welshbairn Posted November 1, 2020 Share Posted November 1, 2020 1 hour ago, Jacksgranda said: It seems pointless taking it to court, that guy says they're not going to win (about half a dozen times).... The longer they take it to appeal, and other cases around the country, the more time Trump has to deny the result is fair and get his hand picked Supreme Court to decide the election. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dorlomin Posted November 1, 2020 Share Posted November 1, 2020 These news stories are just empty air. Biden out raised Trump 3-1. He has been swamping him in advertising. https://www.politico.com/news/2020/10/31/biden-top-campaign-fundraisers-433774 The Guardians emphasis on his religion is something we seem to see creeping into certain stories a lot. The Slate story is a case that has been around for weeks, its on its last legs. Reuters take on it seems like they have not been up all night knocking back the espressos. https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-texas/u-s-judge-to-hear-republican-bid-to-void-100000-votes-in-texas-idUSKBN27G0W9 Every election there are the same kind of stories from the south (its had these and far worse problems since they were first admitted to the union). Vox has a more nuanced take on the wider problem. https://www.vox.com/21534660/long-lines-voting-voter-suppression-election-2020 But the efforts seem to have failed or backfired. Georgia has already had 95% of its 2016 vote, I wrote about Texas on Friday (polling closed now). https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/GA.html Pennsylvania where all the stress has been, 80% of registered Democrats who requested mail ballots have already had them returned. https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/PA.html There are about 370 000 still outstanding, so they have 2 postal days to arrive for those in the mail and those being dropped off have 3 days including polling day. So another panic story seems to be fading. Where PA will have an issue is the verification of the ballot. But hey its a bridge to cross when counting starts. Other than the blocking of Bidens bus, this has actually been a pretty smooth running election so far. Worrying trend for Biden in Florida in terms of early voter turnout. https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/FL.html If you squint and make guesses that the Republicans will turn up on the day, then being marginally ahead on early voting is something to keep you up. But its Florida, who has a clue. Quote 8 days from now the polls should be about 8 points for Biden and the real drama will start at a) t Currently 8.6. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/national/ If I were to make a prediction, Id say Biden to over shoot that. Dems to take the president, House and Senate. Biden to over perform national swing in Arizona and under perform in Florida. Wisconsin to be a total blow out (its Covid numbers are pretty bleak). 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeeTillEhDeh Posted November 1, 2020 Share Posted November 1, 2020 It looks bleak for Trump - if the state polls are accurate this time - they have adjusted to take account of the white uneducated male vote - then he is struggling big time. If there are no toss-ups and those polls are accurate then the map looks like this: Polls in toss-up states that were on his side - Georgia, Arizona, Ohio - are now polling for a Biden win. If the pollsters get this wrong then they may as well pack up and go home. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongTimeLurker Posted November 1, 2020 Share Posted November 1, 2020 (edited) On 29/10/2020 at 01:34, GordonS said: Surely not Curtice? It's pretty ridiculous to say Trump doesn't have a chance. Depending on whose average you use, Trump is within 3.8 to 5.1 points of Biden in Pennsylvania. State polls on average have regularly been out by almost that much, and there's still time for the gap to narrow (which is usually does and did last time). If Trump wins Pennsylvania and keeps Florida, North Carolina, Arizona and Georgia, he wins. He could even lose Iowa and still win.... Can remember arguing on here that Trump could win last time around and being met with a lot of skepticism. The difference this time is that US media people should have learned not to underestimate how deeply alienated a large portion of the working class white American population is from the coastal liberal elites for economic reasons and how Trump is able to tap into that very effectively with a nationalist and anti-globalist message. Michael Moore articulated what was happening very well at the time in 2016 and an ex-pat Scottish economist called Mark Blyth has also been worth a listen subsequently. If US pollsters are weighting their numbers properly this time to take into account education level amongst white respondents rather than having their polling skewed more than it should be towards college graduates then Trump's shot at victory should be sunk without trace at this point based on the polling numbers that are being reported and the evidence of higher than usual turnouts. We'll only really know if they have adjusted for those factors properly and are now able to properly quantify pro-Trump voting trends that they missed last time when the results start coming in. Edited November 1, 2020 by LongTimeLurker 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NotThePars Posted November 1, 2020 Share Posted November 1, 2020 11 minutes ago, LongTimeLurker said: Can remember arguing on here that Trump could win last time around and being met with a lot of skepticism. Is this actually true because you also claimed that everyone ridiculed you for suggesting the Irish border would be an issue if Brexit happened and produced zero evidence suggesting that ever happened? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Granny Danger Posted November 1, 2020 Share Posted November 1, 2020 Does the early voting include voting for Senate, House, etc? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted November 1, 2020 Share Posted November 1, 2020 It might have been @LongTimeLurker I lost a charity bet with, first on the primary and then doubled it up for the election. As I remember it it was only him (or someone else) and Banana who thought Trump would win. Could be wrong. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted November 1, 2020 Share Posted November 1, 2020 2 minutes ago, Granny Danger said: Does the early voting include voting for Senate, House, etc? Right down to dog catcher. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongTimeLurker Posted November 1, 2020 Share Posted November 1, 2020 43 minutes ago, welshbairn said: It might have been @LongTimeLurker I lost a charity bet with, first on the primary and then doubled it up for the election. As I remember it it was only him (or someone else) and Banana who thought Trump would win. Could be wrong. Wasn't me on the charity bet. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dorlomin Posted November 1, 2020 Share Posted November 1, 2020 (edited) 56 minutes ago, Granny Danger said: Does the early voting include voting for Senate, House, etc? Yes. Edited, everyone gets a vote for the president (other than unincorporated territories such as Puerto Rico that are holding elections and a referendum on the same day). If you have a senate, house, governor or state legislature plus all the referendums, you will get the ballots for that with the presidential one. Some of the ballots can get a bit epic. Edited November 1, 2020 by dorlomin 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bully Wee Villa Posted November 1, 2020 Share Posted November 1, 2020 53 minutes ago, welshbairn said: It might have been @LongTimeLurker I lost a charity bet with, first on the primary and then doubled it up for the election. As I remember it it was only him (or someone else) and Banana who thought Trump would win. Could be wrong. I thought Trump would win. The only consolation was making £300 on it. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sherrif John Bunnell Posted November 1, 2020 Share Posted November 1, 2020 I've not read through the whole of this thread from 2016, but Pepp and JLD were both on the money on the first page. Dom Dom not so much. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sherrif John Bunnell Posted November 1, 2020 Share Posted November 1, 2020 I'm also going through the posts on election night in the main 2016 thread for the lols. @Alan Stubbs was far more right with this prediction than I think anyone could have guessed On 09/11/2016 at 05:13, Alan Stubbs said: Trump v Kanye 2020, imo. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Highlandmagyar 2nd Tier Posted November 1, 2020 Share Posted November 1, 2020 (edited) Trump to pull it out of the fire and win. Gives Boris a bumper trade deal in exchange for our NHS. Edited November 1, 2020 by Highlandmagyar 2nd Tier 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted November 1, 2020 Share Posted November 1, 2020 (edited) 48 minutes ago, Sherrif John Bunnell said: I've not read through the whole of this thread from 2016, but Pepp and JLD were both on the money on the first page. Dom Dom not so much. Getting a frightening bit of deja vu reading that, which I've just realised doesn't make sense. The difference this time is that Biden's margin in the polls in consistently higher than Clinton's overall, although some states he needs are pretty narrow. It would be shocking if he lost all the close ones though, and if he retains a national lead of 5% say, dropping from 8%, the electoral vote margin starts shooting up. 6% and over is a landslide. The pollsters didn't get it that wrong back then, about a 3 point lead in the popular vote which was about half a point high. And the number of votes that secured the electoral college for him was tiny, less than a hundred thousand. I blame the Greens, and Hilary fucking Clinton of course. Edited November 1, 2020 by welshbairn 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
O'Kelly Isley III Posted November 1, 2020 Share Posted November 1, 2020 Trump to pull it out of the fire and win. Gives Boris a bumper trade deal in exchange for our NHS. Is that a prediction or a hope ? It's a simple question. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aladdin Posted November 1, 2020 Share Posted November 1, 2020 Democrats to sweep the board winning thr presidency, Senate and house.538 gave Trump a 30% chance of winning in 2016. By their own admission, their model is, if anything, conservative on Bidens chances and hes currently got a 90% chance of winning. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongTimeLurker Posted November 1, 2020 Share Posted November 1, 2020 (edited) 47 minutes ago, welshbairn said: Getting a frightening bit of deja vu reading that, which I've just realised doesn't make sense. The difference this time is that Biden's margin in the polls in consistently higher than Clinton's overall, ... Think Biden will win quite comfortably but there are enough outlier polls that put Trump where he needs to be for there to be room for concern. Overall Sleepy Joe doesn't resonate like Crooked Hillary did, and the Hunter Biden in Ukraine angle pales in comparison to what is widely believed about the Clintons. Also, not clear that Trump has actually followed through enough on the things he said he was going to do such as building the wall and saving the coal industry to still be viewed in the manner Michael Moore described in 2016 rather than as just another self-serving politician. : At least some blue collar people in rust belt states like Michigan that went for Trump last time will hopefully avoid voting so myopically against their class interest this time Edited November 1, 2020 by LongTimeLurker 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted November 1, 2020 Share Posted November 1, 2020 1 minute ago, LongTimeLurker said: what is widely believed about the Clintons. Very Trumpian. "A lot of people say..." 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongTimeLurker Posted November 1, 2020 Share Posted November 1, 2020 Don't have time for pish like this. If you think I support Trump you can get to a place rhyming with luck. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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