The 2024 Presidential Election

[NotThePars]

They’re basing Ivanka off her admittedly coherent RNC speech but I think she could turn to the Democrats without any major pitch change and people would lap it up.

Don Jr will definitely be considering a run which the entire world deserves to see although I think his dad will refuse to give his blessing.

I thought Tucker Carlson would be a potential figure to pick up the lumpen Trump base but he’s also a total geek and doesn’t have the unique magnetism of a Trump.

Mike Lindell the My Pillow guy is a left field choice and I’m sure I saw someone suggesting he’d been asked to consider entering politics in the near future.

The more I think about it the more apparent it seems that bar Trump running again I can’t see anyone harnessing the psychotic coalition Trump pulled together over the last 4 years and I’d be surprised if the Republicans hit the same numbers with whoever runs in 2024. Even Trump would fail to do it, imo. At the same time though if it’s not Trump running, if it’s not as easy to cast your vote as it has been this time, and if the four years of Biden/ Harris has done enough to depress the Democrat base then you’re likely looking at a reduced turnout anyway.

[harry94]

2 minutes ago, NotThePars said:

Don Jr will definitely be considering a run which the entire world deserves to see although I think his dad will refuse to give his blessing.

I think Don Jr could get his fathers blessing. If you look at the whole MAGA universe, he's particularly connected to a lot of the base and seems to know very well what buttons to push. If Trump himself can't come, he's usually the surrogate they go after. Pre Trump's run in 2016, Don Jr was the only one who was really invested in going into politics.

[harry94]

3 hours ago, LongTimeLurker said:

No chance whatsoever. By the time the current shenanigans end Trump and his use of Twitter will be viewed the way the Dems view a Jimmy Carter fireside chat telling the voters truths they don't want to hear. Never to be repeated. It will probably be some governor we have never heard of, who can secure an important swing state or appeal to part of the Democrats electoral coalition. 

The demographics of the US electorate are shifting in a way that favours the Dems, so the path to victory with a MAGA approach is a lot more difficult in 2024 than in 2016 when it only happened very narrowly against the popular vote trend.

Voters aren't rational. The RNC had the idea of a Jeb, Rubio or Cruz type candidate in 2016 and were taken by surprise. Trump is going down fighting and a large no of voters are pretty dedicated to his cause, I'm convinced a large no will believe regardless that Trump is the legitimate winner of this election.

There's a fair chance that the MAGA stuff will still be fairly mainstream by the next election.

[LongTimeLurker]

37 minutes ago, harry94 said:

...There's a fair chance that the MAGA stuff will still be fairly mainstream by the next election.

Sure but can the Republicans put together a winning coalition on the electoral college by that point against the overall popular vote trend? Texas has been slowly drifting to the Democrats for reasons of demography for the last 20 years just as Arizona has. All the crazy Sherriff Joe Arpaio sort of stuff in Arizona about a decade back was about trying to scare away the increasing Latino population that the Republicans knew was eventually going to flip things blue like it did in California previously. That failed. The Dems have won the senate seat and it looks like Biden is also going to win. The gap in Texas this time is now where Georgia was last time...

Once states like Arizona, Texas, Georgia and North Carolina are firmly in the Democratic camp for demographic reasons and staying there like New Mexico and Colorado previously it will become impossible to repeat what Trump did in 2016. The Republicans will finally have to move away from Nixon's "southern strategy" that was developed in the aftermath of what LBJ did on civil rights that alienated all the "Dixiecrats" and use a different approach. The USA is inexorably moving towards the white population no longer being the majority some time in the 2040s and that means tapping into white supremacist sentiments dog whistle style is no longer going to work at the federal level.

Edited November 9, 2020 by LongTimeLurker

[NotThePars]

I think Don Jr could get his fathers blessing. If you look at the whole MAGA universe, he's particularly connected to a lot of the base and seems to know very well what buttons to push. If Trump himself can't come, he's usually the surrogate they go after. Pre Trump's run in 2016, Don Jr was the only one who was really invested in going into politics.

It’s less about the rationality (lol) and more that Trump senior clearly thinks big Don Jr is a LOSER!

[harry94]

7 minutes ago, LongTimeLurker said:

Sure but can the Republicans put together a winning coalition on the electoral college by that point against the overall popular vote trend? Texas has been slowly drifting to the Democrats for reasons of demography for the last 20 years just as Arizona has. All the crazy Sherriff Joe Arpaio sort of stuff in Arizona about a decade back was about trying to scare away the increasing Latino population that the Republicans knew was eventually going to flip things blue like it did in California previously. That failed. The Dems have won the senate seat and it looks like Biden is also going to win. The gap in Texas this time is where Georgia was last time...

Once states like Arizona, Texas, Georgia and North Carolina are firmly in the Democratic camp for demographic reasons and staying there like New Mexico and Colorado previously it will become impossible to repeat what Trump did in 2016. The Republicans will finally have to move away from Nixon's "southern strategy" that was developed in the aftermath of what LBJ did on civil rights that alienated all the "Dixiecrats" and use a different approach. The USA is inexorably moving towards the white population no longer being the majority some time in the 2040s and that means tapping into white supremacist sentiments dog whistle style is no longer going to work at the federal level.

Georgia has always been a state with a huge no of disenfranchised voters and a particularly bad whiff of corruption, even relative to the standard US nonsense. Stacey Abrams who narrowly lost the election for governor in 2018 has put a huge amount of effort into developing infrastructure for the Democrats and getting voters registered. Her and the financial support she got from Bloomberg to do all this was decisive.

People have been talking about Texas flipping for decades, if you go back nearly 30 years in the 1992 election, the Democrat vote share is pretty much the same in 2016 and 3% up in this election (with historically high turnout) with plenty of ups and downs in the middle. On the other side, people used to say the 'blue wall' was trending to be solid blue for the mid west and there's been fairly little change for decades.

I think the Democrats do go into it as favourites but I think there's still plenty of fertile ground to give any Republican candidate a shot at winning. If turnout just drops slightly, the map flips to be disproportionately in favour of the Republicans. If the effect of that was just a 3.5% swing in the midwest which we've seen many times before, that's the 270 needed before even thinking about reflipping Georgia and Arizona or Nevada.

The electoral college is still a very powerful weapon and I think this election shows that more than ever.

[BFTD]

I somehow doubt The Donald's ego could cope with any of his terrifying children supplanting him, so they'll have to wait until after he's kicked off.

At least a couple of them have that Scientology psychopath look about them, so we may yet live to see the first attempt to remove a president on the grounds that they're a serial killer.

[LongTimeLurker]

1 hour ago, harry94 said:

...I think the Democrats do go into it as favourites but I think there's still plenty of fertile ground to give any Republican candidate a shot at winning...

Things don't stand still. Setting aside demography, eventually people are going to move beyond the dated narratives of Trump (the end of coal was a tree hugging green commie plot and coal will recover once Obama's subsidies are ended) and Greta (we can and will burn fossil fuels until the ice caps melt unless there is some global government intervention to ban them) and realise that 2016 was the year that renewables finally started to eclipse fossil fuels for capitalism related reasons that will unleash the hidden hand of the market:

 

Edited November 9, 2020 by LongTimeLurker

[Michael W]

Biden/Harris have to deal with the Covid fallout so in reality this victory is a hospital pass. If it goes wrong and there are still a lot of Americans struggling or notably worse off in four years' time they will be horsed right out. Trump hasn't lost badly in PA, AZ or GA for example - a handful of votes in a few states are all the Republicans need to regain the White House and that won't be particularly hard if the population is not seeing an improving economic situation. 

I don't think there's any chance of Biden standing again in 2024,so it'll probably be Harris again. Can't at this moment in time see Trump letting it go either. 

Edited November 9, 2020 by Michael W

[BFTD]

Anyone saying that Biden won't stand in four years' time has sorely underestimated the ambition and determination required to rise to the office of POTUS in the first place.

"From my cold, dead hands" doesn't just apply to firearms!

[Salvo Montalbano]

Nikki Haley or Little Rubio imo. Probably Nikki but they might be keen on the midget's Cuban heritage.

I reckon it'll be Rubio. Get those latino votes in Texas, Arizona and Florida. They'll need a northern Midwest governor or senator to balance the ticket but I can see logic in this.

[D Angelo Barksdale]

It depends on how much malignant Trumpness is still around in 2024, or if it ends up regressing back to some sort of tea party vibe with added nationalism. Regardless, the GOP primaries will still be the world's foremost collection of ghouls.

I could see Rubio or Haley on the ticket in an attempt to appeal to demographics. Don Jr is the banter option, but is a genuine moron. The danger for them is they would clearly prefer to nominate a boring, generic white guy.

But after Trump, that's not going to cut it.

Long way to go.

[NotThePars]

It depends on how much malignant Trumpness is still around in 2024, or if it ends up regressing back to some sort of tea party vibe with added nationalism. Regardless, the GOP primaries will still be the world's foremost collection of ghouls.
I could see Rubio or Haley on the ticket in an attempt to appeal to demographics. Don Jr is the banter option, but is a genuine moron. The danger for them is they would clearly prefer to nominate a boring, generic white guy.

But after Trump, that's not going to cut it.
Long way to go.

Don Jr also does dogshit numbers for the quantity of his posts and half the time he does public appearances it goes terribly. Also seems to have pissed off party grandees during the recent campaign. I also think of that clip from CPAC that Felix off Chapo kept posting where Don Jr, Jerry Falwell Jr and someone else are riffing and Don’s is just interjecting periodically “HAHA HASHTAG ME TOO!!!!”

Boy has no chance, he is simply too dumb and a charisma vacuum.

[D Angelo Barksdale]

16 minutes ago, NotThePars said:

 

Don Jr also does dogshit numbers for the quantity of his posts and half the time he does public appearances it goes terribly. Also seems to have pissed off party grandees during the recent campaign. I also think of that clip from CPAC that Felix off Chapo kept posting where Don Jr, Jerry Falwell Jr and someone else are riffing and Don’s is just interjecting periodically “HAHA HASHTAG ME TOO!!!!”

Boy has no chance, he is simply too dumb and a charisma vacuum.

 

I hope he runs. The thought of seeing him owned by absolutely everyone, including his dad, is something to look forward to.

Jacob Wohl as campaign manager.

[Lofarl]

By 2024 Don jr would have snorted up half of Columbia. 

[welshbairn]

26 minutes ago, Henderson to deliver ..... said:

Jacob Wohl as campaign manager.

Speaking of which..

https://www.cleveland.com/court-justice/2020/10/ny-judge-orders-jacob-wohl-jack-burkman-to-send-out-new-robocall-saying-first-one-resulted-in-voter-intimidation.html

[Florentine_Pogen]

 

[TxRover]

12 hours ago, Arabdownunder said:

70 million people voted for Trump. They'll still be around in 2024.

Meh, closer to 55 million left...10-12 million will be dead from old age, 2 million from drug abuse or suicide and 1 million from COVID.

[welshbairn]

12 hours ago, Arabdownunder said:

70 million people voted for Trump. They'll still be around in 2024.

A whole load of them would have just voted GOP for the entire ballot because that's what they, their Pappy and their Grandpappy have always done, god darn it. The number of actual Trumpets is hopefully a lot smaller.

[Granny Danger]

54 minutes ago, TxRover said:

Meh, closer to 55 million left...10-12 million will be dead from old age, 2 million from drug abuse or suicide and 1 million from COVID.

Less than a million people voted for Trump, the other votes were part of a huge fraud.

Sorry that should read HUGE FRAUD!!!