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Massive game tonight, but looking forward...

Qualifying groups are drawn on the 7th of December. The seedings are all but finalised, Finland's win in Paris has thrown a spanner in the works. We'll be seeded 3rd.

IMG_20201112_100857.jpg.10863579dc4704403807c60791afe6b5.jpg

A group with Croatia, Ireland, Luxembourg, Andorra and San Marino the dream.

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We are always shite against Wales. Ireland or Austria from the second group, please. Denmark ahead of Croatia, too. Thanks.

Edited by Bully Wee Villa

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Nightmare group would be  Belgium, Russia, Scotland, Israel, Kazakhstan and Moldova

Or

Portugal, Turkey, Scotland, Montenegro, Kosovo, Moldova

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Feel sure we will get Israel, we seem to go through spells drawing the same team over and over again. They can be the new Lithuania.

Edited by Bully Wee Villa

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Tonight aside we really need to win our current nations league group. This will give us great chance of world cup play off as it will put us in Group A. Group A will virtually guarantee a play off as majority of teams will qualify automatically.
It could also mean top seeds for Euro 2024 qualification

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Tonight aside we really need to win our current nations league group. This will give us great chance of world cup play off as it will put us in Group A. Group A will virtually guarantee a play off as majority of teams will qualify automatically.
It could also mean top seeds for Euro 2024 qualification


I looked into this as I’ve seen a lot of mention of a ‘virtually guaranteed’ play-off if we win our NL group.

Unfortunately however it isn’t true. There’ll be ten groups in WC qualifying, with the group winners automatically through and the ten runners up automatically in a play-off spot. The ten sides in the play-off spots will be joined by the two highest Nations League ranked teams who didn’t finish in the top two of their qualifying group, and the winners of the six ties qualify.

So in terms of raw numbers.. sure. 20 teams qualify for the WC or the play-offs, and there are currently 16 teams ranked above us in the NL (all League A, we can’t overtake anyone). The vast majority of that 16 will finish top two in their WC groups.

Unfortunately however of the 16, Iceland and Bosnia are in Pot 3 for the qualifiers alongside us, so will need to pull off an upset of sorts to finish second. In theory, both can actually end up in a group with two other top-16 NL teams (there are four in Pot 2, and everyone in Pot 1), and thus the 3rd placed country from that group would be guaranteed the NL play-off.

Additionally, winning the group on its own is no guarantee of being first in queue for a NL spot as we’re in competition with the other group winners if we do so. Currently, we lead Wales by virtue of goals scored and Austria/Russia are the other group leaders. All are Pot 2 for the qualifiers but not necessarily certs to finish in the top 2 in their group, draw dependent. I’d be keeping an eye on Norway (Pot 3) and Finland (Pot 4) over the coming days as if they win their group and finish ahead of us in the head-to-head, it really wouldn’t look great.

Tl;dr - we definitely have to win the group, probably getting at least four points but six would guarantee a good shot at having the highest points tally of the NL group winners. If Norway/Finland win their groups and better our points tally it’s almost definitely over. Even if we are best of the group winners, we’ll need to watch the WC draw very closely and hope Iceland/Bosnia aren’t put in a group with fellow League A teams (a 40% chance of it). Winning the group gives us a chance, but certainly doesn’t guarantee, a play-off.

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Iceland and Bosnia haven't won their Nations League groups, so they won't be a factor. It's only the 4 League A group winners and our fellow League B group winners we have to worry about.

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I looked into this as I’ve seen a lot of mention of a ‘virtually guaranteed’ play-off if we win our NL group.

Unfortunately however it isn’t true. There’ll be ten groups in WC qualifying, with the group winners automatically through and the ten runners up automatically in a play-off spot. The ten sides in the play-off spots will be joined by the two highest Nations League ranked teams who didn’t finish in the top two of their qualifying group, and the winners of the six ties qualify.

So in terms of raw numbers.. sure. 20 teams qualify for the WC or the play-offs, and there are currently 16 teams ranked above us in the NL (all League A, we can’t overtake anyone). The vast majority of that 16 will finish top two in their WC groups.

Unfortunately however of the 16, Iceland and Bosnia are in Pot 3 for the qualifiers alongside us, so will need to pull off an upset of sorts to finish second. In theory, both can actually end up in a group with two other top-16 NL teams (there are four in Pot 2, and everyone in Pot 1), and thus the 3rd placed country from that group would be guaranteed the NL play-off.

Additionally, winning the group on its own is no guarantee of being first in queue for a NL spot as we’re in competition with the other group winners if we do so. Currently, we lead Wales by virtue of goals scored and Austria/Russia are the other group leaders. All are Pot 2 for the qualifiers but not necessarily certs to finish in the top 2 in their group, draw dependent. I’d be keeping an eye on Norway (Pot 3) and Finland (Pot 4) over the coming days as if they win their group and finish ahead of us in the head-to-head, it really wouldn’t look great.

Tl;dr - we definitely have to win the group, probably getting at least four points but six would guarantee a good shot at having the highest points tally of the NL group winners. If Norway/Finland win their groups and better our points tally it’s almost definitely over. Even if we are best of the group winners, we’ll need to watch the WC draw very closely and hope Iceland/Bosnia aren’t put in a group with fellow League A teams (a 40% chance of it). Winning the group gives us a chance, but certainly doesn’t guarantee, a play-off.
Surely if we make Group A, there is a big big chance that we will be one of the highest two nations leagues teams assuming we don't finish first or second in qualifying. I would assume most teams in Group A nations will finish first or second?

Also being in group A means we will be in high pot for next euro qualification

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Iceland and Bosnia haven't won their Nations League groups, so they won't be a factor. It's only the 4 League A group winners and our fellow League B group winners we have to worry about.


Ah, I didn’t pick that up when glancing through the rules earlier. That’s good news.

Win the group with as many points as possible then, and we have a real shot. But the points we win in the two games after Serbia might define it altogether, two draws would win us the group but would also likely see us fourth in line from the League B winners and relying on them finishing in the top two of the WC qualifiers.

Crucial to win the group first of all and we’ll see where we land.

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55 minutes ago, Pie Of The Month said:

That 2.42% must have risen after tonight's results.

Only counts as a draw for us, which probably isn't enough.

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A win on penalties is given a value of 0.75 (draw is 0.5, win before pens is 1.0).

Things are slightly clearer after last nights games regarding pot 2.

This isn't an exact science as results from seemingly irrelevant matches can play a part in the calculations.  But I think we'll make pot 2 if...

We win both games AND

  •     Romania - max 4pts (Norway, NI)
  •     Norway - max 4pts (Romania, Austria)
  •     Rep. Ireland - max 3pts (Wales, Bulgaria)
  •     Slovakia - 0pts (Scotland, Czech Rep.)

 

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We're not winning both games. For sure there will be squad rotation with the likes of McBurnie getting a start in one of them.

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We're not winning both games. For sure there will be squad rotation with the likes of McBurnie getting a start in one of them.
It's unlikely but I'd never say never given the run we're on.
McBurnie may start the Slovakia game due to Dykes suspension. Slovakia will have to rest some players too.

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We Global have provided a break down of how each team can move up or down

http://www.weglobalfootball.com/2020/11/13/uefa-world-cup-2022-qualifying-pots-update/

For Scotland to get into pot 2 they need to win both games and hope

Slovakia or Russia lose both games (Slovakia at home to Scotland and away to Czech Republic,  Russia are away to Turkey and Serbia) - or both of them to lose both games if one of the below doesn't happen
Ireland to pick up no more than 3 points (away to Wales and home to Bulgaria)
Romania and Norway to pick up no more than 4 points (Play each other then Norway are away to Austria and Romania are away to Northen Ireland)
Hungary and Iceland not to pick up 6 points (Hungary are at home to Turkey and Serbia, Iceland are away to Denmark and England)

Replace Russia in pot 2 to then draw Russia from pot 3 nailed on.

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