but it wouldn't take an especially crazy set of results for all three to hit 32 from here. Ayr win two of their three home games, Morton win one and lose two of their next three then beat Alloa and draw with Arbroath, Arbroath beat Ayr and Dunfermline before that draw with Morton.
Dunfermline, ICT & QOS are still safe though. None of them are losing every game for the rest of the season, and while it's not unrealistic that a collapse in form could see one of the three in 7th-9th catch any of them, all three of them overhauling the gap in 4/5 games isn't going to happen when the relegation battlers are playing each other. The odds of one of the teams in 4th-6th only taking 0-2 points for the rest of the season and results letting all the 7th-9th sides reach 31-32 must be outrageously long. 


I can see why you think QOS are safe and it would take a notable collapse (even by our standards) for us to threaten 9th place but Arbroath’s late winner on Sat just left the trap door open..........a little!!!
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I won't relax until it's mathematically impossible for us to go down. The only predictable thing about this season is Hearts winning the title. Even then they are making it hard for themselves.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, 19QOS19 said:

I won't relax until it's mathematically impossible for us to go down. The only predictable thing about this season is Hearts winning the title. Even then they are making it hard for themselves.

Four more ties, and their GD pretty much locks it...

I still think 30 points holds eighth...but it’ll be a near thing.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest Flash
15 hours ago, Rjc-1988 said:


I can see why you think QOS are safe and it would take a notable collapse (even by our standards) for us to threaten 9th place but Arbroath’s late winner on Sat just left the trap door open..........a little!!!

 

Our problem is that we are still far too easy to score against. Every team in the league has scored 2 goals against us in at least one game. There was a period in February where we conceded 1 goal in 3 games v Hearts, ICT and Dunfermline but it reverted to a minimum of 2 goals a game in the whole of March.
If we keep that up, all that needs to happen for us to be in trouble is for us to have 4 or 5 games where we don’t score twice.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Optimal chaotic (for the league) results would, of course, be Ayr and Morton winning, despite it leaving Arbroath more adrift. A loss by both Ayr and Morton puts the pressure on the Pars at the top and leaves QoS able to breathe easier regardless of their result. Later this week, and Alloa win and an Arbroath loss would induce much wailing at both ends of the table, so another nice thing to hope for...especially for Ayr and Morton (maybe not the Alloa win though).

Irregardless, come 5PM Saturday, things will be significantly clearer at the bottom, and possibly at the top...which is why we so enjoy the horror that is Scottish football.

All that being said, I think Arbroath are in the truly hard spot here, with a loss at Raith probably consigning them to, at best, a bitter last day struggle versus Morton to avoid the playoffs. I must also admit being flabbergasted at not having Raith in this conversation given the tightness of the league this year. It does also say something that VT’s relegation competitor selections, three months later, really simply need Ayr replacing Dundee to be spot on...so while the league is tight, form seems to be holding from the early round.

Edited by TxRover
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Our problem is that we are still far too easy to score against. Every team in the league has scored 2 goals against us in at least one game. There was a period in February where we conceded 1 goal in 3 games v Hearts, ICT and Dunfermline but it reverted to a minimum of 2 goals a game in the whole of March.
If we keep that up, all that needs to happen for us to be in trouble is for us to have 4 or 5 games where we don’t score twice.


Looking at our fixtures we could very easily fail to record any wins in the 5 games and possibly only pick up the odd draw in which case things would get very tight indeed. The other results may be kind to us - lots of draws would not hurt us. The strong probability is that we are very nearly safe but it is certainly not a given.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Optimal chaotic (for the league) results would, of course, be Ayr and Morton winning, despite it leaving Arbroath more adrift. A loss by both Ayr and Morton puts the pressure on the Pars at the top and leaves QoS able to breathe easier regardless of their result. Later this week, and Alloa win and an Arbroath loss would induce much wailing at both ends of the table, so another nice thing to hope for...especially for Ayr and Morton (maybe not the Alloa win though).
Irregardless, come 5PM Saturday, things will be significantly clearer at the bottom, and possibly at the top...which is why we so enjoy the horror that is Scottish football.
All that being said, I think Arbroath are in the truly hard spot here, with a loss at Raith probably consigning them to, at best, a bitter last day struggle versus Morton to avoid the playoffs. I must also admit being flabbergasted at not having Raith in this conversation given the tightness of the league this year. It does also say something that VT’s relegation competitor selections, three months later, really simply need Ayr replacing Dundee to be spot on...so while the league is tight, form seems to be holding from the early round.

What?
Link to comment
Share on other sites

James McPake could have a big impact this week. Is he going to put Dundee's strongest team on the park in both games or unnecessarily overhaul the lineup, as he's prone to doing for no apparent reason, handing Ayr or Morton a great chance for an unexpected win?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...