The US Presidential election prediction thread

[DeeTillEhDeh]

Some of the pish being peddled last time around on Russia fixing the election was just a way to avoid admiting that Hilary Clinton was simply an unpopular candidate who failed to skewer Herr Drumpf effectively during debates despite all the material she had to work with, and was the mirror image of what we are seeing now. Reality is that only the wacky electoral college system and lots of voter suppression  is keeping the Republicans in the game and Arizona and Georgia flipping this time will soon be Texas for demographic reasons because America's white majority is remoreselessly ebbing away. By 2030 at the very latest it will be game over completely  for the GOP as currently constituted in federal politics.

More palatable for Nixon's southern strategy devotees to drone on about Dominion voting machines than face up to a future where the Rose Tico style diversity types  and purple-haired Admiral Holdo style SJWs that they hate have the numbers and they don't. It's the suede/denim secret police they have come for your uncool niece...

 

The election wasn't fixed but there certainly were serious attempts by the Russians to direct the narrative on social media. 

 

 

It was part of the wider Agentstvo Internet-Issledovaniy (Glavset) agenda to sow distrust in Western political and media organisations and to undermine the Russian political opposition and those in its neighbours who might pose a threat to the Russian sphere of influence.

 

The point of the interference is not to influence actual elections but to make people distrust traditionally trustworthy news sources.

 

It should be no surprise that Glavset are also closely linked to Russia Today.

 

 

 

[Fullerene]

38 minutes ago, MixuFruit said:

A Polish guy once got mad at me for saying Poland was in eastern Europe and not central Europe. I don't really get the problem but whatevs, central Europe if it upsets them.

The European part of Russia is larger than the next 19 countries combined.

[DeeTillEhDeh]

You do wonder how effective any Russian attempts to discredit western neoliberal media and politics were, compared to the output and policy outcomes of western neoliberal media and politics.

Some of it is clearly for consumption in Russia itself - discredit reputable media in the West means their own people are less likely to trust Western media sources.

 

Russian internet botting is as much about the narrative in Russia as it is in the countries they target.

 

[Adamski]

1 hour ago, MixuFruit said:

A Polish guy once got mad at me for saying Poland was in eastern Europe and not central Europe. I don't really get the problem but whatevs, central Europe if it upsets them.

 

1 hour ago, welshbairn said:

Nobody wants to be lumped in with the Bulgarians.

To complete that circle, I once got into an argument with a Bulgarian whose take on our corner of Europe was 'Scottish? English? Pah - same difference.'

[NotThePars]

39 minutes ago, DeeTillEhDeh said:

The election wasn't fixed but there certainly were serious attempts by the Russians to direct the narrative on social media.

 

 

Aye diddy attempts

[NotThePars]

4 minutes ago, Adamski said:

 

To complete that circle, I once got into an argument with a Bulgarian whose take on our corner of Europe was 'Scottish? English? Pah - same difference.'

He's correct.

[Arabdownunder]

One of Giuliani’s sons, who was at the madcap press conference, has Covid.

Need to narrow that down. The 4 seasons one or the hair dye running down the face one?

[DeeTillEhDeh]

Aye diddy attempts

In their St Petersburg building they have around a 1,000 paid bloggers and commenters - there are at least 4 other sites where they have bloggers based.

That isn't a diddy organisation - as I said, the purpose isn't to influence elections but to sow distrust in traditional media at home in Russia and abroad.

[DeeTillEhDeh]

One would hope they are tapping up this site for some blue riband shitposters. I am available, erudite, bereft of principle so just drop me a pm Vlad.

The pay starts at 25,000 rubles per month for a 40 hour week (about £250) but can go to 80,000 rubles per month (about £800) for those that work longer hours and who meet their bonus targets. They also get free meals.

It's not a great earner.

[Lofarl]

So that’s Don jr got the old China virus.  Perhaps he can sniff some of that Columbian smelling salts to make him feel better.

[welshbairn]

15 minutes ago, Lofarl said:

So that’s Don jr got the old China virus.  Perhaps he can sniff some of that Columbian smelling salts to make him feel better.

Hopefully Daddy's got a great new experimental invention to make him feel  A OK again in a jiffy!

[NotThePars]

In their St Petersburg building they have around a 1,000 paid bloggers and commenters - there are at least 4 other sites where they have bloggers based.

That isn't a diddy organisation - as I said, the purpose isn't to influence elections but to sow distrust in traditional media at home in Russia and abroad.

1000 bloggers and commentators would have to be comparable to Zac Snyder’s 300 if they wanted to make a dent in the level of insane shitposting that goes into any notable event in US politics

[Florentine_Pogen]

17 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

Hopefully Daddy's got a great new experimental invention to make him feel  A OK again in a jiffy!

"12 bottles of bleach please....."

[LongTimeLurker]

9 hours ago, aDONisSheep said:

It's an interesting narrative, that the candidate with the most votes is the 'unpopular one'.  

On the whole she was more poular than Trump  but, lost because of the archaic electoral college system, by some distance.

The flip side of this is that Trump is still popular, garnering more votes than just about any successful President in history (obviously not Biden).

I literally talked about the electoral college and voter suppression being the only thing keeping the Republicans in the game in the following paragraph and how by 2030 they will be toast because of demographic change. Did you bother reading the whole message before hitting reply?

Trump should have been road kill in 2016 after many of the things he said and did. The Democrats had fixed their primary process to ensure candidates favored by party bigwigs would win pretty much no matter what by having superdelegates. There was a mood for radical change in the electorate in 2016 rather than backing the establishment. They should have backed Bernie Sanders.

Edited November 21, 2020 by LongTimeLurker

[mike rankine]

IThe Democrats had fixed their primary process to ensure candidates favored by party bigwigs would win pretty much no matter what by having superdelegates. There was a mood for radical change in the electorate in 2016 rather than backing the establishment. They should have backed Bernie Sanders.

Those in the Democratic Party hierarchy who ensured Clinton was the candidate rather than Sanders didn't want radical change. Even in hindsight they will have been content with tolerating 4 years of Trump in order to "restore" the status quo with Biden.

[LongTimeLurker]

Wouldn't be proper to wish any misfortune on Joe Biden, but they are a heartbeat away from having President Kamala Harris now and that would be interesting to watch unfold because she is far left by US standards.

There has always been a suspicion that Bernie Sanders is a bit of a champagne socialist, so he wasn't necessarily as big a threat to the status quo as he was being portrayed.

[aDONisSheep]

3 hours ago, LongTimeLurker said:

I literally talked about the electoral college and voter suppression being the only thing keeping the Republicans in the game in the following paragraph and how by 2030 they will be toast because of demographic change. Did you bother reading the whole message before hitting reply?

Trump should have been road kill in 2016 after many of the things he said and did. The Democrats had fixed their primary process to ensure candidates favored by party bigwigs would win pretty much no matter what by having superdelegates. There was a mood for radical change in the electorate in 2016 rather than backing the establishment. They should have backed Bernie Sanders.

Whilst I agree entirely with the sentiment.  Sanders wouldn't have beaten Trump either. 

In the eyes of many in the electorate Trump had lots going for him.

1.  He wasn't seen as a politician

2. He had simple messages that appealed to enough people who felt let down, by successive governments.

3. He lied without conscience.

What we on the left often get wrong is that we think that being 'right, is more important than it is.

But as Carville said, 'it's the economy, stupid.'

Sewing division is easier than building consensus.  Remember Trump has more votes in 2020 than Obama 2008 (it's not even fucking close)!  Despite the ineptitude, despite the long term economic damage and national debt recklessness,  despite the racism, the weaponisation of public health, mass graves and tens of thousands dead, he has still received more votes than Obama. 

Why?  

That's easy, because before the pandemic, Americans were working and feeding their families.  Sure, it was short termism, and sure there was the racism and fundamental Christian appeal etc, but at the heart of it was the increased employment.

I am firmly of the belief, had it not been for the pandemic, he'd have won a second term, and how fucking sad does that make me feel!

Yours

aDONis

 

 

 

Edited November 21, 2020 by aDONisSheep

[aDONisSheep]

5 minutes ago, MixuFruit said:

Trump making medicines cheaper in revenge for them delaying vaccine news till after the election is hilarious.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/11/20/trump-drug-prices-overseas-438819

It's an ill wind...

[welshbairn]

Biden's 6 million votes ahead now, in case anyone had a bet on the popular vote margin.

[welshbairn]

9 minutes ago, MixuFruit said:

Is there anywhere you can open a book on the party of the winning candidate in 2024? I don't mean the actual specific candidate.

Can't find it but the odds would probably be something like 4/5 either party. Maybe Democrats would be slight favourites as the incumbent usually wins. If you mean actually opening a book that would be Betfair Exchange.

Edited November 21, 2020 by welshbairn