DeeTillEhDeh Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 Popular vote split - 48-48 Electoral College split - Reps 310-221 Dems Specific states - Dems add New Hampshire, Reps add Minnesota Wild card - Reps add Nevada Polls aside most indicators point to a Reps win. The enthusiasm gap, the primary results, registrations, large shy Trump vote, Dems not hitting the early voting numbers they are banking on, eye test on yard signage, meek Dem campaigning. Polling methodology is not capturing a balanced sample. Put your money on Reps before the odds shorten.Hi Banana. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Benjamin_Nevis Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 15 minutes ago, DeeTillEhDeh said: 43 minutes ago, willis said: Popular vote split - 48-48 Electoral College split - Reps 310-221 Dems Specific states - Dems add New Hampshire, Reps add Minnesota Wild card - Reps add Nevada Polls aside most indicators point to a Reps win. The enthusiasm gap, the primary results, registrations, large shy Trump vote, Dems not hitting the early voting numbers they are banking on, eye test on yard signage, meek Dem campaigning. Polling methodology is not capturing a balanced sample. Put your money on Reps before the odds shorten. Hi Banana. It can't be. He hasn't posted anything rapey yet. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GordonS Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 1 hour ago, willis said: Popular vote split - 48-48 Electoral College split - Reps 310-221 Dems Specific states - Dems add New Hampshire, Reps add Minnesota Wild card - Reps add Nevada Polls aside most indicators point to a Reps win. The enthusiasm gap, the primary results, registrations, large shy Trump vote, Dems not hitting the early voting numbers they are banking on, eye test on yard signage, meek Dem campaigning. Polling methodology is not capturing a balanced sample. Put your money on Reps before the odds shorten. If you think there's *any* chance of a tie in the popular vote, I have some magic beans to sell you. How much money have you got on Trump to win? Putting yard signs ahead of polls is hilarious, thanks for that. Reminds me of Yes windows. Could you expand on specifically how the polling methodology- across the board - is sufficiently flawed to close a nine point gap? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GordonS Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 12 hours ago, ThatBoyRonaldo said: Was looking at the number of votes each state has just there. I know there's been patter about Texas shifting demographically for years now, but if it ever became a reliably blue state the democrats would really have a phenomenal advantage, when you consider that Texas, California, New York and Illinois have 142 electoral votes between them - if you can put them all in the blue column from the get go it's a hell of a head start. I'm sure they'd still manage to f**k it up somehow right enough. It's a bit like California, which voted Republican in 9 out of 10 elections between 1952 and 1988 (the only one the Democrats won was when uber racist Goldwater was the Republican candidate). Of those 9 elections, the Democrats only took the White House twice - Kennedy beating Nixon and Carter beating Ford. In both of those the Democrats won Texas and much of the south. California is socially liberal but fiscally it's pretty conservative. As Republicans have become less about middle class incomes and more about identity, they've lost those educated, progressive voters. Race is obviously a huge part, maybe the biggest element - in 1980 California was 66% non-Hispanic white; now it's 40% non-Hispanic white, 38% Hispanic and 13% Asian. Texas is now pretty similar. If the Republicans can't count on Texas and California, they're either going to have to change their platform to become more liberal, or to appeal even more to low income whites in the Midwest. They could become a rural and low income party and as long as they can win Florida, New Hampshire and the whole Midwest except Illinois, they can still win without Texas and Arizona. They'd also have 29-30 states so could lock up the Senate. Assuming Trump loses they're going to have a lot of soul searching. The ones that actually have souls, obviously. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
carpetmonster Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 7 hours ago, Day of the Lords said: It can't be. He hasn't posted anything rapey yet. Mentions Trump, is he not rapey enough? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SandyCromarty Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 9 hours ago, Stan Hope said: Mexicans and a lot of Californian are leaving because large parts of it are a fuckin shithole and/or expensive as f**k, Texas seems to be a top destination, if the trend continues the state may well turn colour. California is virtually two states, NoCal and SoCal. SoCal is full of Fruitcakes with LA being Central Nutjob. NoCal tends to be more stable, (not always though). 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Granny Danger Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 What sort of sad, pathetic nut job joins a forum purely to post pro-Trump shite? It’s a sad indictment of the downside of social media. -1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry94 Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 15 hours ago, welshbairn said: I still don't understand how Biden ended up on top of the Democrat pile, other than that part of his history might appeal to some of the more flexible of Trump's white power constituency, along with his supposedly working class roots. There were alternatives who wouldn't scare the wavering independents too much with socialistic thinkings goddammity, but they were all female, and one of them black. Buttigieg was obviously a no no, despite his GOP light vibe. Maybe I've just explained it. His seniority gives legitimacy, he was in the senate for 36 years and was quite a visible (as opposed to some who are just hidden in a back room) VP for 8. His whole career has genuinely been him sitting in the middle of the party economically and foreign relations whilst pushing social policy. He's never really made enemies of either wing of the party. Buttigeg was a mayor and starting low down the pile, he did very well considering that but was going to struggle to be seen as legitimate, similar to Beto who briefly ran. Klobuchar not overly inspiring and spent her career navigating Republican territory aggressively to the point of pissing off the rest of the party. Bloomberg just a billionaire throwing money at being liked. Sanders, Warren and Gabbard defined as a wing of the party that is growing but not yet seen as palatable yet. In retrospect, I think it was only really going to be Biden or Harris and Biden did a better job at getting to the voters Harris needed. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NotThePars Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 Assuming Harris is a shoe-in for 2024 is what I’m most uncertain about because she is all smoke and mirrors outside of the identity indicators. Given how large the field was for these primaries and given how a lot of these people are I think you’ll see renewed runs from quite a few figures by 2024. Getting owned so heavily by Gabbard of all people that you drop out before a vote is cast, struggling to overcome a visibly demonic Mike Pence, and openly wilting under any sort of pressure from the media isn’t going to inspire any confidence outside of the dedicated K-hive psychos. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 25 minutes ago, harry94 said: His seniority gives legitimacy, he was in the senate for 36 years and was quite a visible (as opposed to some who are just hidden in a back room) VP for 8. His whole career has genuinely been him sitting in the middle of the party economically and foreign relations whilst pushing social policy. He's never really made enemies of either wing of the party. Buttigeg was a mayor and starting low down the pile, he did very well considering that but was going to struggle to be seen as legitimate, similar to Beto who briefly ran. Klobuchar not overly inspiring and spent her career navigating Republican territory aggressively to the point of pissing off the rest of the party. Bloomberg just a billionaire throwing money at being liked. Sanders, Warren and Gabbard defined as a wing of the party that is growing but not yet seen as palatable yet. In retrospect, I think it was only really going to be Biden or Harris and Biden did a better job at getting to the voters Harris needed. Maybe so, but he's always been gaffe prone, and now he's clearly past it. It takes him a week of prep work just to survive a debate with a moron like Trump. When he tries going off the cuff he forgets what he was going to say mid sentence. I just hope he hides out of the way until Nov 4th. I think the Dems should have limited their primaries candidates to 3 or 4, let them have proper debates instead of 10 second soundbites each, and sort the wheat from the chaff. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GordonS Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 We're wondering how Joe Biden became a candidate in a country that elected Donald Trump??? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Benjamin_Nevis Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 What sort of sad, pathetic nut job joins a forum purely to post pro-Trump shite? It’s a sad indictment of the downside of social media.I'm guessing it's Swampy again. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SandyCromarty Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 7 minutes ago, Stan Hope said: still leaving both areas though, fires, high taxes, cost of living, politics, traffic, meth {but that's everywhere to be fair} And the title for the most Porsche cars ever bought goes to California. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Florentine_Pogen Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 On 26/10/2020 at 20:27, GordonS said: In the vast majority of states, if you win it by 1 vote you get all the electoral college votes. In Nebraska and Maine you get two electoral college votes for winning the state, and then another for each of the state's Congressional districts that you win. Nebraska has 3 and Maine has 2. It's not PR though, if you win each of the 3 districts in Nebraska by a single vote you get all 5 electoral college votes. In case you don't know, the electoral college is an actual meeting fo 538 people in Washington in December. The states give the winning party the right to appoint the relevant number of representatives, and they go off and actually elect the President. Some are required by state law to vote for the winning candidate, but reps from some states can, and do, vote for someone else (they're known as faithless voters). Last time everyone from Ron Paul to Bernie Saunders got a vote from some nutjobs. It's a weird country. It certainly is. https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/ng-interactive/2020/oct/28/electoral-college-explained-how-biden-faces-an-uphill-battle-in-the-us-election 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
D Angelo Barksdale Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 Predictions are Biden to win, but it'll be closer than the current polling. Trouble involving Proud Boys/patriots/militia at polling stations. Donny to throw a tantrum, threaten legal action, before backing down. Dem's biggest legislative priority to make it law that the President has to file tax returns and state all previous business with Russia. Pelosi to do an epic clapback on Mitch McConnell, which will be worth not having healthcare. Given the Lincoln Project type folk involved, I'd expect the Biden administration to operate a bawhair to the left of the W.Bush one. Wildcard: Biden dies before 2022. Harris is wildly unpopular and out of her depth. QAnon becomes big part of the GOP Tea party style and wins control of the party. Tom Cotton and Don Jr are the 2024 ticket and win. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeeTillEhDeh Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 When you don't even trust your own wife to vote for you.[emoji1787][emoji1787][emoji1787] 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheGoon Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 Much less confident about a Biden victory at this point as I thought I would be. Feel like we’re headed towards a situation where Trump starts celebrating victory before all the postal votes are in, and then just refuses to acknowledge their validity. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 12 minutes ago, DeeTillEhDeh said: When you don't even trust your own wife to vote for you. From 2016, that one. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeeTillEhDeh Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 From 2016, that one. Did he do the same this time? [emoji16] 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 2 minutes ago, DeeTillEhDeh said: Did he do the same this time? Probably, but in Florida this time. Haven't seen any photos but I doubt the colours will match. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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