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The Relegation Dogfight


The Relegation Dogfight  

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9 minutes ago, Thumper said:

the only thing next saturday has going for it is that it'll finally shut up those QOS fans delusional enough to think they're worse than Ayr.

Queens have won once at Ayr in the League in the last 5 visits and one draw. Ayr have won thrice.

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Trying to be optimistic in the face of such dire form and I think we (Queens) probably already have enough points but our goal difference gives me doubts. A draw at Somerset Park next week and we are fine. I don't want to see us needing anything on the final day of the season against Dundee.

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6 minutes ago, Monkey Tennis said:

Yes, but we're not actually finding points that easy to come by right now.

Sure, but Morton need five, Ayr need four, and even Arbroath still need a couple...

I said before the game that losing to Dunfermline would put you in it... but your route out is still the most straightforward.

Ayr fans will be along in a moment to tell you, with some justification, that if you can't avoid defeat against them, you deserve to go down.

[Edited to say (repeat): if you could scud Ayr 4-0, that would be much appreciated.]

Edited by The Ghost of B A R P
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4 minutes ago, JessieField said:

Queens have won once at Ayr in the League in the last 5 visits and one draw. Ayr have won thrice.

you're four clear and Ayr's last game is in Inverness, where they haven't won in _nineteen years_. You're safe. Go and have a w**k or something.

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2 minutes ago, The Ghost of B A R P said:

Ayr fans will be along in a moment to tell you, with some justification, that if you can't avoid defeat against them, you deserve to go down.

That's really no comfort.

I'm not arguing that our plight is undeserved.

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3 minutes ago, Monkey Tennis said:

That's really no comfort.

I'm not arguing that our plight is undeserved.

Aye, but nobody watches QoS (or Morton) for 'comfort'...

If we can't beat a relegated Alloa at home next week, not one of our supporters will argue we haven't deserved to fall into the play-offs.

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28 minutes ago, JessieField said:

Queens are heading straight for the relegation playoffs. I say Morton will take at least a point off Hearts (they'll be in holiday mode now), Ayr WILL beat us next week, and Arbroath and Morton will conspire a draw between them. Goal difference (and that Alloa fiasco) will haunt us. 

Even if Morton take 4 points from the games with Hearts & Alloa then draw with Arbroath, and Arbroath have drawn with Dunfermline the week before, and Ayr beat Queen of the South, then you'd still need Ayr to take something away to ICT along with your defeat at home to Dundee.

None of this is impossible in isolation, but it's not remotely probable when you look at all the routes to safety for QoS. If Morton fail to take 4 points from Hearts & Alloa it means they'd need to beat Arbroath to catch Queens, so for both of them to do it Arbroath would need beat Dunfermline. Morton failing to reach 5 points is also entirely realistic. There's the obvious possibility that Ayr don't beat Queens anyway, then the likelihood that they don't take anything in Inverness.

Being concerned while it's still mathematically possible is understandable, but acting like you're somehow the favourites is insane. This is full on Dunfermline behaviour.

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23 minutes ago, Thumper said:

you're four clear and Ayr's last game is in Inverness, where they haven't won in _nineteen years_. You're safe. Go and have a w**k or something.

No way are Queens safe Ayr don't need to win in Inverness a draw would be enough after they beat us next week .

Arbroath will definitely ge at least  2 points from the last 2 games probable more .

Morton will  get at least  2 draws  and beat Alloa  .

All this means with Queens poor goal difference we will finish 9th 

The thing I am sure if is Queens are done for the season will not pick up another point going through the motions 

 

 

Edited by Northfield 53
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Aye, but nobody watches QoS (or Morton) for 'comfort'...
If we can't beat a relegated Alloa at home next week, not one of our supporters will argue we haven't deserved to fall into the play-offs.


Wouldn’t write Alloa off, they should have done us today and played some great football, even with 10 men they were unlucky to not come away with a draw.
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Just now, San Starko Rover said:

 


Wouldn’t write Alloa off, they should have done us today and played some great football, even with 10 men they were unlucky to not come away with a draw.

 

Not writing them off at all... but failing to beat them will very likely mean the play-offs... and no complaints.

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11 minutes ago, The Ghost of B A R P said:

Aye, but nobody watches QoS (or Morton) for 'comfort'...

If we can't beat a relegated Alloa at home next week, not one of our supporters will argue we haven't deserved to fall into the play-offs.

Ok.  What's your point?

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12 minutes ago, Dunning1874 said:

Even if Morton take 4 points from the games with Hearts & Alloa then draw with Arbroath, and Arbroath have drawn with Dunfermline the week before, and Ayr beat Queen of the South, then you'd still need Ayr to take something away to ICT along with your defeat at home to Dundee.

None of this is impossible in isolation, but it's not remotely probable when you look at all the routes to safety for QoS. If Morton fail to take 4 points from Hearts & Alloa it means they'd need to beat Arbroath to catch Queens, so for both of them to do it Arbroath would need beat Dunfermline. Morton failing to reach 5 points is also entirely realistic. There's the obvious possibility that Ayr don't beat Queens anyway, then the likelihood that they don't take anything in Inverness.

Being concerned while it's still mathematically possible is understandable, but acting like you're somehow the favourites is insane. This is full on Dunfermline behaviour.

We're definitely not favourites for 9th for the reasons you suggest.

However, what was a very long shot has definitely become much shorter.  We seem determined to uphold our part of the bargain.

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1 minute ago, Monkey Tennis said:

Ok.  What's your point?

That how ‘comfortable’ or otherwise you feel about the ongoing ‘relegation dogfight’ has no bearing on what happens?

You’re feeling nervous after a bad performance; but you’re still objectively the most likely team to survive.

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1 minute ago, The Ghost of B A R P said:

That how ‘comfortable’ or otherwise you feel about the ongoing ‘relegation dogfight’ has no bearing on what happens?

You’re feeling nervous after a bad performance; but you’re still objectively the most likely team to survive.

Yes, I know that.

I wasn't referring to 'comfort' as if it mattered.  I was pointing out that saying if we lose to Ayr, we'll deserve to go down, is is irrelevant as it is true.  Nobody is suggesting that there's anything unfair about our predicament, or those of the other sides involved.

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18 minutes ago, Dunning1874 said:

Even if Morton take 4 points from the games with Hearts & Alloa then draw with Arbroath, and Arbroath have drawn with Dunfermline the week before, and Ayr beat Queen of the South, then you'd still need Ayr to take something away to ICT along with your defeat at home to Dundee.

None of this is impossible in isolation, but it's not remotely probable when you look at all the routes to safety for QoS. If Morton fail to take 4 points from Hearts & Alloa it means they'd need to beat Arbroath to catch Queens, so for both of them to do it Arbroath would need beat Dunfermline. Morton failing to reach 5 points is also entirely realistic. There's the obvious possibility that Ayr don't beat Queens anyway, then the likelihood that they don't take anything in Inverness.

Being concerned while it's still mathematically possible is understandable, but acting like you're somehow the favourites is insane. This is full on Dunfermline behaviour.

When you lay it out it like that, I must admit, I am feeling a lot  more cheerful  about the situation.  

What could possibly go wrong for us from here? 

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Ok... but I don’t think it’s irrelevant to say things like ‘if we lose to x, we deserve to go down’... somebody has to finish 9th and you’d hope it’s the 2nd-worst team, the team that, at this stage, failed to take its chances to save itself.*
 

Spoiler

* So Ayr, basically

 

Edited by The Ghost of B A R P
Smart-arsed Dunfermline fans
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Even if Morton take 4 points from the games with Hearts & Alloa then draw with Arbroath, and Arbroath have drawn with Dunfermline the week before, and Ayr beat Queen of the South, then you'd still need Ayr to take something away to ICT along with your defeat at home to Dundee.
None of this is impossible in isolation, but it's not remotely probable when you look at all the routes to safety for QoS. If Morton fail to take 4 points from Hearts & Alloa it means they'd need to beat Arbroath to catch Queens, so for both of them to do it Arbroath would need beat Dunfermline. Morton failing to reach 5 points is also entirely realistic. There's the obvious possibility that Ayr don't beat Queens anyway, then the likelihood that they don't take anything in Inverness.
Being concerned while it's still mathematically possible is understandable, but acting like you're somehow the favourites is insane. This is full on Dunfermline behaviour.
Nah we mathematically cant go down m8
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