The US Presidential election prediction thread

[John Lambies Doos]

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[Jeff Venom]

I quite enjoy the idea that Trump blowing the lid off of the satanic paedo ring which is going to happen *checks watch* any time now which the QAnon and Maga nuts relish in, included Trump going deep undercover 25 years ago on an evidence gathering mission by making friends and hanging out with an actual nonce and his enabler so that he may expose it to the world roughly around the time of the 2020 election being stolen from him, and was absolutely nothing to do with rich narcissitic goons with untouchable complexes networking.

[welshbairn]

Here's the American definition, I'd say he ticks most of the boxes aspirationally at least, and it embodies the leaders he most admires. Maybe not so much the regimentation of society.

[Gordon EF]

45 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

I don't get what's inaccurate about calling Trump a fascist. 

I'd imagine it's because fascism is basically a fairly well-defined overlapping set of political viewpoints, characteristics and aims. So if someone shares some of those traits but is missing one or more fairly critical ones, it's a fair point to say 'well they're not actually a fascist'.

Being authoritarian doesn't make someone a fascist the same way being anti-semitic doesn't make someone a Nazi.

It's a largely pointless debate though.

[101]

2 hours ago, Gordon EF said:

To me there's a real argument that Democrats and liberals in the US continue to be set up with open goals and are still doing their absolute best to sky them all over the bar. Calling Trump and Trump supporters Nazis and fascists is utterly pointless. There's so much talk about how troubling it is that 74 million people voted for Trump with the implication being that the Democrats really need to be taking a good 5-10 million of them, at least, away from Trump and the 'America First' face of the Republican party. To do that, you can't still keep attacking anyone who supported Trump in November. You can't get Republicans who're basically saying "Yeah, fair enough the last few weeks have opened my eyes to what he really is" and then shout at them that they don't get to change their minds because they're racist Nazis for voting Trump in November.

This is a strategy that not only just doesn't make any sense from any logical point of view but has been disastrous in the US and the UK over the past 5 years.

I was speaking to my friend from MN and her dad is a paid up believer in MAGA although after the riot/ break in to the capitol building he did say trump was a bad person. So I think there are voters out there you can convince if you make the country a better place. She is certain if they could abolish private healthcare in the first term that he would vote Dem in the next election. He was really worried about "socialism" which of course is completely irrational as he didn't understand that Tax would only be raised on the wealthy. I think it is baby steps these aren't that stupid people but he's on the breadline and very easily sold scare stories. His wife on the other hand has been lost to QAnon and is a list cause. However I don't believe there are more than a few million Americans that are a lost cause if Biden can double the minimum wage, roll out state funded health care and increase tax on the rich then the Democrats will be in a strong position come 2024.

[Carnoustie Young Guvnor]

2 hours ago, NotThePars said:

That's what partially underpinned a lot of the hysteria in November. What most of those people failed to realise is that Bush and co had to steal one close run state and had a competent set up to accomplish it whereas Trump had to steal multiple states with big margins and had Rudy Giuliani and a drunk woman.

Aye at least it was tight and only one state. But people should remember that Gore did win that election and it was stolen from him, that's what happened.

[Savage Henry]

3 hours ago, welshbairn said:

Trump's popularity amongst Republicans has already dropped by 20%. I'm hoping that a bipartisan impeachment procedure calmly going through the timeline of his tweets and speeches from before the election through to his behaviour during the attack as witnesses are questioned under oath, will drop it further. If not that, there is bound to be an in depth enquiry covering all aspects of it, including refusing to take calls asking for emergency authorisation for help at the Capitol during the attack.

Buyers’ remorse.   Still, those numbers make the actions of the more senior GOP stalwarts absolutely bewildering.  They’ve sold out everything for four years of toadying up to Trump.  Marjorie Taylor Greene, disappearing servers, pizzagate, corporate censorship and Hunter Biden’s crimes is about the level of the Republican Party.  

 

[Carnoustie Young Guvnor]

38 minutes ago, 101 said:

I was speaking to my friend from MN and her dad is a paid up believer in MAGA although after the riot/ break in to the capitol building he did say trump was a bad person. So I think there are voters out there you can convince if you make the country a better place. She is certain if they could abolish private healthcare in the first term that he would vote Dem in the next election. He was really worried about "socialism" which of course is completely irrational as he didn't understand that Tax would only be raised on the wealthy. I think it is baby steps these aren't that stupid people but he's on the breadline and very easily sold scare stories. His wife on the other hand has been lost to QAnon and is a list cause. However I don't believe there are more than a few million Americans that are a lost cause if Biden can double the minimum wage, roll out state funded health care and increase tax on the rich then the Democrats will be in a strong position come 2024.

Aye but Biden isn't going to even attempt to do these things let alone manage it.  He's as progressive as my last fart.  A lot of people are going to be very disappointed.  Though he'll only serve one term.

And btw, wait till you see the shitstorm when a black woman is running in four years.  

[BFTD]

The Donald and quite a few of his followers are absolutely fascists. The thing that seems to be confusing some folk is that they're really shit at it. Donnie himself will never be a good fascist revolutionary because he's a massive coward who is both fascinated by (and afraid of) the mob, so he doesn't dare come out and demand a full-bore assault on the government. The most he can do is make vague statements that he knows will be interpreted as a call to arms, but that he can back away from if it looks like he might actually be held responsible. Most of his fans are utter fannies who want revolution but don't have the slightest idea how to go about it.

The worry in the coming years is that somebody with a backbone tries and manages to bring together the different militia groups who've been calling/hoping for the overthrow of the government for decades, for a variety of different reasons.

[Gordon EF]

26 minutes ago, Carnoustie Young Guvnor said:

And btw, wait till you see the shitstorm when a black woman is running in four years.  

Shit storm of what? In three of the last four US presidential elections, the majority of voters have either voted for a black man or white woman (the only exception being when two white men competed). Everyone who's likely to go "Hang on a minute black and a woman?! That's going too far" is already not voting for black or female candidates.

In literally every election where they've had that binary choice, the majority of Americans have voted for a black candidate over a white candidate and a female candidate over a male candidate.

Edited January 14, 2021 by Gordon EF

[Carnoustie Young Guvnor]

9 minutes ago, Gordon EF said:

Shit storm of what? In three of the last four US presidential elections, the majority of voters have either voted for a black man or white woman (the only exception being when two white men competed). Everyone who's likely to go "Hang on a minute black and a woman?! That's going too far" is already not voting for black or female candidates.

In literally every election where they've had that binary choice, the majority of Americans have voted for a black candidate over a white candidate and a female candidate over a male candidate.

Easy tiger and try to understand what I said.

I mean when a black woman is the democratic nominee that's going to bring out the very worst of the racist misogynist wing of the Republican party, and if by some miracle its Trump running that will focus all of their ire and hatred and bring together the worst elements of that society to target her.  Meaning its going to be extremely messy and very poisonous. 

I made no comment about the voters.

[DiegoDiego]

I was living with some Americans at the time of Trump's election and their main argument against him was that he was too old. I seem to remember they weren't the only ones taking that stance. Strangely enough, neither of them were worried about Biden's age when they were backing him for the nomination.

[Gordon EF]

13 minutes ago, Carnoustie Young Guvnor said:

Easy tiger and try to understand what I said.

I mean when a black woman is the democratic nominee that's going to bring out the very worst of the racist misogynist wing of the Republican party, and if by some miracle its Trump running that will focus all of their ire and hatred and bring together the worst elements of that society to target her.  Meaning its going to be extremely messy and very poisonous. 

I made no comment about the voters.

Aye but I think you're over-estimating how important intersectionality is to bigots.

If they're not rioting in the streets when black men and white women run, I really don't think a black woman running will be what sets them off. The point I was making about previous elections is to highlight that there really wasn't much significant "shit storms" about it previously.

Edited January 14, 2021 by Gordon EF

[Carnoustie Young Guvnor]

1 minute ago, Gordon EF said:

Aye but I think you're over-estimating how important intersectionality is to bigots.

I don't think so. Can you imagine everything that has happened the past two months if it was a black woman going to be in the White House instead of a white man?  The campaign will be the most toxic there's ever been.

[Gordon EF]

Just now, Carnoustie Young Guvnor said:

I don't think so. Can you imagine everything that has happened the past two months if it was a black woman going to be in the White House instead of a white man?  The campaign will be the most toxic there's ever been.

I really don't imagine that you've got some gun-totting nutjob out there who was thinking to themselves that they'll just hold back a bit because at least Joe Biden's a white guy.

[Carnoustie Young Guvnor]

1 minute ago, Gordon EF said:

I really don't imagine that you've got some gun-totting nutjob out there who was thinking to themselves that they'll just hold back a bit because at least Joe Biden's a white guy.

No, but the ammunition it will give them is amplified and will be used to energise their base and drum up support.  It will take the level of toxicity to new levels as yet unseen.  Very real chance someone tries to kill her too, though these days virtually impossible.

[Shotgun]

2 hours ago, Gordon EF said:

Thanks for making my point for me.

You're acting like an old firm fan. You're only focussed what the other side did and why they're dicks. Well they did it so we're allowed to. Most folk without a dog in the fight think old firm fans are arse holes. If it gives you more satisfaction seeing Democrats call Republicans names than getting a few of them to change the way they vote, then enjoy it. All I'm saying is don't imagine it's going to be particularly effective.

I'm polite and respectful to everyone I meet...until they give me reason not to be. The amount of threats and abuse I've received, both online and in person simply because I'm not a Republican would make mother Teresa pick up a baseball bat and after being on the wrong end for years, I make no apologies for giving it right back to them. 

Look, some of the 74 million who voted for Trump may have misjudged him the first time round. But they've had years and countless examples of what a sub-human c**t the man is. It would take hours to type out even a fraction of them. And yet they voted for him again. Not because the  mean liberals called them out on their shit but because they like what he said, they like what he did and they like the damage and division he has created. Very, very few of them would've voted for Biden no matter how meekly we liberals accepted their insults.

And if a deposed leader calling on an armed mob to storm the seat of government with the intent of nullifying a democratic election so he can remain in power doesn't qualify as Fascism, then I wonder what exactly Trump would have to do before we can call him what he really is.

[Gordon EF]

3 minutes ago, Carnoustie Young Guvnor said:

No, but the ammunition it will give them is amplified and will be used to energise their base and drum up support.  It will take the level of toxicity to new levels as yet unseen.  Very real chance someone tries to kill her too, though these days virtually impossible.

Appreciate that's what you think. I just think you're running wild with your imagination based on zero evidence.

[Carnoustie Young Guvnor]

Just now, Gordon EF said:

Appreciate that's what you think. I just think you're running wild with your imagination based on zero evidence.

Its a logical conclusion.  They're racists and misogynists, put a black woman up for president they will go wild, and the party will fan the flames to energise their base.  It will be very very messy and incredibly toxic.

[Shotgun]

9 minutes ago, Gordon EF said:

Appreciate that's what you think. I just think you're running wild with your imagination based on zero evidence.

Obama received an average of 30 death threats a day. These started when he was a junior senator and he's still getting them today. His wife and children have also been targeted. Yes, the majority of Americans voted him but it's ridiculous to discount the number of heavily armed white supremacists who would like nothing better than to see that "uppity nigger strung up from the nearest tree". That's a direct quote from a local restaurant owner here in rural Colorado. Business went up after he said it. These people are the ones Trump described as "very fine" and "very special." And he loves them.

Open your eyes. 

Edited January 14, 2021 by Shotgun