The Relegation Dogfight

[Distant Doonhamer]

2 minutes ago, stan3600 said:

Alternatively, two wins for you and you could, possibly, clinch a top 4 finish.

Theoretically possible but given our dismal goal difference even if we beat Ayr and Dundee, ICT need only 3 points from 3 games and Dunfermline 1 point from 2 games to lock a door that is in reality already closed.

[TxRover]

30 minutes ago, Distant Doonhamer said:

Still understandable that QOS fans explore the worst case scenarios though.

Transitional Scottish football fan behavior/incantation, if you replace QoS with any other (team name).

[itzdrk]

A lot of wasted hot air in here, this Ayr team are complete and utter losers, there is no hope they will get it together to pick up any more points. 

Our only hope is that our wonderful new manager was so bad at his last job that neither can they either. 

Edited April 20, 2021 by itzdrk

[Thumper]

So just to confirm the tory knicker-wetters calculus: with Morten's draw tonight, QOS can be relegated under the following circumstances:

1. Ayr beat them at Somerset on Saturday (lmao)
2. Morten beat Alloa
3. Arbroath get at least a point against Dunfermline

At that point, 6-9 in the table will either be 31/30/30/30 or 32/31/30/30.

QOS can then be relegated on the final day if all of the following are true:

1. They lose to Dundee
2. Arbroath-Morton is a draw and
3. Ayr pick up at least a point in Inverness (again, lmao)

By far the most likely scenario at this point though is that Ayr pick up as many point from their remaining two games as Fathers Jack Crilly and Dougall McGuire picked up at Eurovision, QOS are safe before the last day, and the Arbroath-Morton game is irrelevant given that both clubs started the day above Ayr.

Edited April 20, 2021 by Thumper

[Paisley Ton]

Well that draw gives us another half life.

Win on Saturday and Ayr drawing or losing to Queens and the final Friday game may just be watchable from the sofa.

[Monkey Tennis]

21 hours ago, Thumper said:

So just to confirm the tory knicker-wetters calculus: with Morten's draw tonight, QOS can be relegated under the following circumstances:

1. Ayr beat them at Somerset on Saturday (lmao)
2. Morten beat Alloa
3. Arbroath get at least a point against Dunfermline

At that point, 6-9 in the table will either be 31/30/30/30 or 32/31/30/30.

QOS can then be relegated on the final day if all of the following are true:

1. They lose to Dundee
2. Arbroath-Morton is a draw and
3. Ayr pick up at least a point in Inverness (again, lmao)

By far the most likely scenario at this point though is that Ayr pick up as many point from their remaining two games as Fathers Jack Crilly and Dougall McGuire picked up at Eurovision, QOS are safe before the last day, and the Arbroath-Morton game is irrelevant given that both clubs started the day above Ayr.

The only people the above looks implausible to, are Ayr supporters.

Queens are absolutely capable of losing on  Saturday.  Should that happen, there's every chance we'll wind up 9th.

Edited April 21, 2021 by Monkey Tennis

[Colkitto]

Last 2 games run in

24th April

Ayr  v QotS - Will it be a different Ayr performance after the heavy criticism or will they crumble? Queens just need a point for safety 

Morton v Alloa - Has to be a home win

Dunfermline  v  Arbroath - Hard one for Arbroath as the Pars are chasing that playoff spot.

 

30th April

Arbroath v Morton - Possible draw

ICT v Ayr -  ICT on a bit of form. Can't see them losing this game as could still be in playoff spot 

QotS v Dundee - Queens might be in for a game if Dundee need the win

 

Every team has something to play for except Alloa.  

 

 

[Curmudgeon]

After their safety is secured on Saturday I'm looking forward to reading the queens fans' anxious posts about the possibility of being chucked out of the league in the event of aliens invading Dumfries or Palmerston Park being struck by a meteorite.

[19QOS19]

...or Palmerston Park being struck by a meteorite.

Hopefully. It'd make our pitch more playable at least.

[TxRover]

23 minutes ago, 19QOS19 said:

Hopefully. It'd make our pitch more playable at least.

 

Yea, but I’d be worried about Dobbie after what the last big meteorite did to the dinosaurs!

[Monkey Tennis]

1 hour ago, Curmudgeon said:

After their safety is secured on Saturday I'm looking forward to reading the queens fans' anxious posts about the possibility of being chucked out of the league in the event of aliens invading Dumfries or Palmerston Park being struck by a meteorite.

There is nothing remotely Irrational about our collective knicker wetting.  Nothing surprising would be necessary for us to enter the last day in danger of finishing up 9th.

I said a couple of weeks ago that I thought we were virtually safe and although I didn't want the theory tested,I felt that even if we took no more points, we'd be likely to survive.  I still think that's the case, but we are thus far putting it to the test, and it's far from certain.

[Guest Flash]

4 minutes ago, Monkey Tennis said:

There is nothing remotely Irrational about our collective knicker wetting.  Nothing surprising would be necessary for us to enter the last day in danger of finishing up 9th.

I said a couple of weeks ago that I thought we were virtually safe and although I didn't want the theory tested,I felt that even if we took no more points, we'd be likely to survive.  I still think that's the case, but we are thus far putting it to the test, and it's far from certain.

If all the people pointing and laughing at Queens fans had their own team in the same position, they would all be on saying the results required for them to finish 9th were so ridiculous, they could never happen and that their team was 100% safe. Aye, sure they would. 

[Monkey Tennis]

2 minutes ago, Flash said:

If all the people pointing and laughing at Queens fans had their own team in the same position, they would all be on saying the results required for them to finish 9th were so ridiculous, they could never happen and that their team was 100% safe. Aye, sure they would. 

Falkirk ones might, in fairness.

[TxRover]

24 minutes ago, Monkey Tennis said:

Falkirk ones might, in fairness.

Not if you looked at the Falkirk forums recently. After this season they might actually be wetting their knickers even more than Queens fans!

[jm86]

Probably already been mentioned by somebody, but I can't be bothered trawling through the whole thread. A not unlikely scenario on Saturday is that Ayr lose to QOS, while Arbroath draw with Dunfermline and Morton beat Alloa.  We would be on 27, Arbroath and Morton both on 30.  So  if Arbroath and Morton  draw in their last game they're both safe. A nice wee 0-0 anybody? The other 26 possible scenarios are too laborious to analyse. .

[TxRover]

15 minutes ago, jm86 said:

Probably already been mentioned by somebody, but I can't be bothered trawling through the whole thread. A not unlikely scenario on Saturday is that Ayr lose to QOS, while Arbroath draw with Dunfermline and Morton beat Alloa.  We would be on 27, Arbroath and Morton both on 30.  So  if Arbroath and Morton  draw in their last game they're both safe. A nice wee 0-0 anybody? The other 26 possible scenarios are too laborious to analyse. .

And they say the QoS fans are knicker wetters.

[jm86]

Been wearing the incontinence pads for weeks now. We'll lose our last 2 games anyway so the result at Gayfield hardly matters. But it would be of some mild interest to see Dick and Gus having a nice chinwag over a cuppa, occasionally shouting a coded message to any player who has lost the plot and looks like scoring. 

[TxRover]

4 hours ago, jm86 said:

Been wearing the incontinence pads for weeks now. We'll lose our last 2 games anyway so the result at Gayfield hardly matters. But it would be of some mild interest to see Dick and Gus having a nice chinwag over a cuppa, occasionally shouting a coded message to any player who has lost the plot and looks like scoring. 

The downside is that neither Arbroath nor Morton look to be full of players that can be relied upon to correctly execute a ham sandwich, let alone a plot to draw a match...and the results of a failure to properly ensure that exact result would be “adverse” to one side.

To be completely honest, with Ayr fighting for their lives versus QoS, I can see a draw rather than the QoS win that would be expected (except for by Queens fans)...which puts Queens safe at 32 and Ayr on 28. The Pars should roll Arbroath, and while Arbroath have been pretty salty lately, I suspect The Pars will deliver, leaving Arbroath not yet home on 29. Alloa will respond to Grant’s departure and piss on Morton’s parade, leaving Morton on 27.

Which would make the last “weekend” all the more fun. Ayr facing an ICT team that can likely still make the playoffs with a good showing, Morton having to have a win to stay out of the ninth spot because of inferior GD (if Ayr lose by less than five or so) , and Arbroath knowing a loss to Morton might consign them to ninth if Ayr pull one out...might make fun viewing! And in THIS case, the tie to both survive only applies if Ayr get plowed.

Opinion time, relegation odds:

Queens - 5%

Arbroath - 15%

Morton - 35%

Ayr - 45%

[madton]

If Alloa beat us, we are down. Can't see us going to Arbroath getting a win and that might not be enough depending on results this weekend. Can't see it happening though. We might struggle to score and a draw is certainly possible but we look pretty decent of late so would be surprised if Alloa beat us, particular with their away form being so poor 

Theres been loads of permutations this week, I'll be glad come Sat night when it becomes much clearer. Would love the scenario of Arbroath and us playing out a 0-0 to keep us both up and sitting back with a beer listening to Hopkins post match interview after they beat Inverness and still finish 9th...make it happen!

 

[Thumper]

11 hours ago, jm86 said:

Probably already been mentioned by somebody, but I can't be bothered trawling through the whole thread. A not unlikely scenario on Saturday is that Ayr lose to QOS, while Arbroath draw with Dunfermline and Morton beat Alloa.  We would be on 27, Arbroath and Morton both on 30.  So  if Arbroath and Morton  draw in their last game they're both safe. A nice wee 0-0 anybody? The other 26 possible scenarios are too laborious to analyse. .

If Ayr aren't ahead of both going into the last matchday then it's curtains. Ayr would be more likely to get a win at the Bernabeu than in Inverness.