Granny Danger Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 3 hours ago, DeeTillEhDeh said: Biden to win Popular Vote - 52-45 Biden to win Electoral College 341-197 States - see map below. Can’t be arsed doing this myself but I reckon that’s likely to be closer than many of the predictions on here. Looking at the polling, which has increased in sophistication, the early voting and the shift in certain demographics I reckon Biden will win this by a decent margin. Whilst it will not impact on this election I reckon Texas is changing and other more solid red states will be much tighter than 2016. -1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arabdownunder Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 Trump initially refuses to accept the result but then makes a deal with Biden where he gets a pardon for any and all crimes and misdemeanours. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Granny Danger Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 5 minutes ago, Arabdownunder said: Trump initially refuses to accept the result but then makes a deal with Biden where he gets a pardon for any and all crimes and misdemeanours. That has been suggested in some quarters already, it won’t happen. In addition a Presidential pardon only covers federal crimes, Trump has as much to worry about at state level. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Adamski Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 Biden to win, but by nowhere near as much as most of the prediction sites are currently forecasting. I'm almost frightened to type it at the risk of jinxing the whole thing. (I was way too bullish about Remain and Clinton in 2016, and it came back to make me look silly on social media.) I'll got for 285-253 Biden, or thereabouts. And notwithstanding dirty tricks from the republicans. My dream scenario has the whole thing wrapped up in the small hours of 4th November rather than dragging on with legal challenges and suchlike for days/weeks. After four years of this clown and 2020 being what it has been I feel that the world has earned its air-punching, Death Star exploding moment. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMMjag Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 Somewhere between 'very comfortable' and 'landslide' for Biden. Democrats to take the Senate. Depending on the extent of the defeat, I'd expect the GOP to converge on some kind of middle ground where moderate reformists (read: snakes who are uneasy with Trump but are scared of getting bashed on twitter) contest for 2024. I would predict a said snake like Nikki Haley for their next nomination - Biden probably won't stand a second term due to being either dead or close to it, but this would give him the most trouble if he did. Trump himself will be left broke and divorced by the summer before tweeting the N word and being cut off from the Presidential gravy train. -1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GordonS Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 Bear in mind that the last two Republican candidates were relatively decent people and neither even voted for Trump. The last three elections have seen the largest numbers of votes any candidates have received (not share of the vote, obviously), and they went to Obama and Clinton. Republicans have won the popular vote just once in 7 elections, and are extremely unlikely to avoid making that 8. The Republicans haven't had a landslide win since 1988 while Democrats have had 4 since then. But for a handful of votes in three states, Trump would have lost. The country is getting less white and more educated, and the boomers are dying out. A hefty defeat for Trump - who would be the first President not to win re-election since 1992 and the second Republican since the last Democrat in 1980 - could cause some serious soul-searching in the party. That's particularly true if they lose the Senate and are thrashed in the House. Might they finally try to distance themselves from the bampot right and win in the middle again? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thereisalight.. Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 I don’t think there’s any chance Trump will be elected again. The news channels seem adamant to spin how close it will be, but Biden will win convincingly imo 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arabdownunder Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 1 hour ago, Granny Danger said: That has been suggested in some quarters already, it won’t happen. In addition a Presidential pardon only covers federal crimes, Trump has as much to worry about at state level. I know Biden has said it won't happen but that could change if he's faced with a choice between a "normal" transition and the result being litigated through the courts while the proud boys are standing by. His state crimes are mostly financial shenanigans and dealing with that stuff has been Trump's business as usual for years. Employ shifty lawyers to delay and obfuscate, make a deal to pay some back taxes using income from a shonky business venture built with borrowed money, claim the lot as a tax deduction, rinse and repeat. Rich white guys very rarely go to jail for white collar crimes. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GordonS Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 (edited) https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2020/10/barrett-election-bush-v-gore-vengeance.html On the other hand, two of Barrett's first cases will probably be to rule on late ballots in Pennsylvania and North Carolina. It would be wrong for the Supreme Court to supplant the state supreme courts on interpretation of state law, and doubly wrong to re-hear a previous case solely because the make-up of the bench is suddenly kinder to the losing side. If she rules them inadmissible and as a result Trump wins, there will have been a coup d'etat in the United States. This is what the second amendment was supposed to be for. FWIW I really disagree with accepting late ballots, but that's the law. Edited October 27, 2020 by GordonS 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Benjamin_Nevis Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 I think (and hope) Biden utterly thrashes Trump. The knowledge that a massive chunk of the american population rejected him outright will hurt him to the core, given his absolute obsession with popularity. If the Democrats take the senate and house that would be even better. Pleasing bonuses would include a stress-related heart attack for Wotsit boy, preferably as a result of finding out he's getting f**k all of a pardon and will have his taxes, business practices and dealings as president fully investigated and exposed. The Proud Boys or some other group of far-right virgins with guns kicking off and being firmly slapped into place by the Army/Police would also be tremendous viewing. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EdinburghPar1975 Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 I had completely forgotten that he had full executive powers till early Feb next year even if he loses - could see some serious craziness between next week and then if he gets pumped. It will be interesting to see if there is any assistance with transition post the election and also just how many records, files and information disappears before the new team get into the White House 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Granny Danger Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 1 hour ago, Day of the Lords said: I think (and hope) Biden utterly thrashes Trump. The knowledge that a massive chunk of the american population rejected him outright will hurt him to the core, given his absolute obsession with popularity. If the Democrats take the senate and house that would be even better. Pleasing bonuses would include a stress-related heart attack for Wotsit boy, preferably as a result of finding out he's getting f**k all of a pardon and will have his taxes, business practices and dealings as president fully investigated and exposed. The Proud Boys or some other group of far-right virgins with guns kicking off and being firmly slapped into place by the Army/Police would also be tremendous viewing. Read a bit the other day (Guardian or Independent) saying a slightly larger number of Democrats than Republicans will refuse to accept the result if their guy loses and a slightly higher number would also take part in protests in that scenario. Probably less chance of them being armed with automatic assault weapons tbf. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry94 Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 1 minute ago, Granny Danger said: Read a bit the other day (Guardian or Independent) saying a slightly larger number of Democrats than Republicans will refuse to accept the result if their guy loses and a slightly higher number would also take part in protests in that scenario. Probably less chance of them being armed with automatic assault weapons tbf. And having access to the food and the water infrastructure supporting the nation. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zidane's child Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 Has Trump got a Cambridge Analytica type tech partner this time round to harvest Facebook user data profiles? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 Just now, zidane's child said: Has Trump got a Cambridge Analytica type tech partner this time round to harvest Facebook user data profiles? I expect Biden has too. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SandyCromarty Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 As I keep saying I cannot believe anyone could take this election serious as both of them are fuckin clowns. Daft Donald making out Covid is a piece of piss. And now Biden thinks he's running against George Bush in 'We need to get George out of the White House'. What a fuckin joke. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SANTAN Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 48 minutes ago, welshbairn said: I expect Biden has too. If they're good enough for the SNP. -1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GordonS Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 1 hour ago, Granny Danger said: Read a bit the other day (Guardian or Independent) saying a slightly larger number of Democrats than Republicans will refuse to accept the result if their guy loses and a slightly higher number would also take part in protests in that scenario. Probably less chance of them being armed with automatic assault weapons tbf. It makes sense that larger numbers of Democrats than Republicans would refuse to accept a defeat given that the polls are hugely in favour of Biden so it would be difficult to believe they lost fair and square, and because the voter suppression is aimed at Democrats. But as you say, the difference is that Democrats would march and protest, with a handful dabbling in arson and vandalism. Republicans would put armed men around the White House to protect their glorious leader. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NotThePars Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 Bear in mind that the last two Republican candidates were relatively decent people and neither even voted for Trump.John McCain is in no universe a relatively decent person. A horrible little hawk and it’s good that he’s dead. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Granny Danger Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 If the Democrats win the WH and the Senate they must use the opportunity to make changes to how future Presidents and Senators are elected. A more representative system would serve the Democrats well for generations to come. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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