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The US Presidential election prediction thread

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Much less confident about a Biden victory at this point as I thought I would be. Feel like we’re headed towards a situation where Trump starts celebrating victory before all the postal votes are in, and then just refuses to acknowledge their validity.

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12 minutes ago, DeeTillEhDeh said:

When you don't even trust your own wife to vote for you.

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From 2016, that one.

 

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2 minutes ago, DeeTillEhDeh said:

Did he do the same this time?

 

 

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Probably, but in Florida this time. Haven't seen any photos but I doubt the colours will match.

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Some Prof on the BBC there. Correctly predicted every US Prez election since 1984. Says Biden can't lose. Trump lost it in the past couple of months due to the Covid response and subsequent economic impact.

He explained his methodology, but to be honest, I'm not the sharpest. Sounded kosher at the time.

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Are Trump and his idiot base really going to accept the absolute loser status that a genuine landslide defeat would slap on his orange forehead for all time? I think we've got a 5% chance of the US going into full banana republic territory here. Even having already packed the Supreme Court with nutters, the stakes seem dangerously high for a lot of nutters with guns over there.

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8 minutes ago, Academically Deficient said:

Some Prof on the BBC there. Correctly predicted every US Prez election since 1984. Says Biden can't lose. Trump lost it in the past couple of months due to the Covid response and subsequent economic impact.

He explained his methodology, but to be honest, I'm not the sharpest. Sounded kosher at the time.

Theres a south carolina baseball team who sell ‘bobbleheads’ of the two main candidates and the most sold has apparently gone on to win the election. The trump one won. Anyway I guess one method of predicting will be wrong, hope its the baseball one. 

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Ever got the feeling that your junkie neighbour is on the verge of going off the rails, burning their house down and damaging your house in the process?

That's what it feels like to be Canada right now

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In terms of actual predictions, I am going to say Popular vote Biden 52 - Trump 44

Biden will likely win back some states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and maybe Michigan, enough to win the electoral college

This will not be done on election night and the battles could go on for a while, it's going to be very ugly and I just hope we don't end up with any collatoral damage.  

Edited by senorsoupe

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1 hour ago, Academically Deficient said:

Some Prof on the BBC there. Correctly predicted every US Prez election since 1984. Says Biden can't lose. Trump lost it in the past couple of months due to the Covid response and subsequent economic impact.

He explained his methodology, but to be honest, I'm not the sharpest. Sounded kosher at the time.

Surely not Curtice? It's pretty ridiculous to say Trump doesn't have a chance. Depending on whose average you use, Trump is within 3.8 to 5.1 points of Biden in Pennsylvania. State polls on average have regularly been out by almost that much, and there's still time for the gap to narrow (which is usually does and did last time). If Trump wins Pennsylvania and keeps Florida, North Carolina, Arizona and Georgia, he wins. He could even lose Iowa and still win.

Folk have been taking some comfort from the fact the polling methodology has been changed to fix the problems of the last time, but polls don't continually get more accurate, new problems crop up all the time. In this case we're dealing with a literally unprecedented situation, with mail-in ballots already at the level of half the total vote in 2016. We'll have an incredibly partisan Supreme Court deciding on challenges. There has been and will continue to be widespread vote suppression. We should be less confident about polls this time, not more.

Biden is strong favourite and has many more outs than Trump, but I can't understand how anyone can call it on these numbers. Anything from a small Trump win to a Biden landslide is still entirely possible.

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Am I the only one here who thinks Trump is going to win again? When it happened the first time round I wasn’t surprised at all, I see no difference here. America seems to have been crippled by misinformation on social media much like the UK has when it comes to the Tories. I hope I’m wrong but I’m fully prepared for a Trump win.

I also think the US is on the verge of civil war. A country full of scared and angry gun nuts who have been fed all sorts of ridiculous lies about the democrats.

A channel 4 piece recently was in America and the gun shop owner was showing off his empty shelves explaining that people are “stocking up.”

If Biden wins I think it could all kick off.

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I've been thinking that Trump would win, have bet on him and bet on him last time. Very much hoping to lose the money.

I am just starting to allow myself to believe Biden should win, though. Maybe relatively comfortably. Concerned that even allowing myself to consider that is setting myself up for a fall again but, f**k it, Biden 341-Trump 197. No landslide but, hopefully, no reason to get the courts or the Proud Twats involved.

 

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Edited by Bully Wee Villa

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30 minutes ago, jamamafegan said:

Am I the only one here who thinks Trump is going to win again? When it happened the first time round I wasn’t surprised at all, I see no difference here. America seems to have been crippled by misinformation on social media much like the UK has when it comes to the Tories. I hope I’m wrong but I’m fully prepared for a Trump win.

I also think the US is on the verge of civil war. A country full of scared and angry gun nuts who have been fed all sorts of ridiculous lies about the democrats.

A channel 4 piece recently was in America and the gun shop owner was showing off his empty shelves explaining that people are “stocking up.”

If Biden wins I think it could all kick off.

I suspect most of the gun nuts wouldn't leave their basements and laptops if virginity was declared illegal, so long as groceries were still delivered. The numbers who actually go outside on a demo are tiny compared to BLM or whatever. I'm hoping that the polls are too consistent for them to be wrong this time, and that the pollsters are being so wary of getting it wrong again that they're understating Biden's lead. Then again I was convinced until the day before that rationality would prevail with Brexit, 2016 in America, and a few others since the world went mad. 

Edited by welshbairn

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7 hours ago, GordonS said:

Surely not Curtice? It's pretty ridiculous to say Trump doesn't have a chance. 

No, an American gentleman. He doesn't use polls to predict it, but other indicators like economic stats and stuff. 

Edited by Academically Deficient
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Pennsylvania & Florida are the keys. If Trump can convince enough blue collar workers in Pa that Biden wants to shut down the oil industry and scare enough fat, old whiteys in Fl that BLM and/or socialised medicine are an existential threat, that's his path to victory. 

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Didn't think Trump would be in with a realistic chance till i spoke with my boss yesterday. An intelligent, hard working and really nice guy who told me he'd voted for Trump as he can't see how Biden can help the economy and deal with China. To hear someone like him say he's voting for Trump even though he doesn't like him and hates what he's done to the country in terms of diversity shows just how torn some 'sensible' people must be.

Still think Biden will win and if it is comfortable then i can't see much challenge in terms of not accepting the result. The GOP has enough damage repair to try and get on with for 2024 if they get beaten without actually challenging the actual democratic process more than they already have done

 

Edited by EdinburghPar1975

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Is there any possibility of Trump could nominally “win” the electoral college, but have it swung by a couple of faithless voters going Biden instead?

Think that, if possible, would be the funniest outcome.

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4 hours ago, Arabdownunder said:

Pennsylvania & Florida are the keys. If Trump can convince enough blue collar workers in Pa that Biden wants to shut down the oil industry and scare enough fat, old whiteys in Fl that BLM and/or socialised medicine are an existential threat, that's his path to victory. 

Any two from about half a dozen states will swing it for Biden. Because of the electoral college, 95% of Americans’ votes don’t matter, and a whole chunk don’t even count. 

Edited by Savage Henry

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Some Prof on the BBC there. Correctly predicted every US Prez election since 1984. Says Biden can't lose. Trump lost it in the past couple of months due to the Covid response and subsequent economic impact.

He explained his methodology, but to be honest, I'm not the sharpest. Sounded kosher at the time.

 

Think nobody prominent wants to predict a landslide for fear of being owned again but I don’t think Biden loses unless there’s serious shenanigans.

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33 minutes ago, oneteaminglasgow said:

Is there any possibility of Trump could nominally “win” the electoral college, but have it swung by a couple of faithless voters going Biden instead?

Think that, if possible, would be the funniest outcome.

Definitely, if one of the candidates wins by a narrow victory, there's potential for something like that to cause an absolute shitfest and cause a constitutional crisis that would very likely see the election flipped. There were 10 in 2016 and cases still going through the court system at the current moment, there's obviously not that kind of time and a $1k fine isn't going to be a huge deterrent in itself.

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