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The Relegation Dogfight


The Relegation Dogfight  

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If Dundee fail to win their next two games and Raith fail to win their next three, then our home game against Hearts on the 20th will be a dead rubber for the away team with the title won by default. Failure to beat Raith next week would make our following match against Alloa (h) a dead rubber for the visitors as well.

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Spoiler

We'd contrive to lose both games anyway.

 

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53 minutes ago, virginton said:

If Dundee fail to win their next two games and Raith fail to win their next three, then our home game against Hearts on the 20th will be a dead rubber for the away team with the title won by default. Failure to beat Raith next week would make our following match against Alloa (h) a dead rubber for the visitors as well.

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We'd contrive to lose both games anyway.

 

Given this, particularly the Alloa aspect -  an Ayr loss tomorrow and we’re down IMO.

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32 minutes ago, No_Problemo said:

Given this, particularly the Alloa aspect -  an Ayr loss tomorrow and we’re down IMO.

That’s presuming that a Morton team that has shown it is completely capable of gloriously miserable football could find a way to defeat a Hearts side comprising the halt and the lame. While they might have a decent chance to do so, it’s no sure thing. The more enjoyable thought is is Raith and Dundee win those matches and Hearts enters vs Morton with a respective five and eight point lead and a history of dealing poorly with pressure...especially as a loss versus Morton could conceivably result in a last game of the season showdown versus Raith.

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1 minute ago, TxRover said:

That’s presuming that a Morton team that has shown it is completely capable of gloriously miserable football could find a way to defeat a Hearts side comprising the halt and the lame. While they might have a decent chance to do so, it’s no sure thing. The more enjoyable thought is is Raith and Dundee win those matches and Hearts enters vs Morton with a respective five and eight point lead and a history of dealing poorly with pressure...especially as a loss versus Morton could conceivably result in a last game of the season showdown versus Raith.

I don’t particularly see Morton getting anything from Hearts regardless, however I think they’ll beat a possibly already relegated Alloa at home. 

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1 hour ago, virginton said:

If Dundee fail to win their next two games and Raith fail to win their next three, then our home game against Hearts on the 20th will be a dead rubber for the away team with the title won by default. Failure to beat Raith next week would make our following match against Alloa (h) a dead rubber for the visitors as well.

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We'd contrive to lose both games anyway.

😳  All that talk about rubbers from someone with no experience of them whatsoever.......  *

 

 

* -  well, maybe apart from a “posh w**k” to an Ainsley video.
 

Edited by Rudolph Hucker
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12 minutes ago, 1320Lichtie said:

Hearts have had enough poor results this season the pressure will be off and hopefully they try to go out in style because Neilson and the players are needing to do that for the fans ahead of next season. 
 

 

The word 'hope' doing a lot of heavy lifting in that post there, for a Robbie Neilson Hearts' side that has stunk the place out in every other away match this season and got turfed out of the cup at a Highland League outfit.

Hearts will of course be favourites to win against the Sean McGinty Shitshow regardless, but a dead rubber would tip the scale significantly in Morton's direction compared to the alternative of a title clincher. 

Four points from two dead rubber games is as much as I can see us putting up before the final day. 

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2 minutes ago, Rudolph Hucker said:

😳  All that talk about rubbers from someone with no experience of them whatsoever.......  *

 

 

* -  well, maybe apart from a “posh w**k”.
 

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20 hours ago, 19QOS19 said:
20 hours ago, RiG said:
I think [mention=79589]AmericanFan[/mention] might be referring to the despondency after the defeat against Morton at the start of last month. After that loss we were 1 win in 12, couldn't score and whilst we weren't getting pumped one goal was often enough to get at least a point against us. Morton had been without a win in ten before their victory up north and we were playing truly awful football and looked incredibly fragile. We were two points off the bottom albeit with four games in hand over other teams. I doubt you would have found many ICT fans who would have said we would have gone in the run we have done.

We hadn't won 6 games in a row (in all competitions) since 2009/10. There was been an incredible turnaround in the last few weeks. It beggars belief. The McCann appointment didn't exactly inspire me nor did the arrival of Dodds however you can't really argue with results and the players have also talked them up a lot as well (Todorov the other day was heaping praise on Dodds). It's a staggering turnaround in form. Allan coming in was completely unexpected and has provided a real creative spark up front for us and Lyall gives some "padding" for the squad as well. Hopefully we can keep it up and secure a play off spot.

I'm aware of what he means and don't disagree. I was pulling him up on using an awful Americanism. He's obviously missed the joke though.

I just tried a joke of my own. Let's see if you got the giving the piss...

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23 hours ago, 19QOS19 said:
On 09/04/2021 at 11:02, RiG said:
I think [mention=79589]AmericanFan[/mention] might be referring to the despondency after the defeat against Morton at the start of last month. After that loss we were 1 win in 12, couldn't score and whilst we weren't getting pumped one goal was often enough to get at least a point against us. Morton had been without a win in ten before their victory up north and we were playing truly awful football and looked incredibly fragile. We were two points off the bottom albeit with four games in hand over other teams. I doubt you would have found many ICT fans who would have said we would have gone in the run we have done.

We hadn't won 6 games in a row (in all competitions) since 2009/10. There was been an incredible turnaround in the last few weeks. It beggars belief. The McCann appointment didn't exactly inspire me nor did the arrival of Dodds however you can't really argue with results and the players have also talked them up a lot as well (Todorov the other day was heaping praise on Dodds). It's a staggering turnaround in form. Allan coming in was completely unexpected and has provided a real creative spark up front for us and Lyall gives some "padding" for the squad as well. Hopefully we can keep it up and secure a play off spot.

I'm aware of what he means and don't disagree. I was pulling him up on using an awful Americanism. He's obviously missed the joke though.

 

3 hours ago, AmericanFan said:

I just tried a joke of my own. Let's see if you got the giving the piss...

I have no time for jokes. I am a very serious poster.

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19 hours ago, virginton said:

If Dundee fail to win their next two games and Raith fail to win their next three, then our home game against Hearts on the 20th will be a dead rubber for the away team with the title won by default.

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On balance, a slightly better day's work then for both ourselves and Arbroath than Ayr. Before today's games I'd have given us about a 40% chance of finishing 9th (favourites). It's probably not far off 33-33-33* now.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

* 1% Alloa/Queens.

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8 minutes ago, Monkey Tennis said:

Yes, we must be very nearly safe now, given that Arbroath have still to play both Morton and Ayr.

It would take quite a sequence now for all 3 to get above us.

It can still happen but nobody gaining on us today it certainly makes it less likely. 

 

 

 

Edited by Distant Doonhamer
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9 minutes ago, Monkey Tennis said:

Yes, we must be very nearly safe now, given that Arbroath have still to play both Morton and Ayr.

It would take quite a sequence now for all 3 to get above us.

QoS lose all three...

Arbroath beat Ayr and the Pars, lose to Morton

Morton lose to Hearts, beat Alloa and Arbroath

Ayr lose to Arbroath, beat QoS and ICT

QoS drop to ninth...the only outlandish result there are Ayr beating ICT, except they cooled off today, and, well, that’s it.

Edited by TxRover
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5 minutes ago, TxRover said:

QoS lose all three...

Arbroath beat Ayr and the Pars, lose to Morton

Morton lose to Hearts, beat Alloa and Arbroath

Ayr lose to Arbroath, beat QoS and ICT

QoS drop to ninth...the only outlandish result there are Ayr beating ICT, except they cooled off today, and, well, that’s it.

Nothing individually outlandish there, but all of them coming together like that is unlikely.

I'm not renowned for my optimism, but I think we're almost safe now.

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18 minutes ago, TxRover said:

QoS lose all three...

Arbroath beat Ayr and the Pars, lose to Morton

Morton lose to Hearts, beat Alloa and Arbroath

Ayr lose to Arbroath, beat QoS and ICT

QoS drop to ninth...the only outlandish result there are Ayr beating ICT, except they cooled off today, and, well, that’s it.

If we lose all 3 then it's a virtual certainty that Ayr would have a better goal difference than us so 4 points would suffice. Beat us, lose to Arbroath and draw with ICT would achieve that.

There are a variety of results which could see us in 9th. As you suggest none of them are individually particularly outlandish but the combination remains hugely unlikely.

 

Edited by Distant Doonhamer
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23 minutes ago, Monkey Tennis said:

Nothing individually outlandish there, but all of them coming together like that is unlikely.

I'm not renowned for my optimism, but I think we're almost safe now.

 

13 minutes ago, Distant Doonhamer said:

If we lose all 3 then it's a virtual certainty that Ayr would have a better goal difference than us so 4 points would suffice. Beat us, lose to Arbroath and draw with ICT would achieve that.

There are a variety of results which could see us in 9th. As you suggest none of them are individually particularly outlandish but the combination remains hugely unlikely.

 

Absolutely agree.

 

20 minutes ago, stan3600 said:

Give it a rest Queens fans - you should be hunting a playoff place.

Today’s results rendered that result about as likely as finishing ninth. Queens is nicely placed for a mid-table finish, something most of their fans would have killed for before Christmas!

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1 minute ago, TxRover said:

 

Today’s results rendered that result about as likely as finishing ninth. Queens is nicely placed for a mid-table finish, something most of their fans would have killed for before Christmas!

I don't quite agree.

Today's results helped make a mid-table finish the most likely outcome, but I think we've a better chance of 4th than 9th.  We have a game in hand over ICT and have yet to play Dunfermline.  If we could win 3 of our 4 remaining games, it would probably just about do it, despite our honking goal difference.  

I don't think that'll happen, but it requires a less convoluted sequence than does 9th place.

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