The Relegation Dogfight

[Rob1885]

Ok... but I don’t think it’s irrelevant to say things like ‘if we lose to x, we deserve to go down’... somebody has to finish 9th and you’d hope it’s the 9th-worst team, the team that, at this stage, failed to take its chances to save itself.*
 
Spoiler

* So Ayr, basically

 

9th worst team should finish 2nd surely?

[Monkey Tennis]

48 minutes ago, lichtiekev said:

Queens fans embarrassing themselves, sitting 6th 4 points ahead of Ayr and 5 ahead of Morton of they loose to hearts,

I feel a bit embarrassed after reading that post right enough.

Vicariously embarrassed.

[San Starko Rover]

Massive win for Arbroath today, fancy them to now escape the dogfight with a straight shootout between Ayr and Morton for that 8th spot.

[farflung lichtie]

I’m delighted with that crucial, emphatic win today but we still have to get at least one more win, maybe 2 draws - to breathe more easily. All very diverting speculating on upcoming results but this is a very unpredictable league so maybe more combinations/options remaining. I seriously doubt Queens are in trouble....but the more the merrier. What happened to ‘taking one game at a time’?

given we were rock bottom and adrift for the first third of the season (sat on 2 points), I consider it nothing short of miraculous we’ve hauled ourselves into this situation but still worry whether fate might conspire to prevent us from completing a heroic escape.

[vikingTON]

Chances of finishing 9th in my book:

Queens 10% 

Arbroath 15%

Morton 35%

Ayr 40%

The fixtures are falling very kindly for us now - two teams and quite possibly Arbroath on the final day will have nothing significant to play for - but the points still have to be put on the board with the required quality. 

I wouldn't be surprised at all if we inexplicably (from the outside perspective) lost 0-3 to Alloa next week instead of getting a comfortable victory, but the task is at least perfectly clear for our squad now. If we can't finish above 9th from here then relegation would be unquestionably deserved. 

[Monkey Tennis]

10 minutes ago, virginton said:

Chances of finishing 9th in my book:

Queens 10% 

Arbroath 15%

Morton 35%

Ayr 40%

The fixtures are falling very kindly for us now - two teams and quite possibly Arbroath on the final day will have nothing significant to play for - but the points still have to be put on the board with the required quality. 

I wouldn't be surprised at all if we inexplicably (from the outside perspective) lost 0-3 to Alloa next week instead of getting a comfortable victory, but the task is at least perfectly clear for our squad now. If we can't finish above 9th from here then relegation would be unquestionably deserved. 

From our point of view, your game with Hearts looks significant.

Take something there and beating Alloa could set up a situation where a cosy draw with Arbroath could suit you both, over us and/or Ayr.  If you beat Hearts, I think that 10% figure for us would urgently need revised.

[vikingTON]

Queens' win at Tynecastle is the only thing preventing an even three-way brawl so it would be only fair if Hearts made good the damage by slipping to another insipid defeat midweek. 

[Ro Sham Bo]

On 16/04/2021 at 14:43, Flash said:

Quite funny but it isn’t accurate.
Arbroath don’t specifically need to beat Ayr and draw with Morton. That would only give them 4 points anyway. They could beat Ayr and Dunfermline, then lose to Morton to get 6.
Morton wouldn’t need to go undefeated. They could lose to Hearts, then beat Alloa and Arbroath to get 6. Arbroath would also get 6 if they beat Ayr and Dunfermline. Or Morton could beat Hearts and Alloa then lose to Arbroath. If that happened, Arbroath would only need to draw with Ayr and Dunfermline.
Ayr would get the required 4 points by beating us and drawing with ICT if they lost to Arbroath. If they drew with Arbroath, the could lose to ICT if they beat us.
So, the middle 3 mental gymnastics aren’t right. The last one is spot on, though.

 

So basically, QoS are down? 

[San Starko Rover]

Queens' win at Tynecastle is the only thing preventing an even three-way brawl so it would be only fair if Hearts made good the damage by slipping to another insipid defeat midweek. 

Interesting to see how Hearts perform midweek, they’ve nothin to play for will they be on holiday mode or will Nielsen be out to win as many as possible to cover up his average season (by Hearts standards)

[stan3600]

I’ve had a word with my Jambo friends and explained that since we won the league for them they owe us.

[madton]

6 minutes ago, San Starko Rover said:

 

Interesting to see how Hearts perform midweek, they’ve nothin to play for will they be on holiday mode or will Nielsen be out to win as many as possible to cover up his average season (by Hearts standards)

 

Bit annoyed it's on TV, could play a small part in the Heart's players mentality to put on a performance.

No reason we can't get something following decent performances against Dundee and Motherwell.

[TxRover]

4 hours ago, virginton said:

I wouldn't be surprised at all if we inexplicably (from the outside perspective) lost 0-3 to Alloa next week...

Alloa has been one of the truly bizarre cases this year, with a team that looks absolutely competitive time and time again falling short. They could easily tuck it together and hump you, or they might simply fall apart, I just have no idea...and neither does Peter Grant, which seems to be their problem.

[San Starko Rover]

The more I look at the table and remaining fixtures the more I think Ayr Utd absolutely have to get something against Queen of the South or they’re destined for the playoffs. Needing something away to ICT when they’re likely fighting for the promotion playoffs is a big ask. Can’t see Ayr and Morton catching Queens. Arbroath’s win was massive today, not safe but not much needed. Could we see the Arbroath v Morton game being a kick about for both teams to stay safe?

[Jamie_M]

1 hour ago, stan3600 said:

I’ve had a word with my Jambo friends and explained that since we won the league for them they owe us.

I’ve had a word with my Jambo friends and explained that since we won the league for them they owe us.

[Arbroath36.0!]

Exactly how I voted.

Well that aint happened anyways....

[Paisley Ton]

On 10/04/2021 at 18:25, Trogdor said:

Those predictions are what give me the fucking fear! We simply have to win at Arbroath.

The only positive is our goal difference advantage. However, the margins are wafer thin. Morton weren't far off being 1 point in front of us today. 

It is squeaky bum time!

Ayr - One life down.

[TxRover]

19 hours ago, San Starko Rover said:

The more I look at the table and remaining fixtures the more I think Ayr Utd absolutely have to get something against Queen of the South or they’re destined for the playoffs. Needing something away to ICT when they’re likely fighting for the promotion playoffs is a big ask. Can’t see Ayr and Morton catching Queens. Arbroath’s win was massive today, not safe but not much needed. Could we see the Arbroath v Morton game being a kick about for both teams to stay safe?

Agree on Ayr, except they really have to take the win vs QoS, a draw would likely not be sufficient. Morton’s result versus Hearts will be a huge influence on what happens...if Hearts elect to play a reserve/young side and/or Morton show up properly, Ayr are truly in the shite without a win verses Queens. If, as expected, Morton get nothing from Hearts, the Alloa verses Morton game becomes quite interesting. A win there, combined with a loss by Arbroath versus The Pars, leaves Morton and Arbroath potentially even on points and near even on GD going into a final match day tilt. That would leave the final day Ayr game versus ICT as the possibility of causing a three way tie for seventh with a win if Arbroath and Morton draw, if Ayr took the points from Queens and lost to ICT. That might lead to the kick about suggested above, depending on the GD’s involved.

For Queens fans, the TL’DR is Queens is OK, while Ayr may be well and truly f**ked.

[Monkey Tennis]

1 hour ago, TxRover said:

Agree on Ayr, except they really have to take the win vs QoS, a draw would likely not be sufficient. Morton’s result versus Hearts will be a huge influence on what happens...if Hearts elect to play a reserve/young side and/or Morton show up properly, Ayr are truly in the shite without a win verses Queens. If, as expected, Morton get nothing from Hearts, the Alloa verses Morton game becomes quite interesting. A win there, combined with a loss by Arbroath versus The Pars, leaves Morton and Arbroath potentially even on points and near even on GD going into a final match day tilt. That would leave the final day Ayr game versus ICT as the possibility of causing a three way tie for seventh with a win if Arbroath and Morton draw, if Ayr took the points from Queens and lost to ICT. That might lead to the kick about suggested above, depending on the GD’s involved.

For Queens fans, the TL’DR is Queens is OK, while Ayr may be well and truly f**ked.

If Morton lose to Hearts, they can't get above us without beating Arbroath, which would obviously be damaging for them.  If they draw though, it's conceivable that a draw between the sides would be enough to be above us, if Arbroath get something at Dunfermline.  

I think there's every chance that we'll go into the last day far from ok, if we lose at Ayr.

[Distant Doonhamer]

On 18/04/2021 at 19:40, Monkey Tennis said:

If Morton lose to Hearts, they can't get above us without beating Arbroath, which would obviously be damaging for them.  If they draw though, it's conceivable that a draw between the sides would be enough to be above us, if Arbroath get something at Dunfermline.  

I think there's every chance that we'll go into the last day far from ok, if we lose at Ayr.

Lots of ways to look at this. If Hearts win tonight at Morton and Arbroath don't win at Dunfermline on Saturday then given Arbroath still have to play Morton we'll officially be fine.

Of course a single point at Ayr on Saturday makes us safe in any case.

Even if Ayr beat us and we also lose to Dundee they still need a point at ICT to catch us. If we draw with Dundee Ayr would need a win at Inverness to finish higher than us.

I remain firmly in the hopeful with marginal concern camp.

I doubt there are many, if any, fans of other clubs who think we'll finish 9th. Still understandable that QOS fans explore the worst case scenarios though.

Edited April 20, 2021 by Distant Doonhamer

[stan3600]

Lots of ways to look at this. If Hearts win tonight at Morton and Arbroath don't win at Dunfermline on Saturday then given Arbroath still have to play Morton we'll officially be fine.
Of course a single point at Ayr on Saturday makes us safe in any case.
Even if Ayr beat us and we also lose to Dundee they still need a point at ICT to catch us. If we draw with Dundee Ayr would need a win at Inverness to finish higher than us.
I remain firmly in the hopeful with marginal concern camp.
I doubt there are many, if any, fans of other clubs who think we'll finish 9th. Still understandable that QOS fans explore the worst case scenarios though.

Alternatively, two wins for you and you could, possibly, clinch a top 4 finish.