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The US Presidential election prediction thread


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6 hours ago, Michael W said:

There is a move towards making tech companies liable for content that they host (much to their annoyance), so it's no surprise that companies are starting to wash their hands of dodgy content. The days of putting their hands up and absolving themselves of blame by merely providing a service are soon to be over. 

Free speech is not a defence to attempted crimes such as incitement or conspiracy. 

That twat Jim Spence is advocating this on twitter. It would completely destroy the Internet imo. Every single thing you posted would need to be moderated within an inch of its life. Instant communication (on websites /apps) of the type we've become accustomed to would end instantly. 

I'm responsible for what I say on here. Not Div (edit: here is a bad example but ykwim) 

Edited by madwullie
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22 minutes ago, WATTOO said:

The Republicans made this problem and they should really own it, it was obvious to everyone that this guy was always going to go "rogue".

I get what you're saying but the repercussions could be very serious indeed.

What are the repercussions of not doing anything though? Why would he/they just not think - fair fucks, no punishment, let's try again. Appeasement doesn't work. 

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1 minute ago, madwullie said:

What are the repercussions of not doing anything though? Why would he/they just not think - fair fucks, no punishment, let's try again. Appeasement doesn't work. 

It's an unenviable position that's for sure, damned if they do, damned if they don't.

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25 minutes ago, WATTOO said:

The Republicans made this problem and they should really own it, it was obvious to everyone that this guy was always going to go "rogue".

I get what you're saying but the repercussions could be very serious indeed.

They’re not going to though, so then what?

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12 minutes ago, madwullie said:

What are the repercussions of not doing anything though? Why would he/they just not think - fair fucks, no punishment, let's try again. Appeasement doesn't work. 

This.  Whatever the implications of taking action that may lead to further partisanship it won’t be worse than allowing insurrectionists and their political protagonists to believe their actions have no consequences.

Short term pain will be a better option than long term problems.

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1 hour ago, charger29 said:

I've always been interested in the NSA since the Snowden leaks a few years ago (reading his book just now). The senate/house really should be bringing in everyone high up in the NSA to find out exactly what information was given to whom.
There's no doubt they had all of the information on death threats, hostages, bombs beforehand. They would have had automated keyword searches scouring the internet for these exact words. Even if those typing the messages were hiding their identity and location, a general understanding of what was about to happen could have been spotted by a blind man.
Whoever in the chain of command between the NSA and FBI said, "Nah. No need to pass this along to my boss." should be out on there arse within a matter of weeks.
 

Put it this way, I was seeing tweets at least a week before from BLM and Antifa organisers exhorting everyone to stay well away and leave this one to law enforcement. They knew that this was going to be a particularly bad protest and that the likelihood of violence was high. It's pretty remarkable that there were no counter protestors at all - because they knew this was going to be very ugly.

Yet there were no reinforcements for the Capitol Police, as there had been at previous protests.

Law enforcement agencies knew, and they were either deeply complacent or complicit.

Edited by GordonS
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45 minutes ago, WATTOO said:

The Republicans made this problem and they should really own it, it was obvious to everyone that this guy was always going to go "rogue".

I get what you're saying but the repercussions could be very serious indeed.

45% of Republicans support the storming fo the Capitol, with 43% opposed. More Republicans blame Biden for the trouble than blame Trump. No Republican can win the nomination without the support of these fruit loops, so no leading Republicans will do the tiniest thing to oppose them.

Republicans are riding a monster and unless we get lucky it's going to devour them.

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30 minutes ago, madwullie said:

That twat Jim Spence is advocating this on twitter. It would completely destroy the Internet imo. Every single thing you posted would need to be moderated within an inch of its life. Instant communication (on websites /apps) of the type we've become accustomed to would end instantly. 

I'm responsible for what I say on here. Not Div (edit: here is a bad example but ykwim) 

We need to find a middle ground where platforms are responsible for having mechanisms to effectively deal with hate speech, threats and, y'know, folk organising the overthrow of democracies.

But lawmakers still have a poor understanding of the internet and they see regulation of it in terms of things that pre-existed it. They don't understand that is has fundamentally changed the landscape and that laws on speech, defamation, copyright, privacy etc no longer work effectively.

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7 minutes ago, GordonS said:

Put it this way, I was seeing tweets at least a week before from BLM and Antifa organisers exhorting everyone to stay well away and leave this one to law enforcement. They knew that this was going to be a particularly bad protest and that the likelihood of violence was high. It's pretty remarkable that there were no counter protestors at all - because they knew this was going to be very ugly.

Yet there were no reinforcements for the Capitol Police, as there had been at previous protests.

Law enforcement agencies knew, and they were either deeply complacent or complicit.

https://www.npr.org/2021/01/11/955548910/ex-capitol-police-chief-rebuffs-claims-national-guard-was-never-called-during-ri?utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=politics&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_term=nprnews&t=1610389827112

 

 

Worth remembering Trump fired and replaced all the top civilian people at the Pentagon right after the election loss.  This was planned, it was genuinely a coup attempt.

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59 minutes ago, WATTOO said:

The Republicans made this problem and they should really own it, it was obvious to everyone that this guy was always going to go "rogue"...

Charlotte in 2017 when proto-fascist street thug type politics surfaced in a big way should have been what made it obvious to them that things were heading towards a 1930s sort of scenario and that they should distance themselves from Trump and his Il Duce routine pronto. Problem is that the US primary system makes even the most senior and long-serving politicians vulnerable to a grassroots populist insurgency, so they were all too scared to stick their head above the parapet.

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19 minutes ago, GordonS said:

45% of Republicans support the storming fo the Capitol, with 43% opposed. More Republicans blame Biden for the trouble than blame Trump. No Republican can win the nomination without the support of these fruit loops, so no leading Republicans will do the tiniest thing to oppose them.

Republicans are riding a monster and unless we get lucky it's going to devour them.

That 45% in favour is a good sign, Trump usually got over 90% support. It will be interesting if Trumpy support drops away more as the details mount about the planning and instigation of what happened, through court cases and inquiries.

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52 minutes ago, madwullie said:

That twat Jim Spence is advocating this on twitter. It would completely destroy the Internet imo. Every single thing you posted would need to be moderated within an inch of its life. Instant communication (on websites /apps) of the type we've become accustomed to would end instantly. 

I'm responsible for what I say on here. Not Div (edit: here is a bad example but ykwim) 

It's a tough one. Don't moderate the content and/or remove it and something happens, you've facilitated an action even if you're not criminally liable for it. Eventually, action will be taken against you if you're not removing content quickly enough 

You can't really compare the olden days to now, but in the past anyone wanting to storm the Capitol would've had to communicate and hold a public event, hope a crowd turned up and then incite whatever they wanted to incite. Now, the audience is on hand to whenever tweets are sent . It's so much easier now to organise and mobilise; minimal effort is required. I don't think we've quite appreciated that as much as we should've. 

There's a free speech angle as well where we end up down a bit of a rabbit hole. Trump, despite what he is, is still for now the President of the US and I don't think they should really be silencing him when there's plenty other horrible people on Twitter, including other world leaders using the platform to invite hatred amongst other things. It doesn't seem especially even-handed. It doesn't seem that these decisions should ultimately lie with unaccountable big tech. 

Then again... if we are going to make the platforms liable, anything objectionable has to be removed in the interests of the platform protecting itself, whatever the consequences of that may be. Difficult balancing act to juggle. 

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That twat Jim Spence is advocating this on twitter. It would completely destroy the Internet imo. Every single thing you posted would need to be moderated within an inch of its life. Instant communication (on websites /apps) of the type we've become accustomed to would end instantly. 
I'm responsible for what I say on here. Not Div (edit: here is a bad example but ykwim) 


If you and you alone were responsible for what you say on here they wouldn't need moderators.
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